I fixed that for you
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PoliGAF 2015-2016 |OT3| If someone named PhoenixDark leaves your party, call the cops
- Thread starter Diablos
- Start date
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I fixed that for you
Aaron Strife
Banned
New ARG poll:
1) 2016 Iowa Republican Presidential Caucus
Asked of 400 likely voters - republican
Jeb Bush (R) 3%
Ben Carson (R) 7%
Chris Christie (R) 4%
Ted Cruz (R) 26%
Carly Fiorina (R) 1%
Jim Gilmore (R) 0%
Mike Huckabee (R) 2%
John Kasich (R) 3%
Rand Paul (R) 4%
Marco Rubio (R) 11%
Rick Santorum (R) 1%
Donald Trump (R) 33%
Other 1%
Undecided 5%
1) 2016 Iowa Democratic Presidential Caucus
Asked of 400 likely voters - democrat
Hillary Clinton (D) 45%
Martin O'Malley (D) 3%
Bernie Sanders (D) 48%
Undecided 4%
538 Forecasts TIGHTENING
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/iowa-republican/
1) 2016 Iowa Republican Presidential Caucus
Asked of 400 likely voters - republican
Jeb Bush (R) 3%
Ben Carson (R) 7%
Chris Christie (R) 4%
Ted Cruz (R) 26%
Carly Fiorina (R) 1%
Jim Gilmore (R) 0%
Mike Huckabee (R) 2%
John Kasich (R) 3%
Rand Paul (R) 4%
Marco Rubio (R) 11%
Rick Santorum (R) 1%
Donald Trump (R) 33%
Other 1%
Undecided 5%
1) 2016 Iowa Democratic Presidential Caucus
Asked of 400 likely voters - democrat
Hillary Clinton (D) 45%
Martin O'Malley (D) 3%
Bernie Sanders (D) 48%
Undecided 4%
538 Forecasts TIGHTENING
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/iowa-republican/
Well, there's worse options I suppose. On the bright side it'll finally get people to shut up about both sides being the same.
Cesare Borgia
Banned
I still think Cruz wins Iowa 5 points ahead of Trump. If this was a primary perhaps Trump could win.
Why run a campaign at all when everything will be overshadowed by that current day's Trumpism.
Let the GOP eat themselves, then she can go full steam.
Jesus, shut up, Diablos.
There are? I like Sanders -- but I don't think there's a less sane republican running atm.
RustyNails
Member
Yea I think Cruz is gonna deliver Iowa. The network of evangelicals and true believers is awoken.
What I meant was that any of the republicans would be worse.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
More like Sanders v Trump v Bloomberg results in President Trump.
Hobbestetrician
Member
This is how I feel about Clinton, I think she takes Iowa.
NYCmetsfan
Banned
Bernies and his supporters message seems to be wall street is bad in and of itself.
I could have more carefully worded my comment. I meant that Trump is a crazy person and there's no one crazier than him running as a republican.
Aaron Strife
Banned
If Bloomberg was elected, it would prove once and for all that the two sides are not the same, but the American people want someone who is the two sides.
NYCmetsfan
Banned
There are maybe 1% of Americans that think Marxism or the SA has any real relevance to American politics.
The things your discussing aren't even close to what Bernie is proposing.
I don't get to vote til June, yay California and irrelevant primaries.
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
Was anything Obama said about Sanders wrong? He acts like a single issue candidate, there's no denying that.
Atomic Playboy
Member
It boggles the mind that Iowa and New Hampshire have a greater impact on Presidential elections (from a primary perspective) than the state where 20% of the country lives.
disastermouse
Banned
They are the things that people on the right accuse Bernie of proposing.
And seriously, who cares if it only represents 1%? I don't see that as a valid reason to talk about it, especially under the circumstances that socialism is being discussed frequently in our debate today due to Bernie.
disastermouse
Banned
No, what it means is that your employment and your stock option ownership do not represent any sort of actionable 'ownership'. When you own a company, you have a say in how it's run. You are simply an employee (rented labor) being compensated partially by stock options. It does earn buy-in from you to do what you're told, but that relationship only runs one way. You can be liquidated tomorrow.
disastermouse
Banned
Worker ownership doesn't work the same way as employment, although it starts as employment - a trial period, so to speak. Worker owners can be voted against and booted, but it's the entire group of worker owners voting, not a small sector of management and assets need to be on hand to pay the worker who is leaving for their share of the venture. It works that way for people quitting too, which is why worker ownership doesn't need to be and probably shouldn't represent all of the labor force.
Basileus777
Member
Yep, that strategy makes no sense. If Trump wins Iowa and Cruz is weakened, that means Trump is winning SC and looking unstoppable heading into the SEC primary.
Joe Shlabotnik
Banned
MoE on that ARG poll is 5%. Clinton/Sanders is probably even steven. Trump/Cruz is somewhat within the MoE too.
The scary/amazing thing about Trump in that poll is his crosstabs are identical--he holds the same lead in every demographic as he does overall.
Clinton has a slight lead among "definite" voters and gets killed by "probable" voters, tied under party voters and getting killed by independents, etc.
The scary/amazing thing about Trump in that poll is his crosstabs are identical--he holds the same lead in every demographic as he does overall.
Clinton has a slight lead among "definite" voters and gets killed by "probable" voters, tied under party voters and getting killed by independents, etc.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
An interesting stat from the latest ARG poll! They decided to model for three different levels of turnout just to cover their options. When you consider definite voters, Clinton leads 48-46 (i.e., lowest case scenario for turnout). When you consider likely voters, Sanders leads 48-45 (i.e., what they expect turnout to be). When you consider probable voters, Sanders leads 55-35 (i.e., what would happen at historic turnout levels).
Iowa is going to be all about that ground game. If Sanders-Clinton have equal ground games, it'll be a Sanders win in the popular vote, loss in the delegates. If Clinton has a better ground game, she'll take both, if Sanders has a better ground game, he'll take both.
Iowa is going to be all about that ground game. If Sanders-Clinton have equal ground games, it'll be a Sanders win in the popular vote, loss in the delegates. If Clinton has a better ground game, she'll take both, if Sanders has a better ground game, he'll take both.
He already did that, he called the state a bunch of losers months ago. I'm sure he'll find a way to spin it that'll have everyone confused as to how it's even possible.
Not really.
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
Is that a good or bad thing for Sanders?
Supposedly Hillary has the gold standard this cycle while Bernie is trailing just behind her.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
We don't know yet. Clinton's side has better training and been in place longer, Sanders' has more manpower and wider spread. Depth vs. breadth, experience vs. enthusiasm.
Exciting!
Aaron Strife
Banned
I'm not even decided yet! Kind of had a debate with my friends about it who are all definite Bernie supporters.
I'll be honest, I supported Bernie more so because I didn't think a vote for him would go that far. If it's looking closer then I feel like my vote will have more of a consequence, which means I have to be more considerate.
Joe Shlabotnik
Banned
And Trump's ground game is anywhere from a secret fully operational battle station to a hot mess, depending on who you read, the time of day and planetary alignments.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
To be honest I don't think it matters right now. The Republican race isn't exactly close these days.
I was under the impression that Clinton's campaign had a much wider organization than Bernie's.
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
I believe this is the case. She has more offices spread around the state.
From what I remember Clinton has more field offices than Bernie, a whole three more but still more. Here's where I got that from: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/sanderss-iowa-ground-game-is-good-but-it-aint-obamas/. It has a couple of links that go to the candidate's staffing info and whatnot.
It is. It's close, but she is spread a little bit further than Bernie.
Caucuses are all about ground game. Santorum was at 15% in the final Selzer poll in 2012, and at 18% in the final poll published before the caucuses. Apparently his ground game was good, which is why it was a big deal when his ground game manager started to work for Trump.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
Had being the active word. Sanders has marginally more official locations now, less paid staff (although not significantly), and a lot more volunteers and a lot more satellite locations (unofficial locations co-ordinated by local volunteers and campaign HQ).
Links? Because unless he's opened 4 more offices since that 538 article was written 3 days ago that's just not true.
Bernie can pad all the college towns he wants but it won't get him much.
http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/why-geography-favors-hillary-clinton-iowa
http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/why-geography-favors-hillary-clinton-iowa
Joe Shlabotnik
Banned
Definitely true if the Iowa lead is real. It will still be interesting though to see what shape it's really in even if a poor one still ekes out an Iowa win, both for the rest of the primaries and the general.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
7 of Clinton's Iowa offices only handle paid staff and media, not volunteer efforts. All 23 of Bernie's offices do volunteers, so it's 17-23 Clinton-Sanders in terms of the troop centres where your GoTV canvassers will spread out from. You can see Clinton's here and Sanders' here. Most of Sanders' are much newer, though - he only overtook Clinton in late November iirc.
Black Mamba
Member
Obama's getting more popular heading into the Primaries.
Should Hillary be the nominee, I really think she gets more of the white vote than Obama, dooming any GOP hopeful.
It wouldn't surprise me if people saw Trump and thought, "Thank god we have Obama, I forgot how much worse it could have been."
Joe Shlabotnik
Banned
I bet he'll wade in pretty deep if Trump's the nominee. He sure as shit doesn't want to handle a transition process to fucking Trump.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
Bernie can pad all the college towns he wants but it won't get him much.
http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/why-geography-favors-hillary-clinton-iowa
That only goes so far, though. There's a (highly technical) article here which maths it up and says that the additional amount of delegates optimal distribution game can get you is +4.91% of your share of the vote. Even if we assume Clinton's distribution is so good she maximizes that, if Sanders wins the popular vote 52-47, which is not out of the grounds of conceivability, he still pulls through. I also just think it's unlikely that she'll eke out the full +4.91%. Something like 3% would be more likely, so a 51-48 Sanders margin still takes it.
Obviously Clinton is the favourite, but it's absolutely no way near a foregone conclusion.
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