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PoliGAF 2015-2016 |OT3| If someone named PhoenixDark leaves your party, call the cops

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ivysaur12

Banned
7 of Clinton's Iowa offices only handle paid staff and media, not volunteer efforts. All 23 of Bernie's offices do volunteers, so it's 17-23 Clinton-Sanders in terms of the troop centres where your GoTV canvassers will spread out from. You can see Clinton's here and Sanders' here. Most of Sanders' are much newer, though - he only overtook Clinton in late November iirc.

Yeah, but geographically, there isn't much of a difference if Clinton's organization is better trained, especially if a lot of those offices are newer.

Sanders:

darr-sanders-11.png


Clinton:

A36aaKg.png


ALSO, Rand is might be getting a real opponent:

http://www.cnn.com/2016/01/22/politics/rand-paul-senate-seat-democrats-challenger/

(CNN)Democrats in Washington and Kentucky, eager to seize on Sen. Rand Paul's stumbles in the Republican presidential race, are increasingly setting their sights on what once seemed unthinkable: Knocking him out of his Senate seat.

The prospects, they acknowledge, are still slim -- given Kentucky's sharp tilt to the right in recent years. But behind the scenes, Democrats are urging the wealthy mayor of Lexington, Jim Gray, to mount a campaign that he could finance partly on his own, arguing he has at least an outside shot of taking out Paul.

Paul and his team are watching Gray closely, and his decision on whether to run -- expected by the state's filing deadline next week -- could impact the Kentucky Republican's calculation on how long to stay in the presidential race.

Gray and his team met this month with Sen. Jon Tester, head of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, and senior staff to discuss his interest in running. He has spoken with a number of Kentucky Democrats, including the lone Democrat in the congressional delegation, Rep. John Yarmuth. And the advice he's been getting seems to be universal: Run against Paul.

"I think at this point he's our strongest possible candidate, without question," Yarmuth said. "It sounded to me like it was something he really wanted to do."

Tester told CNN: "I think he can absolutely be competitive in Kentucky," adding that Gray is a "very, very appealing" candidate.

Gray and Paul both declined to be interviewed.

Even as he's been focused on his presidential run over the past year, Paul's team is preparing for the likelihood of a Senate reelection bid and leaving nothing to chance, according to several people involved in the discussions. They say that they are still holding out hope Paul pulls off a surprising comeback in the White House race. But they fully acknowledge that running a Senate race could cost well over $10 million, requiring an organization that takes time to build.
 

Bowdz

Member
So I just donated again to Hilldawg and I also just got my copies of Game Change and Double Down. Let me just say, I am SO damn excited for Monday. I'm going to binge on politics for the next week and just enjoy the whole spectacle. Whether or not Bernie takes IA from Hilldawg or Cruz tops Trump, I'll just soak this whole experience up. It is going to be magical.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
Yeah, but geographically, there isn't much of a difference if Clinton's organization is better trained, especially if a lot of those offices are newer

Yes, that's why I said it's experience vs. enthusiasm, with Clinton having the depth and Sanders the numbers. :p
 
So I just donated again to Hilldawg and I also just got my copies of Game Change and Double Down. Let me just say, I am SO damn excited for Monday. I'm going to binge on politics for the next week and just enjoy the whole spectacle. Whether or not Bernie takes IA from Hilldawg or Cruz tops Trump, I'll just soak this whole experience up. It is going to be magical.

If only I could actually like politics like this. For me, it's just a torturous process that has too many consequences on everyone to ignore.
 

noshten

Member
S.C. Rep. Bamberg to switch endorsement from Clinton to Sanders

Bamberg told the Times that he did not know enough about Sanders when he initially endorsed Clinton and changed his mind after the two had a conversation about Scott's death.

“What I got from him was not a presidential candidate talking to a state representative, or an old white man talking to a young black guy,” Bamberg said. “What I got from him was a man talking to a man about things that they are passionate about, and that was the tipping point for me.”

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/01/justin-bamberg-endorses-bernie-sanders-218184#ixzz3yI3NL8iI

South Firewall under fire.
 

ivysaur12

Banned
Yes, that's why I said it's experience vs. enthusiasm, with Clinton having the depth and Sanders the numbers. :p

Shhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh.

:p

ALSO LOL from that article on Gray:

"He would energize the liberal base like probably no other candidate other than me," Yarmuth said. And Yarmuth, who said he has gotten assurances from Hillary Clinton's camp that she'd compete in Kentucky if she becomes the nominee, said that a big turnout in progressive parts of the state would help Gray.
 
I'm just reminded that the only reason I actually attended all of my economics classes in college was because the TA was really cute.

I got a B. The only B I've ever gotten.

Didn't get the D, though, amirite?

I actually got a C+ in macroeconomics in undergrad. I just wasn't very interested in the subject back then and only attended like half the lectures. I only took it because I was a poli-sci major for awhile, and intro to micro and intro to macro were requirements.

In grad school I became very interested in econ and crushed all my econ classes. If I didn't hate doing math I'd look into an econ PhD eventually. But multivariate calculus makes my head hurt. I could probably learn it if I had to, but... ugh.

Strangely I never took behavioral, even though there were several behavioral classes offered at various points while I was in grad school. I'm going to look into those books that have been recommended.
 
Obama's getting more popular heading into the Primaries.

Should Hillary be the nominee, I really think she gets more of the white vote than Obama, dooming any GOP hopeful.
I can't see her doing worse than Obama did in 2012, 39% of the white vote. And he still won by four points.

Unless you're Sean Trende and think Democrats will continue deteriorating amongst white voters while any improvements with minorities will disappear because reasons. "Obama's done worse with white voters than any other Democrat!" Gee I wonder why.
 

NeoXChaos

Member
Aaron and Ivysaur:

Let's say Trump wins. What states should Hillary keep her resources in from the primary for the fall outside of the obvious swing states?

I thought of GA, IN, MO & AZ.
 

FiggyCal

Banned
I actually got a C+ in macroeconomics in undergrad. I just wasn't very interested in the subject back then and only attended like half the lectures. I only took it because I was a poli-sci major for awhile, and intro to micro and intro to macro were requirements.

In grad school I became very interested in econ and crushed all my econ classes. If I didn't hate doing math I'd look into an econ PhD eventually. But multivariate calculus makes my head hurt. I could probably learn it if I had to, but... ugh.

Strangely I never took behavioral, even though there were several behavioral classes offered at various points while I was in grad school. I'm going to look into those books that have been recommended.

I got a D+ in statistics and C+ in calculus. I don't see myself getting into grad school for econ :(
 
S.C. Rep. Bamberg to switch endorsement from Clinton to Sanders



http://www.politico.com/story/2016/01/justin-bamberg-endorses-bernie-sanders-218184#ixzz3yI3NL8iI

South Firewall under fire.

While this endorsement is absolutely inconsequential in the great schemes of things it does play in the narrative of Clinton losing steam/support. Thats why the most minimal endorsement Sanders gets over Clinton, and specially one that is about a endorsers changing his mind, gets over magnified by the media. This will be great.

His campaign is starting to run ads today in SC too,where he is is at 38% right now. I can only imagine that number going way, way up if he wins Iowa. The firewall is in trouble, indeed.
 

ivysaur12

Banned
Weird, the RNC had the same talking point:

Yes! A state rep has switched their endorsement even though the other candidate is still the overwhelming favorite!!! It's CRACKING!

While this endorsement is absolutely inconsequential in the great schemes of things it does play in the narrative of Clinton losing steam/support. Thats why the most minimal endorsement Sanders gets over Clinton, and specially one that is about a endorsers changing his mind, gets over magnified by the media. This will be great.

His campaign is starting to run ads today in SC too,where he is is at 38% right now. I can only imagine that number going way, way up if he wins Iowa. The firewall is in trouble, indeed.

Ah yes, that huge chance that Bernie Sanders to win South Carolina.

She's not losing South Carolina. Bernie could win New Hampshire, Iowa, and Nevada, and he would lose South Carolina.
 
Maybe you should start a thread in that case

Isn't it the Sanders people creating a new thread every time he gets a favorable poll or headline? I remember the thread about Biden basically endorsing Sanders over one little quote. I don't see threads over Obama and Biden's new words on his campaign and proposals.
 
While this endorsement is absolutely inconsequential in the great schemes of things it does play in the narrative of Clinton losing steam/support. Thats why the most minimal endorsement Sanders gets over Clinton, and specially one that is about a endorsers changing his mind, gets over magnified by the media. This will be great.

His campaign is starting to run ads today in SC too,where he is is at 38% right now. I can only imagine that number going way, way up if he wins Iowa. The firewall is in trouble, indeed.

Is there any state he can't win? You make it sound so easy. Like in 2008 Obama suddenly flipped every Clinton state as soon he won Iowa.
 

NeoXChaos

Member
Jamelle Bouie ‏@jbouie 23m23 minutes ago Dupont Circle, Washington
Here's a real hot take, fresh from the take machine: If Sanders wins IA & NH, I think Obama gets more vocal about the primaries.
Jamelle Bouie ‏@jbouie 18m18 minutes ago Dupont Circle, Washington
Obama is subtle, so I don't think he would endorse HRC. But he would make it clear that Sanders isn't preferred.

Jamelle Bouie ‏@jbouie 13m13 minutes ago Dupont Circle, Washington
If I had to seriously speculate, it's because he might not trust Sanders to carry the torch for his legacy.

Mark Harris ‏@MarkHarrisNYC 8m8 minutes ago Manhattan, NY
@jbouie He's also been President for 7 years and so may recognize "Everything is broken, nothing has changed" as a glib insult.

.
 

noshten

Member
Isn't it the Sanders people creating a new thread every time he gets a favorable poll or headline? I remember the thread about Biden basically endorsing Sanders over one little quote. I don't see threads over Obama and Biden's new words on his campaign and proposals.

I wouldn't know I don't partake in creating threads about inconsequential things like every poll or endorsement.

Eh, Ta-Nehisi Coates is pretty much going to put a stop to that at this rate.

I'm not sure why Coates hasn't endorsed Jill Stein yet, she is the radical socialist he has been looking for.

"We support the creation of a claim of action and a right to recover inherited wealth and other profits accumulated from the slave trade for the benefit of a reparations trust fund."
 
Of course Dems will compete in Kentucky if Trump is the nominee, I mean why the fuck not.

Same with Arkansas.

Apart from the states Obama competed in last time, Hillary should aim for Missouri and Georgia specifically. Romney gained very few votes over McCain in those states, his increased margin came entirely from a drop-off in Democratic votes since Obama didn't bother competing. If he did he probably wouldn't have won them, but they'd be closer. Arizona also didn't move much between 2008 and 2012 - PVI wise it was actually a little closer. McCain's favored son status definitely helped in 08 since OFA gave up on the state after he was nominated.

Indiana would be harder but there is an open Senate race there after all, so it would certainly behoove Democrats to try there.
 
Bernie doesnt need to win SC, he only needs to show he can be competitive in a state where minorities are the majority of the Dems vote. The firewall is "the" firewall because Clinton is expected to crush Bernie there, if such crush doesnt happen then the primary isnt going to be wraped up by March 1st, like some of you expect. This shit will go down to April/May.
 

I don't remember the last time I saw a candidate disrespect an incumbent as much as Sanders does regularly to Obama. Even McCain and the 2008 candidates constantly argued "Bush defended the country" among other things. Listening to Sanders you either get the impression that it's still 2008 or that Obama's presidency has been a giant disaster.

Yes, it's not like the Clinton camp is very fond of Obama. She's surrounded by people who hand wring over petty stuff, or compliment Hillary while putting down Obama; can't wait to see Ed Rendell and other sycophants defend Hillary as she struggles to accomplish anything with a republican congress...when they attacked Obama for years under the same situation. BUT Hillary is smart enough to hug Obama as long as she's able to.

Regardless in 10-15 years the entire party will treat Obama like republicans treat Reagan.
 
I just read this on another forum:

Well, now that HRC is running her smear machine on Bernie full time through social media, I'm leaning heavily to not voting for President in November if she wins the primary. I mean, I live in South Dakota so that doesn't matter anyway.

Did I miss some amping up of Clinton-on-Bernie attacks or something?
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
Bernie doesnt need to win SC, he only needs to show he can be competitive in a state where minorities are the majority of the Dems vote. The firewall is "the" firewall because Clinton is expected to crush Bernie there, if such crush doesnt happen then the primary isnt going to be wraped up by March 1st, like some of you expect. This shit will go down to April/May.

Pretty much. Bernie is winning whites 48-44 in SC, losing blacks 24-77. If he makes that winning whites 55-37 (+7) and losing blacks 30-71 (+6), then he's suddenly only down 55-45 in SC; that would be a dead draw from a national perspective. If he gets to 35-65 among black voters, that's a narrow national lead.

He doesn't need to win SC or even come that close. If Clinton's lead in SC is less than 15, the race is competitive.
 
It's already started and Sanders hasn't won any state yet. You really think if it gets serious the party will just let it slide? With guys like Bloomberg threatening independent runs?

Polls (one lol) show Bernie winning and Clinton losing if Bloomberg runs. Its like the Dems would rather lose the presidency than to change into what their base wants them to change.
 
I just read this on another forum:



Did I miss some amping up of Clinton-on-Bernie attacks or something?

At this point, Clinton could gesture politely at Sanders tonight at the debate and some of these people would be up in arms.

Polls (one lol) shows Bernie winning and Clinton losing if Bloomberg runs. Its like the Dems would rather lose the presidency than to change into what their base wants them to change.

I got one poll that shows Carson winning by 10. Not sure it's a very convincing piece of evidence.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
It's already started and Sanders hasn't won any state yet. You really think if it gets serious the party will just let it slide? With guys like Bloomberg threatening independent runs?

Judging by YouGOV's polling, Bloomberg does better against Trump/Clinton than he does Trump/Sanders, so...

And no, I don't think Obama will endorse either way. He will endorse the winner to try and make sure as many people as possible back them, rather than wasting political capital on a divisive move early on.
 
Polls (one lol) shows Bernie winning and Clinton losing if Bloomberg runs. Its like the Dems would rather lose the presidency than to change into what their base wants them to change.

Or some of us know any leads Bernie holds are total fantasy and illusory. The guy can barely win a 3-way race before we get hundreds of million of dollars of ads about the "massive middle class tax increases" from various SuperPACs.
 
Judging by YouGOV's polling, Bloomberg does better against Trump/Clinton than he does Trump/Sanders, so...

And no, I don't think Obama will endorse either way. He will endorse the winner to try and make sure as many people as possible back them, rather than wasting political capital on a divisive move early on.

Who said endorse?

I have a lot of gripes with YouGOV by the way. Their use of online opt-panels and all this other experimental methodology is totally unnecessary. They also drastically understate Obama's approval compared to every other poll so something is wrong with their selection process or something.
 

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
The democrat party is not going to give it to wacky Bernie. I think we should just all start talking about more relevant things like hummus and balloon animals.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
Or some of us know any leads Bernie holds are total fantasy and illusory. The guy can barely win a 3-way race before we get hundreds of million of dollars of ads about the "massive middle class tax increases" from various SuperPACs.

yes, and Clinton can't win it at all, so...

Not sure what your point is.
 
A part of me wants Clinton to win Iowa pretty easily (at least in the media narrative) so we can stop discussing this and go back to discussing the GOP primary only.
 
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