Support NeoGAF

[shinra-bansho]

I think most of the GOP candidates are basically still generic R too.
Generic D beats Generic R more consistently.

Trump probably stands out. Because he's Trump. She (pretty) consistently leads Trump.

They're probably the only ones that have been sufficiently defined this far out.

 

[Owzers]

Cnn saying last night was the second lowest ratings out of the debates this season, I assume just republican.

 

[Republic of Ezo]

I don't think I agree with this. There's some predictive value if you look back a few cycles. I think you need to adjust for the later date of the Iowa caucuses, which boost I think a candidate's viability, but in general they don't seem that bad.

It's not great that Hillary is less favorable than generic D.

Hillary's lower numbers are entirely attributable to the fact that Republicans have been campaigning against her for 4+ years and because her "inevitability" has made her less appealing (voters like something shiny and new, Democrats particularly (Hence the motto: "Democrats fall in love, Republicans fall in line."))

Since we're likely to be facing Trump I'm not too worried about turnout. Trump puts the fear of God in literally every other liberal I know and I think people will be satisfied to vote against him. I certainly will.

 

[disastermouse]

His crystal ball is probably based on head-to- head GE polling aggregates, which, according to Crab, supposedly get predictive around this point. Or his rising deficits with swing voters. Or his terrible favoribility with Americans as a whole.

Your crystal ball just seems to be based on your gut and personal dislike of Clinton, no offense. You could definitely be right but your stubborn confidence seems out of place.

If I'm right and it shows up after she gets the nom, it's too late to fix it.

She lost to an African American named Barack Hussein in a heavily racist and islamophobic country. She's losing ground to a septuagenarian self-described socialist non-Democrat with a DNC falling all over itself to give her every advantage.

I don't think it's unreasonable to think she'll lose to a blustering blowhard showman in an attempt to keep the presidency in Democrat hands for a third term with an electorate that's very anti-establishment.

 

[PBY]

Cnn saying last night was the second lowest ratings out of the debates this season, I assume just republican.

Teflon

 

[disastermouse]

Hillary's lower numbers are entirely attributable to the fact that Republicans have been campaigning against her for 4+ years and because her "inevitability" has made her less appealing (voters like something shiny and new, Democrats particularly (Hence the motto: "Democrats fall in love, Republicans fall in line."))

Since we're likely to be facing Trump I'm not too worried about turnout. Trump puts the fear of God in literally every other liberal I know and I think people will be satisfied to vote against him. I certainly will.

Cool. I won't. I've voted Dem in every election since I could vote and I won't vote for Hillary Clinton. I'm sure I'll be the only one, so you're set.

 

[Cheebo]

Cool. I won't. I've voted Dem in every election since I could vote and I won't vote for Hillary Clinton. I'm sure I'll be the only one, so you're set.

Yes you will, everyone says this in the heat of a primary. Come convention I am certain you'll be on board the Clinton train. Just like the bitter Hillary supporters came around in 2008 for Obama. It always happens. It takes some serious damn bitter tears to actively try to help Trump/Cruz win because the one liberal candidate beat your preferred slightly more liberal candidate. Not going to happen.

Very few are going to be pouty little kids who throw a temper tantrum that they didn't get their way, nowhere near enough l to make a difference. 2008 made this obvious. That was way more bitter of a primary and nearly everyone came together in the end.

 

[Republic of Ezo]

And no, $15 is not too high for any part of the country. Even 'Light-My-Fart, AL' deserves a $15 minimum wage. That's a floor, not a ceiling.

When I did my BS work study job at Northwestern I don't think the work I did was worth $15 an hour and I know for a fact that we would have hired far fewer workers at that rate (I should know - I was a supervisor managing the hiring process and labor was by far the #1 cost in our budget). When you put that wage in as a floor you are going to eliminate a lot of jobs. That's a fact.

 

[Makai]

http://www.wmur.com/money/who-won-the-ratings-race-fox-news-or-donald-trump/37706506

he second hour had an 8.3 rating, which means the audience was loyal even though Trump was absent.

By comparison, two of the cable channels that showed parts of Trump's event, CNN and MSNBC, had about a quarter of Fox's audience combined.

 

[Republic of Ezo]

Cool. I won't. I've voted Dem in every election since I could vote and I won't vote for Hillary Clinton. I'm sure I'll be the only one, so you're set.

Well, then I hope you don't live in a swing state. If you do, you're being extremely irresponsible but I don't have the power to force you to do anything.

 

[Joe Shlabotnik]

Yes you will, everyone says this in the heat of a primary. Come convention I am certain you'll be on board the Clinton train. Just like the bitter Hillary supporters came around in 2008 for Obama. It always happens. It takes some serious damn bitter tears to actively try to help Trump/Cruz win because the one liberal candidate beat your preferred slightly more liberal candidate. Not going to happen.

To be fair, he's a 41-year-old recent convert to Marxism. That probably qualifies as an outlier.

 

[Roland_Gunner]

No. Don't tell me the businesses can't afford it. If it's true, then they're not really America, they're a second or third world country within a country and if that's true, then why even continue the union? No. Bring them up or kick them out. Their schools suck? Gee, I wonder if that's because the tax base is shit because wages are shit, so property values are shit.

And no, if the minimum is $15 everywhere, where will they move their shops and plants? China? Cool, tariff the living fuck out of companies that ex-patriate and cut taxes on those that stay.

Okay so because you feel that everyone should have a $15 wage we're going to destroy the entire global trade structure. Because if a high school graduate in rural Alabama is going to me making that companies won't just be leaving for China. They'll want to move to Mexico, Costa Rica, hell even Canada. Right now $15 is $20 Canadian and the minimum wage there is $10 so a company can move their plant north of the border and save a ton. I guess we don't need to trade with Canada either so no problem there, right?

 

[Cheebo]

Well, then I hope you don't live in a swing state. If you do, you're being extremely irresponsible but I don't have the power to force you to do anything.

he will come around. they always do. You have to be one big selfish crazy to try and actively help the Republicans win because the slightly more liberal guy best the other liberal gal. It won't happen.

 

[Republic of Ezo]

Cool. I won't. I've voted Dem in every election since I could vote and I won't vote for Hillary Clinton. I'm sure I'll be the only one, so you're set.

Also, you voted for Bill but won't vote for Hillary? That strikes me as very odd.

 

[Cheebo]

Also, you voted for Bill but won't vote for Hillary? That strikes me as very odd.

She is without question more liberal than Bill ever was. It was even an attack leveraged against her during the HillaryCare battles of the 90s.

 

[Joe Shlabotnik]

http://www.wmur.com/money/who-won-the-ratings-race-fox-news-or-donald-trump/37706506

This seems spinnable by both parties but overall doesn't look like an obvious KO from Trump.

-2nd lowest GOP debate
-but higher than last GOP debate
-but that had a lower potential audience reach
-significantly lower than last Dem debate
-way way higher than Trump's ratings

 

[PBY]

This seems spinnable by both parties but overall doesn't look like an obvious KO from Trump.

-2nd lowest GOP debate
-but higher than last GOP debate
-but that had a lower potential audience reach
-significantly lower than last Dem debate
-way way higher than Trump's ratings

Seems pretty good for Trump to me

 

[Cheebo]

Seems pretty good for Trump to me

Trump declared he would beat the ratings of the debate and the debate would max out at 1-2 mil.

 

[Clefargle]

Seems pretty good for Trump to me

Pretty much, anyone trying to compare a highly advertised and publicized debate with an event trump planned over the course of a couple of days is crazy. The fact that he got a fucking quarter of the debate viewership is incredible.

 

[Makai]

Why is the bid-ask spread so crazy wide on PredictIt?

 

[Coriolanus]

They'll want to move to Mexico, Costa Rica, hell even Canada.

I'll go out on a leg and guess that labour in Mexico already is significantly cheaper than in 'bama, so one kinda has to explain why they havent done that already. Or the last time the minimum wage was increased.

Either way one would also have to explain if they arguing for no increase at all, which would be the position one would take if keeping companies around is their concern.

If not, then is there any data to indicate how many companies would move/close due to a 12usd increase compared to a 15usd increase? Whats the size of the impact for each?

 

[Frank the Great]

I don't think Hillary can win by relying on the Obama coalition. Young voters will not turn out in droves for Hillary. She is just not as exciting of a candidate and she does not have the whole antiwar initiative behind her the way Barry did.

That doesn't mean she can't win, it just means that for people used to seeing two Obama victories, this election will be different. She will be targeting different voters and campaigning in a different style.

I'm worried that young voters could be in favor of someone like Trump because he is a reality TV star with a great sense of humor, and Hillary is boring and old-hat. Hillary's realpolitik message will be lost on them.

 

[Republic of Ezo]

I'll go out on a leg and guess that labour in Mexico already is significantly cheaper than in 'bama, so one kinda has to explain why they havent done that already. Or the last time the minimum wage was increased.

Either way one would also have to explain if they arguing for no increase at all, which would be the position one would take if keeping companies around is their concern.

If not, then is there any data to indicate how many companies would move/close due to a 12usd increase compared to a 15usd increase? Whats the size of the impact for each?

It stands to reason that fewer companies will close shop in the US at the lower rate. Literally doubling (or more than doubling) the minimum wage will undoubtedly have a bigger impact than raising it by about 50%.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

Why is the bid-ask spread so crazy wide on PredictIt?

Because it is too small a market to reach equilibrium probably. I have no idea why people are using PredictIt instead of just something like Betfair's odds.

 

[Republic of Ezo]

I don't think Hillary can win by relying on the Obama coalition. Young voters will not turn out in droves for Hillary. She is just not as exciting of a candidate and she does not have the whole antiwar initiative behind her the way Barry did.

That doesn't mean she can't win, it just means that for people used to seeing two Obama victories, this election will be different. She will be targeting different voters and campaigning in a different style.

I'm worried that young voters could be in favor of someone like Trump because he is a reality TV star with a great sense of humor, and Hillary is boring and old-hat. Hillary's realpolitik message will be lost on them.

If young voters come out for Trump over Hillary then they are just as racist and sexist as he is and deserve whatever they get.

 

[NYCmetsfan]

I think Clinton is a bad candidate and will depress the Dem vote lower than it would have been under alternatives (not just Sanders, Biden would have done better as well); but the Dems are so structurally advantage I think it is very unlikely she would outright lose. But yes, she's a terrible campaigner.

Yes the first women is going to depress turn out worse than biden....

 

[Deleted member 231381]

Yes the first women is going to depress turn out worse than biden....

She is, yes.

 

[eBay Huckster]

so, there's now two days where i'm essentially gonna teabag the entire internet: march 2, and november 9

 

[NeoXChaos]

so, there's now two days where i'm essentially gonna teabag the entire internet: march 2, and november 9

what happens march 2

I think the ratings for the debate give Trump more than enough to work with to spin this as a resounding win. Basically, he cut viewership in half from the last Fox News Debate and didn't do half bad for his own hastily scheduled event.

Also, does anyone know when the last DMR poll gets released?

5:45 pm EST tomorrow.

 

[Bowdz]

I think the ratings for the debate give Trump more than enough to work with to spin this as a resounding win. Basically, he cut viewership in half from the last Fox News Debate and didn't do half bad for his own hastily scheduled event.

Also, does anyone know when the last DMR poll gets released?

 

[Makai]

PPP Iowa

Trump 31
Cruz 23
Rubio 14
Carson 9
Bush 4
Paul 4
Huckabee 4
Fiorina 3
Christie 2
Kasich 2
Gilmore 1
Santorum 1

 

[Holmes]

what happens march 2



5:45 pm EST tomorrow.

Day after Super Tuesday.

 

[Y2Kev]

Jeb surging.

 

[Hilbert]

Have you guys seen this article?

BBC: Bernie Sanders supporters get a bad reputation online

http://www.bbc.com/news/blogs-trending-35422316

Didn't someone here wonder when we would hear 'bourgeois' used by Sanders fans?

He says the tone of tweets like his are confrontational and meant to be - this is a "revolution", he reasons, and he is trying to challenge establishment Democrats.

"I target these talking heads in the media who have a high perch, these great liberal thought leaders, when they're not - they're tools of bourgeois," says Russo

 

[NYCmetsfan]

To the Hillary diablosing. How does she lose the electoral college? Do you think she's losing to trump in Virginia? Pennsylvania, Florida?

 

[Roland_Gunner]

I'll go out on a leg and guess that labour in Mexico already is significantly cheaper than in 'bama, so one kinda has to explain why they havent done that already. Or the last time the minimum wage was increased.

Either way one would also have to explain if they arguing for no increase at all, which would be the position one would take if keeping companies around is their concern.

If not, then is there any data to indicate how many companies would move/close due to a 12usd increase compared to a 15usd increase? Whats the size of the impact for each?

Thing is, all of the studies on the affects of minimum wage increases are looking at relatively mild raises. In Greene County, AL the average wage is $27K a year. With a $15 min wage the lowest you would pay a full time employee is $31.2K. So half the people in the county would get at least a 15% raise. I can't find any kind of study that tracks the impacts of a move like that, but it seems reasonable to suggest that a lot of jobs would suddenly become at risk.

 

[NYCmetsfan]

She is, yes.

Based on?

 

[Third Strike]

To the Hillary diablosing. How does she lose the electoral college? Do you think she's losing to trump in Virginia? Pennsylvania, Florida?

I just can't see Hillary doing worst than Kerry. Gore's map in 2000 is her bottom, but I feel like New Hampshire and Colorado will turn blue, especially against Trump. I also feel the same way about Virginia, especially with the Democratic growth in NOVA.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

If we use GE polls, if the Republicans want to win, they should nominate Ben Carson.

 

[Ignatz Mouse]

We're basing this on the fact that Bernie and Trump voters are motivated and Hillary voters are not. She's Jeb in Democrat drag.

Bernie might lose. Hillary will lose.

This is just flat out disingenuous.

 

[Roland_Gunner]

I just can't see Hillary doing worst than Kerry. Gore's map in 2000 is her bottom, but I feel like New Hampshire and Colorado will turn blue, especially against Trump. I also feel the same way about Virginia, especially with the Democratic growth in NOVA.

I think this is the absolute worst-case map for HRC - Trump:

http://www.270towin.com/maps/M3Xy1

Trump has bad numbers with college educated whites and is literally hated by Hispanics. I don't see how he can possible win Virginia without the former and Florida without the later.

 

[sc0la]

Goog.

 

[Frank the Great]

I think this is the absolute worst-case map for HRC - Trump:

http://www.270towin.com/maps/M3Xy1

Trump has bad numbers with college educated whites and is literally hated by Hispanics. I don't see how he can possible win Virginia without the former and Florida without the later.

Trump will take Pennsylvania. Blacks love him. I heard him say so himself.

 

[Joe Shlabotnik]

To the Hillary diablosing. How does she lose the electoral college? Do you think she's losing to trump in Virginia? Pennsylvania, Florida?

This, I pulled up the map the other day with all this Trumpmentum and just lol'd.

He can pull 90% of Alabama if he wants, sure.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

It's incredible that hardline party members, for some reason, always predict that a person who isn't as extreme as them will lose the GE for not being as extreme as they are. Or that the candidate lost the GE for not being as extreme as they are.

I mean, if the Republicans want to win, they should nominate Ted Cruz. There was so much depressed turnout due to Romney.

 

[thefro]

Politico: An Iowa win might make the Trump train unstoppable

A wide range of senior Republicans told POLITICO that if Trump wins Iowa, he'll more than likely be the nominee. One factor they repeatedly pointed to: An Iowa victory over Cruz would validate opinion polls showing him in command of the race. The Trump phenomenon would officially become a reality.

Mike McSherry, a longtime campaign consultant and former executive director of the Republican Governors’ Association, said: “If Trump wins Iowa, I don’t know how you’d stop him. All these guys are going to be chewing each other’s throats out for second place.”

A top official of a rival GOP campaign, speaking anonymously to avoid offending his candidate, said: “If Donald Trump wins Iowa, I think he has won—period. Ted Cruz is supposed to win Iowa. If Trump wins, he’ll be on a trajectory to come out of the SEC primaries [March 1] with close to triple the delegates of anyone else.”

One of the nation’s best-known Republican strategists, speaking on condition of anonymity because of his close connections to the leaders of several of the campaigns, said: “Only Trump can stop himself. All his opponents can do is cause him to do things that make him less appealing.”

 

[NYCmetsfan]

It's incredible that hardline party members, for some reason, always predict that a person who isn't as extreme as them will lose the GE for not being as extreme as they are. Or that the candidate lost the GE for not being as extreme as they are.

I mean, if the Republicans want to win, they should nominate Ted Cruz. There was so much depressed turnout due to Romney.

Again with my thesis about Bernie stans (not just his supporters but the fervent ones) being mirrors of the tea party.

 

[Plinko]

It's incredible that hardline party members, for some reason, always predict that a person who isn't as extreme as them will lose the GE for not being as extreme as they are. Or that the candidate lost the GE for not being as extreme as they are.

I mean, if the Republicans want to win, they should nominate Ted Cruz. There was so much depressed turnout due to Romney.

Please tell me this is sarcasm.

 

[Makai]

Please tell me this is sarcasm.

You skipped the first half.

 

[A Human Becoming]

Actually, I didn't, thanks. I posted a lot of the same things you did. We must have crossed posts.

We did. I saw that after and am glad you did read it.

http://www.wmur.com/money/who-won-the-ratings-race-fox-news-or-donald-trump/37706506

WMUR? Do you secretly live in NH!?