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[dramatis]

Apparently there is actually a documentary about Anthony Weiner, called "Weiner" (OF COURSE). It was shown at Sundance, and will be hitting theaters May 20.

Vulture has a 17 Fascinating Moments post up, I guess after the initial paragraphs much of the post has spoilers.

What's onscreen is actually far more interesting than the speculation: a baffling and humanizing look at a man without impulse control, driven into public life, and public humiliation, by hubris and narcissism, and his endlessly fascinating marriage to a woman who, against all logic, puts up with his shit. Here are 17 of the most fascinating moments.

It's probably not nearly as political as it seems, but Fox did ask the important question about whether this documentary will cost Hillary votes lol

 

[B-Dubs]

If he figured out that was FOX News' plan...damn. That's impressive.



This is why I am far more worried about Trump in the General Election than many other liberals. The longer this goes on, the more I think this isn't just dumb luck but serious, serious political acumen and skill.

I think it's more likely he had someone on the inside. He's definitely got the money for it and I wouldn't put it past him. He wouldn't be able to pull this move in the general though, he'd be tarred and feathered if he tried.

I sincerely thought I saw a poll showing like 40% up at 25, 20% at 35, 5ish % at 45, and then clinton favored after that.

Spoiler

sorry about any misunderstandings earlier up, running on little sleep

If you go into the crosstabs of the Reuters tracking you can see what I'm talking about. Anything that includes the 18-24 demo goes for Sanders but anything without it goes Clinton. She's got a stranglehold on that Obama coalition and just won't let go. I wish Reuters had 18-24 as a specifically searchable demo though, so I could show you exactly what I mean.

Spoiler

No worries, I'm kinda stressed right now since I've got like 2 deadlines and am stuck playing phone tag.

 

[Joe Shlabotnik]

Apparently there is actually a documentary about Anthony Weiner, called "Weiner" (OF COURSE). It was shown at Sundance, and will be hitting theaters May 20.

Vulture has a 17 Fascinating Moments post up, I guess after the initial paragraphs much of the post has spoilers.

It's probably not nearly as political as it seems, but Fox did ask the important question about whether this documentary will cost Hillary votes lol

I've read here and there that the campaign is a little concerned about the film.

 

[ugaboga232]

I think it's more likely he had someone on the inside. He's definitely got the money for it and I wouldn't put it past him. He wouldn't be able to pull this move in the general though, he'd be tarred and feathered if he tried.

Agree, the video segment seems perfect for Trump based on all his old views. Either that or he is super lucky and fox screwed themselves with the press release.

 

[Cybit]

Yeah I'm not sure how he does it

10 days out he was down significantly in Iowa. All of a sudden, BAM. Like, what the fuck just happened? How did he get here?

Scott Adams has his theories (if you read blog.dilbert.com) - and those are starting to make more and more sense. (as wacky as adams' other theories are)

That said - I think he just knows how to play the game, and hit people over and over. I mean, he has liberals wondering about birther issues with Cruz, even though almost all legal scholars know Cruz is eligible. Think about that. He got the party of Obama to start writing birther articles about Ted Cruz. Insanity.

 

[B-Dubs]

Scott Adams has his theories (if you read blog.dilbert.com) - and those are starting to make more and more sense. (as wacky as adams' other theories are)

That said - I think he just knows how to play the game, and hit people over and over. I mean, he has liberals wondering about birther issues with Cruz, even though almost all legal scholars know Cruz is eligible. Think about that. He got the party of Obama to start writing birther articles about Ted Cruz. Insanity.

Well, it's not like anyone has any love for Cruz and it's good schadenfreude. Liberals love a good case of schadenfreude.

 

[Basileus777]

Scott Adams has his theories (if you read blog.dilbert.com) - and those are starting to make more and more sense. (as wacky as adams' other theories are)

That said - I think he just knows how to play the game, and hit people over and over. I mean, he has liberals wondering about birther issues with Cruz, even though almost all legal scholars know Cruz is eligible. Think about that. He got the party of Obama to start writing birther articles about Ted Cruz. Insanity.

Liberals are enjoying the Cruz birther stuff specifically because of how it was used against Obama.

 

[thepotatoman]

Politico: An Iowa win might make the Trump train unstoppable

But there's still supposed to be 3 more stages of doom after Iowa/New Hampshire.

 

[Basileus777]

But there's still supposed to be 3 more stages of doom after Iowa/New Hampshire.

Even Nate Silver doesn't believe that article any more.

 

[thepotatoman]

Even Nate Silver doesn't believe that article any more.

I know, and his explanation for his change in views was a good one, but nothing's going to stop me from making fun of those past articles.

 

[Cybit]

Liberals are enjoying the Cruz birther stuff specifically because of how it was used against Obama.

Well, it's not like anyone has any love for Cruz and it's good schadenfreude. Liberals love a good case of schadenfreude.

People love schadenfreude.

Still - I think his ability to persuade people and expose the carnival aspect of the presidential race is unparalleled, and don't think that there won't be a lot of GOP voters who may come out just to watch Clinton get pummeled by Trump as well and get their schadenfreude.

I still have no idea how Trump is possibly ahead in Iowa in like 3 weeks worth of work.

 

[RustyNails]

I know, and his explanation for his change in views was a good one, but nothing's going to stop me from making fun of those past articles.

So what happens in animes when senpai never notices?

 

[PBY]

People love schadenfreude.

Still - I think his ability to persuade people and expose the carnival aspect of the presidential race is unparalleled, and don't think that there won't be a lot of GOP voters who may come out just to watch Clinton get pummeled by Trump as well and get their schadenfreude.

I still have no idea how Trump is possibly ahead in Iowa in like 3 weeks worth of work.

That's one weird thing about this cycle - I don't believe the Republicans who say they'll vote for Hillary if Trump gets the nom. I just don't.

 

[Black Mamba]

Trump missing the debate was a risk and maybe one I didn't think he should take but it most likely paid off.

Fox used the debate to tear apart Cruz and Rubio lol.

 

[sangreal]

Trump missing the debate was a risk and maybe one I didn't think he should take but it most likely paid off.

Fox used the debate to tear apart Cruz and Rubio lol.

yes and make no mistake they had a video takedown planned for trump too. skipping that debate is the smartest thing he could have done, in hindsight

 

[thepotatoman]

So what happens in animes when senpai never notices?

Hijinks, and then the series ends without anything really happening, but the hijinks are the that matters anyway.

 

[B-Dubs]

People love schadenfreude.

Still - I think his ability to persuade people and expose the carnival aspect of the presidential race is unparalleled, and don't think that there won't be a lot of GOP voters who may come out just to watch Clinton get pummeled by Trump as well and get their schadenfreude.

I still have no idea how Trump is possibly ahead in Iowa in like 3 weeks worth of work.

You have to remember that no one likes Cruz and everyone stepped forward to sabotage him all at once. It wasn't just Trump, he played the largest roll, but every GOP politician in Iowa went in on Cruz all at once as well. It probably has more to do with how unlikable Cruz is than how god-like Trump is.

Trump missing the debate was a risk and maybe one I didn't think he should take but it most likely paid off.

Fox used the debate to tear apart Cruz and Rubio lol.

It was a huge risk, unless he knew this shit was going to go down. Missing the debate is probably going to be the best thing that could ever happen to him. Even he can't duck and weave past videos like the ones FOX used last night.

 

[pigeon]

That's one weird thing about this cycle - I don't believe the Republicans who say they'll vote for Hillary if Trump gets the nom. I just don't.

It's super unclear. If they were talking about Jeb or Rubio they would obviously be lying. Even with Cruz I tend to think they'd come back to the flock.

But Trump really, truly, isn't a GOP politician and isn't aligned with any of their formal interest groups. If anybody can split the GOP, it's Trump.

I seem to link this every thread, but remember this?

Moderate Republicans make up a quarter of the Republican Party – and pale in size and influence to the Evangelicals and Tea Party supporters – and they know it. While they are firm Republicans, some have started splitting their tickets....

In the group of moderate women in Raleigh, participants were very supportive, surprisingly so, of a Hillary Clinton presidency. Weighing the option of voting for Hillary Clinton versus a Republican male, the moderate Republican women in Raleigh chose Clinton, on balance. One woman said, “I don't consider myself a Democrat but… if she was the nominee…I would seriously consider…voting for her more than a Democratic male candidate.”

http://www.democracycorps.com/attachments/article/954/dcor rpp fg memo 100313 final.pdf

There really are loosely attached Republicans. They don't like big government, but they're pragmatic, disinterested in culture warfare, and mostly just nervous about change. They're old-fashioned conservatives in a country where conservatism has been redefined to mean reactionism.

These are not people who are going to vote for Donald Trump, one of the ultimate reactionary candidates. (I can't call him the ultimate reactionary candidate in a campaign that includes Carson, Huckabee, Santorum, etc., but he's up there with them, just on a slightly different axis.) They may not cross the aisle -- they might just stay home, or end up voting anyway -- but they are certainly at risk.

 

[Black Mamba]

They're are Republicans who are mostly so for economic reasons. Lower taxes, less regulations, etc. But they align with Democrats on climate change and immigration and other social policies.

They generally hold their nose voting gop because they care more about economics. But if someone like trump comes along and runs openly racist, these guys can switch or stay home. Or also of they're scarf of his foreign policy.

Guys like jack-o from the Bill Simmons podcast if anyone here follows.

 

[Iolo]

Yeah I'm not sure how he does it

10 days out he was down significantly in Iowa. All of a sudden, BAM. Like, what the fuck just happened? How did he get here?

When the full story of Donald Trump and the Republican primary is told, it will end with a punchline.

Spoiler

"The Aristocrats!"

 

[And_Gignac]

Erica Garner WaPo OP-Ed endorsing Bernie Sanders.



A great read for anyone interested.


Oh, and avoid the comments. There are a lot of Trump "totally not racists" idiots and what I suspect is a Bernie-redditor pretending to be a Clinton supporter lol.

 

[PBY]

They're are Republicans who are mostly so for economic reasons. Lower taxes, less regulations, etc. But they align with Democrats on climate change and immigration and other social policies.

They generally hold their nose voting gop because they care more about economics. But if someone like trump comes along and runs openly racist, these guys can switch or stay home. Or also of they're scarf of his foreign policy.

Guys like jack-o from the Bill Simmons podcast if anyone here follows.

Right. But - Jack-o FUCKING HATES Hillary. What do dudes like him do?

 

[User 85168]

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-happens-if-bernie-sanders-wins-iowa/

Interesting article about hypotheticals. Bottom line: anything is possible, but Bernie's path for nomination is a bit fuzzy on the details.

 

[Teggy]

Looks like Republicans are trying to play Harry Reed's "I've heard Mitt Romney didn't pay any taxes" game with Hillary and the FBI. Issa says "I think the FBI head wants to indict," which if you parse the words actually means nothing at all.

 

[NeoXChaos]

.

What if Sanders loses Iowa?

It’s probably over. Not that I’d expect Sanders to drop out of the race. Nor would I expect the media to stop covering it. Depending on Clinton’s margin of victory, you’d probably see some headlines about her resilience, but others saying the results had “raised doubts” about her campaign.

None of that would necessarily matter. Iowa should be one of the half-dozen or so most favorable states in the country for Sanders; New Hampshire is one of the few that ranks even higher for him. If Sanders can’t win Iowa, he probably won’t be winning other relatively favorable states like Wisconsin, much less more challenging ones like Ohio and Florida. His ceiling wouldn’t be high enough to win the nomination unless something major4 changes.

 

[Black Mamba]

Right. But - Jack-o FUCKING HATES Hillary. What do dudes like him do?

Stay home.

 

[Plinko]

I finally got around to watching that Chris Wallace/Ted Cruz exchange at the debate, and Cruz looked TERRIBLE. That was easily the worst thing he could have done there. Just awful.

 

[Armaros]

I finally got around to watching that Chris Wallace/Ted Cruz exchange at the debate, and Cruz looked TERRIBLE. That was easily the worst thing he could have done there. Just awful.

I think they all expected to be able to walk over the debate like previous ones without any pushback.

 

[B-Dubs]

I think they all expected to be able to walk over the debate like previous ones without any pushback.

Trump really needs to thank his spies for the heads up. How lucky can one guy get?

 

[ugaboga232]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WpKiP_gmDS8

What the fox debate would have been like if he actually attended.

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

So if DMR comes out with a Clinton lead tomorrow, is there any doubt she's got this for sure?

 

[Iolo]

So if DMR comes out with a Clinton lead tomorrow, is there any doubt she's got this for sure?

I will doubt until Monday night.

 

[B-Dubs]

I will doubt until Monday night.

Given the way they've been holding their cards close to the chest I can't blame you. Even in the Bloomberg article on their ground game, which made it sound like the second coming of Obama's, they mention that they've been playing low key so others can't catch onto what they're doing.

 

[PBY]

I will doubt until Monday night.

Will we know Monday night who won?

 

[NeoXChaos]

So if DMR comes out with a Clinton lead tomorrow, is there any doubt she's got this for sure?

no doubt at all she has this looking at the trend.

 

[B-Dubs]

Will we know Monday night who won?

Probably, at the very least the next morning I assume.

 

[User 463088]

So, I went over to the ladies house who is hosting the phone bank tomorrow. She also does my hair, because she's a retired hairdresser and I hate going to the beauty shop. PLUS, last week I dyed my hair purple to celebrate one of my friends being testicular cancer free for an entire year. Anyway, we were talking and setting things up, and her son came in. He's a year older than me, and just moved back to Ohio from Vermont. He's a huge Bernie fan. He and I spent the better part of an hour talking politics, between making my hair a normal color again.. We disagreed on a lot, but he kept me on my toes.

Anyway, long story short, he asked me out...but I think it's mainly so I can't phone bank on Sunday too. So, I have a date with someone who is #FeelingtheBern. Plus, like he said, we may not want to talk to each other ever again after Monday night.

I will not compromise my integrity or Christianity, though. I'm thirsty, not dehydrated.

 

[PBY]

Probably, at the very least the next morning I assume.

Lol I've been trying to figure out the timing of this, and I can't find an answer with all of google at my fingertips.

I've read how caucuses work, and they're still fucking weird.

 

[Fuchsdh]

It's super unclear. If they were talking about Jeb or Rubio they would obviously be lying. Even with Cruz I tend to think they'd come back to the flock.

But Trump really, truly, isn't a GOP politician and isn't aligned with any of their formal interest groups. If anybody can split the GOP, it's Trump.

I guess it's just hard for us to imagine because aside from the Southern strategy you'd have to go back to something like Teddy and the Bull Moose Party or even earlier to see that kind of turmoil. Especially if you're my age and missed Ross Perot, the idea of elections besides party A nominates their candidate with minimal fuss, party B nominates theirs, and it's a straightforward election is historical rather than seeming possible.

 

[Iolo]

Will we know Monday night who won?

I think so. Results reporting should be much faster with the Microsoft app (plus, the 5% bonus Microsoft will award to Hillary). We should know before 11pm cst.

We might actually have a good idea sooner because turnout should be able to be estimated very quickly. In 2008 there were scads of Obama supporters swamping the caucuses.

 

[Aaron Strife]

So, I went over to the ladies house who is hosting the phone bank tomorrow. She also does my hair, because she's a retired hairdresser and I hate going to the beauty shop. PLUS, last week I dyed my hair purple to celebrate one of my friends being testicular cancer free for an entire year. Anyway, we were talking and setting things up, and her son came in. He's a year older than me, and just moved back to Ohio from Vermont. He's a huge Bernie fan. He and I spent the better part of an hour talking politics, between making my hair a normal color again.. We disagreed on a lot, but he kept me on my toes.

Anyway, long story short, he asked me out...but I think it's mainly so I can't phone bank on Sunday too. So, I have a date with someone who is #FeelingtheBern.

I will not compromise my integrity or Christianity, though. I'm thirsty, not dehydrated.

Well, if you're going to go out with someone with political differences, at least it's within the party.

I guess I'm not that invested in either candidate specifically.

 

[PBY]

I think so. Results reporting should be much faster with the Microsoft app (plus, the 5% bonus Microsoft will award to Hillary). We should know before 11pm cst.

We might actually have a good idea sooner because turnout should be able to be estimated very quickly. In 2008 there were scads of Obama supporters swamping the caucuses.

Awesome.

 

[Kangi]

So, I went over to the ladies house who is hosting the phone bank tomorrow. She also does my hair, because she's a retired hairdresser and I hate going to the beauty shop. PLUS, last week I dyed my hair purple to celebrate one of my friends being testicular cancer free for an entire year. Anyway, we were talking and setting things up, and her son came in. He's a year older than me, and just moved back to Ohio from Vermont. He's a huge Bernie fan. He and I spent the better part of an hour talking politics, between making my hair a normal color again.. We disagreed on a lot, but he kept me on my toes.

Anyway, long story short, he asked me out...but I think it's mainly so I can't phone bank on Sunday too. So, I have a date with someone who is #FeelingtheBern. Plus, like he said, we may not want to talk to each other ever again after Monday night.

I will not compromise my integrity or Christianity, though. I'm thirsty, not dehydrated.

 

[User 463088]

Well, if you're going to go out with someone with political differences, at least it's within the party.

I guess I'm not that invested in either candidate specifically.

True. Interestingly, the ladies husband is a hardcore conservative. Whenever she hosts a phone bank or a volunteer greet or a watch party, he disappears and goes hunting. Nice guy, though.

I think we'll definitely know the results on Monday night. I know we knew them that night in 2008. Unfortunately.

Edit: Oh, and this is anecdotal, but we have several people who are phone banking for the first time ever for Hillary tomorrow. My 68 year old mother decided to do it. At first, she was just going to cook some stuff, but she decided to try calling people too.

 

[HylianTom]

Well, if you're going to go out with someone with political differences, at least it's within the party.

I guess I'm not that invested in either candidate specifically.

Agreed. Unless he's one of the outliers, he can probably be reasoned with - especially when Bernie makes his general election endorsement (unless he's one of those folks who claims to trust Bernie - except for that one certain magical topic of GE voting strategy).

Political philosophy is usually a good telephone interview-tier question. I like to know before doing the first in-person interview/date.

 

[User 463088]

He doesn't hate Hillary at all. In fact, he said he really likes her. He just wants to support Bernie to send a message to the DNC about the viability of more far left candidates.He was a Biden guy in 08, then a Hillary guy, then an Obama guy for the GE.

 

[A Human Becoming]

.

Not necessarily saying this is wrong, but I heard months ago Iowa is more about meeting expectations than winning because of how the media reacts to the results. I wouldn't say NH is since historically nominees place first or second, but that can always change. That XKCD comic gave a compelling narrative.

 

[B-Dubs]

He doesn't hate Hillary at all. In fact, he said he really likes her. He just wants to support Bernie to send a message to the DNC about the viability of more far left candidates.He was a Biden guy in 08, then a Hillary guy, then an Obama guy for the GE.

Sounds good, you go get that D. You hear?

Can't hate a Biden guy, those dudes like to party.

 

[Y2Kev]

I just can't wait to hear the msnbc election music.

 

[Bowdz]

Holy shit. I just saw CNN coverage of today's Hillary rally with a lady describing what the ACA had done for her. Her daughter had brain cancer at 25, and got to stay on their plan. At 26, she was covered by Medicare for a year and then she got to get an affordable policy off of the market place while her mom got one as well when she quit her job to spend more time with her daughter. Finally, her daughter's family got marketplace coverage when the daughter's husband's employer insurance rates got jacked up.

It was incredibly emotional and impactful all politics aside.