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PoliGAF 2015-2016 |OT3| If someone named PhoenixDark leaves your party, call the cops

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East Lake

Member
No one, least of all Hillary, would argue that al-Assad was more of a threat than ISIS. Bernie said that he would focus exclusively on ISIS, and then later we could worry about al-Assad.Not to go all meme on you but whynotboth.gif. A President has to be able to handle multple foreign policy issues at once. You prioritize resources, sure, but you do not completely ignore one problem to focus on another.
I think he made the point in the debate. Hillary thinks assad needs to go and a whynotboth policy could easily backfire and should be treated with a gigantic dose of skepticism.
 

sangreal

Member
I think he made the point in the debate. Hillary thinks assad needs to go and a whynotboth policy could easily backfire and should be treated with a gigantic dose of skepticism.

And as Hillary explained the only reason they have these boots on the ground supporting us is because we are supporting their efforts to oust Assad. They're not going to take it on faith that the US will come back and support them once our objectives are complete.
 
"Maybe the back door is the wrong door" - Hillary Clinton
Then again...

CWpArbnWwAEDDzg.jpg
 

NeoXChaos

Member
Kyle Kondik ‏@kkondik 3h3 hours ago
Likely that a Dem president elected in 2016 will be first Dem prez ever to never have control of House - http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/house-2016-clinton/ …
Reality check on all D domestic proposals - unless Rs collapse, the next D prez will likely face an R House for his/her whole time in office

Kyle Kondik ‏@kkondik 3h3 hours ago
If Ds hold White House in 2018 history suggests they will have a poor midterm, when many Govs elected

.
 
I disagree with a lot of the Obama administrations handling of Syria and ISIS. Also, I don't think anyone is calling for US ground forces in the region.

That most coveted of demographics, the independets? Sure is.

Code:
 Quinnipiac University. Nov. 23-30, 2015. N=1,453 registered voters nationwide. Margin of error ± 2.6.

"Would you support or oppose the U.S. sending ground troops to fight ISIS in Iraq and Syria?"

		Support 	Oppose 	Unsure/
No answer% 	% 	% 	  	 
11/23-30/15	54 	41 	6 	  	 
	
Republicans	71 	23 	5 	  	 
Democrats	39 	56 	5 	  	 
Independents	53 	42 	6

My concern is precisely with Hillary, trying to pretend that she'll be on top of shit in the ME, committing to boots on the ground in the general in order to look tuff and accrue favor with that demographic.

That, however, is an aside.

The real question is how can one expect to solve the situation in syria in one fell swoop with less support than what afghanistan took? You had way more there and still you produced nothing, and yet Syria will be settled not only with less, but also while having to deal with Russia? That's extremely unlikely.
 

East Lake

Member
And as Hillary explained the only reason they have these boots on the ground supporting us is because we are supporting their efforts to oust Assad. They're not going to take it on faith that the US will come back and support them once our objectives are complete.
Not sure I get the point you're making. Ousting assad in no way guarantees that these "boots on the ground" can hold Syria together after he goes.
 

pigeon

Banned

And yet Paul Ryan just passed a budget bill that contains a lot of Democratic priorities through a GOP house and sent it to a GOP senate that will probably pass it.

If the GOP ever want to be taken seriously as leaders again, they'll need to start passing compromise legislation. Again I'd refer you to Tip O'Neill.
 

A Human Becoming

More than a Member
Sometime during the debate while sitting in the audience, I felt like Bernie and Hillary supporters are too hostile to each other. I guess it's just the realization the internet really brings out the worst in people.
 
T

thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
Sometime during the debate while sitting in the audience, I felt like Bernie and Hillary supporters are too hostile to each other. I guess it's just the realization the internet really brings out the worst in people.

It's not like Democrats were in harmony for 2008 either.

At least the candidates themselves have kept it mostly civil this time. It just sucks that Schultz fanned the flames of both sides with her overreaction.
 
Sometime during the debate while sitting in the audience, I felt like Bernie and Hillary supporters are too hostile to each other. I guess it's just the realization the internet really brings out the worst in people.
If that's bad I wonder how the atmosphere is during GOP debates. Surprised their audience didn't break into scuffles and fisticuffs. Yet.
 

A Human Becoming

More than a Member
2008 was so much worse. Hell, it's why I'm still not quite on the Hillary train. I mean, I'll punch a ticket when needed to but until then...meh. MEH.
Her supporters starting the rumor Obama is a Muslim is an example of the worse in people. It probably would have come out anyway with Republicans, but it should have been beneath people in the party to stoop so low.
 

Mario

Sidhe / PikPok

What sort of point differential in a theoretical Clinton / Trump general would Clinton have to win by in order to flip Congress? I assume a massive amount given how entrenched they are? Possible in a blowout, and off the back of a year of possible Republican infighting?

If she is blocked by Republicans holding Congress should she win, Empress Clinton should just consider liberal use of Executive Orders.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
What sort of point differential in a theoretical Clinton / Trump general would Clinton have to win by in order to flip Congress? I assume a massive amount given how entrenched they are? Possible in a blowout, and off the back of a year of possible Republican infighting?

If she is blocked by Republicans holding Congress should she win, Empress Clinton should just consider liberal use of Executive Orders.

I think the math put it somewhere in the ballpark of 8 points to retake the House, which could be feasible if Trump is the nominee. The Senate would be far less. That's why she hit him a few times in the debate, she's trying to get the GOP to rally around him before Iowa and NH so he'll be the nominee. I think you'll start to see her focus on him more and more as we get closer, hit the GOP with some of that reverse psychology.
 

Suikoguy

I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
I had it on in the background, but my impression was that it was mostly not very interesting. Sanders did a notably terrible job on explaining the benefits of having the government pay for stuff. Clinton fucked up on Obamacare in basically the same way.

If Sanders' position is going to be that maybe taxes will go up but it will be worth it, he's got to be able to make that seem real to people. It's really weird for a candidate who says he's a socialist to not be able to make an argument that sometimes the government delivers goods more efficiently than the private sector. When he has to step away from "raise taxes on the rich to pay for X", he does very poorly.

Yeah, especially certain market segments. Sometimes the government is the only entity capable of efficiently handling and providing some things. Say for example, Single Payer Health Care. The government would have the leverage to lower prices while simultaneously forcing efficiency via a single online medical portal and health records sharing. As of now, there are several 3rd party health record portals, and if you have multiple doctors like my mom, you have 3 or 4 portals you have to deal with.

In other news:

Some of the markets are coming around to it either being Trump or Cruz with the nomination. The GOP must be fervently shitting bricks.

duRuBb2.png


https://www.predictit.org/Market/1233/Who-will-win-the-2016-Republican-presidential-nomination
 
This narrative that there's a conspiratorial effort against Sanders regarding polling, media etc really needs to stop. As a Bernie supporter, it's just embarrassing. You have to keep in mind that Bernie is about as far left as American politics get. If you rank the senate, he is literally the most progressive member. He is the left-most edge of electable politicians. It shouldn't be hard to consider that maybe, just maybe, there simply aren't enough far-left progressives in this country to strong-arm Bernie into the nomination. I'd say he has a chance, but it is admittedly slim. That said, all the tinfoil hat bullshit paints Bernie as a guy who attracts the kind of people that might one day join a cult. That's not helpful. No one wants to be counted amongst that.
 
And yet Paul Ryan just passed a budget bill that contains a lot of Democratic priorities through a GOP house and sent it to a GOP senate that will probably pass it.

If the GOP ever want to be taken seriously as leaders again, they'll need to start passing compromise legislation. Again I'd refer you to Tip O'Neill.
Surely you cannot expect this to continue. It's Ryan's first at bat appearance. I'm going to assume he won't be able to wheel and deal that freely next time, or the time after that.
 

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
I don't know if the narrative in conservative circles is that they lost. I mean, besides the EXTREME conservative circles that always say they lost. Like for most of Obama's deals, we all knew we got fleeced and felt as such. Does ConservaGAFequivalent feel that way about this?

This kinda feels like a legit deal from the 90s. It's...a deal.

Also Hillary crushed. I love me some Hillary but Bernie needs to more effectively communicate the benefits of social democracy.

ANYWAY, I think Obamacare had a really good first two years in terms of premium growth but this year it seems to be moderating, unfortunately, a little bit. If you look at a 3 year CAGR, it's still better than it would have been, but it's a very significant jump this year. I looked at my premiums that I now have to pay at work and I thought it was a mistake. My per-pay-period expenditure went up by like a third. If Hillary wants to play into the third year without acknowledging the first two, that's unfortunate but I get why. It is a much harder position to take, I think, to go, "b..b...b..3 year CAGR." Just play into that public bitching about everything.
 
All worth it for the Supreme Court. You only get one shot in a generation at tipping that balance.

Yup. Replacing Scalia and Kennedy is top priority. Plus, in the meantime, let the courts continue to rule against gerrymandered maps in several states. This might lead to the Democrats having a fair chance in 2020, on the state and congressional level. Just need Clinton to make all eight years, and I think we're good.
 

BSsBrolly

Banned
Oh man, I'm getting excited for 2016. The possibility of Trump actually winning the nomination has me giddy. Now, I just hope Cruz doesn't get anywhere near winning and I can relax.
 

HylianTom

Banned
Oh man, I'm getting excited for 2016. The possibility of Trump actually winning the nomination has me giddy. Now, I just hope Cruz doesn't get anywhere near winning and I can relax.
1789932A-26DE-4F29-AA4F-C36A4EC7617F.png.jpeg


*snicker*

And you just have to know that when Hillary goes after Trump, they can't help but love him more for it. She and Obama are Br'er Rabbiting the shit out of the GOP electorate on this, and they're falling for it splendidly.
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
LOL at Kristol thinking republicans won't just fall in line and vote for Trump. That's cute.

They'll see five minutes of Hillary in the general election debates and they'll all carry the water buckets for the party. It will never change.
 
LOL at Kristol thinking republicans won't just fall in line and vote for Trump. That's cute.

They'll see five minutes of Hillary in the general election debates and they'll all carry the water buckets for the party. It will never change.

I don't understand why you think this. It certainly has no historical basis. Party realignment and voter realignment has been a given throughout the entire history of the USA. I don't know why you think that's it's all of a sudden not a factor.
 

Tarkus

Member
Rubio seems like an expert on foreign policy. He was brilliant on Face the Nation just now. I'll post the video when I can find it later.

Cruz continues to lie about supporting the legalization of immigrant workers in 2013, even though he's on the record saying it.
 
*snicker*

And you just have to know that when Hillary goes after Trump, they can't help but love him more for it. She and Obama are Br'er Rabbiting the shit out of the GOP electorate on this, and they're falling for it splendidly.

This is one of the great upsides of a Trump nomination: the fallout among the conservative commentariat - and conservative movement at large - is going to be incredible to watch.

What would the conservative pundits do?

Most, I think, would choose to go into exile, withdrawing their support, at least temporarily, from the Republican Party. And that would be an event every bit as significant as the split in the Republican electorate that a Trump candidacy would reflect and intensify. It would mark nothing less than the crack-up of the conservative movement as it's been constituted for the past 35 years.

The Wall Street Journal's influential editorial page and its leading columnists, for example, are ideologically committed to open immigration and an idealistic foreign policy. That would make it impossible for most of them to go along with a Trump candidacy.

Something similar could be said about the literal and figurative descendants of the original neoconservatives at The Weekly Standard and Commentary. These magazines and their most prominent regular contributors are best described as hard-power Wilsonians. They truly believe that American hegemony and military involvement across the globe is nearly always good for the United States, good for Israel, and good for the world as a whole — because of the strength and worth of America's universalistic ideals. Trump's xenophobic vision of the country as an armed camp ringed by walls designed to keep out Mexicans and Muslims is inimical to their idealistic vision of the country and its mission.

The same is true of Fred Hiatt's Washington Post editorial page. It holds, too, for Post columnists Charles Krauthammer and George F. Will. Though the latter is a harsh critic of the neocons, he's made his intense dislike of Donald Trump clear from the beginning of his campaign. It's unthinkable that Will would end up supporting his candidacy.

The real question to ask of those opinion journalists in the neocon orbit is which of them would be willing to publicly endorse a Hillary Clinton candidacy against Trump. It's hard to imagine Commentary's John Podhoretz supporting any Democrat for president, but I can certainly imagine him using the pages of his magazine to denounce Trump all the way through the fall. Max Boot has made clear at numerous points in the past that he advises and supports Republicans primarily because of foreign policy; if the Clinton camp asked him post-convention to climb on board to help her defeat Trump, I wouldn't be at all surprised if he took her up on the offer.

William Kristol is trickier. Ever on the lookout for a populist figure to whom he can attach himself and in whose ear he could whisper in the Oval Office, Kristol was at first guardedly optimistic about Trump's candidacy. That abruptly ended when The Donald lit into John McCain for becoming a POW during the Vietnam War. Since then Kristol has repeatedly attacked Trump — and repeatedly predicted the certain and imminent demise of his campaign.

When it comes to the National Review, still movement conservatism's flagship magazine, its most prominent staffers have already hit Trump very hard. NR editor Rich Lowry and Trump attacked each other publicly over whether Carly Fiorina castrated him in the September GOP primary debate. Back in late summer, Jonah Goldberg savaged Trump and his supporters (whom he memorably dubbed the "Trumpen Proletariat") for their unconservative ways. And Ramesh Ponnuru has made a point of dismissing the candidate as a nuisance and his campaign as boring.
http://theweek.com/articles/592973/why-conservative-pundits-hate-donald-trump
 
I don't really go on Kos anymore, simply because every diary is about how Bernie Sanders sneezed and the oligarchs are running in terror....

But I ventured there this morning. The conspiracy theories about Hillary's "And may the force be with you" line are just freaking amazing.

Some are saying it's because Disney owns ABC and Star Wars, so they forced her to say it as an act of obedience to her corporate overlords. Some are running with the idea that she was forced to say it because JJ Abrams is a supporter of hers.

I just....lawd.
 

Makai

Member
My friend told me he is rooting for Bernie but would have difficulty deciding between Hillary and Trump. Was a Ron Paul supporter a few years ago and hates Obamacare. Some candidates just have that integrity x-factor for a lot of people who don't think about where they fit on an ideology compass.
 
Maybe wishful thinking but I have hope gridlock under Hillary won't be, at least quite as bad as we've seen under Obama.

The GOP strategy was to get back the House, then shut everything down until they win back the white house again. It didn't work for 2012, and if it doesn't work again in 2016, I'm going to have to think that they, or at least Paul Ryan, will try to implement a new strategy.

Congress' favorability ratings are in the gutter. I'd have to assume that Ryan will want to do what he can to bring up those numbers because if he wants to make a case to be President one day, which I think he does, he'll want to have some sort of record or list of accomplishments under his time as speaker of the house. I don't think a record of nothing but gridlock will help him. After being away from the Whitehouse for so long and being seemingly out of Bushes, he's the best prospect and closest GOP politician to the White House.. But idk, what do I know.
 
My friend told me he is rooting for Bernie but would have difficulty deciding between Hillary and Trump. Was a Ron Paul supporter a few years ago and hates Obamacare. Some candidates just have that integrity x-factor for a lot of people who don't think about where they fit on an ideology compass.

No offense, but your friend is an idiot.
 
My friend told me he is rooting for Bernie but would have difficulty deciding between Hillary and Trump. Was a Ron Paul supporter a few years ago and hates Obamacare. Some candidates just have that integrity x-factor for a lot of people who don't think about where they fit on an ideology compass.

People just want to be cool by voting for someone non establishment because they think they are above voting for a perceived stuffy politician and too evolved to be "associated" with either party. They don't care about policy at all and are only interested in making themselves feel better than people in power by denouncing them all.

It is one of the hardest forms of thinking to fight against, because it seems to be so many people's natural gut reaction to politics for whatever reason.
 
I concur, swinging 180 from Libertarian Right to Socio-Democrat Left says allot about a "voter" "(who probably won't even vote anyway)

Yeah, like... I have some hard-left friends (I work in academia so there are quite a lot of them) and I can at least understand their ideological position when they say it's Sanders or bust for them. I don't think that's really a logically defensible position with the Supreme Court up for grabs, but at least I understand where they're coming from ideologically. But if you're swinging between Ron Paul to Bernie Sanders and having trouble differentiating Clinton and Trump, then you either don't understand public policy or civics (or maybe both).
 

Foffy

Banned
My friend told me he is rooting for Bernie but would have difficulty deciding between Hillary and Trump. Was a Ron Paul supporter a few years ago and hates Obamacare. Some candidates just have that integrity x-factor for a lot of people who don't think about where they fit on an ideology compass.

You can hate Obamacare, but you should have a good reason. It being not good enough of itself is a fair complaint. I would imagine he has rose-tinted glasses for what was, for an age where getting tinnitus prevented you from getting heart medicine.

It's a step up, but we're ankle deep in filth still.

That said, how does one really have to compare Hillary and Trump as a choice? One is clearly for one for major reasons, whatever the fuck they are.
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
I don't understand why you think this. It certainly has no historical basis. Party realignment and voter realignment has been a given throughout the entire history of the USA. I don't know why you think that's it's all of a sudden not a factor.

I pay attention to both ends of the political spectrum and have since 2004. Yes, that means wading through the likes of Hannity forums, Free Republic, et al.

It clearly has a "historical basis." McCain in 2008 and Romney in 2012? Remember those? Republicans were shouting from the rooftops during the primaries about those "RINOs" and how they'd never vote for anybody like them, because they wanted a real conservative! Then, the election came around, and lo and behold, what did they do? Voted for the GOP candidate because "We can't let Obama in/remain in the White House."

The exact same thing will happen with Hillary.
 

120v

Member
Maybe wishful thinking but I have hope gridlock under Hillary won't be, at least quite as bad as we've seen under Obama.

The GOP strategy was to get back the House, then shut everything down until they win back the white house again. It didn't work for 2012, and if it doesn't work again in 2016, I'm going to have to think that they, or at least Paul Ryan, will try to implement a new strategy.

Congress' favorability ratings are in the gutter. I'd have to assume that Ryan will want to do what he can to bring up those numbers because if he wants to make a case to be President one day, which I think he does, he'll want to have some sort of record or list of accomplishments under his time as speaker of the house. I don't think a record of nothing but gridlock will help him. After being away from the Whitehouse for so long and being seemingly out of Bushes, he's the best prospect and closest GOP politician to the White House.. But idk, what do I know.

i honestly thought 2012 would be their come to jesus moment but they walked away from it like falling off a 20 story building head first and getting up and walking away like nothing happened. they're just sore losers and will double down after every loss. ... maybe if the democratic nominee were joe schmoe things would turn around but hillary's been their public enemy no. 2 for awhile now

i dunno how things turn out for ryan but being speaker is probably the worst job to have in washington. it pretty much requires you to make decisions that will piss off everybody unless you're working with a super majority. maybe things will play out different but his political aspirations are probably going to be toast soon
 
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