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PoliGAF 2015 |OT| Keep Calm and Diablos On

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N

NeoXChaos

Member
Aaron Strife said:
Man is it just me or does the news media really want Jeb to be the GOP nominee? There was a story on politico that said something like "It's gonna be Jeb vs. Hillary, deal with it"

He did just propose to raise the retirement age of social security which makes him Very Serious
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Yes. Why? ratings. Even I want to see such a race. It will either be exciting or turn off voters and general election turnout will be low as a result.
 
B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Aaron Strife said:
Man is it just me or does the news media really want Jeb to be the GOP nominee? There was a story on politico that said something like "It's gonna be Jeb vs. Hillary, deal with it"

He did just propose to raise the retirement age of social security which makes him Very Serious
Click to expand...

It's a good narrative and the only way the general will be a real contest.
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
NeoXChaos said:
In Minnesota. Crowd overflow outside.

CGXCVP4WwAEUWMR.jpg:large
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You know who else had overflow crowds? Ron Paul.
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
Metaphoreus said:
I still think you're describing an evidentiary issue. The remedy is obvious: the state would have to redraw its districts so as to equalize voter populations. So long as the plaintiffs have the evidence to show distorted voting strength, they have the evidence to guide the redistricting effort.

Also, I think I'm going to use my newly free metadata to call everyone ever all day tomorrow.
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I was thinking more along the lines that the SCOTUS agrees that eligible voter should be used over total population data. The plaintiffs can argue and win this position without any evidence (it's a legal argument, after all) but it won't matter if there's no remedy.

I don't believe the plaintiffs have or necessarily could have evidence to prove distorted voter strength. Any such acceptance of evidence would most likely be bullshiting. I mean Wickard type bullshitting.
 
Y

Yellowtail

Member
The A+ Nate Silver rated gold standard Sezer & Co. poll of Iowa:

Clinton - 57%
Sanders - 16%
Biden - 8%
Webb - 2%
O'Malley - 2%

Their poll taken eight years ago today:

Edwards - 29%
Obama - 23%
Clinton - 21%
Richardson (lol) - 10%

That was the poll that sparked the infamous leaked memo in the Clinton camp suggesting it'd be wise to skip Iowa. It probably would have been.

It's crazy to remember that Edwards was a serious thing.
 
C

CrimzonSamurai

Member
Yellowtail said:
The A+ Nate Silver rated gold standard Sezer & Co. poll of Iowa:

Clinton - 57%
Sanders - 16%
Biden - 8%
Webb - 2%
O'Malley - 2%

Their poll taken eight years ago today:

Edwards - 29%
Obama - 23%
Clinton - 21%
Richardson (lol) - 10%

That was the poll that sparked the infamous leaked memo in the Clinton camp suggesting it'd be wise to skip Iowa. It probably would have been.

It's crazy to remember that Edwards was a serious thing.
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Dat "Two Americas" speech, mang.
 
R

RustyNails

Member
Edwards had president written all over him. Right now we'd have had one more serious contender on the bench had he not acted like a thunderously stupendous fuck.
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
Yellowtail said:
The A+ Nate Silver rated gold standard Sezer & Co. poll of Iowa:

Clinton - 57%
Sanders - 16%
Biden - 8%
Webb - 2%
O'Malley - 2%

Their poll taken eight years ago today:

Edwards - 29%
Obama - 23%
Clinton - 21%
Richardson (lol) - 10%

That was the poll that sparked the infamous leaked memo in the Clinton camp suggesting it'd be wise to skip Iowa. It probably would have been.

It's crazy to remember that Edwards was a serious thing.
Click to expand...

but she was the front-runner last time and look how that turned out.
 
N

NYCmetsfan

Banned
This is the guy with that voter case

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/dc/blu...al&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

The case also fits into Blum’s undeniably successful crusade to dismantle longstanding civil rights laws and remove race as a factor in governmental decision-making.

“That’s the bulk of the reason I pursued this,” Blum told TPM last week after the Supreme Court announced it was taking the case. “The effect that this policy has on race is surely one of the reasons I’ve been interested in it and many others have. But also a question of fairness in our democracy drove the filing of the suit.”
Click to expand...

This is what meta is defending, this man who's pissed off that black people and latinos get representation.

I don't have the time to get into the merits of the case but I can firmly say the entire underpinning of this case isn't about fair representation, its about increasing white power at the expense of non-whites.
 
Metaphoreus

Metaphoreus

This is semantics, and nothing more
SCOTUS Can Say "Ass" but not "Shit" or "Fuck":

Josh Blackman said:
Today’s Court is much more prudish. In Fox v. FCC, Justice Scalia bleeped out the words “fuck” and “shit.”

Justice Scalia said:
The first order to this effect dealt with an NBC broadcast of the Golden Globe Awards, in which the performer Bono commented, “`This is really, really, f* * *ing brilliant.'” … The first occurred during the 2002 Billboard Music Awards, when the singer Cher exclaimed, “I’ve also had critics for the last 40 years saying that I was on my way out every year. Right. So f* * * `em.” … “Why do they even call it `The Simple Life?’ Have you ever tried to get cow s* * * out of a Prada purse? It’s not so f* * *ing simple.”
Click to expand...

In Elonis [the Facebook-rap case decided today], the Chief bleeped out several bad words:

Chief Justice Roberts said:
Y’all sayin’ I had access to keys for all the f***in’ gates … Whoever thought the Halloween Haunt could be so f***in’ scary?”
You know your s***’s ridiculous … Took all the strength I had not to turn the b**** ghost … S***, I’m just a crazy sociopath … that gets off playin’ you stupid f***s like a fiddle … And if you really believe this s***
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But Justice Alito used the phrase “ass.”

Justice Alito said:
“‘If I only knew then what I know now . . . I would have smothered your ass with a pillow, dumped your body in the back seat, dropped you off in Toad Creek and made it look like a rape and murder.’ ”
Click to expand...
Click to expand...

Black Mamba said:
I don't believe the plaintiffs have or necessarily could have evidence to prove distorted voter strength. Any such acceptance of evidence would most likely be bullshiting. I mean Wickard type bullshitting.
Click to expand...

What's with this extreme skepticism about sampling? I mean, 538's headline wasn't even supported by its article.
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
Metaphoreus said:
What's with this extreme skepticism about sampling? I mean, 538's headline wasn't even supported by its article.
Click to expand...

Normally, I'm all for sampling, but measuring "eligible voters" is tricky and subject to immense biases (in the mathematical definition). Look at the accuracy of Senate and House District polling. That is a version of sampling and it fails all the time and it is in the company's interest to get it right and it's far less likely to suffer from the biases an eligible voter sampling could potentially have. It might end up being more accurate or more accurate in most cases, but it's hard to know for sure.

Of course, it's not even done anymore (to any significant degree in this area) and I don't see how the gov'ts can be forced to do so. I just don't see the remedy unless the remedy is to go by citizen age, which IMO is a terrible decision.
 
J

Jooney

Member
NYCmetsfan said:
This is the guy with that voter case

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/dc/blu...al&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer



This is what meta is defending, this man who's pissed off that black people and latinos get representation.

I don't have the time to get into the merits of the case but I can firmly say the entire underpinning of this case isn't about fair representation, its about increasing white power at the expense of non-whites.
Click to expand...

Meta by his own admission is only interested in hearing the arguments though, which is fair and valid. Why he vigorously counters arguments made against the plaintiff is a mystery though.

---

So Dick Lugar was on the radio talking about bipartisanship. His organisation has come up with a bipartisan index of each senator and house member. The index looks at the rate of co-sponsored bills and other metrics:

We sought to develop an objective measure of how well members of opposite parties work with one another using bill sponsorship and co-sponsorship data. We gravitated toward bill sponsorships and co-sponsorships for two reasons. First, they allowed us to construct a highly objective measure of partisan and bipartisan behavior. Second, sponsorship and co-sponsorship behavior is especially revealing of partisan tendencies. Members’ voting decisions are often contextual and can be influenced by parliamentary circumstances. Sponsorships and co-sponsorships, in contrast, exist as very carefully considered declarations of where a legislator stands on an issue.

The Bipartisan Index measures the frequency with which a Member co-sponsors a bill introduced by the opposite party and the frequency with which a Member’s own bills attract co-sponsors from the opposite party
Click to expand...

Cutting to the chase, the index rankings for the senate can be found here: http://www.thelugarcenter.org/asset...urt School Bipartisan Index Senate Scores.pdf

Top 20
1sY5RSo.png
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Bottom
X8123Yg.png
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Sanders will never be prez now.
 
B

BertramCooper

Banned
Jooney said:
So Dick Lugar was on the radio talking about bipartisanship. His organisation has come up with a bipartisan index of each senator and house member. The index looks at the rate of co-sponsored bills and other metrics:

Cutting to the chase, the index rankings for the senate can be found here: http://www.thelugarcenter.org/asset...urt School Bipartisan Index Senate Scores.pdf

Top 20

Bottom

Sanders will never be prez now.
Click to expand...

There's little doubt in my mind that a Sanders presidency would be toxically partisan, and he'd be a guaranteed one-term president.

I get why people admire Sanders. I really do. But you can admire Sanders while acknowledging that he wouldn't be an effective president, especially in the current political climate.
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
I have no doubt that Sanders wont ever get the nomination. Hillary knows it, the media knows it, his supporters begrudgingly know it and quite frankly he privately knows it. I get the admiration for the man and for Warren but the "long game" as some people like to denounce is important.

Idk if I would call his hypothetical presidency toxically partisan though. Obama's last six years could describe that.
 
B

BertramCooper

Banned
NeoXChaos said:
I have no doubt that Sanders wont ever get the nomination. Hillary knows it, the media knows it, his supporters begrudgingly know it and quite frankly he privately knows it. I get the admiration for the man and for Warren but the "long game" as some people like to denounce is important.

Idk if I would call his hypothetical presidency toxically partisan though. Obama's last six years could describe that.
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A self-described socialist American president.

Can you even imagine how Republicans would respond to that?
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
BertramCooper said:
A self-described socialist American president.

Can you even imagine how Republicans would respond to that?
Click to expand...

President Sanders: Speaker McCarthy, Leader McConnell, I want a $15 minimum wage bill on the House and senate floors passed and signed on my desk by April 20, 2017.

Speaker McCarthy, Leader McConnell: "Laughs in his face, walks away"

Like this I suppose. If Bernie thinks he can keep his promises then I guess he would be willing to try.
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
eBay Huckster said:
it may surprise you to know I stopped reading this post at the point where Bernie goddamn Sanders somehow wins the 2016 election without carrying at least a Democratic Senate
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That is probably possible with Sanders but the scenario wouldnt change with a Schumer. McCarthy would not put it to the floor and if he did it would fail. Schumer would but it would be filibustered and you need to 60 votes to end it.
 
N

NYCmetsfan

Banned
Jooney said:
Meta by his own admission is only interested in hearing the arguments though, which is fair and valid. Why he vigorously counters arguments made against the plaintiff is a mystery though.

---

So Dick Lugar was on the radio talking about bipartisanship. His organisation has come up with a bipartisan index of each senator and house member. The index looks at the rate of co-sponsored bills and other metrics:



Cutting to the chase, the index rankings for the senate can be found here: http://www.thelugarcenter.org/asset...urt School Bipartisan Index Senate Scores.pdf

Top 20


Bottom


Sanders will never be prez now.
Click to expand...
I don't know how people can divorce the history and intent of the law from its merits.

The law isn't philosophy it has a concrete purpose and shouldn't be something that people pretend is all logical and above the fray.
 
Y

Yellowtail

Member
I can't even imagine what a Sanders nomination or Presidency would look like. Many Democratic senators and representatives would run a mile from him. The Democratic caucus would be in chaos. Midterm losses would be unprecedented. His supporters would denounce him as soon as he has to compromise. I actually think the Republicans would love it.
 
N

NYCmetsfan

Banned
You guys realize Sanders isn't crazy and most of his views are pretty mainstream. If he got elected that would mean the country would have shifted left in both the house and senate. There would be compromise but it wouldn't be a disaster.

You act like he's not been in the senate for a few terms.
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
Yellowtail said:
I can't even imagine what a Sanders nomination or Presidency would look like. Many Democratic senators and representatives would run a mile from him. The Democratic caucus would be in chaos. Midterm losses would be unprecedented. I actually think the Republicans would love it.
Click to expand...

Not to mention all the hand wringers who would argue Sanders only lost because the party didn't support him. These people are as delusional as Tea Partiers when it comes to electing true believers.

If you fill the house and senate will people who share your ideological slant, the president doesn't matter. He passes the legislation he is given.
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
NYCmetsfan said:
You guys realize Sanders isn't crazy and most of his views are pretty mainstream. If he got elected that would mean the country would have shifted left in both the house and senate. There would be compromise but it wouldn't be a disaster.

You act like he's not been in the senate for a few terms.
Click to expand...

I would like to believe but I dont.
 
C

Coriolanus

Banned
NeoXChaos said:
I would like to believe but I dont.
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Nah, he's not far off the mark with that.

Same could be said for Ron Paul, tho. Of course, in his case we eventually get to the views that aren't mainstream, at which point they're completely batshit fucking crazy.

Yellowtail said:
I can't even imagine what a Sanders nomination or Presidency would look like. Many Democratic senators and representatives would run a mile from him. The Democratic caucus would be in chaos. Midterm losses would be unprecedented. His supporters would denounce him as soon as he has to compromise. I actually think the Republicans would love it.
Click to expand...

As 2014 showed, you don't need a leftist for most of that to happen. You just need a bunch of fuckstupid cunts that think they can pick seats by running republican lite.

NeoXChaos said:
President Sanders: Speaker McCarthy, Leader McConnell, I want a $15 minimum wage bill on the House and senate floors passed and signed on my desk by April 20, 2017.

Speaker McCarthy, Leader McConnell: "Laughs in his face, walks away"

Like this I suppose. If Bernie thinks he can keep his promises then I guess he would be willing to try.
Click to expand...

I don't quite get these kinds of scenarios. Republicans have shown us for years that they've gone balls to the walls crazy. Why should one assume that they'd change their behaviour regardless of which democrat picks up the presidency?

If hillster fails to pick up the senate, she's as shit outta luck as anyone else. If republicans fail to pick a veto-proof majority, a dem prez that will gladly cockblock all of the cray shit that they'll try to pass is better than one that won't.

Obstructionism is the new status quo.
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
Coriolanus said:
Nah, he's not far off the mark with that.

Same could be said for Ron Paul, tho. Of course, in his case we eventually get to the views that aren't mainstream, at which point they're completely batshit fucking crazy.



As 2014 showed, you don't need a leftist for most of that to happen. You just need a bunch of fuckstupid cunts that think they can pick seats by running republican lite.



I don't quite get these kinds of scenarios. Republicans have shown us for years that they've gone balls to the walls crazy. Why should one assume that they'd change their behaviour regardless of which democrat picks up the presidency?

If hillster fails to pick up the senate, she's as shit outta luck as anyone else. If republicans fail to pick a veto-proof majority, a dem prez that will gladly cockblock all of the cray shit that they'll try to pass is better than one that won't.

Obstructionism is the new status quo.
Click to expand...

She will but what good does it do without the house? I suppose your last point might be the case but one can hope right?

Amazing how Reagan, Nixon and Bush worked with a Democratic Congress but the Republicans wont with a Democratic President.
 
I

ICKE

Banned
Just came across this story that is all sorts of horrible.

Elementary school students at PS 120 in Queens, New York, who couldn't come up with the $10 for the school carnival were heartlessly forced to sit in an auditorium while the rest of their 900 classmates enjoyed an end-of-the-year carnival:

The must-pay rule excluded some of the poorest kids at the elementary, where most parents are Chinese immigrant families crammed into apartments and “struggling to keep their heads above water,” staffers said.

“It’s breaking my heart that there are kids inside,” one teacher said.
The teacher hugged a 7-year-old girl who was “crying hysterically.”
“She was the only one from her class who couldn’t go, so she was very upset,” the teacher said.

The girl told others, “My mom doesn’t care about me.” But the teacher said parents possibly did not see or understand the flier that went home or didn’t have $10 to spare.
“Are we being punished?” one child asked an aide in the auditorium as kids sat there with no movie playing, a staffer said.

On Thursday morning, Monroe used the school loudspeaker to remind teachers to send in a list of kids who did not pay. While teachers were handed a bag of little stuffed animals to give kids who paid for the carnival, one withheld them until she could add her own gifts for the half-dozen or so kids in her class who didn’t go.

“I think everybody should have gotten a prize, regardless,” she said. “They’re still part of our school community.”

Another teacher was sickened by the inequity. “If you are doing a carnival during school hours, it should be free,” she said. “It doesn’t matter if it’s one kid or 200 sitting in the auditorium. They all should have been out there.”

The carnival cost about $6,200, including fees to a carnival company, Send In the Clowns, and reaped a $2,000 to $3,000 profit, he added.

-DailyKos and NYPost
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I suppose someone like Sanders can appear as a fringe candidate if this is the sort of mentality that people have towards their own community members.
 
C

Coriolanus

Banned
NeoXChaos said:
She will but what good does it do without the house? I suppose your last point might be the case but one can hope right?

Amazing how Reagan, Nixon and Bush worked with a Democratic Congress but the Republicans wont with a Democratic President.
Click to expand...

SC Seats. As many have stated in this forum, that's really what's at stake in this election.
 
O

Oblivion

Fetishing muscular manly men in skintight hosery
Huh, who would have thought that Scalia was a muslim sympathizer working under Obama's orders.

Dat 11th dimensional chess.

NYCmetsfan said:
You guys realize Sanders isn't crazy and most of his views are pretty mainstream. If he got elected that would mean the country would have shifted left in both the house and senate. There would be compromise but it wouldn't be a disaster.

You act like he's not been in the senate for a few terms.
Click to expand...

Yes, someone like Rand Paul would like to repeal the Civil Rights Act, but Bernie Sanders doesn't comb his hair, so it's a wash. /mainstreammedia
 
Metaphoreus

Metaphoreus

This is semantics, and nothing more
NYCmetsfan said:
This is what meta is defending, this man who's pissed off that black people and latinos get representation.

I don't have the time to get into the merits of the case but I can firmly say the entire underpinning of this case isn't about fair representation, its about increasing white power at the expense of non-whites.
Click to expand...

Always with the conspiracy theories. And the ad hominems. I had hoped we cleared up the latter issue way back when I was still a PoliGAF newcomer, but I guess not. Suffice to say on this point that if we adopted your preferred jurisprudence--whereby we decide cases based on whether we like the plaintiff--we'd probably have to jettison a substantial part of our existing First, Fourth, Fifth, Sixth, and Eighth amendment rights. To start.
 
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