The American people won't notice initially though because we are still well within Obama's 1,000 years of darkness.
Or will it get double dark?
She had Vince Foster killed to cover up Whitewater. Truth fact.Huh. Didn't know about whitewater. Fishy af. Thanks for the link, new guy.
BENJI NOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!
fucking mods and their monopoly on coercive power, they couldn't handle you, you flew too close to the sun!
but really, what happened?
Not a tech guy, that was Wozniak's department.
And while you can't think of any big-name companies run by techies that imploded, I guarantee you, examples exist. Engineers do not always make for good managers.
Pme stupid thread ideas.I feel terrible about the people who got banned for commenting on "outrage culture" when the whole thing was the stupidity of people. I'm the one who should have been banned, not them.
I feel worse for the people defending the idiots on twitter for actually thinking Clorox was wanting to ethnically cleanse emoji's.
I feel worse for whoever follows Clorox's twitter account in the first place.
I just don't like losing my creepy hymen-related tag. Thread privileges are meh.
Wow, everything about this story is stupid.Mildly racist joke.
The fact that Obama has come to terms with such masterminds of evil ought to produce the sort of revulsion that demands an emetic remedy, lest we die. So does the likelihood that Obama, Hilary Clinton and their friends in the Muslim Brotherhood had a hand in arming the malevolent Islamic State forces Obama’s de facto alliance with Iran now purports to fight.
The “experts” and pundits reacting with alarm to Obama’s apparently self-contradictory rapprochement with deadly evil speak of his ambition to secure a triumph for his foreign-policy legacy, or his failure to appreciate the real nature of the dangers involved in thinking that Iran can be safely installed as the stabilizing power in the Middle East. Most don’t even hint at what may be his most sinister aim, i.e., “to take America down.”
The Obama administration now appears to include people at the highest level disloyal enough to form a de facto alliance with America’s most outspoken and implacable enemies. They have agreed to look the other way while Iran finishes the work needed to construct weapons that put them in a position to force us to choose between complying with their agenda and unleashing nuclear destruction.
...
Note that this question isn’t just about Obama. It’s about the elitist faction that lifted him to power. It’s about their true objective, which is to overturn the exceptional constitutional sovereignty of the American people. It’s about the goal of restoring the norm of elitist tyranny characteristic of human governments throughout the history of the world. From this perspective, the only true friends of the American people are those who embrace and strive to implement the principles of right that justify their constitutional sovereignty. Isn’t it long past time consider a strategy that unites such friends in its defense?
You may believe a coup d’état “could never happen here.” But the danger we face is not some beer hall putsch. It’s is more like the consolidation of tyrannical power Hitler’s faction completed after he was appointed chancellor of Germany. But if such a denouement is already in view for the United States, isn’t it urgently necessary to begin doing what must be done to prevent its completion? As food for urgent thought, I will propose such a strategy in the next article to be published on my blog. Are you willing to think about it yet?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dRXt-BtV38E"We look at the jihad that is being waged right now in Indiana and Arkansas going after people of faith who respect the biblical teaching that marriage is the union of one man and one woman," Cruz said during a panel moderated by conservative radio host Steve Deace on Thursday. "We need to bring people together to the religious liberty values that built this country."
Cruz added that "it wasn't long ago when this was an area of bipartisan agreement."
What does all of this mean for the 2016 electoral map? There would be some fundamentals working in Clintons favor if, as expected, she seeks and wins the Democratic nomination. One is that 18 states and the District of Columbia have gone for Democrats in every presidential election since 1992, for a total of 242 electoral votesonly 28 shy of the required 270. By contrast, only 13 states have voted Republican in every presidential election since 1992, and they amount to only 102 electoral votes. So Democrats have many more paths to 270.
The map for Clinton, as with any Democrat, starts with D.C. and the 18 solidly blue states: California, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington and Wisconsin. Next come the battlegrounds: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia.
In the 2012 presidential contest, the three most closely contested states were Florida and Ohio, which Obama won, and North Carolina, which Mitt Romney won. Together the three amount to 62 electoral votes. So Obamawho finished with 332 electoral votescould have lost all three of those states and still have made it to 270. If Clinton held the 18 states that have voted Democratic since 1992, winning Florida and its 29 electoral votes would by itself seal a victory.
Also perimenopause blossoms.Clintons age could also prove advantageous. Obama lost seniors, once a reliable Democratic voting bloc, in both of his presidential races, while Clinton did well with them in the 2008 primaries and her 2006 Senate campaign in New York. Stoked by older women eager to see a female president in their lifetimes, she could rebuild with that age group in 2016. The impact would be felt most in Florida and Iowa, where exit polls show voters over 65 were about a quarter of the electorate in 2012, and in North Carolina, Ohio and Nevada, where they were between 18 and 21 percent.
How would he know the "actual voting data"?Michael McDonald, who runs the United States Elections Project at the University of Florida, says national 2008 exit polls showed Obama winning 67 percent of the Hispanic vote, but actual voting data show that Obamas share was in the high 70s
Sounds like the same kind of stuff we've all been saying for a while now.
Add states that Democrats have won in 5 of the past 6 elections (New Hampshire, New Mexico, Iowa) and they're at 257 EVs. Add Nevada - which they've won 4 of the past 6 times - and they're at 263. From there just win:
- Colorado (272, they've won it 3/6)
- Virginia (276, they've won it 2/6)
- Ohio (281, they've won it 4/6)
- Florida (292, they've won it 3/6)
- North Carolina (278, they've won it... 1/6)
And she's in.
Why bother with those three when she can just grab Florida and end it?
242+29=270
What else is she going to do with $2+ billion?Why bother with those three when she can just grab Florida and end it?
Meanwhile, in Al Gore campaign headquarters...
There's evidence that there actually is a saturation point for political spending that negatively impacts candidates. Now, studies haven't been able to determine the exact amount where you start to totally kill your campaign but I imagine if someone spends $2 billion for the Presidency in one state during a national election we might have some decent data.Whats the worst thing that could happen if she banked on FL and lost?
The Gore Campaign did a lot of odd spending, it's why they nearly blew New Mexico and Iowa and it's part of why they blew Tennessee. (Which would have rendered Florida irrelevant.)Did the Gore Campaign bank on FL?
http://www.brennancenter.org/press-...ory-where-political-parties-spend-more-tv-adsNationwide, total spending on ads for Bush exceeded spending on ads for Gore by $9 million, $86.1 million to $77.1 million. The Bush team dedicated $10.8 million to winning California?s 54 electoral votes, yet they lost the state by 12 percentage points, 54% to 42%. Al Gore did not spend a single dollar in California on television ads. “Bush’s massive spending in California only Florida and Pennsylvania received more ad dollars erased his advertising advantage over Gore in other important states,” Professor Goldstein says. “As a result, the Vice President was able to outspend Governor Bush in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Washington, and in New Mexico, Oregon and Iowa all states that Bush lost by tiny margins. The second guessing will be muted if Bush becomes president, but political strategists are sure to question that California ad buy.”
With their candidate standing just three electoral votes shy of winning the presidency, the Gore camp can revisit numerous strategic decisions, as well. At the top of the list is the Vice President’s home state, Tennessee, where Gov. Bush, the RNC and independent groups spent more on television ads ($1.1 million) than did Gore and his supporters ($869,000). Gore was also outspent and lost traditionally Democratic West Virginia, and suffered narrow losses in New Hampshire and Nevada. Meanwhile, President Clinton’s home state, Arkansas, saw Bush win after roughly equal spending on behalf of the candidates. In Arizona, which Clinton carried in ‘96 and nearly carried in ‘92, Bush won after no TV ad spending there. Any one of these states would have made the difference for the Vice President without tossup Florida.
In Florida, combined Bush campaign and Republican Party ad spending was nearly even with Gore and Democratic spending in the key West Palm Beach, Tampa-St. Petersburg and Orlando media markets. But in the politically conservative markets of (Mobile, AL-)Pensacola and Jacksonville, Bush forces substantially outspent Gore ($820,000-350,000 in Pensacola, $1.1 million-$130,000 in Jacksonville). And in all-important Miami reaching Miami-Dade and much of Broward counties Bush and the Republicans spent $6 million to Gore and the Democrats’ $3.4 million. Unlike other battleground states, perhaps most noteworthy is that Gore enjoyed nearly no independent TV ad spending on his behalf anywhere in Florida.
Independent groups spent roughly equal amounts on ads for Republican and Democratic candidates in all federal races in the 2000 campaign, but they focused on different contests. With Citizens for Better Medicare (a pharmaceutical industry group), U.S. Chamber of Commerce, Business Roundtable, and Americans for Job Security (a Sec. 527 group backed by Sen. Majority Leader Trent Lott) taking the lead, groups spent $27.5 million on ads for Republican candidates in 2000, with three-quarters of that money $20.5 million dedicated to U.S. House races. Led by Planned Parenthood, AFL-CIO, Handgun Control, and Emily’s List, independent groups spent $29 million on ads for Democratic candidates, with roughly half that sum $14 million spent in the presidential contest.
The disparity in spending by independent groups in the presidential race was striking: $14 million in ads for Gore, compared to $2.1 million in ads for Bush. Group spending accounted for 18% of all ads aired for Gore, with one group, Planned Parenthood, paying for almost 10% of ads for Gore. In sharp contrast, groups paid for just 2.4% of ads for Bush.
Yes, people are obsessed with Florida and Ohio because of 2000 and Ohio's long standing swing-state status plus the fact they're worth a lot of relative EV.Really sucks that Gore couldn't have swung New Hampshire or something. It would have made Florida irrelevant.
I think the "Florida/Ohio decide the election" thing has been somewhat of a self-fulfilling prophecy. Democrats could win the presidency every time if they just make sure they hold onto a core group of 20 or so states. It's a lot easier to win Kerry states + IA/CO/NV/NM than it is to just go straight for the big prizes, if we're going by the winning margins.
Wow, everything about this story is stupid.
I hope it isn't permanent.
Meta better step up his game, if benji's getting banned he'll have to fill the role of the one conservative the liberal poligaf hivemind pretend to like.
There's evidence that there actually is a saturation point for political spending that negatively impacts candidates. Now, studies haven't been able to determine the exact amount where you start to totally kill your campaign but I imagine if someone spends $2 billion for the Presidency in one state during a national election we might have some decent data.
SOON.I hated benji, I think I wrote a really nasty post. But idk if its my increase in drinking but I like him now.
NBA got banned because an outsider came in, didn't understand the ribbing and complained to mods about "bullying" like most community threads a few "regular mods" were relied on and they knew NBA-GAF's culture, the rest didn't.we gotta watch it on the mod talk though, that's how footy gaf got banned (and I think NBA)
If Hillary is indeed weak(er) in Colorado and Iowa, as those recent polls suggested, but Virginia remains strong, then this could be a comforting baseline for her, as long as the bottom hasn't totally fallen out. She might could even pull this map off with as little as 47% of the national popular vote.
SOON.
Really sucks that Gore couldn't have swung New Hampshire or something. It would have made Florida irrelevant.
I think the "Florida/Ohio decide the election" thing has been somewhat of a self-fulfilling prophecy. Democrats could win the presidency every time if they just make sure they hold onto a core group of 20 or so states. It's a lot easier to win Kerry states + IA/CO/NV/NM than it is to just go straight for the big prizes, if we're going by the winning margins.
This was the most important thing I learned eons ago and cast off politics as serious and moved on from libertarianism really. You gotta take the debate as benefiting yourself, helping you to evaluate your positions or refine them. If people think about things differently even for a bit that's just a bonus. And then realize when you've said your peace and feel like there's nothing to add and if other people aren't reading and getting it and you can't make it any clearer, whatever. They might just be set in their ways or you're not explaining it well that day.I also have stopped thinking I'm changing peoples minds.
It's NATIONAL REVIEW, there's no THE.Though I probably will always rant about the national review.
FIFTY-FOUR FORTY OR FIGHT! (That'd be the ultimate GAF tag to get.)You want to know who I blame for 2000? A lot of people. Bill Clinton, Monica Lewinsky, Elian Gonzales.
But above all, I blame Gore's would be predecessor, Young Hickory himself, that compromising bastard James K. Polk. He was once my hero in high school, a man who took greatness for America by taking the country to war on tenuous and perhaps downright false pretenses, but unlike W. he actually had something to show for it.
But his Oregon Compromise marks a shameful about turn on a key campaign promise. If British Columbia belonged to America, then their liberal voters would've voted Democrat and tipped the election to Gore.
If I ever become President, I'm annexing something. #ManifestDestiny2.0
I actually agree with benji about the nature of the state and coercion, but disagree with him on pretty much everything else.I hated benji, I think I wrote a really nasty post. But idk if its my increase in drinking but I like him now. We disagree on the nature of the state and coercion but yolo
The old NBA thread was a fucking embarrassment.NBA got banned because an outsider came in, didn't understand the ribbing and complained to mods about "bullying" like most community threads a few "regular mods" were relied on and they knew NBA-GAF's culture, the rest didn't.
I think that was the best part about it. It transcended terrible into glorious. BM knows what I'm talking about.The old NBA thread was a fucking embarrassment.
Never in my life have I seen a larger discrepancy between how much people know what they're talking about and how much they think they do.
I mean obviously, #NotAllNBAGAF, but as a whole, yeesh.
I'm still like that, it's the rest of you that got better. Thought I was some kind of troll instead of a returning PoliGAFfer yet this caused people to argue with me more than when they learned I was serious.benji used to be like that at the beginning, but he got better.
I think my biggest thing was just reading that you don't change peoples minds with logic. Which is pretty much all you can use on the internet. I mean I'm pretty good at talking and conversing in public but on the internet? Its hard.This was the most important thing I learned eons ago and cast off politics as serious and moved on from libertarianism really. You gotta take the debate as benefiting yourself, helping you to evaluate your positions or refine them. If people think about things differently even for a bit that's just a bonus. And then realize when you've said your peace and feel like there's nothing to add and if other people aren't reading and getting it and you can't make it any clearer, whatever. They might just be set in their ways or you're not explaining it well that day.
I think PoliGAF in general has become less serious, going into all the recent political threads popping up in the OT, everyone else is so tense and serious and angry already.
I'm gonna need to call on my lifeline meta for thisIt's NATIONAL REVIEW, there's no THE.
I'm still ready to fight russia, the UK, or spain. Whoever. We demand Vancouver.FIFTY-FOUR FORTY OR FIGHT! (That'd be the ultimate GAF tag to get.)
FIFTY-FOUR FORTY OR FIGHT! (That'd be the ultimate GAF tag to get.)
1. liberate VancouverI'm still ready to fight russia, the UK, or spain. Whoever. We demand Vancouver.
1. liberate Vancouver
2. Secession.
3.
Believe.
Cascadia, yo!is this like the hippy Lebanon flag?
It wasn't like Iraq, we controlled all of Mexico (which was remarkable for the time) basically because any potential insurgents hated the Mexican government more than the U.S. We could have taken all the border states if we wanted and built one hell of a canal across Central America.
We didn't even have immigration laws then. Hell, we did it the other way around. Immigrated into Texas, declared it sovereign, then joined the U.S. Then used that as pretense to seize more land from a foreign nation.Yeeheess. Wait actually, no. ALL MEXICO. I'm tired of Putin hogging all the annexation fun with Crimea, it's time for some good ole 19th Century comprehensive immigration reform. At least our southern border problem would be a fifth of what it used to be.
Just thinking about this a bit and our recent talk in another thread, I think you read too much into my Mises/Hayek lovin, my hook with the Austrians is on the belief that looking at the boom is infinitely more essential than looking at the bust.I actually agree with benji about the nature of the state and coercion, but disagree with him on pretty much everything else.
As I said many times, I would take the shittiest anarchist (which I'm pretty sure is benji)
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The truth is that the first socialist revolutionsin the Soviet Union from 1917 until the defeat of that revolution in 1956, and in China from 1949 until the defeat of socialism in 1976marked a break-through for humanity. These were the first attempts in modern history to build societies free from exploitation and oppression. And they accomplished extraordinary things against enormous obstacles.
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Yeeheess. Wait actually, no. ALL MEXICO. I'm tired of Putin hogging all the annexation fun with Crimea, it's time for some good ole 19th Century comprehensive immigration reform. At least our southern border problem would be a fifth of what it used to be.
Ugh, more anti-Americanism. Obama will probably do it now.plus we'd have one of the best soccer teams in the fucking world.
Make it happen Obama! World Cup 2018 here we come!
Can Vancouver Island come too?1. liberate Vancouver
2. Secession.
3.
Believe.
WE DREW THE LINE AROUND IT INSTEAD OF ACROSS IT FOR A REASON.Can Vancouver Island come too?
British English at the time strongly condemned the use of split infinitives in English. Northcote, one of the British commissioners, informed those present that the British home office had telegraphed that they were unwilling to compromise on one notable point: that in the body of the treaty itself, there must be no words inserted between the preposition "to" and a verb.
I hated benji, I think I wrote a really nasty post. But idk if its my increase in drinking but I like him now. We disagree on the nature of the state and coercion but yolo
I'll be honest with you, I met quite a few people who proclaimed they're market anarchist, voluntarists, extreme libertarians or whatever, but when it come to actual policy, they tend to support just run of the mill conservative agenda, so I might have been a bit prejudiced.Just thinking about this a bit and our recent talk in another thread, I think you read too much into my Mises/Hayek lovin, my hook with the Austrians is on the belief that looking at the boom is infinitely more essential than looking at the bust.
My Mises/Hayek love comes from their expansion of the Socratic "knowing what you don't know" idea, Mises in his "Socialist calculation problem" and Hayek in the "pretense of knowledge." I think the Fatal Conceit is a powerful thing indeed, and can be dangerous as Road to Serfdom (or if you prefer, Animal Farm) postulates, and the more I've worked with data and statistics, especially in quantitative political science (and its pretending that it's also economics at times..."I'm a political economist and an advocate of Bob Avakian's New Synthesis") the more I seem to see "fatal conceits" all over the place.
And I'm prone to pick at them, I don't really have solutions or answers myself. Socrates didn't either. #humblebrag
You shut your dirty mouth.Ugh, more anti-Americanism. Obama will probably do it now.
You shut your dirty mouth.
Beating people in sports you barely care about is the most American thing ever.
Also this -
America, FUCK YEAH!