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[Tarkus]

Who hasn't Trump unloaded on so far in the field? Ted Cruz?

Would he even pick someone in the field as a VP?

Well, he needs some establishment guy to cover the base, preferably a Hispanic guy to boost that demographic if possible. Although probably not since he's shat on Hispanics pretty hardily.

I'm not sure how much of the black vote he could pick up with Carson, but I do think Carson would run with Trump.

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

Biden and Clinton compete for similar voters, Sanders wont lose much from Biden running, since he has his base assured due to antagonism. He would need less gains/converts to become number one in polls with Biden in. Being mediatized as "first on polls" can have a major positive impact in his campaign.

The Washington Post made a dissection of the latest USA Today poll, which had a rich analysis of trends with black voters. The results are pretty interesting and positive for Sanders, actually:


Again, this is just one poll with a signficant margin of error and that has Sanders with very high vote awareness. I am sticking to my guns though, if Sanders has a good debate performance and he wins with a commanding lead both in Iowa and New Hampshire, black voters and other minorities will respond as any other demographic would.

Leave it to you to find that one morsel of positive spin in a poll that shows Clinton up 18 and Sanders fighting it out for third place with a guy whose not a candidate. You've exceeded our expectation yet again.

 

[Wilsongt]

Leave it to you to find that one morsel of positive spin in a poll that shows Clinton up 18 and Sanders fighting it out for third place with a guy whose not a candidate. You've exceeded our expectation yet again.

Stans are amazing at drumming up hype for their performed idol at the moment. If anything, they're consistent.

 

[Retromelon]

Posting for melkr

The hilldawgs found a new innocent sanders supporter to rough up now that they finished with erasureacer

 

[Wilsongt]

Posting for melkr

The hilldawgs found a new innocent sanders supporter to rough up now that they finished with erasureacer

 

[shinra-bansho]

What if O'Malley has the best debate performance? #gamechange

 

[And_Gignac]

Leave it to you to find that one morsel of positive spin in a poll that shows Clinton up 18 and Sanders fighting it out for third place with a guy whose not a candidate. You've exceeded our expectation yet again.

Not a "spin" as much as a particular reading of what is currently happening.
And I believe that not being-yet a candidate may be doing a favor to Biden.. He will get a boost immediately after he jumps in, but I am not sure he will keep that popularity once he is seriously in it...but whatever, as long as he drags Clinton down.

Posting for melkr

The hilldawgs found a new innocent sanders supporter to rough up now that they finished with erasureacer

kii they are TRYING but I am ruthlessly dragging them tbh.

What if O'Malley has the best debate performance? #gamechange

Thats something that may happen. And Sanders would be the mosf affected by such an event, without a doubt.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

What if O'Malley has the best debate performance? #gamechange

I don't think America will come together to vote for The Wire's villain as the president of the United States tbh.

 

[Roland_Gunner]

Well, he needs some establishment guy to cover the base, preferably a Hispanic guy to boost that demographic if possible. Although probably not since he's shat on Hispanics pretty hardily.

I'm not sure how much of the black vote he could pick up with Carson, but I do think Carson would run with Trump.

It may be simpler than that. Cruz has gone out of his way to kiss Trump's ass and treat him like a serious candidate. Give The Don what he wants and no attacks.

 

[PhoenixDark]

Bush is on record saying so many great things about Rubio that any attack strategy will fail. The donors have to see that Bush isn't a good candidate, he doesn't inspire the base, and he isn't going to convince regular people to vote against their own interests. Rubio can do all those things, despite the immigration issue. He speaks the language, which you can't say about Bush (or Romney or McCain or HW Bush).

Rubio could beat Hillary if US foreign policy gets worse, or if the economy falters. All the abortion hand wringing in the world won't save Hillary if things start going to shit abroad and economically.

Under normal circumstances though? I don't see how Rubio can overcome his antiquated views on every social issue imaginable. It's hard to be the candidate of tomorrow when your policies are from 60 years ago. That being said, all he really needs to do is win enough Hispanics to tip things in states like Virginia, Colorado, and Florida.

 

[brainchild]

What if O'Malley has the best debate performance? #gamechange

That would be amazing.

 

[Wilsongt]

Cue Fuckabee:

We hardly know any of the details about this horrific tragedy – What kind of gun was used? How did the shooter obtain it? What is the motive? Does the shooter have a history of mental illness? Was this an act of terror? With few facts, Obama is quick to admittedly politicize this tragedy to advance his liberal, anti-gun agenda. For this president to make a political pronouncement is at best premature and at worst ignorantly inflammatory.

Obama can shamelessly try and exploit any tragedy he wants, but it’s clear that gun free zones are sitting duck zones.

His passion is grossly misplaced into destroying the Second Amendment. There were 50 shootings in Chicago the past two weekends and this administration failed to utter a word. Gun violence is a problem in this country, but it’s not the fault of the Second Amendment it’s the fault of evil people doing evil things.

Milk dem 15 minutes, Fuckabee. Milk em.

I think he manage to get a line finished on Gun Defense Bingo.

 

[RustyNails]

Jeb has really gone on the offensive this week. I tend to believe the story that Jeb is aware that his donors gave him "one last shot" before they will move on to Rubio or someone else. He has been swinging wildly. Will that move the needle? I dunno. Trump doesn't even bring up Jeb any more. It's Fiorina and Rubio that are on his radar.

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

Not a "spin" as much as a particular reading of what is currently happening.
And I believe that not being-yet a candidate may be doing a favor to Biden.. He will get a boost immediately after he jumps in, but I am not sure he will keep that popularity once he is seriously in it...but whatever, as long as he drags Clinton down.




kii they are TRYING but I am ruthlessly dragging them tbh.



Thats something that may happen. And Sanders would be the mosf affected by such an event, without a doubt.

Do you even realize how much of a "this is good news for John McCain" parody you sound like right now? Whatever happens, it's good for Bernie.

Cue Fuckabee:



Milk dem 15 minutes, Fuckabee. Milk em.

I think he manage to get a line finished on Gun Defense Bingo.

It's not even a gun free zone. You could carry a gun to that school due a 2011 court ruling.

 

[Avon Barksdale]

I always love when gun nuts/conservatives bring up Chicago every time there's a mass shooting. Like they even give a fuck about Chicago.

 

[Wilsongt]

Oh.

Former Gov. Jeb Bush (R-FL) said on a Sirius XM interview this week that, despite numerous calls from Native American groups to do so, he does not believe the Washington NFL team needs to change its name.

“I don’t think it should change it,” the Republican presidential hopeful said on the The Arena. “But again, I don’t think politicians ought to be having any say about that, to be honest with you. I don’t find it offensive. Native American tribes generally don’t find it offensive.”

http://thinkprogress.org/sports/2015/09/30/3707451/jeb-bush-redskins-dan-snyder-money/

 

[noshten]

What if O'Malley has the best debate performance? #gamechange

Hillary would drop further in the polls and lose additional support

 

[Plinko]

The thing about Huckabee's tirade is that he brought up mental illness, but republicans do everything they can to prevent funding to help those with mental illness.

 

[NYCmetsfan]

yea!, cold war. Lets let more people die to show Putin how much of a thug he is and how we have guns too!

Neoconservatism would be back with a fierceness not seen with a rubio presidency.

This stuff is so annoying, its like school yard politics, but it sells when the world "looks" directionless.

 

[PantherLotus]

https://twitter.com/ddiamond/status/649931976636506112/photo/1

Such a great chart.

 

[HylianTom]

https://twitter.com/ddiamond/status/649931976636506112/photo/1

Such a great chart.

It (and other similar graphs) need to be wallpapered on TV/internet next year. The public is stunningly ignorant on this matter, and they can be influenced into crediting the Democrat in the White House for this kind of good trend.

 

[Ecotic]

Uninspiring jobs numbers this morning. 142,000 in September

-37,000 revision for August
-22,000 for July

 

[Fox318]

https://twitter.com/ddiamond/status/649931976636506112/photo/1

Such a great chart.

"Bush clearly laid the foundation for Obama's success. This nation is still cleaning up after the mess Clinton made after becoming President after Ronald Reagan"

 

[PantherLotus]

I've said for a long time that Obama refusing to make Republicans specifically accountable for basically every one of our nation's ills -- blocking stimulus to cut unemployment, blocking minimum wage hikes, destroying unions, blocking progress on climate change legislation, blocking gun control legislation, and on and on and on -- is easily his biggest weakness.

Clinton was as much of a centrist if not more and just completely freaking destroyed them when they were being stupid. Obama is angry at the ether. Name someone!

 

[NYCmetsfan]

It (and other similar graphs) need to be wallpapered on TV/internet next year. The public is stunningly ignorant on this matter, and they can be influenced into crediting the Democrat in the White House for this kind of good trend.

This isn't true and isn't how the public makes decisions

 

[HylianTom]

This isn't true and isn't how the public makes decisions

I don't think it's a centerpoint, but definitely think it helps with narrative.

You probably have more faith in the average voter's knowledge on these issues. If I go up to 1000 people on the street (or via phone, etc) and ask them questions about the economy, I have a pretty dim expectations on their awareness.

 

[Ecotic]

So after this morning's jobs numbers and the consistent global weakness recently, it looks like the Fed may put off rate hikes yet again the next time they meet to decide. That's good news for Democrats, but I'm very glad the election is 13 months away instead of this year, because the global economy is definitely soft right now and this weakness is beginning to impact America. Democrats are going to need next November to be a bullish quarter to have a good election.

 

[hydragonwarrior]

Obama is angry at the ether. Name someone!

Obama is a GAF poster confirmed.

 

[Jack Remington]

I always love when gun nuts/conservatives bring up Chicago every time there's a mass shooting. Like they even give a fuck about Chicago.

Obama is from there. So I guess there's maybe an element of physician, heal thyself in there.

Honestly though, when I read arguments like that and see them get traction, it makes me think that the people agreeing with the argument just aren't that smart. Huckabee himself is smart, but the people he's pandering to aren't. I think I'd need to be about 80 IQ points dumber not to see how stupid the argument is.

 

[Ignatz Mouse]

Obama is from there. So I guess there's maybe an element of physician, heal thyself in there.

Chicago is a dog whistle at this point. It's straight-up racism to trot out Chicago's crime when this happens. It's the same as bringing up "black on black" crime.

 

[ivysaur12]

Everyone. Please watch this anti-David Vitter ad that's real right now:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5UHb1hSBuw0

 

[And_Gignac]

Do you even realize how much of a "this is good news for John McCain" parody you sound like right now? Whatever happens, it's good for Bernie.



It's not even a gun free zone. You could carry a gun to that school due a 2011 court ruling.

Biden running is bad for Clinton, good for Sanders. You have yet to give a real reason why such ocurrance would be bad for Sanders, other than "let me discriminate polling results and use those that fit better my narrative while completely ignoring those polls, a majority of them, that:
-Show Sanders well positionated over Biden
-Show a strong correlation between Biden´s inclusion and Clinton numbers dropping".

Anyway, the goalpost keeps moving Sonic-fast:

Bernie Sanders rails against big money in politics and insists that he doesn’t want an allied super PAC — but the majority of Democrats in early states say he can’t rely on smaller-dollar donors alone if he wants to beat Hillary Clinton.

Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2015/10/insiders-bernie-small-donors-214350#ixzz3nQOaiJkW

Insiders. Oracles

 

[BertramCooper]

Anyway, the goalpost keeps moving Sonic-fast:

Insiders. Oracles

Bernie needs to put aside his big money phobia if he seriously wants to win the presidency.

Even if he does somehow beat Hillary in the primaries (he won't), he's going to need a ton of cash - both campaign cash and superPAC cash - to win the presidency. He's going to have to embrace the system in order to compete financially with a GOP candidate.

You play by the rules as they exist and then work to change them once you're in a position of power. You don't obstinately refuse to play by them because you don't like them. Blind idealism doesn't get you very far in American politics.

 

[noshten]

Biden running is bad for Clinton, good for Sanders. You have yet to give a real reason why such ocurrance would be bad for Sanders, other than "let me discriminate polling results and use those that fit better my narrative while completely ignoring those polls, a majority of them, that:
-Show Sanders well positionated over Biden
-Show a strong correlation between Biden´s inclusion and Clinton numbers dropping".

Anyway, the goalpost keeps moving Sonic-fast:



Insiders. Oracles

Those Republicans can't even imagine a situation where small donors beat out their billionaire donors. It's funny how far their heads are up billionaire class arse

 

[BertramCooper]

Arne Duncan stepping down.

 

[NYCmetsfan]

Yeah, I'm starting not to feel good about 2016. I really feel Rubio is a good candidate to take advantage of any mistakes or outside events that can hurt the dems

 

[Jack Remington]

Yeah, I'm starting not to feel good about 2016. I really feel Rubio is a good candidate to take advantage of any mistakes or outside events that can hurt the dems

You've said this a few times now. What is impressive about Rubio?

 

[BertramCooper]

Yeah, I'm starting not to feel good about 2016. I really feel Rubio is a good candidate to take advantage of any mistakes or outside events that can hurt the dems

He has to win the nomination.

He's looking much stronger than he did a few weeks ago, to be sure, but he's still not in what I would consider a great position for a primary candidate.

 

[Cheebo]

5 Reasons to bet $5 on Marco Rubio. Here's why so many pundits, campaign pros and reporters bet on Rubio eventually winning the nomination.

http://www.politico.com/story/2015/10/marco-rubio-2016-will-he-win-nomination-214364

Battery is the sincerest form of flattery.

Over the past couple of weeks, ever since his sneaky-impressive showing in the last GOP debate, Marco Rubio has found himself in the crosshairs of both the Republican establishment and anti-establishment wings of his party. No other candidate poses such a threat to either flank, so he should take it as a compliment.

The boyish, infamously thirsty and oratorically agile Florida senator has risen steadily from the 5 percent range to low-double-digits. That’s high enough to attract the usual rubber-chicken mugging from Trump (“He's overly ambitious, too young -- and I have better hair than he does, right?” Trump bellowed on a recent trip).

On the other end of the GOP’s bipolarity, a more polite Jeb Bush is getting meaner to him by the minute. Rubio poses an immediate threat (the worry is he could poach nervous Bush donors) which is why Bush’s campaign has started dispatching trackers to his events. With good reason. He’s Bush Plus -- younger, unburdened by his last name, with comparable general-election appeal. Hence, Jeb earlier in the week, thwacked Marco for lacking the requisite “leadership skills” to be president.

 

[Avon Barksdale]

I'm not sold that a Latino from Florida (Miami nonetheless) is going to be the Republican nominee.

 

[NYCmetsfan]

You've said this a few times now. What is impressive about Rubio?

He's a good speaker (he's impassioned and can give a pretty good stump and isn't a slouch in debates), he doesn't seem radical, he can break through with minorities just enough, isn't going to keep conservatives at home, has a clean difference with Hilary (age).

Like I said, if Hillary slides or a world event happens, Rubio isn't going to be seen as "not-an-option" they'll vote for him. And that worries me.

 

[NYCmetsfan]

He has to win the nomination.

He's looking much stronger than he did a few weeks ago, to be sure, but he's still not in what I would consider a great position for a primary candidate.

And how is it likely he's not? You're not one of those that think trump will? Bush is flaming out, Cruz is the only "conservative" choice that might survive but Blue State repubicans have a large voice in the nomination process. They will pick Rubio

 

[PhoenixDark]

https://twitter.com/ddiamond/status/649931976636506112/photo/1

Such a great chart.

What's the participation rate again...

The economy isn't particularly good right now. Most people feel like things are t going well, and many are stuck in low paying jobs.

 

[B-Dubs]

And how is it likely he's not? You're not one of those that think trump will? Bush is flaming out, Cruz is the only "conservative" choice that might survive but Blue State repubicans have a large voice in the nomination process. They will pick Rubio

This assumes JEB! doesn't take him down in an attempt to survive another debate.

 

[Cheebo]

This assumes JEB! doesn't take him down in an attempt to survive another debate.

You are assuming Jeb is even capable of taking him down. Jeb continues to plummet in polling week after week as Rubio consistently rises.

 

[BertramCooper]

And how is it likely he's not? You're not one of those that think trump will? Bush is flaming out, Cruz is the only "conservative" choice that might survive but Blue State repubicans have a large voice in the nomination process. They will pick Rubio

I picked Rubio in the GOP pick 'em, so I'm clearly not saying that he doesn't have a chance. He has a decent chance. But that's what it is - decent. Not great.

 

[Jack Remington]

He's a good speaker (he's impassioned and can give a pretty good stump and isn't a slouch in debates), he doesn't seem radical, he can break through with minorities just enough, isn't going to keep conservatives at home, has a clean difference with Hilary (age).

Like I said, if Hillary slides or a world event happens, Rubio isn't going to be seen as "not-an-option" they'll vote for him. And that worries me.

What caliber of world event?

Hillary will be able to run on her SoS experience. Rubio has been on a committee for a few years, and he's too much of a warhawk. Hillary takes him on foreign policy easily.

He isn't that great a speaker. He consistently comes off strained, like a little boy trying not to break down crying. He's awkward.

It's also been proven that he doesn't have any extra Hispanic appeal.

 

[RustyNails]

What's the participation rate again...

The economy isn't particularly good right now. Most people feel like things are t going well, and many are stuck in low paying jobs.

Participation rate will keep getting lower because boomers are retiring in big numbers, and will continue to do so for the next 5 years. People that gave up looking after a year or two are in a tough spot. Frankly no one wants them as they're out of job market for a long time.

 

[Roland_Gunner]

You are assuming Jeb is even capable of taking him down. Jeb continues to plummet in polling week after week as Rubio consistently rises.

That is not whats happening at all. Bush actually rose for a bit when Trump broke out and then has lost support as Carson and Fiorina became popular. Rubio was hurt really badly by Trumpmania and has now rebounded a bit. Its possible that his momentum continues but the RCP average doesn't show any kind of steady rise from Rubio:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep..._republican_presidential_nomination-3823.html

 

[Crisco]

Participation rate will keep getting lower because boomers are retiring in big numbers, and will continue to do so for the next 5 years. People that gave up looking after a year or two are in a tough spot. Frankly no one wants them as they're out of job market for a long time.

Man, what can we do about this? If only there were a demographic of people out there who breed like crazy, don't mind hard work for a decent wage, and are only being held back by archaic racist laws......

ohhhhhhhhhh