Fenderputty
Banned
Rubio was my establishment pick behind Trump as my non establishment pick. I don't think any particular GOP candidate has a great change at the national.
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PoliGAF 2015 |OT2| Pls print
- Thread starter ivysaur12
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PhoenixDark
Banned
Jeb's problem is that he isn't performing well in debates, which results in his numbers stagnating or falling during the dead periods between one debate and the next. He has been unable to get his name in the news during regular campaign periods in large part because he's not a good candidate and regular people know it. He's attacking Rubio and sending dog whistles on political correctness but nobody seems to care. Meanwhile Rubio looked and sounded good in the debates (to conservatives) and is picking up donors.
Bush is running the typical republican campaign - massive tax cuts, saber rattling, etc - with some slightly moderate views on social issues thrown in. That mixed with his bland personality has rendered him irrelevant. Damn Romney has to be wondering why he let this chump scare him out the race.
Meanwhile Cruz is well positioned to take Iowa IMO. He's doubling down there, including a 10 city tour of the state this month. Trump is a non presence there. Carson could win the state but I'm more apt to bet on Cruz having a better ground game.
Bush is running the typical republican campaign - massive tax cuts, saber rattling, etc - with some slightly moderate views on social issues thrown in. That mixed with his bland personality has rendered him irrelevant. Damn Romney has to be wondering why he let this chump scare him out the race.
Meanwhile Cruz is well positioned to take Iowa IMO. He's doubling down there, including a 10 city tour of the state this month. Trump is a non presence there. Carson could win the state but I'm more apt to bet on Cruz having a better ground game.
PantherLotus
Professional Schmuck
Participation rate / drop out methodology is held constant, PD. You know that.
Abinash117
Member
Does he lack experience in general? He'll have Republican views so because of that it would be difficult for him the general.
I also think he flipped-flop a lot so it'll be easy for dems to get him on that. The problem of I also see that he doesn't have any proposals yet I think. I doubt he'll be capably of making up plans ; it'll look like he'll just be anti-dem and not giving a lot of policies. It is a problem with most of the field.
I wonder if it is possible if Jeb Bush loses support he'll drop out sometime this year or early next. Rubio would be the target for everyone I think.
Jack Remington
Banned
We don't really need to do anything. The participation rate is only important insofar as it influences our ability to finance retirement and medical spending for the people who aren't working.
It's become a hot topic because Obama must be attacked on some front every single day, and with the UE rate way down, that got a lot harder.
RustyNails
Member
To be fair you can do a lot for the minorities that are out of the workforce. Obamaphone is a great program. We also need to make public transportation more accessible for these neighborhoods. Internet wifi must be a free utility. Give free laptops. Create job centers that align people with jobs or education. Obama has done a lot, but he needs to do more.
Ignatz Mouse
Banned
The participation rate is nowhere near as bad as people make it out to be.
I was mostly referring to the millions of illegals out there who are either afraid to look for work or are being paid under the table because of their status. Or potential immigrants from latino american countries who would be happy to come and work here if the legal immigration system wasn't so fucked.
If they don't do it this year, i highly doubt it will be done until Dec 2016
It denotes excitement!
Tarkus
Member
He should just drop out to avoid further embarrassment.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Not buying the Rubio hype. Guys he's tied with Carly Fiorina.
NYCmetsfan
Banned
The GOP has destroyed that. She has the iran deal which isn't popular, russian reset which doesn't seem to be working, the middle east in turmoil. I'm sure she'll point to a lot of the good work she did but lets not pretend Rubio doesn't get a lot of leeway from the press in debates about this.
None of her accomplishments at state are popular right now. plus she has the email thing.
I don't take your criticisms of him as a speaker because it comes accross as wanting to dislike him rather than a critique of substance.
And where has it been proven he doesn't have hispanic appeal? I don't think he's gonna shift anyone majorly but he can, with dems losing control over certain things be not seen as a trump. And someone who isn't going to deport them and someone who their concern over isis, the economy, etc, might trump (no pun intended). The dems need to keep their amazing numbers with minorities. The GOP only needs likes a 5 or 7 percent shift and probably less in the states that matter.
He is the leading establishment candidate in basically every poll since the second debate. Including this one. It all comes down to do you believe the outsiders will fall apart in the end? If you do then all signs point to Rubio being the nominee.
T
thepotatoman
Unconfirmed Member
That's what we said about Jeb 2 months ago. Rubio's just now starting to come into the spotlight, we'll see how he'll stand up to extended scrutiny.
What I hear you saying is that Rubio has managed to hit fourth place in national polling for the last two weeks, and this guarantees him the nomination.
Abinash117
Member
I think we should wait and see many people get excited and make crazy claims sometimes.
Rubio's position right now is similar to other candidates like Scott Walker and now Jeb Bush.
Lastly, I think the next debate might be important to Jeb Bush like it was to Walker; he might not drop out, but he'll lose donors though if he doesn't do well.
Interestingly, the next debate has a minimum of 3% requirement to be on the main stage. I think a lot of candidates will have to haul ass soon enough. It can get really dangerous for Jeb, Kasich, Huckabee, Christie, Paul if they keep falling.
Rubio's position right now is similar to other candidates like Scott Walker and now Jeb Bush.
Lastly, I think the next debate might be important to Jeb Bush like it was to Walker; he might not drop out, but he'll lose donors though if he doesn't do well.
Interestingly, the next debate has a minimum of 3% requirement to be on the main stage. I think a lot of candidates will have to haul ass soon enough. It can get really dangerous for Jeb, Kasich, Huckabee, Christie, Paul if they keep falling.
BertramCooper
Banned
Jeb! is dead in the water.
I think he's staying in for a while, but his campaign is truly hopeless.
The rank-and-file just doesn't like him - and they can't even muster enough affection to grudgingly accept him the way they did with Romney.
I think he's staying in for a while, but his campaign is truly hopeless.
The rank-and-file just doesn't like him - and they can't even muster enough affection to grudgingly accept him the way they did with Romney.
RustyNails
Member
People who bet on Yaba getting the nomination, today is your last date to change
to Trump.
Retromelon
Member
Not that it matters since neo was forced to aquiesce to the will of the casuals who were afraid to lose their precious avatars
Jack Remington
Banned
You guys see the Marquette poll showing Clinton with massive leads in Wisconsin?
I don't see the Republican path to 270. I spent some time on 270towin just now coming up with different scenarios. Spotting the Republicans Florida and North Carolina right off the bat, I still couldn't find a realistic R path unless they take both Ohio and Virginia.
I don't see the Republican path to 270. I spent some time on 270towin just now coming up with different scenarios. Spotting the Republicans Florida and North Carolina right off the bat, I still couldn't find a realistic R path unless they take both Ohio and Virginia.
Poodlestrike
Banned
I should just not go into Israel threads.
In fact, I'm going to get "do not go into Israel threads" tattooed on my hand.
In fact, I'm going to get "do not go into Israel threads" tattooed on my hand.
Tarkus
Member
Yes, this. thepotatoman was quite vocal about not having any stipulations.
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
Rubio/Kasich ticket would win both.
Jack Remington
Banned
This is probably the most realistic Republican win I can come up with. And it still requires them to take Iowa. As much as I'd like to see that state become ground zero for Emergence Day for giving us Joni Ernst, I still think the D's have the advantage there in a presidential election.
http://www.270towin.com/maps/5nygk
I could see Ohio with Kasich on the ticket. What would help them swing Virginia?
http://www.270towin.com/maps/5nygk
I could see Ohio with Kasich on the ticket. What would help them swing Virginia?
BertramCooper
Banned
I think Kasich on the top of the ticket wins Ohio, no question.
As VP, though? I'm less certain.
As VP, though? I'm less certain.
The underemployment graph is pretty much identical, just shifted up vertically.
Fenderputty
Banned
I'm fine with losing my avatar. If it's Cruz, I only ask that it be the tatted up version
Poodlestrike
Banned
I think that if we are all stuck with Cruz, we should be able to pick our choice of source image.
Or, hey, about about losers have to adopt the winner as their avatar? So if Jeb! wins, everybody who backed another candidate are saddled with a Jeb! avatar.
T
thepotatoman
Unconfirmed Member
The only thing I ever said was a suggestion to do OP recognition instead, and praising Neo for setting it up. I stayed out of it otherwise.
I do think it's better not to do an avatar bet, but it's neo's doing all the work to set it all up, so he can do what he wants with it. It seems he'd rather have more people take part than to have everyone drop out who doesn't like the avatar bet.
NYCmetsfan
Banned
I'm not big into avatar bets.
If it's the poll I'm thinking of.. if she's winning Wisconsin by those kinds of ridiculous margins, we'll likely know she's won by the time the eastern seaboard's polls have closed.
Being very generous to the GOP, I think this is their best starting map. They still need 3 of the 4 remaining states to win.
http://www.270towin.com/maps/qAWwW
I do wonder if Rubio would pick based on the math. I mean, there were better picks for McCain and Romney in 2012 - picks that PoliGAF pointed-out at length, picks that should've been obvious - but they for whatever reasons decided to go elsewhere.
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Picks due tonight? Fuck it - sticking with Trump!
Today is the day.
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=178225136&postcount=553
All submissions needs to be in by 11:59 PM PST.
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=178225136&postcount=553
All submissions needs to be in by 11:59 PM PST.
BertramCooper
Banned
Anyone else listen to Slate Political Gabfest?
Just curious.
Just curious.
Roland_Gunner
Member
I'm going long shot with Ted Cruz, the insurgent / insider hybrid.
One month fo bad growth?
Economy in the shitter.
Obama a horrible president.
The unemployed and homeless are flooding the streets due to the lack of jobs.
Obama destroying our economy.
Vote Jeb/Rubio 2016 and we'll get growth to 20%! A job for everyone! No taxes! Infinite revenue!
Economy in the shitter.
Obama a horrible president.
The unemployed and homeless are flooding the streets due to the lack of jobs.
Obama destroying our economy.
Vote Jeb/Rubio 2016 and we'll get growth to 20%! A job for everyone! No taxes! Infinite revenue!
PhoenixDark
Banned
You seriously think Clinton can run on foreign policy? Her SoS tenure was largely a mirage, and since then the world has fallen apart. Republicans have the advantage on foreign policy.
Rubio can attempt to make her a candidate of a past era but he'd need outside help, specifically more international turmoil and an economic downturn. Russia's actions in Syria and today's weak jobs report suggest that this could come to fruition.
We wouldn't be in this situation if not for the complete dismantling of the democrat party under Obama. Hillary is a weak candidate who could clearly be beaten by a talented governor. But that candidate doesn't exist, nor is the "bench" adequate after 7-8 years of democrats taking losses with no accomplishments to take to voters.
Officerrob
Banned
Put me down for Rubio
Retromelon
Member
Are you dietrob's alt
Coriolanus
Banned
Put me down for el Trumpo. #iwannabelieve
And yeah, republicans have most likely poisoned the well on hill's FoPo with benghazi as far as undecided voters are concerned. The narrative that she is shit at it has been in place for years, and i can't see democrats being able to push that back to conquer the middle now.
And yeah, republicans have most likely poisoned the well on hill's FoPo with benghazi as far as undecided voters are concerned. The narrative that she is shit at it has been in place for years, and i can't see democrats being able to push that back to conquer the middle now.
Fenderputty
Banned
Hey, Member is an awesome tag ... .. . right ... .. .
I have until 11PM to decide if I stick with trump or run with my establishment Rubio. Maybe I'll have a vision or something after those Al Pastor tacos I just had for lunch.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
As a Utah voter, I have to say that Chaffetz is a total disgrace and lunatic.
And like I said right when we originally did this guessing contesting, there was no way Rubio was ever going to lose to people as stupid as Scott Walker and Jeb!. And Jeb! is actually dumber than Scott Walker (as today's comment also shows).
Yeah, after hearing that comment, you can change my guess to Rubio Neo. I would love it to be Bush though. The man has a worse case of foot-in-mouth disease than even Romney had. I'd feel so much better in the general against Bush.
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