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PoliGAF 2015 |OT2| Pls print

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B

Brawndo Addict

Banned
This is bananas. I didn't even think his comment was getting much traction because it wasn't as worded as badly as it could have been. I didn't think there were voters left who hadn't come to a decision about Benghazi so I'm struggling to see what the actual damage was. Admitting something you're not supposed to say but that everybody already knows is true? Or was he just looking ahead to the optics of being speaker next year around election time? Or maybe he knew he wasn't going to win and preferred the dignity of withdrawing?
 
I

ivysaur12

Banned
The Democrats will not help Republicans elect a speaker. ~CHAOS~ is their friend:

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/cr...-for-republicans-to-kick-away-their-majority/

Republicans working to maintain the party’s historically large House majority appear relatively confident about the aspects of the next campaign they can control: incumbent performance, recruitment of challengers, staffing, fundraising, etc. What concerns them are the aspects of the campaign they do not control.

Which brings us to today’s action on Capitol Hill, where the House GOP caucus is taking its first step toward replacing retiring Speaker John Boehner (R, OH-8), who is set to resign at the end of the month. If Republicans ultimately choose poorly in replacing Boehner, or if the more rambunctious members of the House majority do not allow that person to govern, there is a chance, however remote, that the GOP could kick away its otherwise ironclad House majority. But such a monumental disaster for Republicans would require more than just the House becoming even more unruly than it’s already been over the last several years.

To be clear, a continuing GOP House majority remains by far the likeliest outcome of next year’s House election. The headline of a recent, helpful Roll Call House overview by Emily Cahn remains an accurate description of the state of play: “GOP House Majority is Sturdy Heading into 2016.”

Democrats do have a list of about 15-20 credible targets, while Republicans have a shorter list of plausible pickups (these are the Toss-up and Leans seats listed in our Crystal Ball ratings, shown below in Table 1). If Democrats hold the latter and win the lion’s share of the former, they could be about halfway to netting the 30 seats they need to win the House. But then the list of true targets dries up. In order for the Democrats to really threaten the Republican majority, they are going to need a major GOP meltdown.

In three parts, this is what the Republican doomsday scenario might look like:

1. The new speaker, be it House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R, CA-23) or someone else, does an even poorer job of controlling the caucuses’ far-right id than Boehner, and a December shutdown is just a precursor to a year of widely-covered chaos in the House leading into next November. The key term here is “widely-covered” — the House Republican caucus would have to be so dysfunctional that it became a perpetual national story, generating bad headlines for the party and its presidential nominee.

2. Many swing-seat Republicans, including some who have been serving in the House for years and who typically have easy elections, recoil at the bleak post-Boehner landscape and decide against running for another term.

3. The party’s presidential nominee, who may have spent late 2015 and the first half of 2016 cheering the efforts of shutdown-hungry elements of the Republican caucus, ends up being a colossal general election dud.

It would take something this dramatic to put those Likely Republican seats, and the House, in play: a collective Republican self-immolation.

Item No. 1, or at least a short shutdown in December, is probably the most likely. But even if there is a December shutdown that does temporary damage to Republican numbers in the House generic ballot polling — which is exactly what happened during the October 2013 shutdown — it might not have long-lasting effects. Clearly the 2013 shutdown didn’t prevent Republicans from having a strong 2014 midterm.

But that’s not to say a short shutdown would do no damage. National Democrats, who are watching the Republican leadership fight with glee, are looking for “Lee Terry Moments.” Terry, a former Republican congressman from Nebraska, memorably said he could not “handle” giving up his paycheck during the 2013 shutdown. While memories of the shuttered government faded, Terry’s comment did not, and it contributed to his loss to Rep. Brad Ashford (D, NE-2), one of the few bright spots for congressional Democrats on election night last year. Democrats hope an unflattering shutdown spotlight might lead to similar mistakes that they can later turn into campaign ads.

Democrats are facing questions, not unfair ones, about their recruiting this cycle (see the Roll Call piece linked above for what is for Democrats a sobering but accurate assessment). They lack credible candidates in several seats vital to any future Democratic House majority. But there are still months to go, and Republican strife could serve as a great recruiting tool.

So, too, could the retirement of entrenched incumbents.

A number of Republicans from swing seats did retire last cycle, like Reps. Jim Gerlach (R, PA-6), Tom Latham (R, IA-3), Gary Miller (R, CA-31), Jon Runyan (R, NJ-3), Frank Wolf (R, VA-10), and others. But Republicans held all of their open seats except for Miller’s, an outlier that for complicated reasons he had little hope to hold anyway. These retirements ended up being well-timed for a midterm dominated by Republicans.

The GOP could have a harder time defending the seats of some members who have already announced their retirements this cycle, like Reps. Dan Benishek (R, MI-1), Mike Fitzpatrick (R, PA-8), Chris Gibson (R, NY-19), and John Kline (R, MN-2). History guarantees that more retirements are coming. The key question for Republicans: How many more, and from which districts? Historically, it’s easier to capture an open seat than to beat an incumbent.

It’s not hard to imagine some Republicans heading home for the holidays after a horrific, bruising December shutdown fight and months of leadership battles, wondering, “Why exactly do I want to go through two more years of this?”

The final prong, as mentioned, is the impact of the presidential race. We won’t dwell on that here, but the fate of many House Republicans could be pegged to their presidential nominee. A mainstream candidate will help them keep their seats. An extreme or damaged one could act as an anvil. (The same is true for the Democrats, it’s worth noting.)

The upcoming election could follow many different paths, almost all of them leading to continued Republican control of the House. But, as outlined above, there is a path for the Democrats, one that the House GOP leadership battle will help widen or narrow in the weeks and months to come.

Democrats probably cannot win the House next year, but Republicans can lose it with a combination of boneheaded missteps at the House and presidential level. That Republican doomsday scenario should be on the minds of GOP members as they take their first step today toward picking a new leadership team.

A number of noteworthy ratings changes and developments in individual races are discussed below.
Click to expand...
 
J

Jack Remington

Banned
PantherLotus said:
4. Preeeeeeetty sure next December conservative thinktanks will be openly wondering/speculating if McCarthy's Benghazi flub sealed Hillary's election. Which is obviously stupid since they're running either Trump or Rubio.
Click to expand...

I hope they go this route. They already blame Romney's loss on Candy Crowley and Chris Christie working with Obama during Sandy.

So to win presidential elections:

Republican governors should tell the POTUS to fuck off during times of national disaster.

Moderators should never correct candidates on factually-incorrect talking points even after the talking point has been challenged by the other person in the debate.

The House needs to run a taxpayer-funded opposition research/swiftboating committee against the other party's nominee.

Forget trying to appeal to the demographic groups that make up the majority in this country.
 
F

Fenderputty

Banned
Bowdz said:
The only way I could see Democrats voting for a Republican speaker and save the GOP's ass is if they got some serious concessions, but that would still be pointless unless McConnell agreed to the same concessions from the Senate (which I cannot see happening). I'd be loving every minute of this if I weren't terrified that the GOP will allow us to default on our debt and shutter the government. I'm still blown away by this.
Click to expand...

It would be crazy to do that during an election year.
 
I

ivysaur12

Banned
Also, the ~SPEAKER CHAOS~ could help galvanize poor recruitment efforts thus far for congressional Ds:

http://www.rollcall.com/news/gop_ho...16_few_pickup_opportunities_for-243910-1.html

Mired in a 30-seat minority, it’s hard to find any Democrats who will say publicly or privately that their party has a shot at winning the House majority.

Even so, many Democrats insist the party is at its low-water mark in the House and predict they’ll pick up seats on Election Day 2016. But how many they can gain will depend on whether they can recruit people who can win in competitive districts.

That’s proved to be more challenging than predicted when the cycle began.

Democratic operatives thought the prospect of Hillary Rodham Clinton topping the ticket, coupled with a map rife with pickup opportunities in districts where presidential turnout often benefits their party, would be a strong draw for candidates.

Yet Democrats are without quality recruits in nearly a dozen competitive districts across the country. As the third quarter of the year comes to an end, the clock is running out to put strong recruits in place.

Democrats chalk up the recruitment struggles to the prospect of being in the House minority until at least 2022 — the first cycle after the 2020 redistricting process. Party strategists add that a number of other potential recruits fear they’d be giving up their current jobs to run for a seat that may be unwinnable in 2018 — a midterm cycle that could be treacherous for Democrats if the party holds on to the White House next year.

“The promise of being locked into the minority until the next round of redistricting gets wrapped up is just not really appetizing,” says one national Democratic strategist who insisted on anonymity. “If you’re a bright young Democratic star, why do that? Even if you win you’re in a tough seat, and you get stuck running for re-election in an off cycle, which is really, really, really bad.”

Places where Democrats are finding it challenging to find top recruits include New York’s Syracuse-based 24th District. Freshman GOP Rep. John Katko won here in the 2014 GOP wave, despite President Barack Obama having carried it by a 16-point margin two years earlier. In a presidential year, the district would have a strong Democratic lean. But Democrats have yet to find a nominee to take on Katko.

Recruitment is also proving problematic in Illinois. GOP Reps. Rodney Davis and Mike Bost both hold seats in districts with an even partisan split, making them prime pick-up opportunities. But Democrats still don’t have top-tier recruits in place there.

“In places like New York or Illinois, where Democrats have majorities in the legislature, why would you give that up ... to come to D.C. to be in the minority for what could be several cycles?” says Rob Simms, executive director of the National Republican Congressional Committee.
Click to expand...
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
GOP establishment to House GOP:
giphy.gif
 
M

Makai

Member
Roland_Gunner said:
Aside from McCarthy the only other person who could unite the two Republican branches is Paul Ryan and he doesn't want the job. So either:

1. Ryan sees the House is falling apart and steps up.
2. The 'mainstream' Reps cave and select some one like Chaffetz (not happening).
3. Some Dems cross over and get a new Speaker in. Charlie Dent, one of Boehner's people is already floating this idea.
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They could get someone outside of Congress if they're really desperate.
 
T

teiresias

Member
I thought they'd be able to pull something together, but it's getting to the point that unless the GOP establishment is ready to go full-on xenophobic, tea-party crazy, they're going to have to have a coalition Speaker with Democrats.

McCarthy dropping out has legit shook me, I haven't been this nervous for our country since the weeks leading up to the potential of default two years ago.
 
J

Jack Remington

Banned
If we could just get some more court-ordered redistricting in states like Ohio where the districts are blatantly engineered to elect Republicans beyond any reasonable doubt, the majority could be easily within reach before 2020.
 
B

Brawndo Addict

Banned
PantherLotus said:
What an incredible moment in politics.

1. Yes I do think there's a scandal getting buried here. No conspiracies.
Click to expand...

From the WP article about it, mentions an interesting letter I didn't know existed.

There was also a wealth of buzzing amidst the chaos about a letter sent by Rep. Walter Jones (R-N.C.) on Tuesday to Republican Conference Chair Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-Wash.).

In the letter, Jones called for any leadership candidate who has committed “misdeeds” since joining Congress to drop out of the running. He did not specify what he was referring to.

“I’ve had the pleasure of serving the third district of North Carolina for the past 20 years in Congress,” Jones wrote.

“Some of the most difficult times have been when our Republican leaders or potential Republican leaders must step down because of skeletons in their closets. We’ve seen it with former Speaker Newt Gingrich and Rep. Bob Livingston, who ran for Speaker in 1998 … As members of the House of Representatives, we need to be able to represent the will of the people unhindered by potentially embarrassing scandals.”
Click to expand...
 
B

Bowdz

Member
Fenderputty said:
It would be crazy to do that during an election year.
Click to expand...

Well, we're in luck because the House is legitimately crazy. For a lot of their members, they honestly think that the President not capitulating to 100% of their demands is responsible for any government shutdown or default. They are not logical people. They are batshit insane.

teiresias said:
I thought they'd be able to pull something together, but it's getting to the point that unless the GOP establishment is ready to go full-on xenophobic, tea-party crazy, they're going to have to have a coalition Speaker with Democrats.

McCarthy dropping out has legit shook me, I haven't been this nervous for our country since the weeks leading up to the potential of default two years ago.
Click to expand...

Agreed. I'm torn between glee (Dems chances next year just went up considerably) and terror (chances of a shutdown/default went up considerably as well). I'm Diablosing in the back of my mind concerning the debt ceiling.
 
P

PantherLotus

Professional Schmuck
Wilsongt said:
So what does this mean for the speakership for us tl;dr folks?
Click to expand...

1. Boehner's "forced" to stay on for now.

2. GOP is a legitimately fractured party.

3. Conservatives seriously hate their elected reps and both this and the presidential polls (Trump, Carson, Fiorina) reflect this.

4. Nothing was getting done anyway, so in the short term it means nothing.

5. Longer-term, there is a non-zero chance establishment GOP types 'move left' to join Dems to form a consensus government, isolating the tea party and freedom caucus types. Seriously.
 
T

teiresias

Member
PantherLotus said:
1. Boehner's "forced" to stay on for now.

2. GOP is a legitimately fractured party.

3. Conservatives seriously hate their elected reps and both this and the presidential polls (Trump, Carson, Fiorina) reflect this.

4. Nothing was getting done anyway, so in the short term it means nothing.

5. Longer-term, there is a non-zero chance establishment GOP types 'move left' to join Dems to form a consensus government, isolating the tea party and freedom caucus types. Seriously.
Click to expand...

I am soooooo wanting to see #5 for a number of reasons. One, just to see the dynamics change in that situation both internal to the Congress and with its relationship with a potential continuing Democratic Executive. Two, just to see the far right go absolutely bat-shit crazy over it happening.

Brawndo Addict said:
I would never have thought that the term 'coalition government' would be relevant in the context of American politics.
Click to expand...

I forget where I read it, but there was an article about how the current climate is actually anti-democratic because the majority of elected officials in Congress are not having the influence because of such a relatively small far-right group in the GOP. This includes both Democrats and non-crazy GOP members, so in order for the actual majority of the members of Congress to have influence at this point a coalition government is almost required. Of course, the GOP would have to publicly put the Hastert Rule to bed forever.
 
Tarkus

Tarkus

Member
Makai said:
"We need a fresh face."

Rubio's going to be Speaker, isn't he?
Click to expand...
Not a chance. He will *grabs a bottled water and takes a sip* be Trump's VP. You heard it here first.
PantherLotus said:
1. Boehner's "forced" to stay on for now.

2. GOP is a legitimately fractured party.

3. Conservatives seriously hate their elected reps and both this and the presidential polls (Trump, Carson, Fiorina) reflect this.

4. Nothing was getting done anyway, so in the short term it means nothing.

5. Longer-term, there is a non-zero chance establishment GOP types 'move left' to join Dems to form a consensus government, isolating the tea party and freedom caucus types. Seriously.
Click to expand...
PantherLists
 
A

Averon

Member
For a party that constantly trying to prove how tough and manly they are, they are quite sensitive when they don't get their way.
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
I'm giddy.

I know that there's a scary component to it, but the country is resilient.

And if there is a coalition government, voters on the right will really, truly follow through on their threats to stay home next year. This is a no-win scenario for the GOP. As soon as McCarthy uttered one words, he trapped them. Clinton recognized this right away.
 
P

PantherLotus

Professional Schmuck
HylianTom said:
I'm giddy.

I know that there's a scary component to it, but the country is resilient.

And if there is a coalition government, voters on the right will really, truly follow through on their threats to stay home next year. This is a no-win scenario for the GOP. As soon as McCarthy uttered one words, he trapped them. Clinton recognized this right away.
Click to expand...

I don't think it's as dire as all that for conservatives. They just need their wild ones to fall in line. The threat of a coalition could to that.

Hillary drawing votes from the right because nutjobs stay home or because Trump is on the national ticket, though? That would be glorious.
 
C

Coriolanus

Banned
Brawndo Addict said:
Honestly that scares me more than it amuses me. Presumably those are the reasonable Republicans that Democrats would be happy to work with. If they're losing it based on their internal knowledge of the party, that doesn't bode well.
Click to expand...

It probably does. Congress has been useless for a while, no? Let them crash and burn, all the while pushing a narrative that they've caused this, the Republicans are in disarray and the like. Make the radicals go more extreme than tak fuji. Taint the other candidates by extension.

A weak party should increase the chances of democrats picking up more seats.

This is a time where the visceral response Bams gets could very well benefit democrats.
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
PantherLotus said:
I don't think it's as dire as all that for conservatives. They just need their wild ones to fall in line. The threat of a coalition could to that.

Hillary drawing votes from the right because nutjobs stay home or because Trump is on the national ticket, though? That would be glorious.
Click to expand...

Their wild ones - that's the big question mark. You'd think that their instinct to not fuck-over the party would kick-in, right?

Meanwhile, the folks at FreeRepublic seem to be just as jovial about this as I am.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3346255/posts
 
B

Brawndo Addict

Banned
Obama's lasting legacy could be the death of the republican party as we know it. I always thought he would have just started the fall, I didn't think that it would come full circle before he even left office.

Coriolanus said:
It probably does. Congress has been useless for a while, no? Let them crash and burn, all the while pushing a narrative that they've caused this, the Republicans are in disarray and the like. Make the radicals go more extreme than tak fuji. Taint the other candidates by extension.

A weak party should increase the chances of democrats picking up more seats.

This is a time where the visceral response Bams gets could very well benefit democrats.
Click to expand...

It didn't happen in 2013/14 in terms of negative political consequences. But the bigger fear is that the radicals do stand their ground, we default on the debt ceiling and the government shuts down, the financial system panics, and the economic fallout far exceeds whatever political gains might become real in another year. We want people to see that they're willing to blow it up, we don't want them to actually blow it up.
 
C

Crisco

Banned
11th dimensional chess, was there ever any doubt? Checkmate motherfuckers!

Seriously, between this and Putin entangling himself in Syria, Obama is literally just sitting back and watching all his enemies eat each other.
 
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