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PoliGAF 2015 |OT2| Pls print

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538 jumped all over the fact that Trump started trending downwards. I wonder if they'll mention it if/when he starts trending upwards again.
To be fair, I honestly don't believe Trump can hold double digit leads heading into Iowa and beyond. His lead will narrow as candidates furiously jostle for airwaves, special appearances, townhalls, etc. If we're only focused on trajectory then yeah, Trump is bound to go down, including his gargantuan lead over everyone else. What matters is the polling aggregate showing a Trump ahead regardless of the size of his lead, and that has been the case so far.
 

User 406

Banned
He is this election's newt gingrich.

ey68f7R.jpg
 

VanMardigan

has calmed down a bit.
Trump is gonna flame out so hard. Carson too. Can't believe you guys can't see it. Big picture. Those guys aren't going far once voters actually have to cast a vote and stop whining about establishment Republicans. Cause they always vote for them. Bush or Rubio, Kasich if something bad happens to the other two. That's it, that's pretty much all Democrats have to plan for.
 

Makai

Member
Trump is gonna flame out so hard. Carson too. Can't believe you guys can't see it. Big picture. Those guys aren't going far once voters actually have to cast a vote and stop whining about establishment Republicans. Cause they always vote for them. Bush or Rubio, Kasich if something bad happens to the other two. That's it, that's pretty much all Democrats have to plan for.
What does a Trump flame-out look like, exactly? Trump and Carson have both far surpassed "oops" with seemingly no consequences.
 

Tarkus

Member
I have so many "I told you so" moments saved for your inevitable meltdowns once Trump gets the nom. However, it will pale in comparison to when he beats Hillary in the GE. Oh my it will be glorious.
 
Trump is gonna flame out so hard. Carson too. Can't believe you guys can't see it. Big picture. Those guys aren't going far once voters actually have to cast a vote and stop whining about establishment Republicans. Cause they always vote for them. Bush or Rubio, Kasich if something bad happens to the other two. That's it, that's pretty much all Democrats have to plan for.

The people who think Paul Ryan is a moderate are going to come back into the fold in three months? It may happen but I think we need to accept that 20% - 30% of the Republican base is completely separated from reality and can do anything.
 

User 406

Banned
Please please please let Trump get the biggest soul snatch of all time on Kasich. Third in the polls is way too high for comfort.
 

ivysaur12

Banned
I have so many "I told you so" moments saved for your inevitable meltdowns once Trump gets the nom. However, it will pale in comparison to when he beats Hillary in the GE. Oh my it will be glorious.

Just for the record, you believe a majority of eligible Americans would vote for Trump over
Hillary?
 
Notwithstanding that I doubt he would actually win a US general election, (I have to assume common sense would prevail) I'm struggling to see how or why any rational person would actually want President Furby leading the world's largest economy and most powerful military.

He's an amusement, sure.
But that's about it.
 

RDreamer

Member
Trump is gonna flame out so hard. Carson too. Can't believe you guys can't see it. Big picture. Those guys aren't going far once voters actually have to cast a vote and stop whining about establishment Republicans. Cause they always vote for them. Bush or Rubio, Kasich if something bad happens to the other two. That's it, that's pretty much all Democrats have to plan for.

I dunno man. If it was just Trump at the top I think you'd have a point. With voters putting people like Trump, Carson, and Fiorina all at the top, that's just too many to swing in a short amount of time.
 

Makai

Member
Notwithstanding that I doubt he would actually win a US general election, I'm struggling to see how or why any rational person would actually want President Furby leading the world's largest economy and most powerful military.

He's an amusement, sure.
But that's about it.
He's going to China to make a great deal, and then he'll make America great again.
 
From the garlean emperor's own lips comes the mutinous truth
http://www.teaparty.org/ted-cruz-donald-trump-will-nominee-lions-share-supporters-will-vote-cruz-124060/
Ted Cruz said Thursday that he did not think Donald Trump would be the Republican nominee, his harshest criticism yet of a candidate he has assiduously avoided even brushing with judgment. Asked by WABC Radio’s Rita Cosby whether he believed that “eventually, you could beat him, based on your principles,” Cruz said he could. “I think that’s right. I think that, in time, I don’t believe Donald is going to be the nominee and I think, in time, the lion’s share of his supporters end up with us,” Cruz said in an interview taped Thursday that will air in full on Sunday.
Trump, for his part, has said he would be open to hitting the Texas freshman should he climb too closely to Trump in the polls.
 

Xisiqomelir

Member
Notwithstanding that I doubt he would actually win a US general election, (I have to assume common sense would prevail) I'm struggling to see how or why any rational person would actually want President Furby leading the world's largest economy and most powerful military.

He's an amusement, sure.
But that's about it.

I watched America do Dubya 1 and Dubya 2. Dubya 2 was the final straw, because even then the WMDs were clearly absent from Iraq.
 

noshten

Member
Clinton said:
Now the real answer to this is for gun-owners to form a different organization that supports the Second Amendment, supports their rights to own guns, use guns, go hunting, go target shooting, but stands against the absolutism of the NRA. You know, the NRA’s position reminds me of negotiating with the Iranians or the communists. There’s no possible discussion. And it’s for political purposes.

Hawkary Clinton strikes again.
I'm sure people will be defending her while trying to consolidate their progressive ideals with another candidate whose foreign policy barely differs from the circus on the right.
 
Did anyone made a thread about Hillary wanting to end Private Prisons after speaking the BLM activists? Do you guys think she's being truthful? I want to believe her, but I'm not happy that she received money from Private Prisons for her campaign, so I'm not sure if she would go against them.
 

dramatis

Member
Shutting down private prisons won't actually do much to solve the problem. Out of the total number of prisoners, state and federal combined, private prisons only have about 8%. Lots of people like to talk about the 'prison industrial complex' but the reality is that the prison business is a symptom of the bigger problem. It's an industry that developed in response to the increasing number of total prisoners, which became too much for states to deal with.

Right now, if the total number of prisoners doesn't decrease but you shut down private prisons anyway, you'll just start overcrowding federal and state prisons. More important than Hillary being truthful or not, I think that if Hillary wants to shut down private prisons, she should have a plan for how to handle overpopulation.
 

Tarkus

Member
Just for the record, you believe a majority of eligible Americans would vote for Trump over
Hillary?
I know it's hard for you to fathom, but absolutely. America wants an outsider. The general Joe Blow public is not particularly fond of politicians right now. Look how well he's doing despite all the crazy shit he's saying.

Actually, I'm not even sure Hillary beats Bernie at this point. If he gets the nom it's all over. Sanders cannot beat a Republican. The term "socialist" will never accepted in this country. Period. He destroyed his national chances when he a proclaimed that he's a socialist.
 
Even as Ben Carson starts to make insane, arguably anti-Semitic statements while claiming he knows more about the Holocaust than the ADL, the far-right is still carrying water for him:

But here’s the thing: Whether Carson is right or wrong in his central claim is entirely irrelevant to the more important question here, which is not “can armed people always overthrow a tyrannical government” but “does the government get to deny them the chance to try?” The right to keep and bear arms is an individual right, not a collective privilege, and individual rights do not need to be justified on practical grounds. Just as we would not deny free speech to a man simply because he seemed unlikely to win a given argument, we must not abandon our auxiliary self-defense rights on the basis that the odds might be stacked against the little guy. I’m a staunch defender of the right to keep and bear arms because I have an untouchable Lockean right to protect myself, not because I can prove definitively that I will never be outgunned. Would I necessarily win in a fight against a home intruder? No, I would not. Would I necessarily survive if the government or the police wanted me dead? No, I would not. But I will assert my unalienable right to try against any man at any time in any place, and those who hope to strip me of that chance can man up, head to my front door, and come and damn well take it.

I don't know if there's anything Carson can say that will cause him to lose support in conservative media... That could open up interesting possibilities if the Dems were good at ratfucking, but I don't know.
 
T

thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
Jeb Bush: "We just started to advertise — actually, the Right to Rise PAC started to advertise, not our campaign.”

Yep, SuperPACs and candidates are totally independent of each other.
 
I know it's hard for you to fathom, but absolutely. America wants an outsider. The general Joe Blow public is not particularly fond of politicians right now. Look how well he's doing despite all the crazy shit he's saying.

Actually, I'm not even sure Hillary beats Bernie at this point. If he gets the nom it's all over. Sanders cannot beat a Republican. The term "socialist" will never accepted in this country. Period. He destroyed his national chances when he a proclaimed that he's a socialist.

Sanders wouldnt lose if his match is Trump, he would crush him. Sanders is the best antidote the Democrats have for Trump´s populism. And the only people who care about the "socialist" term is the people who already believe Obama is Lenin´s resurrection. It is inconsequential.
 
I know it's hard for you to fathom, but absolutely. America wants an outsider. The general Joe Blow public is not particularly fond of politicians right now. Look how well he's doing despite all the crazy shit he's saying.

Actually, I'm not even sure Hillary beats Bernie at this point. If he gets the nom it's all over. Sanders cannot beat a Republican. The term "socialist" will never accepted in this country. Period. He destroyed his national chances when he a proclaimed that he's a socialist.

Most Republicans; not America. I wouldn't pay attention to how popular a candidate is unless it is a really popular person. Once the general election starts their popular will go down.
 

Hopfrog

Member
I know it's hard for you to fathom, but absolutely. America wants an outsider. The general Joe Blow public is not particularly fond of politicians right now. Look how well he's doing despite all the crazy shit he's saying.

Actually, I'm not even sure Hillary beats Bernie at this point. If he gets the nom it's all over. Sanders cannot beat a Republican. The term "socialist" will never accepted in this country. Period. He destroyed his national chances when he a proclaimed that he's a socialist.

Maybe Republicans are interested in one, but I am not so sure Americans in general are. There is always this talk about outsiders and anti-establishment figures, but how often does that turn into electoral success in presidential elections?

How often do Americans really elect candidates without political experience as president? You have to go back to Eisenhower to find a candidate who had not held an elected position before, but he was an anomaly due to being a general and war hero - the equivalent of moving directly to Go and collecting $200 of American politics.

Then there is Hoover. But Hoover was hardly an outsider - he worked closely with the federal government during the First World War and then served as Secretary of Commerce under Harding and Coolidge. Hardly an outsider.

When you tally it all up it is actually exceedingly rare for someone to win the presidency without prior political experience.
 

120v

Member
I know it's hard for you to fathom, but absolutely. America wants an outsider. The general Joe Blow public is not particularly fond of politicians right now. Look how well he's doing despite all the crazy shit he's saying.

Actually, I'm not even sure Hillary beats Bernie at this point. If he gets the nom it's all over. Sanders cannot beat a Republican. The term "socialist" will never accepted in this country. Period. He destroyed his national chances when he a proclaimed that he's a socialist.

he'd lose as bad as goldwater or mondale in a general. (well, maybe not as bad... deep red states are pretty steeped in cray cray and that's not going to change anytime soon)

"we need an outsider!" is just a media bullet point. see how voters feel about "outsiders" when all that PAC money plasters the airwaves
 

FiggyCal

Banned
We don't have to go into the question of whether Ben Carson is right about his comments about guns under Nazi Germany and whether that would have prevented the Holocaust to see that his core audience would react positively to it. I thought maybe his comments on the school shooting and running headfirst into the shooter would have gotten blowback. But at this point, it's hard to say if Ben can say anything that will disqualify him.
 
Hispanic Trump Fan Suggests Campaign Sought Her Out, Quickly Backpedals

She said that she wrote several times on her Facebook page that she was a Hispanic supporter of Trump and hoped to give the real estate mogul a hug.

"So did someone from the Trump campaign, Myriam, did they see what you posted on Facebook?" Baldwin asked. "Did someone from the campaign reach out to you?"

"I guess from the campaign, I guess," Witcher replied. "I touch my feelings. I go by my heart and I very simply like Mr. Trump. I just said what I feel."

"I'm just trying to ask did his campaign talk to you ahead of time?" Baldwin asked again.

"Nobody," Witcher answered. "It's not something—I just only talk to God and my computer and my heart. That's it."
 
Sanders wouldnt lose if his match is Trump, he would crush him. Sanders is the best antidote the Democrats have for Trump´s populism. And the only people who care about the "socialist" term is the people who already believe Obama is Lenin´s resurrection. It is inconsequential.

Sanders would lose. That's how little faith I have in his abilities and his appeal to the overall American electorate. Trump, despite all his disgusting comments, probably represents the average American more than Sanders.
 

Teggy

Member
Reading that just makes me so fucking angry. This guy needs to shut up and and Ben Carson needs to shut up and end his obsession with Hitler. Comparing needing to get gun licenses to the holocaust is offensive on so many levels, not to mention incredibly misinformed. I need to just go play some video games because this shit is just beyond the pale.
 
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