The GOP is Throwing Away Millions of Dollars
Snuffing out Donald Trumps candidacy may lower the rest of the Republican fields chances of beating Hillary Clinton. To bring Trump down a peg, the field is likely to double down on strategieslike heavy spending on negative TV adsthat may win the primary but simply wont work as well in November. Democrats, meanwhile, are busy building a vast organization to replicate President Obamas data-and-field driven juggernaut and take it even further.
In 2012, both sides in the general election invested enough on television, but only one side invested enough in registering and turning out the vote. The Obama campaign registered 3 million voters (a good chunk of its national popular vote margin), and had 3,000 full-time organizers on payroll whose mission was to organize themselves out of a job. This meant that staffers were explicitly told not to call voters and knock on doors, and instead focus exclusively on recruiting a massive volunteer army who could do the job instead. This process of capacity building, as it was referred to internally (and documented extensively in Elizabeth McKenna and Hahrie Hans academic book, Groundbreakers), allowed the Obama campaign to scale its operations an order of magnitude beyond the Romney campaign. On Election Day, the president over-performed the final polling averages by 3 points, a possible indicator that his turnout operation had done the trick.
This legacy influences the partys 2016 hopefuls today. According to Democracy in Action, a website that uses Federal Election Committee data and press reports to track campaign structure and organization, Clinton has a staff of at least 90 in Iowa, with an additional 100 unpaid organizing fellows, and at least 17 field offices. Bernie Sanders Iowa staff has grown to more than 50, with 14 offices. In Democratic circles, an operation of that size is not considered a luxury available only to front-runners like Clinton, but a prerequisite for being taken seriously. Though gaps in reporting are likely, Democracy in Action reports that no Republican candidate has more than 10 full-time staff in any early voting state (not counting consultants and volunteer leaders).