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PoliGAF 2015 |OT2| Pls print

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Surprised at the level of negative response that all the candidates got. I figured being the first major exposure it would be mostly positive. Sanders has the stat distribution I would have expected for all of them.

Improved Opinion / Worsened Opinion

Chafee: 7 / 24
Clinton: 29 / 30
O'Malley: 16 / 14
Sanders: 30 / 19
Webb: 11 / 19
None: 32 / 33
Unsure: 5 / 11


I trust yougov, but that 33% for "none" is a red flag to me. Not saying the numbers will be any different, but lets see what goes on with landline/cellphone polls.


I didn't expect Clinton to do this well. I thought O'Malley would pick up some support and Sanders too since this was his big nationwide debut.

I am not really surprised at all with Clinton. She won the debate, and with that the headlines. Most people get their debate fix from news coverage, and outlets love a narrative (specially when she was coming from a long period of negative coverage). Bernie did great too but no one really cares about second best.
 

HylianTom

Banned
Didn't she trounce Obama among Hispanic voters in the 2008 primaries?

Yup! If I remember correctly, it wasn't even close.

I'm glad to see that this trend is holding-up. It bodes really well for a western electoral path, should she somehow need one.
she won't
 
The cash game:


Gabriel Debenedetti ‏@gdebenedetti

NEW: @BernieSanders has $27m cash on hand, and has raised $3.2 million since Tuesday's debate.

NEW: @HillaryClinton raised $29.45m in Q3, spending $25.8m — almost as much as Bernie *raised.* And $33m on hand.

Clinton spent $8.5m on salaries, $3.4m on TV ads, $2.6m in online ads, $2.5m on direct marketing, $1.2m in polling.

and lol

O'Malley's big celebrity donor in Q2 was Danny Devito (he defected to Bernie in Q3). New tonight? Garrison Keillor.
 

ivysaur12

Banned
I trust yougov, but that 33% for "none" is a red flag to me. Not saying the numbers will be any different, but lets see what goes on with landline/cellphone polls.




I am not really surprised at all with Clinton. She won the debate, and with that the headlines. Most people get their debate fix from news coverage, and outlets love a narrative (specially when she was coming from a long period of negative coverage). Bernie did great too but no one really cares about second best.

I kind of agree. The media has been underestimating her for months. CLINTON COMEBACK! is a good narrative.
 

benjipwns

Banned
2008-primaries-01.png


who makes a chart with this resolution
 
NYT has updated their money race interactive.
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...2016-campaign-money-race.html?ref=first-draft

Clinton has spent a total of $44.5M.
Sanders about $14.3M.

She's raised more though so has more cash on hand.
I wonder if the Bern's burn rate will rise now, if he wants to compete in more territories.
I'm assuming this is also why Bill is stepping up his presence on the fundraising circuit.

Carson has a ridiculous amount of spending at $20M.
 
What is Ben Carson spending his money on.

Doesn't he just post paranoid Facebook memes as his entire campaign.

He's basically spending most of his money on... tactics to raise more money?
http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2015/...re-than-two-thirds-of-his-third-quarter-haul/

Or rather, raise his profile. Further indicating that his campaign is basically one big book tour.

Trump is apparently spending most of his money, outside of travel, on paraphernalia; hats and t-shirts.
 
I think it makes sense for Hillary to have front-ended spending. Unlike the Republicans who know they're going to have to be able to go the distance in terms of the primary calendar due to the size of the field, Hillary's probably only worried about the beginning. The only thing that could really screw her up would be Sanders pulling off an upset in the early states, therefore she's dumping a lot of money into preventing that from happening. Once she gets past Iowa/NH she doesn't really have to worry and can heavily cut back spending until the general.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
I think it makes sense for Hillary to have front-ended spending. Unlike the Republicans who know they're going to have to be able to go the distance in terms of the primary calendar due to the size of the field, Hillary's probably only worried about the beginning. The only thing that could really screw her up would be Sanders pulling off an upset in the early states, therefore she's dumping a lot of money into preventing that from happening. Once she gets past Iowa/NH she doesn't really have to worry and can heavily cut back spending until the general.

She's also likely in the midst of rebuilding Obama's election machine and that takes real money. She knows, from experience, that once it's done all that's left is to go through the motions and not fuck up.

I'd bet money this is where most of her cash is going.
 

Wilsongt

Member
Time to make fun of a Democrat.

http://www.mediaite.com/online/jim-webb-cnn-democratic-debate-was-rigged-for-clinton-and-sanders/

“That debate was, I’m going to be very frank, rigged in terms of who was going to get the time on the floor by the way that Anderson Cooper was selecting people to supposedly respond to something someone else said,” Webb explained. “I even turned around to Bernie Sanders at one point and said, ‘Bernie! Say my name, will you? Just say my name!'”

Aside from Cooper, Sanders and Clinton, Webb never called out any of the people in charge of the debate by name. There were no O’Malley-esque, passive-aggressive insults slung at Democratic National Convention Chair Debbie Wasserman-Schultz, for example. Still, the ex-Virginia senator felt compelled to explain his apparent anger — despite being unable to kill anyone.

“It’s very difficult to win a debate when you don’t have the opportunity to speak with the same amount of time on issues as the others did.”

Maybe if you had something of substance to say other than you killed a man, perhaps you could have talked more.
 
Jeb! cuts salaries:

Jeb Bush’s campaign slashed hundreds of thousands of dollars in salaries over the last three months as the struggling candidate's fundraising machine slowed to a more middling pace, new campaign-finance reports indicate.

No longer able to raise unlimited sums with his super PAC, Bush hauled in $13.4 million in the third quarter of the year for his campaign. That’s more than all of his GOP rivals except Ben Carson. But Bush also spent more than many of them, leaving him with about as much money in the bank as Marco Rubio. Ted Cruz has more.


Bush’s campaign once saw its size and staff as its strength. But the newly released campaign-finance reports indicate it could be a liability if fundraising slacks further.
At least 64 Bush staffers have had their salaries cut or their positions changed to reduce their income, compared with the second quarter of the year when Bush announced his candidacy. The resulting savings, averaged out on a weekly basis, could reach $900,000 per quarter, according to a POLITICO analysis of the campaign’s payroll. The cuts have ranged from the small for some staffers ($12 a week) to large reductions for four of the top campaign chiefs, each of whom took a $75,000 pay cut.

The Bush campaign payroll is still huge: nearly $1.7 million this quarter. It spent as much as $2 million more on various consulting-related services, from fundraising to legal compliance.


Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2015/10/fec-bush-214869#ixzz3oiHICCr7

My favorite bit:

“We’ve reached one million people and we’re in fifth place nationally?” said one Bush supporter who didn’t want to be identified. “I trust the campaign. I just don’t know about the voters. It’s like the more Jeb is out there, the less well he does.”
 
No increase in Social Security benefits next year.

Sounds like a great opportunity to Clinton to talk about dropping the SS payroll tax cap and expanding benefits!
 

dramatis

Member
Hillary's jobs page showed she was hiring engineers and data analysts over the quarter, compared to Bernie's which was staffing up ground game in NH. Not surprised by the money burn.

More TPP leaks, but first I should probably get out of bed.
 

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
I have never had a child, so I have never had a child ask me to do something on his deathbed. But if it's genuinely the case that Joe Biden's son asked him to run on his deathbed--for whatever reason, be it be thought his father could do a good job, that he thought his father could raise important issues, or just that he thought it would make his father happy-- I would kind of have to evaluate that request against reality. Again, I've never had a son, but I don't understand why Biden would just do something that makes absolutely no sense because his son told him to do it. Could it be that Biden wanted to run and was looking for someone to push him over the edge into doing it?

Unless Hillary explodes, and I think that's unlikely and becomes increasingly more unlikely every month, Joe is going to embarrass himself and face the Clinton machine as it tears him down in back rooms. Joe is not and has never been a good candidate. I think he won't run and I could not understand him choosing to. He can't win.
 

FiggyCal

Banned
I'm gonna say it, it's racist to keep calling him Piyush when he's pretty clearly not interested in being called that.

Absolutely. It's like when conservatives called Jon Stewart, Leibowitz -- to remind everyone he's Jewish. Jindal gets a ton of crap thrown at him because of his race.
 
The simple fact of the matter is if the decision to run for president is this incredibly hard for you, you shouldn't run.

I mean, unless you're a joke candidate with no actual intention or expectation to be president, this is not something you should pursue if you have such nagging doubt.
 

NeoXChaos

Member
His aides must be a bunch of yes men to want him to go through this. Biden is either ignoring the realities or wants to go out win or lose no matter the odds.
 
In other news, Hillary's Muslim lesbian soulmate is testifying before the House BENGHAZIBENGHAZIBENGHAZI Committee today.

Closed doors, unfortunately.
 

Cheebo

Banned
Obama is the one who will have more times on his hands. About to be retired in his mid 50s, younger than most candidates running for President right now.
 

AndyD

aka andydumi
Martin Shkreli. He's basically complaining that his donation isn't giving him insider access.

He's like that banker who complained his donation didn't win him favorable legislation. The corruption expectation is so blatant.

Shkreli can go on TV or put out a page long response in the NYT if he has such great arguments in favor of the price gouging. I don't think he gets the distinction between high prices for drugs you researched and developed (so you recover your investment) vs. gouging prices on a drug you had nothing to do with, other than buying the rights to.
 
The simple fact of the matter is if the decision to run for president is this incredibly hard for you, you shouldn't run.

I mean, unless you're a joke candidate with no actual intention or expectation to be president, this is not something you should pursue if you have such nagging doubt.

The simple fact is there's not one good reason for Biden to run, other than the media needing a horse race for ratings.

No one in their right mind thinks he's actually going to run- he has none of the infrastructure or fundraising started, missed the first debate, has no real distinct positions from hillary and is old as all hell.

It's a non story, Biden is just letting the media twist in the wind because he can. If Hilary's support vanishing was anything but media fan fiction there might be a reason to jump in, but she came out of the first debate looking strong and convincing fence sitters.

This one is over. Hillary is the nominee, everything from now until the convention is just window dressing
 
NBC online poll.

Trump 28%
Carson 23%
Rubio 9%
Fiorina 6%
Cruz 6%
Bush 5%
Huckabee 3%
Kasich 3%
Christie 2%
Paul 2%

From September 27th:

Jeb Bush is entering a critical phase of his Republican presidential campaign, with top donors warning that the former Florida governor needs to demonstrate growth in the polls over the next month or face serious defections among supporters.

So... Jeb has 11 days to start polling like a presidential candidate or he's going to lose his money.
 
T

thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
In LawGaf news, Authors Guild v Google got another strong ruling in favor of Google to allow google to continue scanning in books to be searchable with google books.

A little bit of good news for those against expanding copyright restrictions in a month of terrible copyright news thanks to TPP.
 

teiresias

Member
No increase in Social Security benefits next year.

Sounds like a great opportunity to Clinton to talk about dropping the SS payroll tax cap and expanding benefits!

Except that it has nothing to do with funding levels and is just there being no cost-of-living increase due to the numbers being run on the CPI. I bet this affects me as a federal employee as well, I'd imagine whether we get a cost of living increase is also tied to the same metric.

Surprised there isn't an OT topic on the first "real" post-debate poll yet.
 

Cheebo

Banned
NBC online poll.



From September 27th:



So... Jeb has 11 days to start polling like a presidential candidate or he's going to lose his money.
Same new NBC poll says Hillary won the debate and gained the most in her overall support post-Debate (ditto with HuffPosts numbers yesterday). Sanders needed to win that debate, it's looking like that backfired completely on him.
 
I'm gonna predict that Christie will drop out soon. He's not cutting it for the big boy table, and instead will be forced to duel with infants like Jindal in the kiddie table. I doubt his ego would let him sink to that depth.
 

teiresias

Member
Same new NBC poll says Hillary won the debate and gained the most in her overall support post-Debate (ditto with HuffPosts numbers yesterday). Sanders needed to win that debate, it's looking like that backfired completely on him.

But . . . but . . . bu . . . b . . . I was told all the google and twitter metrics, and online polls said Bernie came out of that debate steamrolling towards the nomination?!?!?!
 
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