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PoliGAF 2015 |OT2| Pls print

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B

Bowdz

Member
CharlieDigital said:
I've not been too impressed with Castro what little I've seen of him. In a serious policy debate, I think he may have a hard time against a more experienced politician. You can't pick the guy just to get the Hispanic vote and wager that against potential undecideds and moderates.
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I think I depends on who the GOP ticket ends up being. If it is Rubio or Bush at the top of the ticket, I could see Kaine being the best pick to shore up VA in the event of CO, NV, FL losses (yes, I know polling shows that Rubio and Bush still have poor support from Hispanics). If Trump ends up taking it, I could see Hilldawg picking Castro to run the margins on the Hispanic vote and crush Trump in that regard.
 
B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Bowdz said:
I think I depends on who the GOP ticket ends up being. If it is Rubio or Bush at the top of the ticket, I could see Kaine being the best pick to shore up VA in the event of CO, NV, FL losses (yes, I know polling shows that Rubio and Bush still have poor support from Hispanics). If Trump ends up taking it, I could see Hilldawg picking Castro to run the margins on the Hispanic vote and crush Trump in that regard.
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Besides, whoever Trump picks, I'm guessing his friend Carl, is going to be an idiot.
 
B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Makai said:
I think Trump's picking Cruz. Compatible with his base and "knows how Washington works."
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Cruz broke the rules and attacked Trump on holy ground, the gloves are going to come off.

Plus I think it would be hilarious if when Trump made his choice and said, "My running mate is going to be my good friend, a really classy and luxurious guy, a guy I trust with Asia and the Middle East, probably South America too because he's a great guy, you don't know how great a guy he is, he's really terrific, everyone loves him, my good friend Carl."
 
M

Makai

Member
B-Dubs said:
Cruz broke the rules and attacked Trump on holy ground, the gloves are going to come off.

Plus I think it would be hilarious if when Trump made his choice and said, "My running mate is going to be my good friend, a really classy and luxurious guy, a guy I trust with Asia and the Middle East, probably South America too because he's a great guy, you don't know how great a guy he is, he's really terrific, everyone loves him, my good friend Carl."
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I thought he was pitching him as treasury secretary.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Rep. John Mica (R-FL-7) might switch over to the open 6th district to let Dan Webster (FL-10) run in the 7th, since Webster's district went from 46% Obama to 61%. The good news for Democrats is under the new lines FL-7 becomes a slight Obama district (49.41-49.37) meaning it's more winnable than FL-6 in an open seat contest (which is 47-52 Obama). Webster also isn't a particularly solid politician either.

If all goes well Democrats could pick up four seats in Florida (6, 10, 13, 26), only losing one (2) thus coming out to a +3 net gain.
 
T

thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
dramatis said:
Trump also said he wanted Palin in his Cabinet
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And Palin wants to be secretary of energy, according to her.

There's a chance the establishment doesn't take out Trump.

There's a chance world events ruin the democrat's chances in the general.

And that means there's actually a chance that Trump would have Palin take over nuclear physicist Ernest Moniz's job.
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
How pathetic for @realdonaldtrump to criticize the president for 9/11. We were attacked & my brother kept us safe.
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Jeb!'s stance on 9/11 might as well be the new definition of cognitive dissonance.

thepotatoman said:
And Palin wants to be secretary of energy, according to her.

There's a chance the establishment doesn't take out Trump.

There's a chance world events ruin the democrat's chances in the general.

And that means there's actually a chance that Trump would have Palin take over nuclear physicist Ernest Moniz's job.
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You betcha.
 
B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
thepotatoman said:
And Palin wants to be secretary of energy, according to her.

There's a chance the establishment doesn't take out Trump.

There's a chance world events ruin the democrat's chances in the general.

And that means there's actually a chance that Trump would have Palin take over nuclear physicist Ernest Moniz's job.
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I don't want to live on this planet anymore.
 
O

Oblivion

Fetishing muscular manly men in skintight hosery
Dis motherluver...

@JebBush: How pathetic for @realdonaldtrump to criticize the president for 9/11. We were attacked & my brother kept us safe.
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The guy just does not give a shit.
 
N

NYCmetsfan

Banned
fab1.jpg


Bevin releases and internal with him losing. haha
 
I

ivysaur12

Banned
I was about to post that. One of the questions was: "Would you rather vote for a Republican who opposes Obama's policies or a Democrat who would be a rubber stamp for the president?"

AND 39% SAID THE RUBBER STAMP
 
B

Brawndo Addict

Banned
It's so weird how things have played out. Everyone assumed Trump's popularity would be short-lived and that the normal candidates could just wait him out. Yeah, he's capturing attention now, but once we get to the primaries it's a different story, so they could just raise money and wait half a year, or so they thought. Then it turns out they can't even raise enough money to stay in the game long enough for Trumpalooza to die down, let alone make it to the actual primaries. Trump/Carson may end up suffocating the other campaigns to death before a single primary vote is cast, it's insane.
 
D

dramatis

Member
ivysaur12 said:
I was about to post that. One of the questions was: "Would you rather vote for a Republican who opposes Obama's policies or a Democrat who would be a rubber stamp for the president?"

AND 39% SAID THE RUBBER STAMP
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Was that actually how the question was worded? lol
 
M

Makai

Member
Am I wrong in supporting the trade deal? I can appreciate dissent from protectionists, but that doesn't seem to be the source of most criticism. I'm getting the impression that people are intentionally trawling through random corners of the internet for internet end-game articles. Many object to the sausage-making process, some alluding to Illuminati and Bilderberg. "We're turning into V for Vendetta" is a juicy story that any mainstream news source will cover. "_________ voted to kill the internet" is a damning attack against any congressman. After all that, the George Orwell Act of 2015 would still have trouble getting around the US Constitution. Due process will be upheld in court.
 
B

Bowdz

Member
Brawndo Addict said:
It's so weird how things have played out. Everyone assumed Trump's popularity would be short-lived and that the normal candidates could just wait him out. Yeah, he's capturing attention now, but once we get to the primaries it's a different story, so they could just raise money and wait half a year, or so they thought. Then it turns out they can't even raise enough money to stay in the game long enough for Trumpalooza to die down, let alone make it to the actual primaries. Trump/Carson may end up suffocating the other campaigns to death before a single primary vote is cast, it's insane.
Click to expand...

It really is amazing to watch unfold. I still think the safe bet is Rubio, but man oh man would I love to see Trump take the nomination.

I think another aspect of the current nomination battle that is often overlooked is the loyalty pledge and the possible treasure trove it will be if Trump wins the nomination. Since all of the contenders have signed the loyalty pledge, they will either have to "support the eventual nominee of the Republican party" or risk showing public disloyalty yet again on the national stage. Based of the pledge alone, Democrats can tie any of the candidates in future elections to or point out how fractured the GOP is if Trump wins. It is a win-win situation for Dems.
 
B

Brawndo Addict

Banned
Makai said:
Am I wrong in supporting the trade deal? I can appreciate dissent from protectionists, but that doesn't seem to be the source of most criticism. I'm getting the impression that people are intentionally trawling through random corners of the internet for internet end-game articles. Many object to the sausage-making process, some alluding to Illuminati and Bilderberg. "We're turning into V for Vendetta" is a juicy story that any mainstream news source will cover. "_________ voted to kill the internet" is a damning attack against any congressman. After all that, the George Orwell Act of 2015 would still have trouble getting around the US Constitution. Due process will be upheld in court.
Click to expand...

Coriolanus said:
You've (sorta) given a reason not to oppose it. You haven't quite said why you support it, so one can't judge.
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Huge economic trade deals like this are above my paygrade in terms of forming an educated opinion worth a damn. Yeah I can speculate but I couldn't say I had any real certainty about anything. They inevitably end up being something of a mixed bag. Same thing happened with NAFTA, it wasn't evil incarnate like some made it out to be, but it also wasn't the holy grail of jobs and trade either. Would we be better off with or without NAFTA? Hard to say, maybe even impossible.

My general opinion is that the world is only going to get more globalized and interconnected, so it doesn't really make sense not to build up trade and agreed-upon procedures for commercial and government interaction. I'd rather take an imperfect step towards the future then no step at all so to speak.
 
R

Retromelon

Member
ivysaur12 said:
I was about to post that. One of the questions was: "Would you rather vote for a Republican who opposes Obama's policies or a Democrat who would be a rubber stamp for the president?"

AND 39% SAID THE RUBBER STAMP
Click to expand...
I guarantee 38.9% of them weren't familiar with the phrase and assumed it sounded like the democrat would be wholly opposed to Obama
 
B

Bam Bam Baklava

Member
ivysaur12 said:
You have a bunch of candidates who aren't receiving NEARLY as much bad press as Hillary Clinton is since she's the presumptive nominee. When it's 1 v 1, these things will change.
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I don't know anymore. Carson is getting what's supposed to be bad press but people don't think what he's saying is wrong. I keep telling people they're underestimating how conservative this country is.
 
M

Makai

Member
Coriolanus said:
You've (sorta) given a reason not to oppose it. You haven't quite said why you support it, so one can't judge.
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The protectionist argument is certainly legitimate - some people/industries/countries get screwed over, which is why concessions are made to reduce the adjustment costs. But in the end, free trade is a net benefit to everyone and brings us closer to an integrated world economy and government. I guess most Americans agree because most attacks involve scary provisions instead of fear of lost jobs. Then again, Trump got roaring applause when he said he'd impose a 25% tariff on Chinese goods.
 
C

Coriolanus

Banned
Makai said:
The protectionist argument is certainly legitimate - some people/industries/countries get screwed over, which is why concessions are made to reduce the adjustment costs. But in the end, free trade is a net benefit to everyone and brings us closer to an integrated world economy and government. I guess most Americans agree because most attacks involve scary provisions instead of fear of lost jobs. Then again, Trump got roaring applause when he said he'd impose a 25% tariff on Chinese goods.
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Right, but again, which parts of it do you think will help facilitate trade? Free trade is a catchphrase. I'm trying to understand which policies and mechanisms it promotes that you will think will positively impact your desired markets, and, to an extent, yourself.
 
M

Makai

Member
Coriolanus said:
Right, but again, which parts of it do you think will help facilitate trade?
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I'm nearly completely ignorant of the details but I have faith that the US negotiators didn't completely flub it. I know of one provision thanks to NPR - they're getting rid of the Chicken Tax which means cheap Toyotas, woo.
 
B

Bowdz

Member
Did anyone else just watch the Hilldawg interview with Jake Tapper?

I thought she killed it and came across (at least to me) as authentic as I've ever seen her. Beyond that, hearing her give a full explanation and defense of her email usage makes me wonder why her campaign didn't have her out plastering the airwaves with her right when the email story broke. She does a better job explaining it than any of her surrogates.
 
I

ivysaur12

Banned
Bam Bam Baklava said:
I don't know anymore. Carson is getting what's supposed to be bad press but people don't think what he's saying is wrong. I keep telling people they're underestimating how conservative this country is.
Click to expand...

He's doing well with a certain subsection of the population who would never vote for a Democrat no matter what, or who aren't paying attention to early election stuff. If these are the same numbers next summer, I'd be worried.
 
C

Coriolanus

Banned
Makai said:
I'm nearly completely ignorant of the details but I have faith that the US negotiators didn't completely flub it. I know of one provision thanks to NPR - they're getting rid of the Chicken Tax which means cheap Toyotas, woo.
Click to expand...

Then, aside from that particular bit, one would assume a person in your condition would be mostly neutral towards it.

I'm all for my country telling that thing to fuck right off because the things from page 33 onwards cause me worry, no matter how nice the things about trademarks may be. Plus we already got the madrid protocol for that (and my country cant even implement it without fucking up) so we'd just get rekt harderer.
 
E

East Lake

Member
Makai said:
I'm nearly completely ignorant of the details but I have faith that the US negotiators didn't completely flub it. I know of one provision thanks to NPR - they're getting rid of the Chicken Tax which means cheap Toyotas, woo.
Click to expand...
Most complaints I've seen that aren't of the Obama destroyed the internet type are ones that worry it's going to let corporations gain too much control over local governments.

Consider the question of Investor-State Dispute Settlement, one of the most heatedly contested chapters of both deals. Business associations are pushing to include an arrangement by which a foreign investor (such as a U.S. company operating abroad) can sue the host government if the company alleges that government actions are unjustly harming the firm's profitability. The mechanism creates an ad hoc three-member arbitration panel to decide the claim, outside of the legal system of the host country.

Defenders of the mechanism, including the administration, argue that it has been in place in investment treaties for decades without ill effects. Yet this argument misses the basic fact that multinational companies are increasingly and dangerously using the Investor-State Dispute Settlement mechanism to challenge the ability of governments to regulate businesses. What was once just a relatively little used procedure is now becoming a serious problem for governments that are attempting to implement health, education and other regulations that may have an effect on how businesses operate.

Philip Morris, for example, has recently used this process to resist tobacco-control measures in Australia and Uruguay, and Bilcon, a U.S. mining company, has successfully sued Canada over a regulatory action that had blocked one of its mining projects on environmental grounds. Some argue that the Canada precedent might tempt TransCanada to sue the U.S. government if it tries to block the Keystone XL pipeline.
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http://www.usnews.com/opinion/econo...reement-secrecy-will-benefit-big-corporations

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/jeffrey-sachs/why-fast-track-is-a-dange_b_7312034.html
 
M

Makai

Member
East Lake said:
Most complaints I've seen that aren't of the Obama destroyed the internet type are ones that worry it's going to let corporations gain too much control over local governments.
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Isn't lawsuit the mechanism which makes sure a government is enforcing the trade deal?
 
C

Coriolanus

Banned
Makai said:
Isn't lawsuit the mechanism which makes sure a government is enforcing the trade deal?
Click to expand...

Indeed, but that's the question posed by the scenario: what happens when the trade deal directly conflicts with local public interest? As exemplified (not specifically by the TPP) by Big Tobacco suing governments in order to block measures that would make their poison peddling harder.

To an extent, this is something that John Oliver talked about once. Obviously one must expand the scope.
 
M

Makai

Member
Coriolanus said:
Indeed, but that's the question posed by the scenario: what happens when the trade deal directly conflicts with local public interest? As exemplified (not specifically by the TPP) by Big Tobacco suing governments in order to block measures that would make their poison peddling harder.
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Hmm, I guess you can't just make a new law, but that's part of the deal with federalism. I don't think it's a cop out to say push for stronger international institutions for environmental regulation.
 
L

Lucky Forward

Member
@JebBush: How pathetic for @realdonaldtrump to criticize the president for 9/11. We were attacked & my brother kept us safe.
Click to expand...

So safe that his counterterrorism chief apologized for it.

“Your government failed you, those entrusted with protecting you failed you, and I failed you. We tried hard, but that doesn’t matter, because we failed,” he added.
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“Although I continued to say it [terrorism] was an urgent problem, I don’t think it was ever treated that way” by the Bush administration before Sept. 11.
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