Support NeoGAF

[Cheebo]

But . . . but . . . bu . . . b . . . I was told all the google and twitter metrics, and online polls said Bernie came out of that debate steamrolling towards the nomination?!?!?!

The idea that all people needed was to see Bernie and of course they would come to support him was a joke to begin with. Polling so far is backing that up, the more Hillary is out there and controlling her own message the better she does. The real story is the debate helped Hillarys numbers.

 

[Black Republican]

Clinton / Booker 2016

Thoughts?

I think he brings a younger dynamic and highly "marketable".

i want Kamala Harris as VP but i guess she thinks she needs more time

 

[Cheebo]

i want Kamala Harris as VP but i guess she thinks she needs more time

They won't do a two women ticket. She is going to go with a conventional balancing choice.

 

[Frank the Great]

Clinton / Booker 2016

Thoughts?

I think he brings a younger dynamic and highly "marketable".

If Booker leaves, then I believe Christie gets to appoint his successor until the next election, where the successor will have incumbent advantage. Not sure if it is worth risking a safe seat in the Senate.

 

[Poodlestrike]

Clinton / Booker 2016

Thoughts?

I think he brings a younger dynamic and highly "marketable".

I think it's either going to be him, Julian Castro, or that dude from Virginia. The latter two have better odds, though. especially Castro. Booker only brings the youthful factor, Castro might make the Republicans spend money in Texas, and Virginia's basically a swing state at this point.

But . . . but . . . bu . . . b . . . I was told all the google and twitter metrics, and online polls said Bernie came out of that debate steamrolling towards the nomination?!?!?!

Heh. Online polls. Good 'un.

 

[Frank the Great]

Also, do the post-debate polls prove that the focus groups on the cable news channels were selected to be pro-Bernie? I remember hearing that they all thought Bernie handedly won.

 

[Cheebo]

It was cute when they were trying to point to Bernie having more Google searches during the debate as proof he won it. Of course he had more sesrches. Who in the world l, especially someone politically aware enough to watch a debate needs to google Hillary Clinton? Too funny.

 

[Bowdz]

I think it's either going to be him, Julian Castro, or that dude from Virginia. The latter two have better odds, though. especially Castro. Booker only brings the youthful factor, Castro might make the Republicans spend money in Texas, and Virginia's basically a swing state at this point.

Here's a timely article:

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2015/10/hillary-hints-julian-castro-could-be-vp-pick.html

Courting Hispanic voters in San Antonio, Texas, on Thursday, Hillary Clinton suggested that Housing and Urban Development Secretary Julian Castro is on her list of potential running mates should she secure the Democratic presidential nomination. Speaking at a U.S. Hispanic Chamber of Commerce meeting, Clinton said she would “look really hard at him for anything, because that's how good he is.”

Castro, a former mayor of San Antonio, appeared alongside Clinton at a “Latinos for Hillary” rally later in the day, where he gave her his endorsement, telling the crowd: “The difference between her and the Republican candidates is that she respects the Latino community.”

Castro is the second member of the Obama administration to formally endorse Clinton, after Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack. Castro's twin brother Joaquin, a congressman, has also endorsed her.

At the rally, Joaquin Castro told BuzzFeed that his brother’s endorsement was meant to draw a visible contrast with the anti-immigrant vitriol emanating from the Republican camp. “t will be helpful to Hillary to have somebody out there who is a countervailing force,” he said, “somebody who can vouch for her, but also stands as a symbol of the American dream for millions of Hispanics.”

Clinton’s stop in San Antonio was part of a cross-country tour that began in Nevada and will also take her to New Hampshire and Alabama. The former first lady is clearly looking to build on her momentum after her solid performance in Tuesday night’s Democratic debate.

Latinos are, of course, a key constituency for Democrats, especially in emerging swing states like Nevada and Colorado (as well as the linchpin of the Democratic dream of a purple Texas). Clinton doesn’t have to worry too much about winning their support, though: She outperformed Barack Obama among Latino voters in 2008 and a recent poll found that 73 percent of registered Hispanic Democrats intend to vote for her.

 

[Cheebo]

Also, do the post-debate polls prove that the focus groups on the cable news channels were selected to be pro-Bernie? I remember hearing that they all thought Bernie handedly won.

Well, the focus groups were undecided dem voters. Finding democrats who are undecided in their views about Hillary is not a really good metric for the party as a whole. Very very few are truely undecided in what they think of her.

 

[BertramCooper]

Except that it has nothing to do with funding levels and is just there being no cost-of-living increase due to the numbers being run on the CPI. I bet this affects me as a federal employee as well, I'd imagine whether we get a cost of living increase is also tied to the same metric.

Surprised there isn't an OT topic on the first "real" post-debate poll yet.

From a political standpoint the reasons why it's not being increased don't really matter.

What DOES matter is that seniors aren't going to be happy about the lack of an increase and it presents an opportunity for Clinton to talk about Social Security and how it should be expanded. That's something that no Republican candidate will do and is potentially a way to make some inroads with seniors.

 

[Grexeno]

I'm very certain either Mark Warner or Tim Kaine will by Hillary's VP pick.

 

[Lucky Forward]

Republicans have been dropping all kinds of truth bombs lately.

RNC Chair: GOP 'Cooked As A Party' If We Don't Win 2016 Election

"However, I think that we have become, unfortunately, a midterm party that doesn't lose and a presidential party that's had a really hard time winning," Priebus told the Examiner. "We're seeing more and more that if you don't hold the White House, it's very difficult to govern in this country — especially in Washington D.C."

"So I think that — I do think that we're cooked as a party for quite a while as a party if we don't win in 2016. So I do think that it's going to be hard to dig out of something like that," he continued.

But Priebus said he feels "history is on our side."

 

[BertramCooper]

But Priebus said he feels "history is on our side."

When the fuck has history EVER been on the side of conservatives?

 

[RustyNails]

i want Kamala Harris as VP but i guess she thinks she needs more time

I predicted Harris will be part of the democratic bench back in 2008. But she's running for Boxer's seat in 2016. She'll be ready by 2024 and face off Cory Booker

Also, anyone remember the Franken-Weiner 2016 dream ticket from 2008? Yeah

 

[And_Gignac]

The NBC/Survey Monkey online poll looks like this:

Who did best in the debate?
Clinton 37%
Sanders 28%
Webb 4%
None of them 27%


Clinton 45 (+3)
Sanders 31 (+2)
Biden 10 (-5)

People under 30:

Sanders 54%
Clinton 26%

If only they werent the less likely demo to vote. Sigh.

 

[Makai]

When the fuck has history EVER been on the side of conservatives?

He means 3rd terms are less common.

 

[Ignatz Mouse]

Are there any real polls about who won the debate, or polls in general conducted post-debate?

I'd like to see a) what the scientific polling says about the debate and b) if my theory that they made no impact was true.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

So why not Cruz?

I’ve listed five reasons why I’m taking a second look at Cruz, but I don’t want to understate my skepticism of his chance of winning. He still hasn’t addressed the No. 1 reason I thought his campaign would have trouble: support from the party actors. In campaigns since 1980, no candidate hated by the establishment has won.

... How many Republican primaries does this consist of? 1984, 1992, and 2004 there no nominations. 1988 and 2000 were fucking obvious. That leaves 2008, 2012, 1996, and maybe 1980 as the only non-obvious primary selections for Republicans. That's four data points!

 

[Makai]

Trends change. That's only a few primaries, anyway. Cruz can totally win this.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

Trends change. That's only a few primaries, anyway. Cruz can totally win this.

Absolutely. I can't imagine Trump voters ever going to Rubio and Ben Carson voters seem like a natural fit for Cruz.

 

[Cheebo]

The NBC/Survey Monkey online poll looks like this:

Who did best in the debate?
Clinton 37%
Sanders 28%
Webb 4%
None of them 27%


Clinton 45 (+3)
Sanders 31 (+2)
Biden 10 (-5)

People under 30:

Sanders 54%
Clinton 26%

If only they werent the less likely demo to vote. Sigh.

Even if they voted in higher numbers the base of registered voters for primaries is overwhelmingly older. Obama had the one two punch of young people + minorities. And Obamas younger base was the below 50 age group, he had a bigger buffer of "youth". Sanders missed out on that second half of the equation.

The war is over melkr, time to come home!

 

[Lucky Forward]

Has this been posted?

Ben Carson Campaign: No Suspension, We’re Continuing to Hold Public Events

Ying Ma, the deputy communications director for the Ben Carson campaign, tells me that “rumors about Dr. Ben Carson suspending his campaign are all nonsense. We will be holding multiple fundraisers and public/semi-public events between now and the next GOP debate.”

"The confusion about the suspension originated from a story written by an ABC reporter who was an embed on our campaign bus. She has not been invited to participate in our fundraisers (which are all closed to the press), and she certainly isn’t accompanying Dr. Carson to his interviews about his new book. Unfortunately, she has interpreted her lack of access to him as a suspension of the campaign. She is very much mistaken."

I had the impression that the point of the "suspension" was to avoid the appearance that he was personally profiting off of his campaign.

 

[NeoXChaos]

Even if they voted in higher numbers the base of registered voters for primaries is overwhelmingly older. Obama had the one two punch of young people + minorities. And Obamas younger base was the below 50 age group, he had a bigger buffer of "youth". Sanders missed out on that second half of the equation.

The war is over melkr, time to come home!

You don't expect a lot of youth to show up in the February cold in IA and the NH primaries in big numbers?

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

The most important poll finding from PA- 52% of Dems, only 37% of GOP have a positive opinion of cheesesteaks

Dems win again.

 

[Future PhaZe]

NBC online poll.



From September 27th:



So... Jeb has 11 days to start polling like a presidential candidate or he's going to lose his money.

republican party is dead

 

[BertramCooper]

He means 3rd terms are less common.

Okay, that makes sense.

I thought he was making a broader statement.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

John Kerry is being attacked by Ted Cruz and the rest of the far right for these comments:

"What's happening is that, unless we get going, a two-state solution could conceivably be stolen from everybody," Kerry said. "And there's been a massive increase in settlements over the course of the last years, and now you have this violence because there's a frustration that is growing."

http://www.jpost.com/Israel-News/Politics-And-Diplomacy/Kerry-to-visit-Israel-amid-crisis-423892

Umm...

 

[pigeon]

I'd be dumping money into Cruz right now. Best we're gonna get.

From an establishment point of view Cruz is actually probably the worst candidate. Trump/Carson/Fiorina are at least incompetent. Cruz is a capable politician who deliberately spends all his time focusing on attacking his own party while actually serving in office for that party as part of his campaign to take the party over. Cruz is probably much more dangerous for the GOP's future success.

 

[mightynine]

I had the impression that the point of the "suspension" was to avoid the appearance that he was personally profiting off of his campaign.

Didn't we have a quote from his campaign that said as such, or was that just a line from a story?

EDIT: from the linked ABC News story (that may have been edited since first published):

Republican presidential contender Dr. Ben Carson has put his public campaign events on hold for two more weeks to go on book tour for his new tome “A More Perfect Union” and catch up on fundraising events.

The campaign has been careful to separate campaign events and the book tour, and doesn’t want to classify the tour as related to the campaign in any way.

This week he is catching up on fundraising events and will be back on his book tour next week making stops in Texas, Oklahoma, Missouri, Kansas, Nebraska and Iowa. So for the next two weeks, Carson won't be appearing at any public "campaign events."

Carson will be going back and forth between campaign fundraising events and book tour events over the next two weeks. His campaign says he has over 20 campaign fundraising events scheduled over that time period.

The campaign says the next time they will appear publicly with Carson will be the day of the next GOP debate on Oct. 28. His last public campaign event was Oct. 2.

Carson's campaign staff will not travel with him while on tour, noting that it’s better to stay off the trail for fear of being accused of using campaign assets to sell books.

“It’s a question of co-mingling from the corporate standpoint to the Federal Election Commission standpoint so it’s just better to avoid any bad appearance,” spokesman Doug Watts told ABC News.

So it looks like Carson's campaign wants to make the argument that "no public events" is not the same as "suspending campaign", which is probably correct.

 

[Poodlestrike]

Republicans have been dropping all kinds of truth bombs lately.

RNC Chair: GOP 'Cooked As A Party' If We Don't Win 2016 Election

I still can't believe his actual name is Reince Priebus.

 

[Retromelon]

When the fuck has history EVER been on the side of conservatives?

Remember when reagan won the cold war without ever firing a shot

 

[bodyofanamerican]

Wow, Trump got CNBC to change their debate rules.

 

[NeoXChaos]

David Paleologos ‏@davidpaleologos 7m7 minutes ago
Suffolk University/Boston Globe poll shows dead heat in NH Democratic Primary: Clinton 37, Sanders 35, Biden 11, Others 5, Und 12

Hillarymentum?

 

[B-Dubs]

I still can't believe his actual name is Reince Priebus.

Now if only we could get him to say it backwards.

 

[gcubed]

McCarthy was the best thing to ever happen to Hillary. Not only has the tone of the email conversation changed, you now have other people coming out saying the same things, even one of the independent investigators.

This lined up perfectly with her questioning next week where she will be completely on the offensive now. This time in front of the panel can be just as important as a debate for her, it will completely run out the email topic if she controls it

 

[ivysaur12]

Hillarymentum?

RETURN OF THE JEDI

 

[NYCmetsfan]

McCarthy was the best thing to ever happen to Hillary. Not only has the tone of the email conversation changed, you now have other people coming out saying the same things, even one of the independent investigators.

This lined up perfectly with her questioning next week where she will be completely on the offensive now. This time in front of the panel can be just as important as a debate for her, it will completely run out the email topic if she controls it

The scandal hunters are pushing out trash. The times came out today with literally nothing. Just a story how unnamed sorces were upset at Obama for voicing and opinion and fox says the FBI investigation focused on the "gross negligence" portion of the law. (This actually cuts against the idea she intentionally was trying to scurt the law and shows that at worst some shoddy IT work was done and things not marked properly)

 

[RustyNails]

McCarthy was the best thing to ever happen to Hillary. Not only has the tone of the email conversation changed, you now have other people coming out saying the same things, even one of the independent investigators.

This lined up perfectly with her questioning next week where she will be completely on the offensive now. This time in front of the panel can be just as important as a debate for her, it will completely run out the email topic if she controls it

I am just bewildered and still cannot wrap my head around it. I keep asking people why he would say such a thing. "Because he dumbass" doesn't cut it. You don't make it to be Boehner's left hand by being a goober.

He was probably drunk or on drugs.

 

[Coriolanus]

McCarthy's slip is just another form of Please proceed, guvnah. Sometimes you simply forget youre in a bubble.

 

[gcubed]

The scandal hunters are pushing out trash. The times came out today with literally nothing. Just a story how unnamed sorces were upset at Obama for voicing and opinion and fox says the FBI investigation focused on the "gross negligence" portion of the law. (This actually cuts against the idea she intentionally was trying to scurt the law and shows that at worst some shoddy IT work was done and things not marked properly)

I read the FBI article on nytimes today and shook my head. Anonymous sources at nytimes for this story should basically garner a gigantic eyeroll at this point.

McCarthy shut down attack ads that the GOP already had lined up (im sure they will still waste money on it). He basically ruined the only thing they had even remotely going for them

 

[Makai]

McCarthy's slip is just another form of Please proceed, guvnah. Sometimes you simply forget youre in a bubble.

I still remember that eye twitch thing Romney did. He was thinking, "I fucking got him."

 

[Lucky Forward]

I am just bewildered and still cannot wrap my head around it. I keep asking people why he would say such a thing. "Because he dumbass" doesn't cut it. You don't make it to be Boehner's left hand by being a goober.

He was probably drunk or on drugs.

You see it again and again, when a politician is in front of a friendly audience (Hannity in this case) they forget that a wider audience will wind up hearing their words. Obama did it with the "cling to guns and religion" remarks.

 

[BertramCooper]

"Because he's a dumbass" is a sufficient explanation for McCarthy's flub, as far as I'm concerned.

We're talking about a guy who was trying to run for Speaker of the House despite having had a very well-known affair with a fellow member of Congress.

Dude is super dumb.

 

[B-Dubs]

"Because he's a dumbass" is a sufficient explanation for McCarthy's flub, as far as I'm concerned.

We're talking about a guy who was trying to run for Speaker of the House despite having had a very well-known affair with a fellow member of Congress.

Dude is super dumb.

Super dumb might be underselling it. The man can barely form sentences.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Booker and Harris are solid candidates for a bench in 2020 or 2024. For right now Harris is running for the Senate and Booker doesn't have much experience. He'd be an ok pick for Hillary's VP but Kaine or Castro would be better.

 

[PhoenixDark]

NBC online poll.



From September 27th:



So... Jeb has 11 days to start polling like a presidential candidate or he's going to lose his money.

Basically he has to come out swinging in the debate at the end of this month. If not Rubio is the captain now.

 

[B-Dubs]

Basically he has to come out swinging in the debate at the end of this month. If not Rubio is the captain now.

Trump is going to sink their battleship.

Booker and Harris are solid candidates for a bench in 2020 or 2024. For right now Harris is running for the Senate and Booker doesn't have much experience. He'd be an ok pick for Hillary's VP but Kaine or Castro would be better.

She should pick Castro just so I could see my dad's reaction.

 

[RustyNails]

Castro is too green. He will make Dan Quayle sound like Neil DeGrasse.

 

[PhoenixDark]

John Kerry is being attacked by Ted Cruz and the rest of the far right for these comments:



http://www.jpost.com/Israel-News/Politics-And-Diplomacy/Kerry-to-visit-Israel-amid-crisis-423892

Umm...

This is playing with fire. I agree with Kerry's statement, this is on Israel. Just as the riots of the 60s and current day are on white America. But just as any semblance of "defending" or even understanding riots is met with derision here, I'd expect similar outrage aimed at Kerry from Israel, Jewish politicians, media folks, etc.

Even if he tries to resign, Obama should refuse to accept his resignation. Not saying this is gonna come to that point, but clearly republicans are going to try to make this a big story.

 

[CharlieDigital]

Castro is too green. He will make Dan Quayle sound like Neil DeGrasse.

I've not been too impressed with Castro what little I've seen of him. In a serious policy debate, I think he may have a hard time against a more experienced politician. You can't pick the guy just to get the Hispanic vote and wager that against potential undecideds and moderates.