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[pigeon]

The current GOP plan appears to be to pass a 20 month abortion ban to appease the members who are trying to use Planned Parenthood funding to shut down the government. Obama would almost surely veto a 20 month abortion ban. Then what?

Probably nothing.

Basically, the situation is that Boehner and McConnell don't want to shut down the government, and obviously neither does Obama, Pelosi, or Reid. Between them they control all the veto points and plenty of votes, so they should be able to keep the government open fairly easily.

The problem, of course, is that part of John Boehner's caucus wants to shut down the government. Theoretically they want to shut it down to get rid of Planned Parenthood, but the reality is that they mostly just want to fight to the death, and shutting down the government is part of that. There are probably a half-dozen Representatives who would be okay with shutting the government down forever, really, so it's easy for them to want to shut down the government in any individual situation.

The percentage of Tea Partiers in the GOP House is small. But there are enough of them to do three things -- require Democratic support to pass a CR, prevent Boehner's election as Speaker without Democratic support, and scare the other Republicans into being afraid to take votes that will be read as giving in to the Democrats.

Boehner doesn't need the Tea Partiers to keep the government open. The question is whether he needs them to keep his job. So what he wants to do, and what he's generally done, is give them something -- something symbolic, like a vote on an abortion ban, or something minor, like a brief shutdown to prove that it's tactically unsound -- and then go ahead and do the thing he was always going to do.

So a plan where Boehner allows a vote on a 20-week abortion ban in exchange for allowing a vote on a continuing resolution is a win for a lot of people. Everybody gets to keep the government open, and people who want to keep the government open but want to show fight get to show fight. People who really do want to shut everything down lose, but they SHOULD lose.

The question is whether this will be sufficient to pacify the large percentage of the GOP caucus that wants to keep the government open while still being able to defend themselves against attacks from the right.

 

[Poodlestrike]

Yeah, sorry. I disagree completely. Wanna think that it was a display of antisemitism when it was properly labeled, go right ahead.

It wasn't properly labeled, though. Or if it was, it's got some damn ugly associations.

Look, it's like why the Obama administration's current messaging refuses to address groups like Isis as "radical islam." Because it implies that it's their religion that's primarily motivating them, thus tying them in to the rest of Islam. That the only difference between them and the other billion is the degree of faith.

 

[Coriolanus]

It wasn't properly labeled, though. Or if it was, it's got some damn ugly associations.

Look, it's like why the Obama administration's current messaging refuses to address groups like Isis as "radical islam." Because it implies that it's their religion that's primarily motivating them, thus tying them in to the rest of Islam. That the only difference between them and the other billion is the degree of faith.

Like i said, we will never come to an agreement. To me the sentence says "jews that just so happen to hold extremist views will be driven right up the fucking wall", which, given that Metsfan elaborated that Jews wouldn't give a toss, shows that it is something that he completely glossed over, since his point in that regard wasn't the one I made. To you it's also making a greater point about judaism being a great scourge. Sorry, no middle ground will be found.

In the same manner, you reconstructed the sentence in your parallel. I did not write radical judaism, thus the comparison with a line like radical islam is flawed.

 

[Poodlestrike]

Like i said, we will never come to an agreement. To me the sentence says "jews that just so happen to hold extremist views will be driven right up the fucking wall", which, given that Metsfan elaborated that Jews wouldn't give a toss, shows that it is something that he completely glossed over, since his point in that regard wasn't the one I made.. To you it's also making a greater point about judaism being a great scourge. Sorry, no middle ground will be found.

In the same manner, you reconstructed the sentence in your parallel. I did not write radical judaism, thus the comparison with a line like radical islam is flawed.

I don't think that you're trying to make a point about Judaism being a scourge, I'm saying that the words you used did. "Radical" (in the non-90's sense of the word) implies that the subject or group holds more extreme than usual beliefs; see: radical environmentalist, radical animal rights activist, etc. Groups such as these are not united in goals, just in... I don't know, degree? In the same way, radical jews would be those who are like regular ones, but moreso.

I'm not saying you're a bad person, just objecting to your language.

 

[And_Gignac]

And yet another poll having Clinton in the middle 30s, within a 12 points distance of Sanders. Her plummeting is amusing but scary too. Is she such a fragile candidate? How will she fare in the generals once the attack ads are on full force?

Sep 5-9
Clinton 35%
Sanders 23%
Biden 12%

(Ipsos/Reuters)

 

[RustyNails]

It wasn't properly labeled, though. Or if it was, it's got some damn ugly associations.

Look, it's like why the Obama administration's current messaging refuses to address groups like Isis as "radical islam." Because it implies that it's their religion that's primarily motivating them, thus tying them in to the rest of Islam. That the only difference between them and the other billion is the degree of faith.

I dont see anything wrong in corianlus (sp? Whatever) reasoning. I'm a muslim and I dont have problem labeling people as muslim extremists/ radicals. Same thing with any group. There will always be a true-believer subgroup under any ideology/philosophy. Referring to them by any terminology is moot because we know these people exist. No need to throw around accusations of antisemitism or Islamophobia when someone use these terms.

 

[Plinko]

And yet another poll having Clinton in the middle 30s, within a 12 points distance of Sanders. Her plummeting is amusing but scary too. Is she such a fragile candidate? How will she fare in the generals once the attack ads are on full force?

Sep 5-9
Clinton 35%
Sanders 23%
Biden 12%

(Ipsos/Reuters)

I wouldn't say she's fragile--just uninspiring. She has been around forever and I think that plays a role in public perception.

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

And yet another poll having Clinton in the middle 30s, within a 12 points distance of Sanders. Her plummeting is amusing but scary too. Is she such a fragile candidate? How will she fare in the generals once the attack ads are on full force?

Sep 5-9
Clinton 35%
Sanders 23%
Biden 12%

(Ipsos/Reuters)

Where are you getting these numbers?

Hillary Clinton continues to lead among Democrats nationwide, with 42% of Dems, however the magnitude of her lead continues to diminish. Sanders (28%) continues to make small gains on the front-runner.

http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=6984

Heh, check out how they botched Ben Carson's name in that release. Ben Cardin.

 

[B-Dubs]

I wouldn't say she's fragile--just uninspiring. She has been around forever and I think that plays a role in public perception.

Biden's unwillingness to jump in or rule out a run plays in it as well, he's keeping the numbers unstable right now as he's currently acting as an x-factor. From the looks of just the numbers alone there's also a pretty big contingent of undecideds who may have decided to wait and see what else happens with the race. It doesn't necessarily mean she's doing badly, but at this point in the cycle perception plays a much bigger role than anything else. We're not gonna see these numbers stabilize until Biden makes up his mind and we have the first debate.

EDIT: I actually can't find these numbers either. Where are you seeing them?

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

Enthusiasm gap is a myth?

 

[thezerofire]

Doesn't seem like Huckabee knows anything about the Constitution

Huckabee: Dred Scott Decision “Remains To This Day The Law Of The Land”

 

[Abinash117]

Where are you getting these numbers?


http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=6984

Heh, check out how they botched Ben Carson's name in that release. Ben Cardin.

Its combing independents and dems . It is also an online poll; I don't see it on RCP.

 

[Fenderputty]

GOP shuts government down over 20 week abortion ban and then Boehner capitulates and drops a clean CR. In trying to do the right thing while appeasing the whack jobs, he still upsets the extreme base which gets super pissed and tries to oust him as speaker. Boehner is forced to seek aid from Pelosi to retain his speakership. Pelosi somehow extracts another deal out of this and publicly thanks Boehner for his support over this liberal deal she extracted. We rejoice as Tea Party nuts cry. Trump then wins GOP nom due to further radicalized base. Clinton or whatever Dem wins and sails to the national victory after ground stomping Trump in the debates. One liberal and one conservative judge each leave the SCOTUS to be replaced by two liberal judges. ACA remains along with all of Obamas executive orders.

 

[And_Gignac]

Where are you getting these numbers?


http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=6984

Heh, check out how they botched Ben Carson's name in that release. Ben Cardin.

Democrats + Independents likely to vote, I guess?

http://www.ipsos-na.com/download/pr.aspx?id=14865

 

[pigeon]

Democrats + Independents likely to vote, I guess?

http://www.ipsos-na.com/download/pr.aspx?id=14865

24% "would not vote," including 37% of self-identified independents.

Counting all independents equally with Democrats even if they say they wouldn't actually vote in the Democratic primary is very weird methodology.

 

[HylianTom]

GOP shuts government down over 20 week abortion ban and then Boehner capitulates and drops a clean CR. In trying to do the right thing while appeasing the whack jobs, he still upsets the extreme base which gets super pissed and tries to oust him as speaker. Boehner is forced to seek aid from Pelosi to retain his speakership. Pelosi somehow extracts another deal out of this and publicly thanks Boehner for his support over this liberal deal she extracted. We rejoice as Tea Party nuts cry. Trump then wins GOP nom due to further radicalized base. Clinton or whatever Dem wins and sails to the national victory after ground stomping Trump in the debates. One liberal and one conservative judge each leave the SCOTUS to be replaced by two liberal judges. ACA remains along with all of Obamas executive orders.

It's like you're reading my mind.

When the budget holdover passes with PP funding intact, with Boehner staying in, the reaction from the right is going to be nuts. I could see Cruz and Trump both getting good mileage off of these events.

I hope Obama smiles broadly and really rubs it in when he signs that funding bill.

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

24% "would not vote."

What the fuck kind of poll is this? A lot of states don't even allow independents to vote in the party primaries.

 

[Abinash117]

24% "would not vote."

I don't think in some states independents can't even vote for a nominee for a party. Don't know why they would include them.

 

[Aaron Strife]

GOP shuts government down over 20 week abortion ban and then Boehner capitulates and drops a clean CR. In trying to do the right thing while appeasing the whack jobs, he still upsets the extreme base which gets super pissed and tries to oust him as speaker. Boehner is forced to seek aid from Pelosi to retain his speakership. Pelosi somehow extracts another deal out of this and publicly thanks Boehner for his support over this liberal deal she extracted. We rejoice as Tea Party nuts cry. Trump then wins GOP nom due to further radicalized base. Clinton or whatever Dem wins and sails to the national victory after ground stomping Trump in the debates. One liberal and one conservative judge each leave the SCOTUS to be replaced by two liberal judges. ACA remains along with all of Obamas executive orders.

In 2016, Democrats gain 29 seats in the House. They cut a deal for Richard Hanna to switch parties and make him Speaker.

Obama's last achievement as president is signing a background check bill into law - passed after Schumer eliminates the filibuster.

 

[ivysaur12]

Jesus at 45% Democratic voter ID.

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

I think it's funny that melkr criticized me for singling out polls yesterday and yet here we are with this individual singling out a largely irrelevant subsection of a single poll.

Jesus at 45% Democratic voter ID.

Online polling is usually garbage.

 

[Coriolanus]

Obama's last achievement as president is signing a background check bill into law - passed after Schumer eliminates the filibuster.

Even in that dream scenario, would he be able to accrue enough dem support for that? Sounds intensely unlikely

 

[NeoXChaos]

I think it's funny that melkr criticized me for singling out polls yesterday and yet here we are with this individual singling out a largely irrelevant subsection of a single poll.



Online polling is usually garbage.

We have become pollGAF

 

[GnawtyDog]

It's kinda long but worth a read: How the White House kept Democrats from killing the Iran deal. Highlights:

Schumer is simply not fit to take that role. He can whip if he wants to.

 

[Fenderputty]

Even in that dream scenario, would he be able to accrue enough dem support for that? Sounds intensely unlikely

HOPE!

 

[Aaron Strife]

Even in that dream scenario, would he be able to accrue enough dem support for that? Sounds intensely unlikely

Check the username

I think if democrats swung say, 40 seats in the House and didn't have to worry about the filibuster in the Senate they could do it. Of the Democrats who voted against it, only Heitkamp is still in the Senate, while presumably Toomey, McCain, Kirk and Collins would vote yes on it again. That's 49. Assuming Kirk loses reelection (no net change) and Feingold beats Johnson (+1) - and that no newly elected Democrat would oppose the bill - it would be right at 50 with

Spoiler

President-elect

Biden breaking the tie, even without a Democratic majority.

Of course, that's assuming no filibuster and that it would make it out of committee. We'd need Majority Leader Schumer.

 

[Snake]

It woudn't do anything for Jews. Jews don't equal pro-israel hardliners.

This rhetorical antisemitism is so present in politics. Its annoying to read people write stuff like this and think nothing of it.

I agree that it's dumb and should be pushed back at every opportunity, but it's not at all surprising based on how the media reports on things like the Iran Deal. Practically every article I've read from regular news outlets has spoken of support for the deal putting Democrats in a tough spot with Jewish voters, which is absolute nonsense in most circumstances, but is casually repeated as if it is universal political wisdom.

 

[And_Gignac]

I think it's funny that melkr criticized me for singling out polls yesterday and yet here we are with this individual singling out a largely irrelevant subsection of a single poll.



Online polling is usually garbage.

I am not singling it out. The poll "official" results are the "total" numbers. There is creed behind Ipsos/Reuters polling, but I do agree the methodology is weird, specially because it doesnt reflect Biden´s recent surge.

The point I was trying to make still stands, Clinton is having big drops all over the place without even having attack ads on national TV. Or are we willing to accept the e-mail gate is resonating with the public?

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

I am not singling it out. The poll "official" results are the "total" numbers. There is creed behind Ipsos/Reuters polling, but I do agree the methodology is weird, specially because it doesnt reflect Biden´s recent surge.

The point I was trying to make still stands, Clinton is having big drops all over the place without even having attack ads on national TV. Or are we willing to accept the e-mail gate is resonating with the public?

If it's "official" then why is it hidden deep away inside their PDF? Their actual post on their website uses the Dem numbers and so does pollster.com when they inputted into their database. We'll see which one RCP decides to go with.

The point you were trying to make hardly stands at all considering it was almost completely dependent on her being in the 30s. Her polling in the 40s is par for the course given how many we've seen like that (with a few 50 readings when Biden is not included).

 

[Jack Remington]

If emailgate is seriously resonating with the public I might actually move. We'd be in full-on Idiocracy if that's the case.

 

[B-Dubs]

What the fuck kind of poll is this? A lot of states don't even allow independents to vote in the party primaries.

I saw that and had the same thought. Those independent numbers will only matter in a handful of primary states.

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

I saw that and had the same thought. Those independent numbers will only matter in a handful of primary states.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Open_primaries_in_the_United_States

Of the states in that list. Only a few would make a difference and many have demographics that favor Clinton/Biden.

 

[User1608]

If emailgate is seriously resonating with the public I might actually move. We'd be in full-on Idiocracy if that's the case.

People are dumb and irrational. Argh.

 

[NeoXChaos]

People are dumb and irrational. Argh.

Are u related to HylianTom? You both have a Hylian name or maybe you both are big Legend of Zelda fans.

 

[Jack Remington]

Are u related to HylianTom? You both have a Hylian name or maybe you both are big Legend of Zelda fans.

He was Tom's history teacher.

 

[User1608]

Are u related to HylianTom? You both have a Hylian name or maybe you both are big Legend of Zelda fans.

the latter!

He was Tom's history teacher.

Zelda lore is no joke!

 

[Coriolanus]

Zelda lore is no joke!

It is to nintendo.

 

[Retromelon]

Look can we please get back to poring over poll numbers rather than talk about zelda

 

[thepotatoman]

How was schumer twisting the knife in Obama's back? He opposed the deal but didn't whip.

Would Party Leader Schumer whip for Obama in the same position?

Isn't it a big problem if he wouldn't?

 

[User1608]

It is to nintendo.

I'm aware of that.

Look can we please get back to poring over poll numbers rather than talk about zelda

I'm personally not too worried in the long run, in regards to Hillary. As long as emailgate is all she has, I believe she'll rebound, especially if she has strong performances at the debates. I believe she will.

 

[Retromelon]

I was being /s
Anything is better than more poll discussion

 

[dramatis]

I was being /s
Anything is better than more poll discussion

It's Friday. There's nothing to bloody talk about.

How's your roach problem.

 

[ivysaur12]

Anyone have fun plans? I'm going to Vegas

Spoiler

baby

 

[teiresias]

Wait 20 month abortion ban only for Planned Parenthood or as in an unconstitutional country-wide 20 month abortion ban? I hope the delusional GOPers think it's the latter, that would be hilarious.

 

[PantherLotus]

Don't forget about that Biden-Warren meeting. Talk about a neutralizing ticket.

 

[User1608]

I was being /s
Anything is better than more poll discussion

I know, hah hah. Just had to chime in, because I believe I didn't beforehand. It's cooooool.

 

[NYCmetsfan]

Would Party Leader Schumer whip for Obama in the same position?

Isn't it a big problem if he wouldn't?

That's a legit question! I'm just opposing the thought that schumer in this instance stabed him in the back. He didn't do damage.

 

[Retromelon]

It's Friday. There's nothing to bloody talk about.

How's your roach problem.

I've been keeping quiet about it because I know no one clicks on this thread to hear my bullshit but since you asked...
I haven't seen many lately. A day or two ago i looked in the corner of my room, and i saw a big, dead one (all the ones i get are big and round and fat. Ugh) keeled over with its legs up in the air. It must have been an outside party. The spiders are my only allies in this war
Letthemfight.gif

 

[NYCmetsfan]

I've been keeping quiet about it because I know no one clicks on this thread to hear my bullshit but since you asked...
I haven't seen many lately. A day or two ago i looked in the corner of my room, and i saw a big, dead one (all the ones i get are big and round and fat. Ugh) keeled over with its legs up in the air. It must have been an outside party. The spiders are my only allies in this war
Letthemfight.gif

Buy Roach baits?

 

[Retromelon]

Aint nobody got time for dat.