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PoliGAF 2015 |OT2| Pls print

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It's not all his fault, no. But he bears a considerable amount of responsibility for it.

OFA was supposed to become a powerful grassroots political force that would benefit Democrats across the country. That hasn't come remotely close to happening.

Hillary has already been very outspoken about needing to rebuild the party at all levels, which is encouraging. She's got a lot of work to do.

Party officials want more money for the party, what a shock! Obama's problem isn't that he failed to build the infrastructure, its that he ignored Syria and let ISIS take over a good chunk of the Middle East. People seeing Islamic terrorists chop peoples heads off on TV every night cost the Dems 10x the number of votes than any of these internal problems.
 
Party officials want more money for the party, what a shock! Obama's problem isn't that he failed to build the infrastructure, its that he ignored Syria and let ISIS take over a good chunk of the Middle East. People seeing Islamic terrorists chop peoples heads off on TV every night cost the Dems 10x the number of votes than any of these internal problems.

Yes, Democrats have lost 11 governorships and 30 state legislative chambers in the Obama era because of ISIS.
 

Wilsongt

Member
Party officials want more money for the party, what a shock! Obama's problem isn't that he failed to build the infrastructure, its that he ignored Syria and let ISIS take over a good chunk of the Middle East. People seeing Islamic terrorists chop peoples heads off on TV every night cost the Dems 10x the number of votes than any of these internal problems.

I... what?

No, seriously. What?
 

NeoXChaos

Member
Bertram saw it firsthand in OH of all places. It shocking that OH is a swing state considering the romp Democrats take in midterms in OH with the exception of 06. That OH article really was eye popping.
 
Yes, Democrats have lost 11 governorships and 30 state legislative chambers in the Obama era because of ISIS.

Seriously? Do you not remember the news in October 2014? It was 80% ISIS and ebola coverage. No one was even talking about the election. This pushed swing voters to the Republicans and depressed Democratic turnout.

I'm not saying that grassroots organizing isn't important but modern campaigns with billion dollar budgets are much more about setting a national agenda and then getting your core groups out to vote. The Obama campaign did an excellent job of the in 2008 and 2012. You seriously think they just didn't try in the off year elections? They did but were swamped by the national narrative about the economy and ISIS / ebola respectively.
 

Diablos

Member
I had mentioned in another thread:
with Sarah friggin' Palin on the ticket, Dubya's approval ratings in the 20s/30s, Katrina bungled, Iraq mired, the financial sector melted-down, cheerleadery media coverage for Obama.. the GOP ticket still got 45% in 2008.

Winning a third time in a row is going to be tough. The shittiness of the last decade is quickly fading in voters' memories. They start to take for granted certain things, and as they get comfortable, they start to warm-up to the idea of giving the keys back to the guys who drove us into the ditch in the first place. Things are likely going to be tight, regardless of whom they nominate.
So, prepare to lose then?

Also it seems like Biden is not running if his Colbert interview is an indication. He almost talked like he already made up his mind. Amazing interview though.
 
Bertram saw it firsthand in OH of all places. It shocking that OH is a swing state considering the romp Democrats take in midterms in OH with the exception of 06. That OH article really was eye popping.

Exactly!

2006: National narrative is that Bush is destroying the country and the Dems have a huge win.

2010: People only care about the economy and Republicans win basically everything

2014: News cycle is dominated by ISIS and ebola which gives the Reps enough of a margin to win lots of marginal races.

Having the dominant narrative is far more important than local organizing in winning specific elections
 
I am reading the cnn piece on behind the scenes effort on the Iran deal throughout the summer. Reads something out of a hollywood script. Obama, Reid and Moniz fuckin delivered. Wow.
 
Seriously? Do you not remember the news in October 2014? It was 80% ISIS and ebola coverage. No one was even talking about the election. This pushed swing voters to the Republicans and depressed Democratic turnout.

I'm not saying that grassroots organizing isn't important but modern campaigns with billion dollar budgets are much more about setting a national agenda and then getting your core groups out to vote. The Obama campaign did an excellent job of the in 2008 and 2012. You seriously think they just didn't try in the off year elections? They did but were swamped by the national narrative about the economy and ISIS / ebola respectively.

Ask the hardcore Obama volunteers who fought like hell for him in '08 and '12 about what happened in '10 and '14. Obama built up this amazing grassroots volunteer base and then did fuck-all to figure out how to use it in midterms and in state races.

Grassroots organizing is incredibly important when you're a party whose base has severe issues with turnout. You can't just blame the national media landscape for everything and absolve Obama and OFA of any responsibility for such historic losses at every level. Democrats were inevitably going to suffer losses in 2010 and 2014, but they didn't have to be completely decimated.
 
Party officials want more money for the party, what a shock! Obama's problem isn't that he failed to build the infrastructure, its that he ignored Syria and let ISIS take over a good chunk of the Middle East. People seeing Islamic terrorists chop peoples heads off on TV every night cost the Dems 10x the number of votes than any of these internal problems.

Complete and utter bullshit.
 

NeoXChaos

Member
Ask the hardcore Obama volunteers who fought like hell for him in '08 and '12 about what happened in '10 and '14. Obama built up this amazing grassroots volunteer base and then did fuck-all to figure out how to use it in midterms and in state races.

Grassroots organizing is incredibly important when you're a party whose base has severe issues with turnout. You can't just blame the national media landscape for everything and absolve Obama and OFA of any responsibility for such historic losses at every level. Democrats were inevitably going to suffer losses in 2010 and 2014, but they didn't have to be completely decimated.

Well Axelrod alluded to it in a recent Politico article:

“I would be the first to concede that we had failed to build a sturdy infrastructure for Democrats from the bottom up,” David Axelrod says. “The Republican Party and supporting oligarchs like the Koch Brothers have invested exponentially more time and resources into building electoral strength from the grass roots up, concentrating on down ballot state offices, legislative races—even school board and City Council races. This has helped turn more than a few legislatures from blue to red, and also had created a larger pool of potential candidates for higher offices in the future.”
 
There are a variety of reasons why the party is worse off now than it was in 2008. Part of that is indeed about support of the state infrastructure of the party, sure. But you have to realize that southern democrats were going to get decimated regardless of whether more money was spent at the state level. The democrat party has largely been exterminated in the south since 2010. A lot of that has to do with race, but a lot also simply boils down to Obama being more liberal than many districts are. That caused the bottom to fall out, and it's not coming back anytime soon.

I agree OFA was a failure as well. I know people who expected it to transition into a true movement. They wanted to take over school boards and city councils and fight for change while developing future candidates for congress. A few years later they were being asked to organize in support of cutting entitlements. It was a major fuck up. Angela Davis once said that the biggest problem of Obama's (then one term) presidency was that people thought they won on election night 2008. They thought the game was over, our man is now in Washington and everything will be good. The movement that elected him faded away. They needed to remain active - and I don't mean simply advocate for his policies. As I said, the goal was to take things over on the state level and it never happened.


I am reading the cnn piece on behind the scenes effort on the Iran deal throughout the summer. Reads something out of a hollywood script. Obama, Reid and Moniz fuckin delivered. Wow.
Link?
 

noshten

Member
Well Axelrod alluded to it in a recent Politico article:

Well for grassroots to be an even more important factor - Citizens United needs to be overturned. It's not the national election that's most effected by the huge amount of money being pumped by corporate entities. The fact that there hasn't been much of an effort to change public opinion from DNC mouth pieces says it all. They are also inevitably destroying the importance of grassroots organizations allowing the corporate sponsors to decide local elections.

Obama simply was part of the system so it's no surprise he failed to do anything to address this overwhelming problem. It's also no wonder he didn't do much with the organizational power he build around the election. That type of organization might have actually have the needed lobbying power to put more severe pressure on the DNC to at least try to change the broken system we have right now.
 
Grassroots organizing is incredibly important when you're a party whose base has severe issues with turnout. You can't just blame the national media landscape for everything and absolve Obama and OFA of any responsibility for such historic losses at every level. Democrats were inevitably going to suffer losses in 2010 and 2014, but they didn't have to be completely decimated.

Unemployment in November 2010 was 9.8%, there was literally nothing the Obama or anyone else could do to prevent the Democrats from being destroyed that year. I'll concede that better infrastructure would have helped more in 2014 because the races were closer.

The Axelrod quote isn't really germane to this discussion. Everyone agrees that the Democrats have invested less in local races because they fewer resources to allocate. Having an extra $100 million to spend would be helpful. I agree! The question is how much of this is attributable to the Obama campaign and not outside factors. I continue to argue that its not much.
 
It's kinda long but worth a read: How the White House kept Democrats from killing the Iran deal. Highlights:
Washington (CNN)It was late July and nerves at the White House were high. Sen. Chuck Schumer, the New York Democrat, was widely expected to announce his opposition to the Iran deal -- and dozens of other House and Senate Democrats were threatening to revolt against the nuclear agreement and deliver President Barack Obama a devastating blow on the international stage.

But weeks before it would become public, the White House won a critical assurance that would dramatically change the outlook in Congress: Sen. Harry Reid would support it.

In a private call, the Senate Democratic leader secretly assured Secretary of State John Kerry that he would back the deal, though he would keep quiet about it publicly, Democratic sources said. He promised to help deliver critical information about which Democrats to target -- but Reid himself needed to let about a dozen friends, supporters and donors who were sharply critical of the deal know why he was backing it before his position became public.

What ensued was perhaps the most aggressive and coordinated lobbying drive ever to take shape between congressional Democratic leaders and the Obama White House -- which have frequently been at odds over strategy and tactics. It was a strategy that focused exclusively on House and Senate Democrats, ignoring Republicans altogether.
To quell a Democratic uprising, the White House, Reid and House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi traded key intelligence about uneasy Democrats, dispatching powerful Cabinet officials to lock down support. Over the August recess, Pelosi gave the White House 57 names of House Democrats who were wobbly on the Iran pact; Obama called all of them, including 30 calls to Democratic lawmakers in between rounds of golf during his Martha's Vineyard vacation, according to Democratic sources.

Senate Minority Whip Dick Durbin called almost everyone in his 46-member caucus, interrupting a family vacation in Oregon to lobby skittish Democrats. On a jaunt to Florida last week where he talked about his presidential ambitions, Vice President Joe Biden made a side trip to help woo and eventually win over Florida Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz, an influential Jewish Democrat who was facing fierce protests, including from some activists who charged that she should "go to the oven," a reference to the Holocaust.
Yet it was Ernest Moniz, the Department of Energy secretary and a nuclear physicist, who became the most prolific and effective surrogate, lawmakers said.

Moniz headed to the Detroit area to win over Michigan Sen. Gary Peters this summer. After pro-Israel forces were ratcheting up opposition in Montana, Moniz laid out his views to a local newspaper to help ensure Sen. Jon Tester didn't defect. And he called into a North Dakota radio show to help give political cover to Heidi Heitkamp, the state's centrist Democratic senator.

Moniz was so influential that the final Democrat who announced her support -- Washington Sen. Maria Cantwell -- waited to return to Washington to meet with him to let him reassure her about the capability of inspectors to continue to detect nuclear activity in the country. He told them all that the deal cut off Iran's pathways to building a nuclear bomb.

Reid later privately mused about the possibility of nominating Moniz for the Nobel Peace Prize, according to an aide familiar with the matter.
 
This illustrates why I'm so staunchly opposed to Schumer taking over for Reid.

You can't trust Schumer to do what Reid did in a situation like this, and that's a BIG problem.
Reid and Durbin both worked their asses off, day, night, during and after their vacations while Schumer was twisting the knife in Obama's back. Pelosi also secured House votes. She didn't have to, but she did. Fuck Schumer.
 

aTTckr

Member
Isn't it also a problem that the Democrats don't seem to have as many different internal viewpoints on most topics? The rise of new branches within the Republican party, such as the tea party, with sometimes very different opinions than the "regular" party line, gives younger people like Ted Cruz more opportunities to rise to prominence and also incentivizes them to enter politics because they feel like their entrance can actually change something. If I were a young member of the Democratic party and feel the same way about the issues as the vast majority of the party does, why would I want to enter politics, if the incumbent, who has been in office for many years, basically already stands for the same things I would if I were to run for office.

Obama was obviously somewhat of an exception because of his age and being a newly elected senator, but even he very much echoed the party line. Bernie Sanders could spark some debate within the democrats, but his points aren't really seriously discussed within the party (the DNC seems to want as few debates as possible). The Republicans at least appear to choose their candidates based on their stances, whereas with Democrats it often seems like seniority is the deciding factor.
 
Reid and Durbin both worked their asses off, day, night, during and after their vacations while Schumer was twisting the knife in Obama's back. Pelosi also secured House votes. She didn't have to, but she did. Fuck Schumer.

I really wish Durbin hadn't come out and endorsed Schumer for the post and were instead challenging him for it.

I hope Patty Murray runs for it.
 

Iolo

Member
Obama was obviously somewhat of an exception because of his age and being a newly elected senator, but even he very much echoed the party line. Bernie Sanders could spark some debate within the democrats, but his points aren't really seriously discussed within the party (the DNC seems to want as few debates as possible). The Republicans at least appear to choose their candidates based on their stances, whereas with Democrats it often seems like seniority is the deciding factor.

Have you only followed US politics for the last couple years? Republicans have always chosen their candidate based on the next-in-line.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
So, prepare to lose then?

Also it seems like Biden is not running if his Colbert interview is an indication. He almost talked like he already made up his mind. Amazing interview though.

I know you're right, but after that interview I really wish he would run. Not just in a joking way because I want to see a Biden/Trump debate.
 
I take most of the GOP rise to not be a failure of dems but the rise of resentment and ideas of revanchism at the rise of the Obama and a liberal president.

They are appalled, retiring (which gives them time), white and scared that their country the 1950s anticommunist paradise they've told themselves is America is dying (they're right btw). They see everything as attacking their status, privilege and personal sense of themselves being "good people." Which is driving them to the polls where they can get victories against this process.

What I don't see in the rise of the GOP is anything that's building a sustainable party and ideology that won't have to course correct in the very near future (next 10 or 15 years)
 
I'd imagine Durbin decided not to challenge Schumer when he realized he couldn't win. Obama would certainly prefer Durbin but it's not his decision.
 
Unemployment in November 2010 was 9.8%, there was literally nothing the Obama or anyone else could do to prevent the Democrats from being destroyed that year.

You'd need to go back in time and teach millions of people about civics and economics to prevent one of the worst examples of mass idiocy I've seen in my life. Hell, probably THE worst.
 
Reid and Durbin both worked their asses off, day, night, during and after their vacations while Schumer was twisting the knife in Obama's back. Pelosi also secured House votes. She didn't have to, but she did. Fuck Schumer.

Oh man, imma ship something now. Monitz and that iranian minister of foreign affairs, Zarif, sharing a nobel peace prize. That'd be so freaking awesome. Would drive radical jews and republicans right up a freaking wall.
 
I think part of the problem (a biiiig part of the problem) is that a huge majority of the Obama coalition is made up of demographics that don't usually vote. That's all. I'm sure a lot of older white people who vote in every election used to vote Democratic but have flipped Republican since Obama came on with his coalition of minorities, young people and single women.

When they do turn out we get situations like 2012 where Democrats won 25 Senate elections (literally more than half of their current caucus) and almost certainly would have won the House majority under the 2010 maps. But Democrats need to figure out a long-term strategy for making these voters regular voters. 2010 was inevitable given the economy, 2014 was not. There is no excuse for losing Senate seats in Iowa and Colorado, or blowing Florida, Maine, Maryland or Massachusetts.
 

PantherLotus

Professional Schmuck
I take most of the GOP rise to not be a failure of dems but the rise of resentment and ideas of revanchism at the rise of the Obama and a liberal president.

They are appalled, retiring (which gives them time), white and scared that their country the 1950s anticommunist paradise they've told themselves is America is dying (they're right btw). They see everything as attacking their status, privilege and personal sense of themselves being "good people." Which is driving them to the polls where they can get victories against this process.

What I don't see in the rise of the GOP is anything that's building a sustainable party and ideology that won't have to course correct in the very near future (next 10 or 15 years)

Yes exactly, a thousand times.

Blaming Obama for lost governorships is hilariously short-sighted. Would you rather give up Obamacare and have all those back?
 

Cheebo

Banned
Joe Biden insiders see a campaign taking shape
http://www.politico.com/story/2015/09/joe-biden-2016-campaign-taking-shape-213545

People around Joe Biden are increasingly convinced he’ll run for president — and Thursday, he took the next step forward, using his appearance at a union rally here to unveil what for all intents and purposes would be his 2016 stump speech.

In and around the vice president’s office, planning and outreach for the expected run is intensely underway, creating an energy that looks to those close to it like a campaign taking shape. They’re talking to donors, they’re connecting with old supporters, they’re starting to think about potential campaign staff hires, according to people familiar with the activity.

The vice president’s small staff has been struggling to keep up with the demands of the sudden attention on him, whether that’s planning events or staffing them, or dealing with the media frenzy that’s intensified every day for Biden since he started more actively exploring a run while on vacation in South Carolina last month.
Biden’s top advisers are also starting to tackle the reality that contributed to his 2008 run being such a flop: Biden’s four decades being the king of Delaware gave him relatable roots to talk up, but never required him to build much of a political network or get particularly good with donors (or get to know too many of them). They know that they’ll have to bring new people on board very quickly to rapidly change up their entire operation, with an emphasis on political experience more recent than the 1990s.

Still, Biden hasn’t made final a decision, and people familiar with his thinking say they wouldn’t be shocked if he lands on no. What he says in private is similar to what he says in public—things like, “I don’t know if I’ve got enough good days to outweigh the bad days.”

But the reasons to run appear to be piling up in his mind.
Despite the many doubts he expressed in his Thursday interview with Stephen Colbert, Biden made more people watching him closely believe that he’ll get himself to yes when he told the Late Show host, “You’ve got to get up. And I feel like I was letting down Beau, letting down my parents, letting down my family if I didn't just get up.”

The raw emotion and honesty he displayed throughout that appearance also got pro-Biden hearts racing. It’s exactly why they think he’d win if he got into the race.

This is getting crazy.
 

dabig2

Member
I think part of the problem (a biiiig part of the problem) is that a huge majority of the Obama coalition is made up of demographics that don't usually vote. That's all. I'm sure a lot of older white people who vote in every election used to vote Democratic but have flipped Republican since Obama came on with his coalition of minorities, young people and single women.

When they do turn out we get situations like 2012 where Democrats won 25 Senate elections (literally more than half of their current caucus) and almost certainly would have won the House majority under the 2010 maps. But Democrats need to figure out a long-term strategy for making these voters regular voters. 2010 was inevitable given the economy, 2014 was not. There is no excuse for losing Senate seats in Iowa and Colorado, or blowing Florida, Maine, Maryland or Massachusetts.

I'd imagine running away from literally all accomplishments and shitting on all you work-in-progresses (ACA for example) did the party no favors. It's true that a lot of voters who propelled them to easy victories in 2008 and 2012 aren't your typical voters, especially in midterms.

BUT, you need to give them a reason to go out and vote. Instead, with the party taking a shit on Obama and appeasing Conservatives, should we really be surprised that the Dem vote was at its weakest in several generations? When will Dem politicians realize that voters don't take too kindly to that kind of shit.
 
Lol, two freshmen teabaggers resigned after being expelled out of the Michigan legislature for having an affair and making an elaborate story about it

LANSING, Mich. — One of two socially conservative Michigan lawmakers embroiled in scandal over their extramarital affair and a cover-up attempt resigned early Friday morning rather than be expelled by his colleagues.

Republican Rep. Todd Courser announced his resignation, effective immediately, and was escorted out of the chamber. His decision came amid a marathon overnight session in the House over whether he and Rep. Cindy Gamrat should stay in their jobs.

"I just felt like it was the appropriate moment to do it," Courser told reporters. "I put everybody through a whole bunch — across the state, my own family, the constituents, the people in this room. ... Whether it was the third vote or the fourth vote or the fifth vote, they were going to eventually get me."
Courser, 43, of Lapeer, has admitted sending an "outlandish" phony email to GOP activists and others in May claiming he was caught with a male prostitute. The email was intended to make his affair with the 42-year-old Gamrat appear less believable if it were exposed by an anonymous blackmailer who Courser said was demanding his resignation.

The self-smear email called Courser a "bi-sexual porn addicted sex deviant" and "gun toting Bible thumping ... freak" and Gamrat a "tramp."
Wtf LOL
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Joe Biden insiders see a campaign taking shape
http://www.politico.com/story/2015/09/joe-biden-2016-campaign-taking-shape-213545



This is getting crazy.

Honestly, that part quoted by the article, about needed to get up, made me feel like he was going to run, but that story about meeting the military families and losing it over Beau made me feel like he wasn't. After seeing that interview, I felt like he wants to run but it might be a few months too soon.

I honestly wish he would run, the climate feels perfect for a candidate like him and it'd show people who think Trump speaks his mind what real honesty looks like.
 
Reid and Durbin both worked their asses off, day, night, during and after their vacations while Schumer was twisting the knife in Obama's back. Pelosi also secured House votes. She didn't have to, but she did. Fuck Schumer.

How was schumer twisting the knife in Obama's back? He opposed the deal but didn't whip.
 

Cheebo

Banned
To be a fly on the wall in Clinton HQ if Biden gets in would be amazing. They are smart enough to know Bernie isn't going anywhere in the end. Biden? Biden could beat her and they know that.
 
Oh man, imma ship something now. Monitz and that iranian minister of foreign affairs, Zarif, sharing a nobel peace prize. That'd be so freaking awesome. Would drive radical jews and republicans right up a freaking wall.

It woudn't do anything for Jews. Jews don't equal pro-israel hardliners.

This rhetorical antisemitism is so present in politics. Its annoying to read people write stuff like this and think nothing of it.
 
Joe Biden insiders see a campaign taking shape
http://www.politico.com/story/2015/09/joe-biden-2016-campaign-taking-shape-213545



This is getting crazy.

On one hand I'd like to see him run just because it could be good for him, and would be fun to see if he could beat Hillary. On the other hand I have so much respect for the man that I hope he doesn't run, simply to avoid the potential embarrassment. Not to mention the fact that I'm not convinced he's emotionally fit to run right now. Maybe that changes in the coming weeks.

As I said in the other thread, his authenticity is the perfect contrast to Hillary. And as VP he could have some claim on Obama's coalition.
 

Teggy

Member
The current GOP plan appears to be to pass a 20 month abortion ban to appease the members who are trying to use Planned Parenthood funding to shut down the government. Obama would almost surely veto a 20 month abortion ban. Then what?
 
It woudn't do anything for Jews. Jews don't equal pro-israel hardliners.

This rhetorical antisemitism is so present in politics. Its annoying to read people write stuff like this and think nothing of it.

Key word: radical. As in: extremists. As in: the people that respond well to bibi's rethoric. As in: pro-israel hardliners.

Knee-jerking is bad, mmmkay?
 
Key word: radical. As in: extremists. As in: the people that respond well to bibi's rethoric. As in: pro-israel hardliners.

Knee-jerking is bad, mmmkay?

Saying "radical Jews" implies that it's their Judaism that's radical, and thus ultimately responsible for their pro-Israel stance. I know Orthodox who support a two-state solution.

You're equating it with Zionism, which is exactly the kind of rhetoric NYCMetsfan was talking about.
 
Saying "radical Jews" implies that it's their Judaism that's radical, and thus ultimately responsible for their pro-Israel stance. I know Orthodox who support a two-state solution.

You're equating it with Zionism, which is exactly the kind of rhetoric NYCMetsfan was talking about.

Yeah, sorry. I disagree completely. Wanna think that it was a display of antisemitism when it was properly labeled, go right ahead.
 
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