Coriolanus
Banned
"the whole party"?
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PoliGAF 2015 |OT2| Pls print
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PhoenixDark
Banned
The economy is bad for many people. Like, really bad. Stagnant wages and limited job options. This has been the case for quite awhile, and there is no hope of anything happening in congress. Meanwhile Obama's focus is on everything except the economy.
His polling hasn't really moved at all in months, despite a host of "legacy shaping" moves/wins/etc. That tells you people have tuned the president out, and that people's focus is elsewhere.
I think the arrival of the 2016 election has essentially reminded voters of how let down they've been by the Obama presidency, and now they're looking for any other option. Hillary is the worst candidate to run in an election where politicians are this disrespected by the electorate.
Well, not just them. I think this debate is going to begin the pile on. There have been so many articles about GOP fundraisers and strategists and establishment figures getting antsy about Trump and only lately have various candidates started attacking him on the stump and to the press. I think this debate is going to reflect this change.
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
Zero of that explains why his approval, at worst, has been the same for years now. It's actually gotten better by some measures. Doesn't explain the party as a whole suddenly losing to numerous GOP candidates when they were doing better for a long time.
Polarization. Polls showing those early results were never going to hold. Trump or whoever was and will be is going to poll like a generic R. 40-45%
blah blah "polls don't matter" blah blah.
JesseEwiak
Member
Do you want me to go find polls showing Herman Cain beating Obama?
Are you joking? Outside of the economy not being amazing (but still doing well) and HIllary not being an electrifying candidate, things are lining up very nicely for democrats in terms of winning issues and voter trends.
PhoenixDark
Banned
TLDR: the failure of the democrat party to address the economy for the middle class has resulting in more voters gravitating to the GOP candidates.
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
I read what you wrote. I just think, once again, you've completely failed to explain anything with any sense of logic.
If it was all Obama's fault his approval in Gallup today wouldn't be +3.
The Gaming Gamer
Member
He also didn't even wait to respond to Colbert's political questions, he responded with a scripted response as soon as Colbert finished, it was so odd and unnatural. The whole thing was a disaster, saying his brother wasn't conservative enough, his mom didn't want him to run, he will somehow bring the parties together, etc.
People don't care about foreign policy.
I think you're overthinking this. There weren't a bunch of polls out today, there was just one poll out today.
In that sample there were 395 registered Democrats and Democrat leaners and 474 Republicans and Republican leaners.
So, I mean, of course the Republican candidates did really well in the poll. If that's what the electorate looks like next year, the Republicans will win the White House, no question.
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
Losing to Ben Carson by 3 is not that great of a look. Then you got Trump beating Sanders in another poll.
That goes beyond Clinton.
There was an Emerson College poll.
Do you have a link?
Coriolanus
Banned
Indeed. Which is why Republicans so often repackage it as "keeping the country safe from foreign threats".
This poll has like 12% undecided on every matchup. Those people aren't really undecided. There aren't 12% undecided people in all of America. They're just expressing frustration with the contest.
This is actually the exact same thing Mitt Romney saw in 2008. Obama was leading him by like 13 points with 10% reporting as undecided before the first debate. But all those undecided voters were just waiting for a reason to start telling people they liked Mitt Romney. As soon as he did well in the first debate he popped up to within a few points and the undecided number plummeted.
I would venture a guess, although admittedly it's just a guess, that since all the Democrats are underperforming, most of those undecided voters are Democrats who are currently unhappy. But we've got a year to convince them to get their shit together and vote. They will not stay that way forever.
JesseEwiak
Member
Again, there were poll showing Herman Cain beating Obama in 2012. 45% of each side would vote for Satan themselves if they had an R or D by their name, and the other 10% are people who don't know how the federal government works, let alone what policies people have unless it's blasted into their home with 90 gazillion ads.
Retromelon
Member
What should they have done to address it? Care to back up your assertion? The only thing I think they could propose that might pass are tax cuts.
Is there a reason why realclearpoltics and huffpost differ on using certain pollsters?
I saw Bams link a poll like this one that was not in the rcp average.
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/polls/morning-consult-22702
I saw Bams link a poll like this one that was not in the rcp average.
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/polls/morning-consult-22702
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
RCP is kind of bullshit. They pick and choose who gets in. Pollster just lets in everything and lets the math sort of work itself out.
RustyNails
Member
This is why I'm jaded by US politics so much...I'm not at all interested in it as much as I was say 10 years ago. The destiny of the entire free world, global markets, war and peace depends on a bunch of corn farmers in the middle of iowa who are dumb enough to fail a citizenship test. It's too much.
Coriolanus
Banned
Wouldn't be surprised if republicans then started going on about bububu the deficit, wher muh fiscal responsibility and blocked that thing anyway.
Well, it beats the old method of "which royal sperm hit the ovary first and managed to survive to adulthood?" that the human race used for most of it's history.
JesseEwiak
Member
Eh, that's every country though. I mean, even in Europe, who suddenly deserve race based populism the moment brown people showed up, they all have their idiotic voters.
The truth is, people are stupid, and a technocratic government would be awesome, except it'd be taken over by those with corrupt interests, and not actually run to the benefit of all. Ya' know, worse system except for all the others.
RustyNails
Member
At least with royal sperm you don't have to worry about idiots dragging the whole thing down. Whoever said democracy is two wolves and a sheep deciding whats for dinner is so fricking apt.
Honestly I think parliamentary system has more representation than our current set up. It is a better reflection of the state of the country than just two parties.
Part of me wishes Biden would get in, if only to contrast for the American people the Democrats' conversation against the shitshow on the other side. If it stays Hillary vs Bernie, the two candidates are going to remain polite in their disagreements, and the media will remain relatively bored.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Well I must say if the electorate is only 3% Hispanic we're going to be in some serious shit!
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
I was honestly thinking of e-mailing them at that link to inquire about why the electorate is 80% white at first glance. Surely they adjusted the weighting or something and those are just the raw numbers.
Retromelon
Member
Every man that ever lived to call himself a king was naught but a damned fool
T
thepotatoman
Unconfirmed Member
The effects of the Daily Show and Colbert Report both dieing is finally catching up to us.
Seriously though. It's just one poll. No need to freak out about it yet.
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
Not just one poll anymore though. The averages have narrowed significantly.
eBay Huckster
Member
honestly i'm having a hard time giving a shit about any polling south of the canadian border right now
Coriolanus
Banned
Every man is a damn fool for at least five minutes a day. Wisdom consists of not exceeding the limit.
Hobbestetrician
Member
Cons dropping to third in polling, hopefully it continues that way.
I've even seem them add a poll and then retract it later.
j_k_redtail
Member
Nope.
The AP didn't do exit polling in 19 states in 2012. Georgia was one of them. There was no racial breakdown in 2012 polling because of it, which is very frustrating (not just for Georgia, but for a host of other states).
In 2008, Obama won 98% of the black vote. McCain won 2%. Obama won 23% of the white vote. McCain won 76%. No other races were reported in 2008 exit polls for Georgia.
However, Black Belt states went more Democratic in 2012 than they did in 2008, (click "Change from '08" below the map) while the rest of the state went more Republican like most states in the country save for Alaska (which had the biggest swing towards the Dems without Palin on the ticket), Mississippi, Louisiana, New Jersey, and Maryland. MS and LA are interesting, especially MS, which has the highest black population of any state in the country.
I'm not thinking about PA. PA will be going blue no matter what and the state legislature won't be able to gerrymander the EV either, because Wolf is the Governor. I'm more concerned with Dems in the general election. If even Donald Trump can all but evaporate Hillary's lead in an increasing number of polls, that is not a good thing. Pretty sure we were all under the assumption that Trump would never be able to do that.
I had mentioned in another thread:
with Sarah friggin' Palin on the ticket, Dubya's approval ratings in the 20s/30s, Katrina bungled, Iraq mired, the financial sector melted-down, cheerleadery media coverage for Obama.. the GOP ticket still got 45% in 2008.
Winning a third time in a row is going to be tough. The shittiness of the last decade is quickly fading in voters' memories. They start to take for granted certain things, and as they get comfortable, they start to warm-up to the idea of giving the keys back to the guys who drove us into the ditch in the first place. Things are likely going to be tight, regardless of whom they nominate.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Quinnipiac said:
I will never understand this mindset. If I walked into their farm/plumbing/etc. business and told them I thought experience that had almost nothing to do with the job is better, they would flip.
President, though? Pfft. Anyone can do it, am I right?
Roland_Gunner
Member
Basically that just shows each party will get 45% of the vote no matter what. Four years later despite having the worst economy since the Great Depression that % only went up by three points. The blue / red divide is real.
BertramCooper
Banned
It's a fair point when you consider what has happened to state legislatures during Obama's presidency.
Obama built up remarkably good campaign infrastructures for his presidential campaigns and then did fuck-all to leverage them for state races and midterms.
That's not all completely Obama's fault, though. Also, you have to look at how many Democrats ran away from Obama and his policies in 2014. So, I don't feel Obama completely turned his backed on those who voted him in.
BertramCooper
Banned
It's not all his fault, no. But he bears a considerable amount of responsibility for it.
OFA was supposed to become a powerful grassroots political force that would benefit Democrats across the country. That hasn't come remotely close to happening.
Hillary has already been very outspoken about needing to rebuild the party at all levels, which is encouraging. She's got a lot of work to do.
That's true... The Democratic party really does need a rallying point to come together to take on that juggernaut machine the GOP has going on right now...
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