All told, Clinton has averaged 59 percent to Sanderss 27 percent in national polls without Biden since the debate. In an average of all polls without Biden in the month before the debate, Clinton was at 53 percent to Sanderss 29 percent.
Clinton has also gotten a boost in New Hampshire, home to the first primary. New Hampshire has been a weak spot for Clinton. She hadnt led in a single New Hampshire poll taken in August or September. In fact, Sanders was up by an average of 43 percent to 35 percent in the month before the debate.3 In five New Hampshire polls taken since the Oct. 13 debate, Clinton has led in three to Sanderss two. On average, theyre essentially tied: Sanders is at 40.6 percent to Clintons 40.2 percent.
If Sanders falls behind in New Hampshire, it will be very bad news for his campaign. Not only is New Hampshire right next door to Sanderss home state, Vermont, its also filled with his base voters: white liberals. If Clinton wins New Hampshire, its probably a sign that Sanders wont be competitive in most states outside of Vermont.
CHANGE IN CANDIDATE SUPPORT, PRE- TO POST-DEBATE
POLLSTER CLINTON SANDERS
ABC/Washington Post +11 -4
CNN/ORC -1 +5
Emerson +15 -9
Monmouth +4 -5
Morning Consult +2 +2
NBC/WSJ +5 -5
Average +6.0 -2.7