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PoliGAF 2015 |OT2| Pls print

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M

Mike M

Nick N
I'm still amazed at the durability of Trump and Carson's poll numbers. The GOP electorate is just fucking done with the party.
 
C

Cheebo

Banned
I was looking at the Bernie Sanders Reddit to see how they are handling this big Hillary momentum of late. Many there are calling for a ban on discussing polls because of how innaccurate they are lololol.
 
J

Joe Shlabotnik

Banned
Diablos said:
So there are 5 debates left, right?

It's just gonna be Hillary, Bernie and O'Malley. One of them will probably drop out soon. Holy shit. What happens if we get to the final debate and Hillary has no one to debate, lol.
Click to expand...

Then there's no debate. The last one is after Super Tuesday, so I doubt they'll hold it, honestly.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Mike M said:
I'm still amazed at the durability of Trump and Carson's poll numbers. The GOP electorate is just fucking done with the party.
Click to expand...

My daily/weekly discussion with republicans over the past year showed exactly this and it is why I kept trying to tell everyone in here that Trump and Carson had a real chance to win the nomination.
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
NeoXChaos said:
I hope she wins IA and NH so this primary can finally end.
Click to expand...

Five months of "LOL GOP/Who's her VP gonna be?" discussion.. :p

rs_300x300-151022155736-Hillary_Clinton_Benghazi_9.gif


...

And the factor that the GOP voters really hate their own party right now? Still in effect.

Paul Ryan is being regarded as a sellout, and I'm seeing a lot of folks even upset at the Freedom Caucus for not being willing to burn Congress to the ground in this storyline. When the debt limit is raised and the government is funded, this sentiment of hate - almost a sense that they've been repeatedly betrayed by their elected officials - will only be strengthened.
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
Y2Kev said:
Thank god psycho fiorina is done for.
Click to expand...
That PP freakout sure did flop. Guess voters did some research and realized she supports gay marriage. She'll have another strong debate and be propped up by commentators again.

Carson coming out against Medicare is going to sink him eventually. Trump should have a field day attacking him on that. $2000 doesn't cover a lot of shit for seniors. Low key I do like the idea of telling seniors to get fucked instead of the typical "well we'll phase things out in 10 years so current seniors aren't impacted." Nah, fuck them now. Maybe that will convince them to stop being selfish assholes.
 
C

Cheebo

Banned
Carson is going to win Iowa. The guy is like custom made for the Iowa caucuses. They love going with wacko hardcore Christian candidates. This is a state won previously by Hucksbee and Santorum. Real question is what will go down in New Hampshire?

Will it be Trump or an establishment favorite?
 
benjipwns

benjipwns

Banned
Hillary should just skip the rest of the debates.

Mainly because the lone Sanders-O'Malley debate in a couple weeks with a desperate O'Malley would be funny.
 
P

pigeon

Banned
In lighter news, we won't have Lincoln Chafee to kick around any more.

https://twitter.com/AP/status/657532741655859200?ref_src=twsrc^tfw

He actually raised some excellent points in his concession speech about America's military hegemony and how we're using it aggressively to damage our status in the world.

chafee said:
The United States of America is so strong militarily, economically and culturally that we can take chances for peace. In fact, as a strong mature world leader, we must take chances for peace. If we have courage, if we take risks, we can have Prosperity through Peace, not just in the United States, but all over the world.

Do we want to be remembered as a bomber of weddings and hospitals? Or do we want to be remembered as Peacemakers, as pioneers of a more harmonious world?
Click to expand...

I mentioned in another thread that Hillary's biggest difference from the Democratic Party as a whole is that she's just a lot more hawkish than the average Democrat, but there's nobody who can actually challenge her on it. Chafee is the candidate who actually tried to point this out, but unfortunately he was terrible, and so now he's gone forever.

http://www.vox.com/2015/10/23/9602782/lincoln-chafee-drops-out
 
B

Bowdz

Member
So is that Cheryl Mills' lucky shawl? She suited up with it at the beginning of the 2013 hearing and again at the beginning of the hearing yesterday.
 
benjipwns

benjipwns

Banned
Jeb Bush on Friday ordered across-the-board pay cuts to his struggling presidential campaign.

Staffers were informed of the news of a Friday conference call.

On the call, staffers were informed that job functions would change for some and that there would be across the board pay cuts.

One person on the Friday morning staff call said they were left with the impression that "very few people will be left in Miami."
Click to expand...
Jeb!mentum!
 
N

Nazgul_Hunter

Member
The one silver-lining about Citizens United that I've noticed so far is that no matter how much Super PAC money you raise, you still need a shitton of money to your campaign to be able to run an actual campaign. See: Jeb Bush and Scott Walker this year.

However, I hope that's not an argument people grasp on to to say that CU is a reasonable policy
 
A

AndyD

aka andydumi
Nazgul_Hunter said:
The one silver-lining about Citizens United that I've noticed so far is that no matter how much Super PAC money you raise, you still need a shitton of money to your campaign to be able to run an actual campaign. See: Jeb Bush and Scott Walker this year.

However, I hope that's not an argument people grasp on to to say that CU is a reasonable policy
Click to expand...

It is an interesting aspect. I think if anything we will get a push to allow more cooperation so they can use that huge money pot for their staff (or move staff to PACs).
 
Y

Yellowtail

Member
The spin from Bloomberg is hilarious:

The campaign is parting ways with some consultants and downsizing its staff at their Miami headquarters in moves that will save more than $1 million per month and cut payroll by 40 percent this week, according to Bush campaign officials who requested anonymity to speak about internal changes.

The campaign is also cutting back 45 percent of its budget, except for dollars earmarked for TV advertising and spending for voter contacts, such as phone calls and mailers. Some senior-level staff and consultants will continue to work with the campaign on a volunteer basis, while other junior-level consultants, primarily in finance but including other areas, will be let go, the officials said.

Bush's advisers, under pressure from their donors and from falling and stagnant poll numbers, have been discussing ways to retool the campaign in recent days, and came to the conclusion that a course correction was essential. While recent tangles with Donald Trump have energized the campaign, Bush's senior team recognized a more fundamental set of changes was required that didn't involve dealing directly with the party's surprising—and surprisingly durable—front-runner.

Officials said the changes will enable them to shift more resources into New Hampshire, where the campaign has the largest operation in the state, and other states where early voters begin casting ballots in February. There will be more volunteers and surrogates for Bush, which the campaign refers to as “friends of Jeb,” on the ground to help in a state that his brother lost in 2000 and his father won in 1988.

One Bush adviser told Bloomberg Politics in an interview Friday morning that the team was “unapologetic” about the changes, saying the moves were from a “position of strength.” “This is about winning the race,” the adviser said. “We’re doing it now and making the shifts with confidence. We expect to win.”

Symbolically, the changes turn Bush from an establishment battleship into a more scrappy underdog, making radical alterations in how the campaign operates in order to avoid the existential threat the campaign now faces. When his brother George W. Bush ran for president in 2000, he was the fundraising leader from start to finish and never had to contemplate such draconian cuts.
Click to expand...

Mark Halperin on twitter is all: Jeb is aping McCain 2008! This is a great news for Jeb!
 
M

Maledict

Member
Marco's going to end up the establishment candidate simply because he was the only one smart enough to throw tons of money at a campaign from the very start.

When will they learn? Hilary thought this would get her the nomination in 2008 - it didn't. Romney thought the same thing, and it didn't. In 2012, Romney thought it was sewn up but candidates like Gingrich and Santorum who lived off the land and spent nothing managed to almost knock him out.

When it comes to primaries, going big early is *bad*. Grassroots work is cheap, and far more effective. Shock and Awe simply doesn't work when your opponent is spending nothing and staying in the race.

At this rate, Bobby freaking Jindal will be still in the race when Bush drops out.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
PhoenixDark said:
That PP freakout sure did flop. Guess voters did some research and realized she supports gay marriage. She'll have another strong debate and be propped up by commentators again.

Carson coming out against Medicare is going to sink him eventually. Trump should have a field day attacking him on that. $2000 doesn't cover a lot of shit for seniors. Low key I do like the idea of telling seniors to get fucked instead of the typical "well we'll phase things out in 10 years so current seniors aren't impacted." Nah, fuck them now. Maybe that will convince them to stop being selfish assholes.
Click to expand...

Except I still don't think he will attack him.
 
R

RDreamer

Member
AndyD said:
It is an interesting aspect. I think if anything we will get a push to allow more cooperation so they can use that huge money pot for their staff (or move staff to PACs).
Click to expand...

Already doing it in Wisconsin. They're changing the campaign finance rules so outside groups can now coordinate with the candidates. They also doubled the amount you can contribute to a candidate, but that's pretty meaningless if the candidates can coordinate with groups that can collect unlimited amounts anonymously.
 
C

Cheebo

Banned
BertramCooper said:
If Jeb! weren't such an arrogant arsehole, he'd drop out soon so that another establishment candidate could scoop up a bunch of the big endorsements he's gotten.

But I don't see that happening any time soon.
Click to expand...

Yeah if he dropped out today Rubio would swoop in there and pick everything up. I mean other than Jeb Rubio is the only legitimate establishment guy left.

Walker quit. The establishment hates Cruz. Christie & Kasich are going nowhere.
 
B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Cheebo said:
Yeah if he dropped out today Rubio would swoop in there and pick everything up. I mean other than Jeb Rubio is the only legitimate establishment guy left.

Walker quit. The establishment hates Cruz. Christie & Kasich are going nowhere.
Click to expand...

What about Bobby Jindal? It's his time to shine!
 
N

neurosisxeno

Member
Cheebo said:
Yeah if he dropped out today Rubio would swoop in there and pick everything up. I mean other than Jeb Rubio is the only legitimate establishment guy left.
Click to expand...

And that's why he was my pick for the Republican Nomination. Once you get out of Iowa and NH he is the only one with broad appeal. Jeb! was never going to win, his family is baggage incarnate...
 
benjipwns

benjipwns

Banned
Makai said:
Wait, wtf. The Facebook headline says he was found guilty. Actual sources say he was acquitted. Zuckerberg!
Click to expand...
There's more than one, Jesse Benton is the famous one:
http://www.npr.org/sections/itsallpolitics/2015/10/22/450973704/former-aide-to-rand-paul-acquitted-in-corruption-probe said:
Jesse Benton, a long-time adviser to Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., has been acquitted in a federal corruption probe of former Rep. Ron Paul's 2012 presidential campaign.

A jury in Des Moines, Iowa, found Benton not guilty of lying to FBI agents when interviewed about pay-offs made by the campaign of Ron Paul, who is the father of Sen. Paul, after the 2012 Iowa caucuses. The jury found another campaign staffer, Dimitri Kesari, guilty of causing the campaign to file false reports with the Federal Election Commission. But Kesari was acquitted on a second charge, and the jury couldn't reach verdicts on three others.

Earlier, a judge had dismissed other charges against Benton and all charges against a third Paul ally. John Tate managed Ron Paul's 2012 campaign and founded America's Liberty, a superPAC currently backing Rand Paul's presidential bid.

Benton was chairman of Ron Paul's 2012 campaign. He managed Rand Paul's 2010 Senate campaign in Kentucky, and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell's re-election campaign last year. This year, Benton was running America's Liberty superPAC. He's also part of the Paul family; his wife is Ron Paul's grand-daughter and Rand Paul's niece.

...

The case revolved around former Iowa state senator Kent Sorenson. In 2011, he was the salaried state chairman for GOP presidential hopeful Michele Bachmann. Weeks before the Iowa caucuses in January 2012, he abandoned Bachmann to support Ron Paul.

Sorenson later said the Paul campaign paid him $73,000 to switch, and he pleaded guilty to federal corruption charges. A grand jury indicted Benton, Tate and Kesari in 2014, alleging the Ron Paul campaign had concealed the purpose of the payments and the three politicos had tried to cover up the episode.
Click to expand...
 
B

Black Republican

Member
Cheebo said:
Yeah if he dropped out today Rubio would swoop in there and pick everything up. I mean other than Jeb Rubio is the only legitimate establishment guy left.

Walker quit. The establishment hates Cruz. Christie & Kasich are going nowhere.
Click to expand...

Jebby also spent nearly a million on private jet flights, jesus dude.
 
P

pigeon

Banned
Wow. Jeb is getting ready to fold shop.

Lesson 2 of the 2016 campaign: establishment candidates respond to establishment pressure. Non-establishment candidates don't.
 
P

Poodlestrike

Banned
Nazgul_Hunter said:
The one silver-lining about Citizens United that I've noticed so far is that no matter how much Super PAC money you raise, you still need a shitton of money to your campaign to be able to run an actual campaign. See: Jeb Bush and Scott Walker this year.

However, I hope that's not an argument people grasp on to to say that CU is a reasonable policy
Click to expand...

I don't know if I'd call it a reasonable argument, but I would point out that a lot of the CU fears have turned out not to materialize. Money in politics is a very real problem, but it's clearly not the defining variable in most races.
 
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