Black Republican
Member
7 out of 10 day their minds aint made up yet though, should be interesting if tommorows debate pushes the numbers further in carsons favor
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PoliGAF 2015 |OT2| Pls print
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7 out of 10 day their minds aint made up yet though, should be interesting if tommorows debate pushes the numbers further in carsons favor
BertramCooper
Banned
Carson's rise seems like the last hurrah of evangelicals or something.
I bet Fuckabee is furious over it.
I bet Fuckabee is furious over it.
Rubio is loving this shit. He's sitting back with his hot wife and just waiting for Carson and Trump to ruin each other so he can finally take the lead.
itshappening.gif
GOP Obama here we come~~
I hate saying this but I hope Trump survives. He'll never win the GE. Please make it through this, Trump.
BertramCooper
Banned
The problem for Rubio is that it's hard for me to see Trump and Carson supporters going to him.
If Trump and Carson take each other out, someone like Ted Cruz seems better positioned than Rubio to pick up that bloc of support.
Naw. Ted has lost his credibility. Trump and Carson are the new Ted Cruz, and way better at that whole 'outsider' thang.
When Trump falls, it's the establishment's turn.
Trump's problem is that he can't articulate anything. He came out of the gate with xenophobia, racism, sexism... and no substance. Like hope and change inspired Democrats, hate and fear inspired Repbublicans; the difference is, once Obama finished inspiring people he also laid out a plan for what he wanted to do as President. Trump is basically like "I'll make it work, trust me. Also, fuck immigrants."
Sounds like confirmation bias for the Rubio predictors!
Dominican Power
Member
Who is this clown talking in the press conference? This budget deal sounds like shit. More money for the military. GREAT!!!!
Ignatz Mouse
Banned
I am in the Rubio camp and I thought the exact same thing.
"maybe" and "momentum" in the same assertion sounds like reaching.
McCarthy seems bitter that Obama's still in the White House. He just oozes anger when he mentions it.
"We could've done a different budget.. if there were someone else in the White House.." #harrumph!
(And fuck you, Scalise! Eat a bag of spicy ghost pepper dicks!)
I'd rather the military money be part of the actual budget than magically not counted like before.
T
thepotatoman
Unconfirmed Member
538: Bernie Sanders Could Win Iowa And New Hampshire. Then Lose Everywhere Else.
I guess Iowa only matters when it comes to theories about Trump losing the race.
I guess Iowa only matters when it comes to theories about Trump losing the race.
Yesterday, MSNBC was covering how Trump has been quietly building a legitimate GOTV machine in Iowa. Imagine the headlines if he surprises people that night. Imagine the party's freak-out.
====
And the more I think about it, the more I realize: I need to start hoarding time off for next year. There's no way I'm going in to work the following morning after these fun nights of returns.
Dates to Consider:
Iowa: Mon, Feb 1
New Hampshire: Tues, Feb 9 (<-- Mardi Gras Day)
Super Tuesday: Tues, March 1
RNC: July 18-21
DNC: July 25-28
Pres debate #1: Mon, Sept 26
VP debate: Tues, Oct 4
Pres debate #2: Sun, Oct 9
Pres debate #3: Wed, Oct 19
Election Day: Tues, Nov 8
Nate has this weird idea that voter preferences are 100% locked by demographic group months out from the first primary/caucus.
Roland_Gunner
Member
Seriously. Rubio got a small bump a few weeks back but has plateaued at 8% - 10%. The only reason he stands out at all is Jeb's implosion leaves no other 'establishment' candidates.
He's not wrong though, it'll take way more than a little momentum to beat Clinton. Remember that Bernie isn't Obama, not by any stretch of the imagination.
User 463088
Banned
Sherrod Brown endorses Hillary
My Senator! That's a good get for HIllary. I think the only other big player left on the table, outside POTUS, is Warren.
My Senator! That's a good get for HIllary. I think the only other big player left on the table, outside POTUS, is Warren.
QuiteWhittle
Member
Sherrod Brown endorsed Hillary Clinton.
Edit: Beaten by a second
These are the only Democratic senators who haven't endorsed Clinton yet:
Maria Cantwell – WA
Chris Coons – DE
Bob Menendez – NJ
Jeff Merkley – OR
Harry Reid – NV
Jon Tester – MT
Elizabeth Warren – MA
Ron Wyden – OR
Edit: Beaten by a second
These are the only Democratic senators who haven't endorsed Clinton yet:
Maria Cantwell – WA
Chris Coons – DE
Bob Menendez – NJ
Jeff Merkley – OR
Harry Reid – NV
Jon Tester – MT
Elizabeth Warren – MA
Ron Wyden – OR
Please give me a detailed list which makes Rubio the GOP Obama cause I'm lost.
Roland_Gunner
Member
Nate Cohn has a pretty effective smackdown for that poll:
Clinton's 41 pt edge in Monmouth IA is bc the frame is wayyy too narrow: *reg* D who vtd in last 2 primary. That's not a caucus electorate
I do think it shows how much Sanders is dependent on new voters actually turning out. He's not getting Obama '08 voters.
User 463088
Banned
I would cut off my own face for that to be accurate. It's not, but how I wish. It does reinforce Sanders problems with the Obama coalition.
A lot of the 18-29 bracket were not old enough to caucus in 08 so they certainly would be new voters. I wonder if Bernie can expand on the 22% that came out in 08?
This too. How much of Hillary's support is of Obama's coalition? Are the mid to late 20's with Bernie or Hillary now?
User 463088
Banned
He also lives or dies by the youth vote. It's a great strategy. Worked well for President McGovern and President Kerry.
Having doctors sign off on disabilities instead of Social Security Workers sounds great in theory, but it will be a complete shitstorm. Disability definitions are legal definitions and are frequently very different from medical diagnoses. Social Security personnel live and breathe that criteria while doctors...well, they frequently can't find shoes in a shoebox when it comes to social security.
I supposed they could also be changing the disability definitions to coincide more with ICD-10 or DSM-V, but that will also create a huge host of problems.
http://www.politico.com/story/2015/10/marco-rubio-jeb-bush-obama-215170
Apparently, it's a bad thing.
RustyNails
Member
I thought doctors already sign off for disability? I remember that NPR piece on this small town doctor that signed off on disability paperwork for almost the entire town population.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
The current mayor of Salt Lake City called Dillon Taylor being murdered by the police justified whereas the likely next mayor condemned it.
Bye, Becker. You did a lot of good, but your time is up.
Jeb! decides proposing that massive cuts to Medicare and SS are what his campaign needs:
http://www.politico.com/story/2015/10/jeb-bush-paul-ryan-medicare-overhaul-215186
Bye, Jeb!
Bye, Becker. You did a lot of good, but your time is up.
Jeb! decides proposing that massive cuts to Medicare and SS are what his campaign needs:
http://www.politico.com/story/2015/10/jeb-bush-paul-ryan-medicare-overhaul-215186
Bye, Jeb!
It's state by state.
In some they have nurses on staff that help the SSA officials. In some a doctor signs off. It varies.
Last I looked at one, (few years ago in TN) two sets of nurses signed off on the approval/denial by the SSA official though preliminary benefits can start before the final decision.
Sort of...I'm at work so I don't want to write a massive post, but here's the extremely simplified/reader's digest version:
Step 1: A person applies for SSDI and fills out a ton of paperwork. The applicant also submits doctors' reports, psychological reports, etc.
Step 2: Social Security worker reviews all the information. In some cases, SSDI starts if there is already sufficient information for the applicant to meet the disability condition criteria.
Step 3: More than likely, social security requests more information through evaluation. This may also be more paperwork for the physician to fill out.
Step 4: Social Security looks at all the final information and compares it to disability criteria, ultimately deciding if the applicant meets the criteria or not.
Based on the budget, it sounds like they are removing the social security worker's disability determination role. They will know longer act as gatekeepers. That isn't explicit in the HuffPo article, admittedly.
I also should have clarified that it has been close to 10 years (wow, time really does fly) since I did psych evals for social security. It might have changed substantially since then.
This was also in Texas. State rules do vary.
User 463088
Banned
I went with my bf to his doctor's appointment. They're showing Fox News. Pray for me.
They sound like Christmas has come early showing Carson ahead. Now they have one of the Duck Dynasty bumpkins on here. Cause he's a real political mastermind.
Oh god, this old man is telling all of us how Trump is going to save this country from and I quote "the queers, the Islams, and the Hismexicans." Save me liberal Jesus.
They sound like Christmas has come early showing Carson ahead. Now they have one of the Duck Dynasty bumpkins on here. Cause he's a real political mastermind.
Oh god, this old man is telling all of us how Trump is going to save this country from and I quote "the queers, the Islams, and the Hismexicans." Save me liberal Jesus.
Nate's whole shtick is that he is a data-driven fox and everyone else is a nonsense-driven hedgehog. He's killed that narrative by bandwagoning with the hedgehogs.
T
thepotatoman
Unconfirmed Member
Jeb! finally being himself.
Manmademan
Member
Trump does better the more exposure he has. I expect another rise after the next debate. Carson is going to get hit HARD tomorrow though. If he doesn't defend himself well I can see him declining.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Looking forward to this very, very much.
I like Krugman's take:
Gotta agree there. The approach he takes in his analysis is quite unscientific (luckily, still falsifiable). Nate formed a grande hedgehog hypothesis that Trump cannot win the nomination based soley on his favorability. All information is filtered through this claim and he selects reinforcing data. A real fox would go about it the other way - make a hypothesis and use data to attempt to disprove it.
Gotta agree there. The approach he takes in his analysis is quite unscientific (luckily, still falsifiable). Nate formed a grande hedgehog hypothesis that Trump cannot win the nomination based soley on his favorability. All information is filtered through this claim and he selects reinforcing data. A real fox would go about it the other way - make a hypothesis and use data to attempt to disprove it.
eh, I think Nate has been pretty transparent about the challenges he thinks Trump faces in getting the nomination and how/whether he would overcome them. I don't like their weekly Slack chats though, pretty pointless... much rather just read a coherent article with a sustained argument.
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
Didn't we just have a graph that showed Trump at his highest levels yet? 6 hours later, he's doomed?
Fresh round of polling with Carson leading nationally will do that.Didn't we just have a graph that showed Trump at his highest levels yet? 6 hours later, he's doomed?
SteveKornacki:
Now it's two Iowa polls with Hillary opening a giant lead in Iowa. Loras College:
Clinton 62%
Sanders 24
O'Malley 3
https://t.co/mhupPME3qj
...
Is this a Benghazi Bump?
Now it's two Iowa polls with Hillary opening a giant lead in Iowa. Loras College:
Clinton 62%
Sanders 24
O'Malley 3
https://t.co/mhupPME3qj
...
Is this a Benghazi Bump?
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
A single poll is a fresh round?
Yellowtail
Member
Wow. No wonder Bernie is going negative.
One big problem Bernie is going to have getting the youth vote out on caucus night that is being widely under-reported: the 2008 caucus was on January 3rd. Students had all gone home to regions all over Iowa, allowing Obama to pile up delegates all across the state (and he also had the organization to bus in Iowa students from surrounding states). The caucus this year is on February 1st - all the students will be back and located in only a handful of college counties. Whether he gets 5000 students or 50,000 students to caucus for him in Iowa City or Ames will have no effect on his delegate count, and he'll suffer in all the rural regions. If there was a DNC conspiracy, this is it.
This is after the first debate but before Benghazi.
Three is a .....................
User 463088
Banned
Bernie's tied with "Undecided" for 2nd choice.
That's two polls showing a huge Clinton shift.
Once is an instance, twice is a hobby.
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