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PoliGAF 2015 |OT2| Pls print

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R

Roland_Gunner

Member
BertramCooper said:
Cruz specifically needs to start forcefully going after Rubio. He has the debating chops to do it.
Click to expand...

I think Matt provides a solid explanation why Cruz isn't going after Rubio at this point. Its more important for him to solidify existing support than trying to take down someone who might become the establishment candidate. Once Rubio is strong enough that he's worth attacking then that changes.
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
Trump's not a very impressive debater, but there was one moment last week that should give his opponents pause: his attack on Kasich. It was clear that he'd done his homework.

I want to see that Trump go after Rubio at some point, in the same well-prepared manner.

Otherwise, I tend to question his strategy motives. He clearly wanted to knock Bush off-kilter early.. maybe this is due to strong dislike, but it's also probably in part due to Bush being positioned to be Trump's biggest rival. I'm waiting to see when Trump pulls back on Bush and redirects his focus.
 
M

Makai

Member
I looked up Prescott:

Edward Prescott and Finn Kydland Nobel prize for economics was based on two papers Prescott and Kydland wrote. In the first paper, written in 1977 "Rules Rather than Discretion: : The inconsistency of optimal planning" Prescott and Kydland argue that purpose and goals of economic planning and policy is to trigger a desired response from the economy. However, Prescott and Kydland realized that these sectors are made up of individuals, individuals who make assumptions and predictions about the future. As Prescott and Kydland stated “Even if there is a fixed and agreed upon social objective function and policy makers know the timing and magnitude of the effects of their actions... correct evaluation of the end-of-point position does not result in the social objective being maximized.” Prescott and Kyland were pointing out that agents in the economy already factor into their decision making the assumed response by policy makers to a given economic climate.
Click to expand...

This is basically rational expectations, which has been hugely influential. Nearly everyone in the retirement investment thread assumes some varation of it.
 
M

Makai

Member
thefro said:
Well, it happened with Edwards obviously in 2008.

I've heard from a couple really good sources that's a reason a certain popular Republican governor didn't run for President in 2012 (and it's not anyone running in 2016).

So it wouldn't be the most shocking thing to me.
Click to expand...
Please let it be Mitch Daniels.
 
B

BertramCooper

Banned
Roland_Gunner said:
I think Matt provides a solid explanation why Cruz isn't going after Rubio at this point. Its more important for him to solidify existing support than trying to take down someone who might become the establishment candidate. Once Rubio is strong enough that he's worth attacking then that changes.
Click to expand...

I think Rubio is almost there. I'd even argue that he might already be there.

Cruz seems to be a bit too choosy about seizing his moment of opportunity. I think he needs to start getting more forceful in attacking establishment candidates like Jeb! and Rubio in order to win over some of Trump's people. I'd imagine there are quite a lot of Trump supporters who aren't entirely sold on Trump's viability as an actual candidate, and they might be willing to switch over to Cruz if Cruz starts getting a bit more Trump-like on the campaign trail.

Basically, Cruz needs to start really going after Trump supporters, but do it indirectly by going after Rubio and Jeb! instead of going after Trump himself.
 
T

thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
Rubio saved himself on immigration by flip flopping, and voters tend to not care about flip flops as long as you flop to the popular side.
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
CS0UpyrUkAAmi7x.jpg

CS0VEziUcAA7zKt.jpg

CS0VsnXUcAEL3iX.jpg


https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...sberg-has-compiled-from-republican-campaigns/
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
BertramCooper said:
I don't think Tea Party lunatics are as forgiving as a typical voter, though.
Click to expand...
He is loathed by the fringe, to about the same extent as Jeb is. They see a guy who ran as "one of them" in 2010, only to stab them in the back. I'm waiting to see when the first campaign ad comes out that has pics of him and Chuck Schumer together.

If Trump bloodies Rubio up on this issue, I'd be happy. Rubio really can't please both sides in the debate on this issue, but mathematically he needs both sides to win the general.
 
B

Black Republican

Member
A new candidate surging into 3rd in NH in new Monmouth poll out at Noon. Also a significant gain in favorability for another R. Stand by
Click to expand...
hmm, Cruz or rubio? Kaisch was 3rd in NH in their last poll:

(28%) likely GOP primary voters in New Hampshire currently back Donald
Trump for the presidential nomination, with Ben Carson (17%) and John Kasich (11%) the only other
candidates registering double digit support. Following them are Ted Cruz (8%), Carly Fiorina (7%), Jeb
Bush (7%), Rand Paul (4%), and Marco Rubio (4%). Scott Walker and Chris Christie each earn 2%, and
Click to expand...


adam387 said:
The first one was "colored." The second one was the big, big no-no racial slur.
Click to expand...
African American? God i hate that word
 
C

Cheebo

Banned
HylianTom said:
He is loathed by the fringe, to about the same extent as Jeb is. They see a guy who ran as "one of them" in 2010, only to stab them in the back. I'm waiting to see when the first campaign ad comes out that has pics of him and Chuck Schumer together.
Click to expand...


Rubio is not one of them nor never was. He is the type who just will say what it takes to be elected. The tea party was his route to the nomination in 2010 so he said whatever they wanted to hear. Despite his tenure in the state house leadership being the puppet of Jeb Bush.

He was an adamant believer of global warming while in the State House in Florida and then magically became a global warming denier when he ran for the Senate for example.

That reminds me, the base turned on Jeb...yet no one seems to be throwing out the fact Rubio was Jeb's side-kick for years? Should be easy to tie him to Jeb, because he was tied to Jeb for so many years.
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
Makai said:
My favorite stipulations are using a gong for time and keeping the venue below 67 degrees.
Click to expand...
I want to see it hot. Let's see who sweats!

(And maybe a stage hook. And then re-air each debate later on, but with an MST3k-style riffing crew offering commentary/comedy.)
 
R

Retromelon

Member
thefro said:
Well, it happened with Edwards obviously in 2008.

I've heard from a couple really good sources that's a reason a certain popular Republican governor didn't run for President in 2012 (and it's not anyone running in 2016).

So it wouldn't be the most shocking thing to me.
Click to expand...
My republican governor knowledge base is unfortunately threadbare; the bing search inside my brain is turning up only one result and that is haley barbour (who has a racist remark in his wiki page that I cannot help but guffaw at the absurdity of)
During the campaign, the New York Times reported that a Barbour aide complained about "coons" at a campaign event. Barbour, embarrassed that the comment was overheard by a reporter, told the aide that he would be "reincarnated as a watermelon and placed at the mercy of blacks" if he continued making racist comments.
Click to expand...
Lmao holy shit
 
C

Cheebo

Banned
Man the Edwards Rubio comparison is dead on. Secret love children aside.

Both "young" who seem to want power for powers sake and attention. And willing to mold themselves into whatever type of candidate suits them best at a moment. And whose central appeal is youth at a very superficial level unlike how Obama utilized it.

Edwards bouncing between southern conservative dem and hardcore liberal. And Rubio's shift of being mr. establishment "moderate" Republican to Tea Party insurgent.

Lots parallels between the two.
 
P

pigeon

Banned
GnawtyDog said:
If the camps get away with all of this and the networks oblige then the DNC better take a look at doing the same.

Just saying...
Click to expand...

I mean, why bother? The Democratic debate went fine because the candidates aren't all completely insane.

More on this...

wapo said:
According to the sources in the room, [Jeb campaign manager Danny] Diaz did not say much. He did not chime in when other campaigns shot down the idea of splitting the debates into two randomly-selected contests of seven candidates each, and he did not interrupt as others agreed that Fox Business, the next debate host, could do as it liked. He spoke up only to say that a planned February debate with NBC News, the one "suspended" by the Republican National Committee, needed to be salvaged. The debate partner was supposed to be Telemundo, and Republicans could not stiff the only Spanish-language network allowed into the cycle.

Corey Lewandowski, Donald Trump's crewcut campaign manager, shot him down.

"If you do that," he said, "Trump walks."

"Diaz dropped his head, like he was defeated," an attendee said.
Click to expand...

So Trump isn't coincidentally targeting the Telemundo debate -- he's very deliberately targeting the Telemundo debate.

Also, the campaigns explicitly want to choose the moderators themselves.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...-mutiny-inside-the-gop/?tid=pm_politics_pop_b
 
B

Black Republican

Member
NH Monmouth poll
Marco Rubio is now in 3rd place in N.H. as support jumps to 13% from 4% in Sept, Monmouth University Poll finds.
Click to expand...

Donald Trump continues to lead, with backing of 26% of likely GOP primary voters in N.H.;
Ben Carson holds 2nd place with 16%
Rubio 13%
John Kasich, 11%
Ted Cruz, 9%
Jeb Bush, 7%
Carly Fiorina, 5%
Chris Christie, 5%
Rand Paul, 3%
No other candidate registers more than 1%
NOTE: All candidates except for Rubio had similar levels of support in Monmouth’s Sept. poll; changes w/in error margin
Click to expand...

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/t...upport-swells-in-n-h-as-trump-holds-lead-poll
 
M

Makai

Member
Retromelon said:
My republican governor knowledge base is unfortunately threadbare; the bing search inside my brain is turning up only one result and that is haley barbour (who has a racist remark in his wiki page that I cannot help but guffaw at the absurdity of)

Lmao holy shit
Click to expand...
WOW!
 
R

RustyNails

Member
Retromelon said:
My republican governor knowledge base is unfortunately threadbare; the bing search inside my brain is turning up only one result and that is haley barbour (who has a racist remark in his wiki page that I cannot help but guffaw at the absurdity of)

Lmao holy shit
Click to expand...
Lol what the fuck
 
U

User1608

Banned
Retromelon said:
My republican governor knowledge base is unfortunately threadbare; the bing search inside my brain is turning up only one result and that is haley barbour (who has a racist remark in his wiki page that I cannot help but guffaw at the absurdity of)

Lmao holy shit
Click to expand...
I don't know how to react to this. Wait what.

*edit*

As for Trump and Telemundo, continue doing your thing, friend. I'm going to enjoy next year as the bed he's made falls on him if and when he loses the general. A total coward.
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
Two hours, a dozen campaign managers, and a mutiny inside the GOP

According to the sources in the room, Diaz {of the Bush campaign} did not say much. He did not chime in when other campaigns shot down the idea of splitting the debates into two randomly-selected contests of seven candidates each, and he did not interrupt as others agreed that Fox Business, the next debate host, could do as it liked. He spoke up only to say that a planned February debate with NBC News, the one "suspended" by the Republican National Committee, needed to be salvaged. The debate partner was supposed to be Telemundo, and Republicans could not stiff the only Spanish-language network allowed into the cycle.

Corey Lewandowski, Donald Trump's crewcut campaign manager, shot him down.

"If you do that," he said, "Trump walks."

"Diaz dropped his head, like he was defeated," an attendee said.
Click to expand...

That bolded part: DAMN.

Yep, that GOP rebranding effort is going swimmingly.

I hope Telemundo mentions this.. :)
 
R

RustyNails

Member
Part of me thinks this whole boycott is a plan hatched by Trump-Carson-Rubio trying to avoid Telemundo. You know they will get ripped apart by the Telemundo anchors about all the horrible things they said regarding immigration, mexicans, etc.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Is there a state other than Iowa where Trump doesn't have a big lead at this point?

Add that to his ground game...he's in really good shape right now.
 
R

Roland_Gunner

Member
Rubio has to feel good about jumping up to 13% in NH but that GA poll is devastating. If he can't get any traction in the South / Appalachia it'll be very tough to get the nom outside of a brokered convention.
 
B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Plinko said:
Is there a state other than Iowa where Trump doesn't have a big lead at this point?

Add that to his ground game...he's in really good shape right now.
Click to expand...

Trump is leading pretty much everywhere but Iowa, but his ground game there will keep him competitive. At this point the nomination is his for the taking.
 
Y

Yellowtail

Member
B-Dubs said:
Trump is leading pretty much everywhere but Iowa, but his ground game there will keep him competitive. At this point the nomination is his for the taking.
Click to expand...
He's also behind Carson in Wisconsin and Michigan. It appears to be a Midwestern thing (contrary to Nate Silver's desperate spin that Trump's behind in Iowa because he receives more scrutiny there than anywhere else). He appears to be polling strongest in the Northeast, which must be terrifying for the RNC - winner-take-all blue states are meant to be the establishment firewall.

New Florida poll:

Trump 27%
Rubio 16%
Carson 15%
Cruz 12%
Bush 12%

Even in a Bush-less race, Trump leads Rubio 27-24 in his own state. And Bush remains in fourth in a Rubio-less race (28-17).
 
R

RDreamer

Member
Bam Bam Baklava said:
Rubio getting the exact same bump as Fiorina after that debate. I wonder if it will even last.
Click to expand...

Yeah, I don't think he's going to get it anymore. I'm pretty firmly Trump now.

If Rubio can't get a big bump after that performance I'm not sure he can ever. Trump's numbers are looking more solid as time goes by, and neither Trump nor Carson supporters really look like the sorts to jump ship to Rubio.
 
U

User 406

Banned
NeoXChaos said:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...sberg-has-compiled-from-republican-campaigns/
Click to expand...

I swear to god, halfway through reading that letter I had to double take and check the site URL because I was convinced I was reading a parody and the punchline would be that the networks would have to get on stage and debate each other with questions from the candidates so that the candidates could make an informed decision on which network to go with.

If only Edward R. Murrow would rise from his grave and tell the Republican candidates to eat his entire ass. But no, the networks will happily roll over for this shit, gotta get dem ratings.

God, I miss the Fairness Doctrine. :/
 
B

BertramCooper

Banned
RDreamer said:
Yeah, I don't think he's going to get it anymore. I'm pretty firmly Trump now.

If Rubio can't get a big bump after that performance I'm not sure he can ever. Trump's numbers are looking more solid as time goes by, and neither Trump nor Carson supporters really look like the sorts to jump ship to Rubio.
Click to expand...
That's why I think Cruz has the best chance out of the actual politicians left in the race.

He could theoretically pull from both Trump's and Carson's supporters.
 
R

RustyNails

Member
Sea Manky said:
I swear to god, halfway through reading that letter I had to double take and check the site URL because I was convinced I was reading a parody and the punchline would be that the networks would have to get on stage and debate each other with questions from the candidates so that the candidates could make an informed decision on which network to go with.

If only Edward R. Murrow would rise from his grave and tell the Republican candidates to eat his entire ass. But no, the networks will happily roll over for this shit, gotta get dem ratings.

God, I miss the Fairness Doctrine. :/
Click to expand...
I mentioned a week ago that I am hoping NBC says fuck off to RNC and airs a 2 hour special on Ed Murrow instead of the GOP debate. Now I want this more than anything.
 
O

Orbis Tabula

Member
BertramCooper said:
That's why I think Cruz has the best chance out of the actual politicians left in the race.

He could theoretically pull from both Trump's and Carson's supporters.
Click to expand...

Yeah, I'm really starting to lean towards him. I don't know if he's the most likely, but I think he's got a better chance than many people think. He could certainly be the bridge between Establishment and Tea Party much better than Rubio could.
 
K

kess

Member
RustyNails said:
I mentioned a week ago that I am hoping NBC says fuck off to RNC and airs a 2 hour special on Ed Murrow instead of the GOP debate. Now I want this more than anything.
Click to expand...

I'd seriously lel if the Hillary campaign offers to fill every cancelled GOP debate from here on out with a candidate infomercial
 
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