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PoliGAF 2015 |OT2| Pls print

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M

Makai

Member
HylianTom said:
He's on a whole different level.

At some point, he's going to point to every instance where he got his way in this process as somehow being credible evidence that he's a good negotiator.
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It is evidence. Jeb's "I can fix it" message is about how he can break gridlock in Washington. Well...there's somebody else that's particularly good at getting his way.
 
Y

Yellowtail

Member
HylianTom said:
He's on a whole different level.

At some point, he's going to point to every instance where he got his way in this process as somehow being credible evidence that he's a good negotiator.
Click to expand...
Breitbart commentators are already rapturously buying it.

I like this one:
Trump is the Golden Chalice the conservative movement has longed for for a generation. At first he might have seemed a strange angel for the mission, but not any more...
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B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Roland_Gunner said:
Hahahahahaha

Trump is the captain now

https://www.washingtonpost.com/poli...dec85e-8191-11e5-a7ca-6ab6ec20f839_story.html

Edit: This makes the theory that The Don mainly wanted to avoid a debate on Telemundo somewhat more believable.
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Fucking Trump, holy shit :lol

HylianTom said:
He's on a whole different level.

At some point, he's going to point to every instance where he got his way in this process as somehow being credible evidence that he's a good negotiator.
Click to expand...

He's already started doing that, remember his closing statement at the last debate?

Yellowtail said:
Breitbart commentators are already rapturously buying it.

I like this one:
Click to expand...

I fucking can't :lolololol
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
I remember back after 2012 I mentioned how the national GOP party was going to have a big fight within itself where it'll have to make a decision to reform or stop being relevant going forward.

I predicted this would happen around 2020.

I am starting to believe Trump is going to bring this about sooner than I had though. It's amazing.
 
I

ivysaur12

Banned
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/...n-iowa-clinton-back-out-to-dominant-lead.html

On the Democratic side in Iowa Hillary Clinton has really reestablished her dominance, getting 57% to 25% for Bernie Sanders, 7% for Martin O'Malley, and 1% for the now departed Lawrence Lessig. Clinton's seen a 15 point improvement in her net favorability rating over the last six weeks, from +42 at 65/23 in mid-September to now +57 at 74/17. Sanders has continued to become more popular too, going from 56/20 to 62/20.
Click to expand...
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Basileus777 said:
That's not exactly great news for Trump.
Click to expand...

This is actually the more appropriate data that will affect the race:

When you combine first and second choices Carson leads the way with 40% to 32% for Trump, 24% for Cruz, and 22% for Rubio.
Click to expand...

As someone else stated, it won't be one-on-one by that point.
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls 39s40 seconds ago
Groups Clinton's up particularly big with in Iowa- seniors (74% to 13%), women (61% to 21%):
Click to expand...

PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls 2m2 minutes ago
Groups Clinton's lead is smaller with in IA- younger voters (43/40), 'very liberal' (48/30), men (51/31):
Click to expand...

PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls 5m5 minutes ago Clinton's favorability with Iowa Democrats is up net 15 points from mid-September. 65/23 (+42) to 74/17 (+57):
Click to expand...

The Youth will not save sanders.
 
B

Basileus777

Member
B-Dubs said:
There's no way that enough people will drop out by Iowa for it to be a 1-on-1 race for the state. Everyone who can is going to hang on in the hopes they can pull out an upset and get some momentum going forward.
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Not by then, though I wonder how much Iowa shares that in common with other states where it could matter.

Manmademan said:
Given what we know about Trumps ground game and the caucus process, a "dead heat" with Carson is probably going to turn into a landslide victory for Trump on primary day.
Click to expand...

It would be a mistake to assume Carson's Evangelical base won't turn out.
 
R

RustyNails

Member
Christie's had an amazing transformation in his image over the last two and a half months. When we polled Iowa in August right after the first Republican debate, only 34% of Republicans in the state had a favorable opinion of him to 44% who held a negative one. Now 48% see him favorably to 28% with an unfavorable opinion of him, for an overall net 30 point gain. It's been quite a turn around.
Click to expand...
Christiementum
 
Y

Yellowtail

Member
More evidence Trump is running a smart, serious campaign:

Hoping to avoid the pratfalls of several 2012 GOP presidential candidates, 2016 Republican front-runner Donald Trump announced Monday that he has turned in 15,000 petition signatures in order to qualify for the Virginia presidential primary ballot.

“I greatly appreciate the incredible support we have received from the people in the state of Virginia,” Mr. Trump said in a statement. “We have tremendous crowds and enthusiasm and it will be a great honor to be on the ballot in this important state.

In the last presidential cycle, a federal judge denied a last-ditch bid from former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum, then-Texas Gov. Rick Perry and former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman Jr. to get on the state ballot after the candidates failed to turn in the required number of signatures.

Former Massachusetts Gov. and eventual 2012 GOP nominee Mitt Romney ended up defeating former Texas Rep. Ron Paul in a head-to-head matchup in the GOP primary in the state in March 2012. Mr. Romney got about 60 percent of the vote and Mr. Paul got approximately 40 percent.

Last time around, presidential candidates had been required to amass 10,000 signatures statewide, including 400 in each of the state’s 11 congressional districts.
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Virginia is notoriously hard to qualify for ballot access. Gingrich, Santorum, and Hunstman all failed last time. Jeb's campaign have said they're shifting their limited resources to ballot access. I think Trump is the first to successfully do the work needed to qualify for the state.
 
I

ivysaur12

Banned
omg omg omg omg omg omg omgomg

http://www.brproud.com/news/local-n...dwards-in-the-lead-according-to-new-wvla-poll

Democrat John Bel Edwards has a 20% lead over Senator David Vitter in the Louisiana Gubernatorial runoff, according to a survey released today by WVLA and JMC Analytics.

The brand new, statewide poll results confirm something that hasn't happened in 7 years: A Democratic Governor could take office in Louisiana.

Today, WVLA released a survey of 600 likely voters, conducted by JMC analytics. When asked who they’d vote for if the election were held today, 52% of people chose State Representative John Bel Edwards. 32% chose Senator David Vitter, and 16% were undecided.

These numbers are surprising because they show that Edwards, a Democrat, will pick up more votes from former Republican candidates Scott Angelle and Jay Dardenne than Vitter, a fellow Republican.

The WVLA poll also asked undecided voters if they had a preference between the two candidates. 54% of them leaned toward Edwards at this point, while 35% leaned toward Vitter.

Further questioning revealed that 24% of the people surveyed voted for a candidate besides Edwards or Vitter in the Gubernatorial Primary.

These results are significant for both candidates as they prepare for the WVLA Statewide televised debate, set for 6:00 p.m. on Monday, November 16, 2015.
Click to expand...
 
D

Daniel B·

Banned
adam387 said:
Let's also not pretend that Sanders isn't capable of poli-flip-flop speaking, either. In July, he did an interview with Couric and said that pot was a “gateway drug” that can lead to heroin and cocaine use." Now, three months later, he's for decriminalizing it. (And I don't fault him for having a change of heart. Intelligent people listen to facts, reality and can often change their opinion. Unless it's economic policy out of the 1960s......)
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I'm not sure he's ever been that far off tack, because in his early 2014 (3/14) Bill O'Reilly interview, when asked "Who shouldn't be in jail, somebody who sells heroin, somebody who sells crack?", he said, "Somebody who sells heroin, big time, somebody who's smoking a little marijuana should not be in jail". He also said "The war on drugs, in it's entirety, has been a loser. We have a whole lot of people in jaill, who should not be in jail". Right on :).

adam387 said:
He is a politician who is fortunate enough to live in a liberal state where his liberal positions don't require him to form deep coalitions with people who disagree with him, because, liberal Vermont typically does agree with him on most things. Interestingly, where he's been out of the mainstream on modern liberal thought (i.e. guns and immigration reform) it's because he claims he has to represent his state's (and in the case of immigration) unions interests. That's not a problem, but it shows that he's maybe not the fount of all that is liberal and pure. He's a good person, with some good ideas and some not so good ideas. Like when he voted to allow guns on Amtrak trains. Or voted against the Brady Bill the first, second, third, fourth and fifth time. Or when he worked to make sure nuclear waste didn't go to Vermont, but, instead, went to a poor, mostly Mexican-American area of rural Texas. So, there are times where he'll sell his liberal values for the benefit of his constituents. We just, to paraphrase the old joke, are simply haggling over the price.
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On the nuclear waste disposal issue (H.R. 629), that was for low-level waste, such as "medical gloves used in radiation treatments at hospitals" (source Politifact), and the final version of the bill had an equal number of Democrats and Republicans voting for it, including Joe Biden, in addition to Bernie. So, all in all, hardly seems a noteable fall from grace.

As much as some might try and say Bernie's "no better than the rest of them, so you might as well vote for the first women president", when just listening to Bernie for five minutes could convince one otherwise, they face a virtually impossible task.

I also hope that the American people become jaded over the numerous references to his Brady Bill votes, just as they have over Benghazi, especially when his positions are now largely in line with progressive realities.

adam387 said:
Now that he's trying to build a coalition of supporters, he (and his supporters) are going to find that you need a bit of pragmatism and concessions to win an election. Instead of just accepting that, though, some (Read: some not all) Sanders supporters start doing mental gymnastics of why he's not really changing his mind, or why he's always felt that way because reasons. There are two Bernie Sanders, the man and the myth. One of them will survive the primary, the other won't.
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I don't know; someone with Bernie's level of integrity and decades of tireless public service, is just the sort of person we should have leading our country, and if he is successful rallying the American people, to our common cause, we may once again lead the World "by example", and not merely by the wealth a few of us have accumulated.
 
I

ivysaur12

Banned
Taniel ‏@Taniel
Key finding: most Angelle & Dardenne voters supporting... Edwards! Can that possibly stay the case for 3 more weeks as GOP attacks Edwards?
Click to expand...

Taniel ‏@Taniel
just remarkable: 16% who are undecided say they're leaning for Edwards 54-35. If we allocated them, Edwards wld sit at 60%, his lead at 22%.
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da fuq
 
M

Manmademan

Member
Basileus777 said:
Not by then, though I wonder how much Iowa shares that in common with other states where it could matter.



It would be a mistake to assume Carson's Evangelical base won't turn out.
Click to expand...

Not what I'm referring to.

The caucus process means that campaign staff and volunteers have mandatory time to persuade the undecided with finely crafted arguments, speeches, whatever before anyone is allowed to cast a vote.

Trump has clearly prepared for this- he has a ton of boots on the ground in all 1800 precincts do this for him. He's one of the few that actually DOES have concrete policy positions, and even those who don't like him admit that he is the best equipped in the field to handle the economy...by a LOT. it's like 47% trump and everyone else in single digits.

Will Carson's evangelical supporters turn out? Sure they will. But are they equipped as well as Trump's team is to sway undecided voters at the polls? I wouldn't bet on it. Carson himself can barely articulate his way out of a paper bag, and has no coherent policy positions anyone can name. Evangelicals are reliable in terms of turnout, but they're not going to be convincing anyone but other evangelicals.
 
R

Retromelon

Member
Melkr_ said:
Hillary, ha Adele era is coming.

Bernie, ha Artpop era is coming too.

Heres my magypsy prophecy to PoliGAF: Clinton cant/wont defeat Trump.


One year from now this will be crystal clear. Dems all over the country will be running in panic asking themselves why they didnt give Sanders a chance. It will be far too late.
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what are you trying to say melkr? as much as i like applause, wasnt artpop lady gagas least successful album ever..
 
I

Ignatz Mouse

Banned
Melkr_ said:
Heres my magypsy prophecy to PoliGAF: Clinton cant/wont defeat Trump.
Click to expand...

Joke post?

Trump is going to do horribly in the election, when he's completely alienated the Hispanic vote and has fired up the Dems to vote against him in general.

If Hilary will be uninspiring to Democrats, then Trump is the antidote.
 
I

ivysaur12

Banned
By the way, that last LA Gov poll was from an R-leaning pollster.

Edwards has 41% of white voters. Vitter? 44%. Mary Landrieu got only 18% of white voters.
 
I

ivysaur12

Banned
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry...ony-kennedy_5637c481e4b0631799134b92?3muqh0k9

WASHINGTON -- When Supreme Court Justice Anthony Kennedy penned the 2010 Citizens United decision allowing corporations and unions to spend unlimited sums of money on elections, he did so with a promise that instant disclosure of election spending over the Internet would be enough to prevent corruption.

“With the advent of the Internet, prompt disclosure of expenditures can provide shareholders and citizens with the information needed to hold corporations and elected officials accountable for their positions and supporters,” Kennedy wrote in the decision.

The problem with Kennedy’s belief in instant online disclosure is that, at the time of his opinion, plenty of loopholes in campaign finance disclosure law already made it possible to cover up unlimited spending. Many opponents of Kennedy’s majority opinion noted this at the time.

Now, Kennedy has admitted that his belief in disclosure hasn’t turned out the way he thought it would.

In an interview with Harvard Law School dean Martha Minow last week, which can be viewed below, Kennedy defended his Citizens United ruling. “You live in this cyber age. A report can be done in 24 hours,” he said. But he also added that disclosure is “not working the way it should.”
Click to expand...
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
CS12N6ZXIAIhWo1.jpg


He getting crushed almost everywhere. Even in Shreveport.
 
H

Holmes

Member
Melkr_ said:
Hillary, ha Adele era is coming.

Bernie, ha Artpop era is coming too.

Heres my magypsy prophecy to PoliGAF: Clinton cant/wont defeat Trump.


One year from now this will be crystal clear. Dems all over the country will be running in panic asking themselves why they didnt give Sanders a chance. It will be far too late.
Click to expand...
Well at least Democrats would probably regain Congress in the midterms.
 
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