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PoliGAF 2015 |OT2| Pls print

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East Lake

Member
Trump is a "fair trader" now? I'm quite certain Trump gives no fucks about foreign workers rights, or the impact of offshoring and outsourcing.

But opposing trade deals does appeal well to people's base fears. Whether or not those fears are justified or not is another issue. Full disclosure, I've only read some analysis of the trade deal, not the actual 6000 pages. Because it's 6000 pages.

I'd say dramatis is right in that this is one of the issues (some others include vaccines, genetic engineering, nuclear power, immigration, financial systems) where people who are normally of the "rational left" can throw that rationality away for confirmation bias.
The "rational left" including some fairly mainstream economists like Jeff Sachs, Krugman, or Stiglitz mostly think this deal isn't about free trade as it is being described. Whether you believe him or not Trump says he likes free trade if it doesn't include protectionism for other countries. I'd say you're right he doesn't care about their workers.
 
Hmm, I didn't realize Bush won North Carolina and Virginia by 13 and 9 points back in 2004. I wonder if we'll see any huge swings towards blue or red in 2016 that no one could've expected back in 2012.
 
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http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/...omage-to-himself-in-pictures?CMP=share_btn_tw

K7ASFS3.jpg


"poverbs"

I missed that until I read the caption.
 
That Proverbs' quote pisses me off. They can capitalize the articles, but not the book of the Bible? Really?

OMG, I just noticed. Hahahaha.
 

User 406

Banned
Widom Wll Sae Yu Fom Th Wys Of Wickd Men, Frm Me Whoe Wods Ar Pervere, Wh Hav Let Te Straght Pahs To Wal In Dak Was, Who Deight I Doig Wong Ad Rejoce In Te Perveseess of Eil, Whse Pats Are Cooked Ad Wo Are Deious In Ther Was.

-- poverbs 1:12-15
 
The "rational left" including some fairly mainstream economists like Jeff Sachs, Krugman, or Stiglitz mostly think this deal isn't about free trade as it is being described. Whether you believe him or not Trump says he likes free trade if it doesn't include protectionism for other countries. I'd say you're right he doesn't care about their workers.
I'm not necessarily saying there aren't rational and/or empirical arguments against trade agreements. There are. This will ultimately have negative impacts on certain groups in certain countries.
But I'm referring to those with an unwillingness to accept that there are rational arguments for them. Or for a host of other leftist/liberal bugbears.

As for Trump, I don't really believe anything he says tbh.
 
Michigan is not going GOP in 2016 or 2020. It's a GOP pipe dream.

Pennsylvania will always be more competitive, but the big blue areas keep it relatively free from Pennsyltucky's influence.
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Michigan is not going GOP in 2016 or 2020. It's a GOP pipe dream.

Pennsylvania will always be more competitive, but the big blue areas keep it relatively free from Pennsyltucky's influence.

Not a pipe dream, and I vote democrat. It's a sea of red, and demographic changes since the economic recession benefit republicans. I hate to see it, but it will happen relatively soon.
 
Not a pipe dream, and I vote democrat. It's a sea of red, and demographic changes since the economic recession benefit republicans. I hate to see it, but it will happen relatively soon.

Overall Dem margins in Presidential years are not down enough to the point where Michigan could be said to be trending Red. I get the idea that the white, blue collar voters are always seen as ripe picking for the GOP. With the votes in and around Detroit, though, I don't see it feasible in 2016. They keep chasing Michigan, and I think it's a pipe dream right now.

However, there will come a time where there should be states moving towards the GOP. We're seeing Virginia, Colorado (which has always been purplish) and North Carolina getting more blue. The GOP has to make inroads somewhere. Michigan and Penn might be their best chance, but I still don't think it's a good one, especially in 2016.
 
So what? the GOP are known for spending other people's money for their own purposes and getting away with it.
Republican party money is donor money. Using money from donors to fund your personal trips and meals is definitely a violation of ethics. The fact that the party did not chose to pursue him is a different matter.
 
I made a post about it a few days ago, the Tampa Bay Times was reporting on it:

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=184157132&postcount=13540
"Those credit card statements are an internal party matter. I'm not going to release them," he told the editorial board of the Times-Union of Jacksonville in September 2010.

Attempts by reporters and Rubio's rivals to obtain them have fallen flat, leading to speculation about what they might contain.

He just released them
 
T

thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
So apparently Rubio charged $7000 in personal expenses to the Republican party between 2005 and 2008

While this would usually be big news, I'm sorry to report the circus tent is currently too full with a multitude of Carson acts to hold this news right now.
 
Not a pipe dream, and I vote democrat. It's a sea of red, and demographic changes since the economic recession benefit republicans. I hate to see it, but it will happen relatively soon.

There's a million more democrats than republicans in Pennsylvania. A straight million.

When Philadelphia bothers to pay attention republicans winning statewide ANYTHING is impossible, and Philly is growing.

It is not an accident that the democrats swept all statewide judicial elections by 200k votes in the same year as the Philly mayoral election.

PA is and will continue to be republican fools gold for anything that's not a local or off year election.
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
There's a million more democrats than republicans in Pennsylvania. A straight million.

When Philadelphia bothers to pay attention republicans winning statewide ANYTHING is impossible, and Philly is growing.

It is not an accident that the democrats swept all statewide judicial elections by 200k votes in the same year as the Philly mayoral election.

PA is and will continue to be republican fools gold for anything that's not a local or off year election.

I never was referring to Pennsylvania.
 
Gotta give Rubio's campaign credit for knowing when to release "bad" news. You got Carson being Carson. Trump being Trump. He knows how to use Take Out the Trash Day.
 

HylianTom

Banned
Overall Dem margins in Presidential years are not down enough to the point where Michigan could be said to be trending Red. I get the idea that the white, blue collar voters are always seen as ripe picking for the GOP. With the votes in and around Detroit, though, I don't see it feasible in 2016. They keep chasing Michigan, and I think it's a pipe dream right now.

However, there will come a time where there should be states moving towards the GOP. We're seeing Virginia, Colorado (which has always been purplish) and North Carolina getting more blue. The GOP has to make inroads somewhere. Michigan and Penn might be their best chance, but I still don't think it's a good one, especially in 2016.

It might be a cycle or two before Michigan begins to slip into 50-50 territory. I'm going to watch MSNBC's 2012 Election Night coverage tonight (since we're approximately 1 year away now), and I remember Michigan being called pretty early in the evening - not much suspense there.

At the very least, I don't see any of the Kerry States (246) going red. If he - a semi-flawed candidate - can win those in a relatively rough post-9/11 environment, with 2004 demographics, Hillary would have to fuck-up royally to lose them in 2016.

Well.. either she'd need to fuck-up, or the economy would need to start to deline - and soon. If we get to late summer next year and the economy is still going in an arguably/vaguely positive direction (not to be confused with an actual positive direction - a distinction frequently missed in OT economics threads), then time for the GOP to spin it as a negative runs out.

Then add Nevada and New Mexico (11). Those are likely gone.

13 electoral votes to go.. hmm.. 13.. :)
(fun thing: watching this coverage, the first gues is Senator Warner from Virginia.. talking about demographics)
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
No, but you've developed a very Diablos mentality. Terrified of Carson, Michigan gonna turn red, etc....

Meh. Never said I was "terrified" of Carson--just have stated that everyone on this board underestimates his chances and that he'd be a terrible president for the country.

As for Michigan, just track the demographics. A red turn is in national elections is coming. Probably 2020, but Michigan will be closer this time around than before.
 
It might be a cycle or two before Michigan begins to slip into 50-50 territory. I'm going to watch MSNBC's 2012 Election Night coverage tonight (since we're approximately 1 year away now), and I remember Michigan being called pretty early in the evening - not much suspense there.

At the very least, I don't see any of the Kerry States (246) going red. If he - a semi-flawed candidate - can win those in a relatively rough post-9/11 environment, with 2004 demographics, Hillary would have to fuck-up royally to lose them in 2016.

Well.. either she'd need to fuck-up, or the economy would need to start to deline - and soon. If we get to late summer next year and the economy is still going in an arguably/vaguely positive direction (not to be confused with an actual positive direction - a distinction frequently missed in OT economics threads), then time for the GOP to spin it as a negative runs out.

Then add Nevada and New Mexico (11). Those are likely gone.

13 electoral votes to go.. hmm.. 13.. :)
(fun thing: watching this coverage, the first gues is Senator Warner from Virginia.. talking about demographics)

I'm glad I'm not the only one who loves watching old election results. It's so much fun. I love to see a color coded map of where all the stupid people live. (Kidding). Its always funny to me to watch the really, really old ones. I love it. I really should have majored in politics, but comparative literature/creative writing is soooo much smarter.

I agree that 2004 is baseline Dem. Nevada and New Mexico are trending too far too fast for the GOP. There are just so many more paths for us to 270. The GOP has to run the board. It gives me some sense of security, even though I will straight up go panic mode next year.
 

dabig2

Member
GOP will need time to turn Michigan and time is not on their side. At least in their current form. Maybe if they evolve past 1950. Also, you can only rely on pissed off white people for so long and so much, especially when Obama is no longer the guy on the ticket.
 
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