• Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.

PoliGAF 2015 |OT2| Pls print

Status
Not open for further replies.
D

Diablos

Member
Cheebo said:
Holy shit, Cruz is skyrocketing in Iowa.
Click to expand...
He's just the flavor of the month.

I'm telling you, I can't see a better Outsider vs. Establishment fight than Trump vs. Rubio. I think that's where we are heading. Either Trump will reign victorious or he won't and then go third party (maybe -- and hopefully, for Hillary's sake)
 
Y

Yellowtail

Member
Diablos said:
Rubio is just the flavor of the month.

I'm telling you, I can't see a better Outsider vs. Establishment fight than Trump vs. Cruz. I think that's where we are heading. Either Trump will reign victorious or he won't and then go third party (maybe -- and hopefully, for Hillary's sake)
Click to expand...
FTFY.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
Diablos said:
He's just the flavor of the month.

I'm telling you, I can't see a better Outsider vs. Establishment fight than Trump vs. Rubio. I think that's where we are heading. Either Trump will reign victorious or he won't and then go third party (maybe -- and hopefully, for Hillary's sake)
Click to expand...

My worry about Third Party Trump is that it will actual be worse than it is better for the Democrats. The eventual Democratic nominee will win the presidential election by a landslide, but they were probably going to win anyway and the margin of the presidential election is irrelevant - you win, you win. Meanwhile, at a local level, lots of disaffected Trump supporters who weren't going to vote because establishment Rubio took the nomination are now turning up to vote for their man Trump - but at a local level, they'll vote Republican, as they normally do. That means you get all the enthused Rubio people and all the enthused Trump people when normally you'd only get one group. As a result, the Democrats get hit harder in things like the Senate races. I'd much rather a tigher presidential race if it means the House races are a stronger Democratic sweep.
 
Y

Yellowtail

Member
Cheebo said:
Cruz may be a senator but he is not establishment at all. The party hates him as much, if not even more so than Trump.
Click to expand...
They may not have a choice. If Rubio never catches fire (and despite the media's best efforts in trying to make Rubio happen all year he's only now surging from third to fourth) then they'll have to get behind Cruz to stop Trump.

I mean who knows at this point? But I don't see much evidence that Cruz is more flavor of the month than Rubio. He's the better politician, with the better campaign and he's more in tune with the current primary electorate.
 
D

Diablos

Member
Yellowtail said:
They may not have a choice. If Rubio never catches fire (and despite the media's best efforts in trying to make Rubio happen all year he's only now surging from third to fourth)
Click to expand...
It's November of 2015. Rubio has all the time in the world.

Six months from now no one will care about who the winners and losers were in November of 2015.
 
B

Bel Marduk

Banned
Yellowtail said:
They may not have a choice. If Rubio never catches fire (and despite the media's best efforts in trying to make Rubio happen all year he's only now surging from third to fourth) then they'll have to get behind Cruz to stop Trump.

I mean who knows at this point? But I don't see much evidence that Cruz is more flavor of the month than Rubio. He's the better politician, with the better campaign and he's more in tune with the current primary electorate.
Click to expand...

This is going to come down to Cruz and Trump.

Carson is fading fast.

Rubio is way overhyped and the clock is running out for him to have any surge.

Bush is just embarrassing himself at this point, time to drop out.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
Diablos said:
It's November of 2015. Rubio has all the time in the world.
Click to expand...

Well, no. He has until 1st March. Realistically, he has less time than that, because a poor performance in February will impact his March.
 
C

Cheebo

Banned
Yellowtail said:
They may not have a choice. If Rubio never catches fire (and despite the media's best efforts in trying to make Rubio happen all year he's only now surging from third to fourth)
Click to expand...

Third to fourth? He hasn't gone down in national polling or New Hampshire at all. He has been focused primarily on NH over Iowa.
 
R

RustyNails

Member
Diablos said:
He's just the flavor of the month.

I'm telling you, I can't see a better Outsider vs. Establishment fight than Trump vs. Rubio. I think that's where we are heading. Either Trump will reign victorious or he won't and then go third party (maybe -- and hopefully, for Hillary's sake)
Click to expand...
He's not even polling that well nation wide. He's just doing better in Iowa, most probably because of his shameless pandering to the religious right and that line about starting the day on knees.

But yeah he does have all the hallmarks of a flavor of the month joker.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
Cheebo said:
Third to fourth? He hasn't gone down in national polling or New Hampshire at all. He has been focused primarily on NH over Iowa.
Click to expand...

New Hampshire is going to be crazy if more campaigns haven't collapsed by then. The Republican New Hampshire primary will award delegates proportionally to everyone who clears a 10% threshold. The trouble is there are only two candidates who clear that threshhold according to most polling averages at the moment - Trump and Rubio - simply because with 15 candidates and one candidate taking ~30%, there's not many votes to go round! But even Rubio isn't in a great position, he's sitting on a 12.0 average. Give him a slight wobble and it is unlikely but not inconceivable Rubio could come out of New Hampshire delegateless (well, possibly get the superdelegates). Mind you, I think the GOP will put obscene pressure on all the failed establishment candidates to pull out before that happens. I definitely think by NH we'll be looking at four or five candidates tops.
 
T

thefro

Member
Crab said:
Well, no. He has until 1st March. Realistically, he has less time than that, because a poor performance in February will impact his March.
Click to expand...

With the holidays there's basically just 3 weeks of campaigning left this year and after that we're in the home stretch for Iowa/New Hampshire.
 
L

Lucky Forward

Member
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
Trump retweets impossibly racist "What about Black on Black crime?!?!" meme:

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/668520614697820160

CUcMHOIVEAA6Wm1.jpg
Click to expand...



Donald Trump Defends Racist Retweet: 'Am I Gonna Check Every Statistic?'

"I didn’t tweet, I retweeted somebody that was supposedly an expert and it was also a radio show," Trump said.

"Why do you want to be in that zone?" O'Reilly asked.

"Hey Bill. Bill. Am I gonna check every statistic?" Trump said. "I've got millions and millions of people, @realDonaldTrump by the way."

"You've got to, you're a presidential contender," O'Reilly said.

"This came out of radio shows and everything else," Trump repeated.

"Oh c'mon," said O'Reilly. "Radio shows?"

"All it was is a retweet, it wasn't from me, and it did," Trump persisted. "It came out of a radio show and other places because you see all the names."
Click to expand...

I mean, if he heard it on conservative radio it must be true.
 
V

Veritigo_X

Member
Diablos said:
He's just the flavor of the month.

I'm telling you, I can't see a better Outsider vs. Establishment fight than Trump vs. Rubio. I think that's where we are heading. Either Trump will reign victorious or he won't and then go third party (maybe -- and hopefully, for Hillary's sake)
Click to expand...

That's how I see it too. He's that same kind of candidate as Carson that really appeals to Iowa voters. I wouldn't be surprised if he won the caucus similar to Santorum in 2012.

As far as I'm concerned, a Cruz surge just adds to the current GOP clusterfuck.
 
R

RustyNails

Member
Man this Turkey shooting Russian plane can spiral out very, very quickly. I don't know what will come out of it but I'm afraid it wont be any good for our politics.
 
P

pigeon

Banned
Holy shit, what a fucked up night. Shooting at a BLM protest and Turkey shooting down a Russian warplane on the same evening.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
RustyNails said:
Man this Turkey shooting Russian plane can spiral out very, very quickly. I don't know what will come out of it but I'm afraid it wont be any good for our politics.
Click to expand...

Nothing? What's Russia going to do? The Russian military is already overstretched and the Russian economy is not in a good place. They're probably going to be slightly more obstinate in the Syrian negotiations just as a fuck you to Turkey and that's about it.

EDIT: Oh, and they're considering suspending packaged tour holidays to Turkey as a form of economic retaliation. WW3, here we come!
 
E

Ecotic

Member
Cruz has been a very slow burner, and is running a smart campaign. That's why he's not likely a flavor of the month, his rise has been the work of grinding it out quietly for months instead of being the product of a miraculous Hermain Cain like rise. He has money, is raising money, and is building inroads and getting endorsements from all the right people (like Steve King in Iowa). Rubio has better magnetism and that intangible star quality, but Cruz is better at running for President.
 
R

RustyNails

Member
Crab said:
Nothing? What's Russia going to do? The Russian military is already overstretched and the Russian economy is not in a good place. They're probably going to be slightly more obstinate in the Syrian negotiations just as a fuck you to Turkey and that's about it.
Click to expand...
Russian military is whatever Comrade Putin wants it to be. I'm not sure how Russian economy works but economy not being in a good place is the perfect reason to launch a large scale war and drive spending.
 
B

Butts-a-plenty

Banned
It's incredible how every always jumps from minor altercation to full blown WWIII on GAF. It shows a significant misunderstanding of how power politics and the international system even works. It also is blindly ignorant of what actually led to the first World Wars. I swear my generation wouldn't survive it if they were thrown into the Cold War period.
 
B

BertramCooper

Banned
At this point, it can pretty much be definitively concluded that Trump is a fascist, right?

I mean, he ticks off pretty much all of the major boxes I've seen in definitions of fascism.
 
V

Veritigo_X

Member
RustyNails said:
Man this Turkey shooting Russian plane can spiral out very, very quickly. I don't know what will come out of it but I'm afraid it wont be any good for our politics.
Click to expand...

It'll add to tensions for sure, but I don't think anything big will come from it that will end up affecting the politics here in the US. Putin will say something about Turkey and its allies, we'll all point worryingly at Putin, and then move back to focusing on the scary Muslims.

BertramCooper said:
At this point, it can pretty much be definitively concluded that Trump is a fascist, right?
Click to expand...

You tell me.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
RustyNails said:
Russian military is whatever Comrade Putin wants it to be. I'm not sure how Russian economy works but economy not being in a good place is the perfect reason to launch a large scale war and drive spending.
Click to expand...

Large scale war? Against a NATO member? Yeah, Russia's completely going to engage in a war it'd flat out lose. Putin builds himself as a strongman, but he's not an idiot or he wouldn't be in the position he is now. There will be a lot of shouting and finger-pointing and confrontation and then in a month or two everyone will forget. Meanwhile, Russia might do something like cancel trade deals or place tourism restrictions or some other total non-factor.
 
U

User1608

Banned
BertramCooper said:
At this point, it can pretty much be definitively concluded that Trump is a fascist, right?

I mean, he ticks off pretty much all of the major boxes I've seen in definitions of fascism.
Click to expand...
I would say so. It's been fascinating and absolutely terrifying seeing his campaign play out within the last 5 months. I no longer want him to win the nomination now, seeing as how the base is seemingly becoming bolder and more rabid. It's a damn shame and travesty. I really fear what could happen as a result of him losing next year should he be the nominee.
 
U

User 406

Banned
BertramCooper said:
At this point, it can pretty much be definitively concluded that Trump is a fascist, right?

I mean, he ticks off pretty much all of the major boxes I've seen in definitions of fascism.
Click to expand...

It's been pretty clear from the get-go. The greatness of the nation is held back because it's been stabbed in the back by ethnic minorities. It's textbook.
 
E

Ecotic

Member
Trump is a nativist, not a fascist. His ideology isn't consistent enough to be anything definitively, but the one thing he is consistent about is nativism. "America for real Americans" would be a fitting slogan.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Similar threads

  • Locked
PoliGAF 2017 |OT6| Made this thread during Harvey because the ratings would be higher
338 339 340 341 342
17K
2M
UselessNapkin replied
GAF Museum - The Greatest OTs of All Time (or at least, some of the great ones)
|OT|
4
2K
Komatsu replied
  • Locked
PoliGAF 2017 |OT5| The Man In the High Chair
395 396 397 398 399
20K
2M
RDreamer replied
  • Locked
PoliGAF 2017 |OT4| The leaks are coming from inside the white house
396 397 398 399 400
20K
2M
ShironRedshift replied
  • Locked
PoliGAF 2017 |OT3| 13 Treasons Why
393 394 395 396 397
20K
2M
Zaraki_Kenpachi replied
Top Bottom