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PoliGAF 2015 |OT2| Pls print
- Thread starter ivysaur12
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Edit: misread question.
Keep us updated. What's wrong with rational expectations?
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
The fuck? Did they have the same issue with the color warnings?
Retromelon
Member
I used to read the daily news...daily a couple of years ago. It was a decent paper that tended towards a center left output. It wasn't above the occasional sensational cover now and again.
It's literally a fucking New York tabloid. Yes they're center left, but they're still trash.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
I'm using Rational Expectations to refer to Robert Lucas's economic theories that assume people are extremely good at calculating expected future payoffs and fails badly to predict asset bubbles and financial crises.
The rational expectations assumption is good enough for many economic models though...
Retromelon
Member
I wouldn't call the paper that Bill Gallo worked at for 60 years since the end of world war 2 a fucking tabloid and trash.
Retromelon
Member
I'll concede the former. Why selectively edit out the latter.
Because the former was objectively and factually wrong. The latter is subjective (but I'm still right).
These days it's a tabloid. Some days it's not bad, but when it's bad it's really bad.
Retromelon
Member
I could post some things but realistically I probably won't convince someone with a hillary avatar. You'll just see some incendiary covers and proclaim a vacuum of worth. You were right about the format though.
The Post is the one that's uniformly garbage, the Daily News isn't always horrible though. They just tend toward sensationalism, and that's putting it mildly. This is the Daily News cover from today's issue (I took this picture this morning):
While I laughed, it's just that the News happened to tilt my way today.
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
This is the kind of thing you read in major news websites and it just makes you fill with anger. How stupid can you be to write something so painfully simplistic and wrong?
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
White Supremacists apparently just shot two BLM dudes protesting the Jamar Clark murder.
T
thepotatoman
Unconfirmed Member
Well, fuck.
I couldn't believe I had to find myself arguing with people on r/politics today that Trump supporting "roughing up" BLM protesters is bad. You're right that Trump's popularity is becoming downright terrifying, and I can only hope that this type of rhetoric dies down somehow very soon.
At one point I was sort of excited for the easy general election an insane republican nominee would bring, but at this point I'm ready to go back to dog whistle racism instead of this outright hate speech.
The Technomancer
card-carrying scientician
Oh no...
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
No video yet, we'll see if it's true or not probably by tomorrow though:
https://twitter.com/bikinginmpls/status/669016040198639617
https://twitter.com/bikinginmpls/status/669016040198639617
Retromelon
Member
It's true, police audio tweeted 4 minutes ago by the same person.
JesseEwiak
Member
The reactionaries never left, they just got put in the closet until the establishment couldn't keep them in anymore.
Again, this goes back to the cynical plan of the Right starting in the 60s and 70's - politicians and various other conservative thought leaders started selling bullshit they didn't believe to get the votes of the rubes, but forty years later, the problem is now the rubes believe the bullshit they've been sold and can't be told any different.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
Trump, Carson, and Cruz are creating a climate where I wouldn't be surprised to see terror attacks against Mosques in the coming months and I worry that more attacks like this on BLM will be coming.
Black Mamba
Member
Theory: Nate Silver hates Trump because if Trump wins the nomination, Hillary is going to blow him out of the water and he and everyone knows it.
In such a scenario, what value does Nate's website has? When the election is close, people go to his site to see what his model is saying, his current analysis, etc.
But if it's an obvious blowout, who is going to give a shit that he's going to write "lol blowout coming" for 4 months?
Trump winning the GOP nomination will be great for punditry politics but terrible for data-analytic politics.
And with what happened to Grantland, Silver must be feeling some heat. He needs to provide value to ESPN!
In such a scenario, what value does Nate's website has? When the election is close, people go to his site to see what his model is saying, his current analysis, etc.
But if it's an obvious blowout, who is going to give a shit that he's going to write "lol blowout coming" for 4 months?
Trump winning the GOP nomination will be great for punditry politics but terrible for data-analytic politics.
And with what happened to Grantland, Silver must be feeling some heat. He needs to provide value to ESPN!
You might be right.
Basileus777
Member
I kind of doubt this was on his mind when he first started railing against Trump back in July.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
Silver hates Trump because Trump is a disgusting human being, but that is clouding his analysis.
Abinash117
Member
Doubt it many people have different viewpoints. Many white Americans will see this as an individual thing and someone that is sick in the head, but nothing bigger than that. Minorities will see the opposite.
If anything it will be liberal, dem, and minority heavy criticism against Trump, Cruz, and the groups; maybe the establishment subtlety and privately being with the left to sabotage Cruz and Trump. Conservatives will just make excuses .
shinra-bansho
Member
Since we're throwing theories around, I'm going to say Silver is secretly in love with Trump but has trouble expressing his true feelings.
rocketknight
Member
Saturday night was incredible. The public ballroom with free food and booze was absolutely packed. I even rode in an elevator with E.W.E. to the Democratic Party party on the roof before moving on to a room party and a nearby bar.
Meanwhile, Vitter had his thing at the Hilton across the street from the airport in Kenner, lol.
Meanwhile, Vitter had his thing at the Hilton across the street from the airport in Kenner, lol.
T
thepotatoman
Unconfirmed Member
It's more likely that Nate is just your typical centrist journalist that doesn't want to have to admit how extreme a large part of the republican party has gotten thanks to the one upmanship of the republican media machine.
Not to say that the left isn't seeing the same clickbait temptations, which explains some of the "PC" outrage you hear so much about, but the extremism you see on the right is so much scarier.
Not to say that the left isn't seeing the same clickbait temptations, which explains some of the "PC" outrage you hear so much about, but the extremism you see on the right is so much scarier.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
Steve Beshear using executive action to restore voting rights of ex-felons, this is really exciting:
https://twitter.com/joesonka/status/668881220508454912
https://twitter.com/joesonka/status/668881220508454912
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
The Neo-Nazis were also /pol/ posters, christ 4chan has some vile fucking people on it.
That video is ridiculously nonchalant. I would have thought it was a parody.
"stay white"
Retromelon
Member
This new assault on blm folks is depressing shit. So i'm starting a new recurring segment called "poligaf posts from the past that make me laugh". its a mouthful but you can't say its a bad description. Here is one from our very own overseer, Y2Kev:
Emails running from Hillary as she tries to delete them
StopMakingSense
Member
wtf
Sorry to shatter your delusions?
In that context, tabloid is the paper size, as opposed to a larger broadsheet like the NYT and WP.
Sorry to throw some ice water on your zinger.
What's the point? Bevin's going to remove that shit the second he's sworn in.
And that paper size is associated with a particular style of journalism.
Sorry to throw... actually I'm not even going to bother.
StopMakingSense
Member
Right, but the wikipedia detail is explicitly a reference to the paper size only. Using it as a gotcha is super silly. There are plenty of regular newspapers in tabloid format.
Retromelon
Member
Heh.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
Lucas' most important contributions to economic theory assume rational expectations, but rational expectations is not his theory itself. It's a particular assumption used in a number of economic models which states that agents inside a model make perfect calculations using all available information deemed relevant by the model when making forecasts; therefore forecasts represent future equilibria of that model unless there was relevant information that was unavailable. You can then more easily solve the model for equilibrium because you've turned what was two separate variables (agent forecast and future equilibrium) into one, or one plus a random error term.
You can't really apply rational expectations to Trump; rational expectations would suggest that Rubio is the most likely candidate (given that agents are forecasting Rubio from perfect calculations using all of the currently available information), but that Trump could yet succeed given information shocks (e.g., something like the Paris attacks on U.S. soil right before the primaries). If you're arguing that Trump is actually more likely than Rubio and the markets have undervalued Trump on the basis of present information, you're arguing rational expectations is wrong (or at least, does not apply here).
#pedantry
So where's HylianTom's Jindal avatar?
Holy crap, you're right!
*breaks-out cordless drill, screw avatar into place*
Ta-daa!
It seems like distant memory now, but things were going pretty well earlier this year, with the Supreme Court decisions and all.
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