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PoliGAF 2015 |OT2| Pls print

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M

Maledict

Member
In a fascinating way, whoever wins the republican nomination from the top 4 contenders will be an upset in one form or another.

1) Trump - total outsider, insanely racist campaign, to the point where the GOP is openly plotting against him.

2) Carson - no ground network, no history of running for election, and one of the most bizarre (and worrying) characters to emerge onto the scene.

3) Crux - whilst he's running a smart, traditional campaign, he is also utterly loathed by the establishment. There are a lot of republicans who would rather Hilary won than Cruz. If he gets it, it will be the first time the establishment has been so clearly kicked in the teeth.

4) Rubio - establishment candidate, but not running a campaign in the normal sense at all. Primaries follow a very traditional method, and he's running his out of star bucks. No-ones ever managed that and got the nomination.


One way or the other, the traditional "rules" of the republican primary system have been broken. Heck, we already broke the "next in line" rule with Santorum and Huckabee doing so terribly.

EDIT: If I could change my vote, I'd bet on Cruz right now. He has been *so* smart about his campaign compared to everyone else. I'm also worried because he's a very good debater who can appear reasonable whilst spouting utter evil, and if the economy hits a downturn as people expect he's the last person I'd want as president.
 
U

User 406

Banned
Ecotic said:
Trump is a nativist, not a fascist. His ideology isn't consistent enough to be anything definitively, but the one thing he is consistent about is nativism. "America for real Americans" would be a fitting slogan.
Click to expand...

While fascism is often difficult to nail down, Trump ticks way too many boxes to avoid the classification. He has been consistent about promoting the myth of decline, racist scapegoating, calling for the necessity of abandoning fundamental liberties in the pursuit of weeding out troublemakers, invoking the myth of ultranationalist destiny, and so on. His lack of coherent policy isn't really a factor here, it's the approach he's taking that's fascist as all hell.
 
M

Makai

Member
Trump's ex-wife said he kept a collection of Hitler speeches by his bedside.

my_new_order_book_hitler.a.jpg
Click to expand...
 
P

Poodlestrike

Banned
Las7 said:
Considering how much Rubio works I'm surprised by his mid-tier standing - was expecting him to be bottom of the barrel.
Click to expand...

If you don't make any votes there's nothing they can hold against you.

Other than not making any votes, but for a Tea Party constituency that's not necessarily a bad thing.
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
And her Telemundo outreach continues.. Hillary is doing another appearance; this time it's some sort of Facebook Q&A:

http://hrc.io/telemundoQA

It's pretty clear at this point that her strategists think the Hispanic vote is going to be the ace up her sleeve in the general. This pattern where she regularly appears on Spanish-speaking media outlets is impressive in how it's been done so quietly, and I'm still shocked that no one on the right end of our spectrum, be it candidate or conservative news site or opinion blog (something Breitbart-y or Freeper-ish), has picked up on it yet.

ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
"Positive development"

https://twitter.com/cafedotcom/status/669139536216199172
Click to expand...
If he's the nominee, that's something you run early on so that you can define him negatively. The GOP decides to provide yet another gift.
 
S

SL128

Member
From the Atlantic
The Lifelong Republicans Who Love Bernie Sanders:
MacMillan, a 65-year-old Florida resident, was disappointed. “I looked at the stage and there was nobody out there who I really liked. It just seemed like a showcase for Trump and his ridiculous comments,” she recalled. “It was laughable, and scary, and a real turning point.”

So she decided to back Bernie Sanders, the self-described “Democratic socialist” challenging Hillary Clinton. MacMillan was a lifelong Republican voter until a few weeks ago when she switched her party affiliation to support the Vermont senator in the primary. It will be the first time she’s ever voted for a Democrat.
Click to expand...
“I have been a conservative Republican my entire life. But the Republican party as a whole has gotten so far out of touch with the American people,” says Bryan Brown, a 47-year-old Oregon resident. “I switched my registration so that I could vote for Sanders in the primary, but the day the primary is over I’m going to register as an Independent.”
Click to expand...
In some cases, longtime Republican voters who have decided to support Sanders, like MacMillan, are rethinking their political affiliation entirely. (“I’m inclined to say I might stay with the Democratic Party because the Republican Party has changed and it’s not the way it used to be,” MacMillan says.) Far from claiming to have experienced a political conversion, other Republicans argue that Sanders actually embodies conservative values.

“When I think of true conservative values I think of Teddy Roosevelt who earned a reputation as a trust-buster,” says Jeff DeFelice, a 38-year-old registered Republican voter living in Florida. “Now look at Bernie. He’s the only one willing to stand up to the big banks. The big banks control an obscene amount of wealth in this country and he wants to go after them.” If Sanders looks like “a viable candidate” by the time the primary rolls around, DeFelice says he’ll switch his party affiliation to vote for the senator.
Click to expand...
“Sanders has focused primarily on economic issues on which Americans are not divided,” says Elizabeth Coggins, a professor at Colorado College who studies American political psychology and ideological identification. “There is a strong consensus in agreement with Sanders on many of his core ideas, and his rhetoric has been largely centered on these sorts of issues.”
Click to expand...
“I’m not 100 percent behind his platform but I like him as a person. For me it really comes down to authenticity,” says Edwards. “We’ve seen so much deadlock in Congress and I think people are looking for someone who can be passionate and authentic rather than being partisan.”
Click to expand...

I'm not remotely sure of what to think about the Clueless Republicans for Bernie phenomenon as a whole, but I think it's probably important to pay attention to and examine further. Although the US likely doesn't have a large latent left when it comes to stated issues, it at least looks like there is leftist rhetoric with mainstream appeal that Democrats aren't even exploring.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
U

User 406

Banned
SL128 said:
From the Atlantic
The Lifelong Republicans Who Love Bernie Sanders:

I'm not remotely sure of what to think about the Clueless Republicans for Bernie phenomenon as a whole, but I think it's probably important to pay attention to and examine further. Although the US likely doesn't have a large latent left when it comes to stated issues, it at least looks like there is leftist rhetoric with mainstream appeal that Democrats aren't even exploring.
Click to expand...

Dixiecrats, dude. If they start deciding they care more about populist economic issues than the culture wars, they're right back in the D column.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
That goes back to what I was saying earlier about Trump being a worse opponent for Clinton than Rubio or Bush. Trump enthuses his base. I doubt Jeb can even enthuse himself.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
D

Daniel B·

Banned
Let's compare WJLA's (an ABC affiliate) coverage of Hillary's vs Bernie's presence in the Montgomery County Thanksgiving parade, in Silver Spring, Maryland.

First, Hillary's supporters demonstrate their steadfast support:

s7BmPNW.jpg


Now, according to the polls, Bernie should have like, just a few white, young guys, with one desperately sad guy and his bumper sticker:

AnpjfF1.jpg


Wait a minute! The ABC affiliate went to an advert, at the exact moment those guys showed up. Perhaps they thought the picture was so sad, they didn't want to upset their viewers?

Now, let's see who actually showed up for Bernie:

JbaFeoE.jpg


So Adam, what say you? I could do with a spare towel ;).
 
B

Butts-a-plenty

Banned
Plinko said:
Exactly. I've been saying this for months. Trump is nowhere near a pushover.

Also, LOL at more republicans wanting to show up for Trump than Carson.
Click to expand...

Well I interpreted the Trump number in an entirely different way. Nothing from what I can see indicates that the 75% of Republicans turning out to vote are all voting for Trump. If anything, I imagine there would be a significant number of moderate Republicans voting for Hillary in a potential matchup with Trump. Hence the larger turnout for the purpose of voting against him.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
Muzy72 said:
Trump also enthuses his enemies though. Hispanics will show up in droves to vote against Trump.
Click to expand...

Unlikely. Obama increased black turn-out by 4 percentage points. Trump isn't going to do more than that for Hispanics given people are more motivated to vote for rather than vote against. Even a full 4% increase in the Hispanic vote would make a remarkably small difference compared to a 2% increase in the vote of people who self-identify as Republican.
 
T

Teggy

Member
Plinko said:
Oh, it was the media's fault again. Who knew?
Click to expand...

This guy is such an idiot. The press guy literally follows up at the end just to make sure he understands and says, "in New Jersey?" and Carson says, "yes." So either he's lying or he doesn't even pay attention when people are talking to him and I don't know which is worse.
 
V

Veritigo_X

Member
Daniel B·;186636563 said:
I was about to post "if that sauce was any weaker, it would be tap water" comment, but GAF/Bernie stole the show (clickable advert below)!!!

Click to expand...

Hey, a clickable banner ad posted in a thread. That's a new one.

Las7 said:
I'm guessing it's more to do with the makeup of the BernieBro alliance, since they are supposed to be all white bros in their early 20s
Click to expand...

I thought that meme had more to do with the people arguing for Sanders on reddit and twitter. Obviously not all Sanders supporters are 20 year old white kids, he wouldn't be polling so high if that were the case.
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
Crab said:
That goes back to what I was saying earlier about Trump being a worse opponent for Clinton than Rubio or Bush. Trump enthuses his base. I doubt Jeb can even enthuse himself.
Click to expand...

Well, I've always argued Jeb! was the best opponent for Hillary in terms of winning. Of the realistic ones (Kasich and Fiorina aren't).

Surprised no Cruz in the poll.

Carson is there for now because a lot of people don't really know him. He'd drop down too.

Muzy72 said:
Trump also enthuses his enemies though. Hispanics will show up in droves to vote against Trump.
Click to expand...

And it needs to be noted there are more Dems thanRepublicans so a 3 percentage points jump for Dems is bigger overall than 4% for GOP. Impossible to know who those Indies are (for GOPers or moderates).


On a different topic, I saw Seth meyers show last night and Palin was on it. In the show Meyers asked what's the deal with the governors hating the Syrian Refugees so which she replied, no joke:

"Well the federal government doesn't have a vetting process for them so the states just want to make sure these people are safe."

Meyers, to his credit, actually corrected her saying that's not true that it takes 18-24 months to get in because of an extensive vetting process.

Her reply to that was like

"well, we can't trust the federal government's vetting. We don't even know what the process is!"

I could see it in Meyers face...he wanted to call her a buffoon or a liar or some combo. I feel bad his producers make him interview a no hack like her. I could see his soul draining out of his body.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Inebriated said:
Well I interpreted the Trump number in an entirely different way. Nothing from what I can see indicates that the 75% of Republicans turning out to vote are all voting for Trump. If anything, I imagine there would be a significant number of moderate Republicans voting for Hillary in a potential matchup with Trump. Hence the larger turnout for the purpose of voting against him.
Click to expand...

:lol :lol :lol

Not happening.
 
F

Fenderputty

Banned
Crab said:
My worry about Third Party Trump is that it will actual be worse than it is better for the Democrats. The eventual Democratic nominee will win the presidential election by a landslide, but they were probably going to win anyway and the margin of the presidential election is irrelevant - you win, you win. Meanwhile, at a local level, lots of disaffected Trump supporters who weren't going to vote because establishment Rubio took the nomination are now turning up to vote for their man Trump - but at a local level, they'll vote Republican, as they normally do. That means you get all the enthused Rubio people and all the enthused Trump people when normally you'd only get one group. As a result, the Democrats get hit harder in things like the Senate races. I'd much rather a tigher presidential race if it means the House races are a stronger Democratic sweep.
Click to expand...

This is an interesting point about a possible 3rd party run that I had not considered. I think I agree. Though my nerves will be better on election night if he does do a 3rd party.

Ecotic said:
Trump is a nativist, not a fascist. His ideology isn't consistent enough to be anything definitively, but the one thing he is consistent about is nativism. "America for real Americans" would be a fitting slogan.
Click to expand...

Nationalism is a major part of fascism though. How he accomplishes his nationalist policy is what makes him a fascist. IE ... in an authoritarian way.
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
Plinko said:
:lol :lol :lol

Not happening.
Click to expand...

uh, I actually think that's true. I actually know a couple typical Republican voters that have said they're voting Hillary if it's Trump. A lot of non-Southern republicans aren't as far right. A significant amount of these people are generally better off and vote for their taxes but really don't like what Trump says. Especially in places like Cali when he talks about immigrants since our economy kind of needs them.

I also have cousin who would vote Republican normally because the GOP is stronger on foreign policy (lol I know it's wrong but whatever) and refuses to vote Trump.

I'm not arguing it outdoes those that are enthused to vote for him. And while I'm speaking anecdotally, those people most certainly do exist. There are definitely moderate republicans who are scared of Trump.


Fenderputty said:
This is an interesting point about a possible 3rd party run that I had not considered. I think I agree. Though my nerves will be better on election night if he does do a 3rd party.
Click to expand...

In terms of ideal, Hillary defeating Cruz would be the best option. Destroy the Tea Party and "not right enough!" crap.

Second is Trump. They'll still argue at the end he was a clown and said too many hateful things.

Then Rubio (too establishment which is also wrong)

Then Jeb! because he is too in the middle/establishment for them and gives the base every excuse in the book to use.
 
M

Maledict

Member
Plinko said:
:lol :lol :lol

Not happening.
Click to expand...

Moderate republican women?

Absolutely. You can bet on it, especially if the nominee is Trump. Clinton's *always* had the potential to up her % of the republican vote by taking republican women votes. run her against a racist misogynist and we'll see a greater cross over vote than Obama got in 2008 I would expect.
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
460x.jpg


http://bigstory.ap.org/article/3e94...eck-most-gop-candidates-flunk-climate-science

Two used similar reasoning to skip grading New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and one did the same for businesswoman Carly Fiorina. Republican Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas had the lowest score, an average of 6. All eight put Cruz at the bottom of the class.

"This individual understands less about science (and climate change) than the average kindergartner," Michael Mann, a Pennsylvania State University meteorology professor, wrote of Cruz's statements. "That sort of ignorance would be dangerous in a doorman, let alone a president."
Click to expand...
 
T

The Technomancer

card-carrying scientician
"This individual understands less about science (and climate change) than the average kindergartner," Michael Mann, a Pennsylvania State University meteorology professor, wrote of Cruz's statements. "That sort of ignorance would be dangerous in a doorman, let alone a president."
Click to expand...
This quote is amazing
 
A

Abinash117

Member
It is surprising that despite all the efforts by Bernie to get minorities he still doing very poorly in terms of the polls.

If he can't get the support soon; he is not going to get the support at all.
 
B

Butts-a-plenty

Banned
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
460x.jpg


http://bigstory.ap.org/article/3e94...eck-most-gop-candidates-flunk-climate-science
Click to expand...

Berning isn't good for the environment.

Abinash117 said:
It is surprising that despite all the efforts by Bernie to get minorities he still doing very poorly in terms of the polls.

If he can't do it soon; he is not going to get the support at all.
Click to expand...

Electability is a huge deal for minority groups when deciding who they'll back because shitty social policy disproportionately affects them over white people. Bernie needs to win a primary or two or three before he has any chance of getting support in any real way.
 
C

Cerium

Member
Inebriated said:
Electability is a huge deal for minority groups when deciding who they'll back because shitty social policy disproportionately affects them over white people. Bernie needs to win a primary or two or three before he has any chance of getting support in any real way.
Click to expand...

Even in 2008 Hillary was winning the black vote by a large margin all the way up until Iowa. When Obama proved that he could actually dominate a lily white rural state, that's when minorities began breaking his way.
 
D

Daniel B·

Banned
On the eve of Star Wars: Episode VII The Force Awakens, Bernie reminds me of that Darth Vader quote “The Force is [too] strong with this one” (and no, Lucas, we're not talking about Midi-chlorians!).

You know, Bernie has said that his first Presidential Pardon would be for George Lucas, if he wholeheartedly endorses the release of his masterworks, the original Star Wars saga (IV - VI), lovingly restored, in glorious Hi-Def, with absolutely no additions or alterations (yes, I'm kidding, but "we can live in hope").
 
F

Fenderputty

Banned
Black Mamba said:
In terms of ideal, Hillary defeating Cruz would be the best option. Destroy the Tea Party and "not right enough!" crap.

Second is Trump. They'll still argue at the end he was a clown and said too many hateful things.

Then Rubio (too establishment which is also wrong)

Then Jeb! because he is too in the middle/establishment for them and gives the base every excuse in the book to use.
Click to expand...

Hillary vs. Cruz would be better for my election night nerves than Hillary vs. Rubio. I think it's suspect that the rhetoric about not being right enough would die down anyway. Rush and the right wing media make money off this frothing base. They'll just handwave a loss away as lack of enthusiasm or some shit. America further sliding into the abyss etc etc.
 
T

theprodigy

Member
Cerium said:
Even in 2008 Hillary was winning the black vote by a large margin all the way up until Iowa. When Obama proved that he could actually dominate a lily white rural state, that's when minorities began breaking his way.
Click to expand...

No, I'm fairly sure Obama had the black vote earlier than that, for example while Iowa obviously doesn't have a lot of black people he got 72% of them in the caucus, and I remember 538 saying a while ago that Obama already had 50% in the same timeframe (in a 3 way race too).

also, Hispanics never did break towards Obama
 
B

BertramCooper

Banned
Daniel B·;186648023 said:
On the eve of Star Wars: Episode VII The Force Awakens, Bernie reminds me of that Darth Vader quote “The Force is [too] strong with this one” (and no, Lucas, we're not talking about Midi-chlorians!).

You know, Bernie has said that his first Presidential Pardon would be for George Lucas, if he wholeheartedly endorses the release of his masterworks, the original Star Wars saga (IV - VI), lovingly restored, in glorious Hi-Def, with absolutely no additions or alterations (yes, I'm kidding, but "we can live in hope").
Click to expand...

5m4s2gF.gif
 
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