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PoliGAF 2015 |OT2| Pls print

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benjipwns

Banned
I think the question we have to ask now is whether Hillary will even make it to the first debate. Will they allow her to debate from prison? Or show up in a orange jumpsuit and cuffs?

Do states that don't let them vote allow convicted felons on the ballot?
 

NeoXChaos

Member
http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2015/09/14/hillary-clintons-e-mail-issues-have-grown-into-a-massive-political-problem/

Into this atmosphere land two major news stories about the server: The first, first reported by the Washington Post, is that the tech company that handled Clinton's server says there is no evidence that it has been "wiped." That's a good and a bad thing for Clinton, since it suggests a lack of a cover-up (or what could be made to look like a cover-up) but also that, potentially, her deleted e-mails could be recovered and mined for anything that could disprove Clinton's version of events. The second story is that the Justice Department said Clinton was well within her rights as a government official to make her own determination on which e-mails on her server could be deleted as personal and non-relevant to her work as the nation's top diplomat.
Exoneration, shout her defenders! Much ado about nothing! A media-created story is debunked!

Except, not really. The fact that she had the ability and right to delete e-mails was never really in question. At issue is the process by which she did it -- and who got to make the final calls on what got sent to the State Department and what didn't. Yes, the way Clinton went about it was within her rights. But Clinton is not just any government official or even any secretary of state. She is someone who is -- still -- the heavy favorite to be the Democratic nominee for president in 2016. As such, she is held to a different standard than someone who, well, isn't the heavy favorite to be the Democratic nominee for president.

And, remember, Clinton deleted more total e-mails than she turned over to State.
 

HylianTom

Banned
TrumpVsRubioAmnesty.jpg


This is the second Trump tweet against Rubio in 24 hours. Rubio isn't just on his radar.. he's seeming more and more like target #1.

I hope he wrecks Rubio's rep among primary voters like he did Walker's.
 
Jeb posted an op-ed about how he'll roll back the regulatory state:

http://www.wsj.com/articles/how-ill-slash-the-regulation-tax-1442961807

To understand what is wrong with the regulatory culture of the U.S. under President Obama, consider this alarming statistic: Today, according to the World Bank—not exactly a right-wing think tank—the U.S. ranks 46th in the world in terms of ease of starting a business. That is unacceptable.

Think what the U.S. could be and the prosperity we could have if we rolled back the overregulation that keeps us from ranking in the top 10. It wouldn’t just be easier to start a business. It would also be easier to find a job, get lifesaving medicine, get a loan, and see a doctor or health professional. Costs and prices would go down. The U.S. economy, stalled in the worst economic expansion since World War II, would be unleashed. Regulatory reform alone could add more than three percentage points to U.S. GDP by 2025.

Since January 2009, the Obama administration has mired America’s free market in a flood of creativity-crushing and job-killing rules. This administration has issued rules targeting banks, farms, medical offices, hospitals, credit unions, insurers, tanning and nail salons, power plants, factories, federal contractors, cars, trucks and appliances. And in perhaps its most shocking display of regulatory overreach, it is regulating the Internet as a public utility, using a statute written in the 1930s.

If you’re wondering why it’s hard to get a mortgage, why no new banks are opening up, why your power bill will be going up, why your health insurance costs more, why we don’t build new highways, why you can’t get medicines that are available in Europe, Barack Obama’s rules are a big part of the story.

These rules create a moat around America’s wealthiest and well-connected. They can afford to comply and absorb the costs. The burden of meeting the new rules’ requirements falls heaviest on everyone else through higher prices. And if a business can’t pass on the cost of new rules to consumers, it just cuts wages or jobs.

The increased cost of new regulations, in time and money, has been phenomenal. According to the American Action Forum, since Mr. Obama took office, new regulations have resulted in an additional 443 million hours of paperwork each year for Americans. All told, according to the Competitive Enterprise Institute’s 2015 report on the federal regulatory state, regulations impose a $1.88 trillion silent tax on the U.S. economy each year—that’s nearly $15,000 per family. For every second of his presidency, Mr. Obama has added roughly $3,100 in regulatory burdens to the economy.

It’s time we did a better job regulating the regulators. My goal as president would be to find and retire the rules that are posing a major obstacle to people who want to get a job, start a business, move up the income ladder or do anything else that contributes to the prosperity of this nation. If elected president, I will use my executive authority to direct agencies to create one dollar of regulatory savings for each new dollar of regulatory cost they propose. We will eliminate and reform outdated and burdensome rules and, when necessary, work with Congress and the courts to overcome legal obstacles that stand in the way of sensible savings.

My administration will create a commission charged with reviewing regulations from the perspective of the regulated and shifting more power from Congress back to states. In my administration, every regulation, including those issued by so-called independent agencies such as the Consumer Finance Protection Bureau, will have to satisfy a rigorous White House review process, including a cost-benefit analysis. Regulations will be issued only if they address a major market or policy failure. Regulators will be directed to favor private and state-driven solutions unless it is clear that federal intervention is necessary and appropriate.

My administration will also supercharge infrastructure projects by restructuring the permitting process for roads, highways, bridges, ports, pipelines, wind farms and other vital infrastructure projects. Permitting decisions will be made within two years instead of 10. And I will sign legislation to prevent frivolous litigation from endlessly tying up federal infrastructure projects in court.

As early as possible, I promise to roll back many of the most reckless and damaging rules promulgated under President Obama. As president, I will repeal the Environment Protection Agency’s new rule extending federal jurisdiction under the Clean Water Act over millions of acres of private land, its new regulation of carbon dioxide under the Clean Power Plan, and its new and costly coal-ash standards for power plants. I will also work to repeal the so-called net-neutrality rule forced on the Federal Communications Commission by the White House and the Department of Education’s “gainful employment” rule that punishes for-profit colleges. That’s for starters.

I will also work with Congress to repeal significant portions of the 2010 Dodd-Frank financial law, and we will reform the complex set of rules that perpetuate too-big-to-fail financial institutions. Later this fall, I will announce a detailed agenda to repeal and replace ObamaCare.

Regulation feeds into Washington’s revolving-door culture. Regulators spend years writing complex rules, then leave for the private sector to sell their inside knowledge to the highest bidder—usually a big, well-entrenched company. No wonder so many Americans are cynical about who Washington really works for.

Most important, as president, I will be guided by the faith that we are a nation of free men and women who are capable of achieving far more than liberals and regulators believe possible. Once we remove the burdens of overregulation, America will once again reclaim its reputation for inventiveness, energy and boundless opportunity.

Mr. Bush, a former governor of Florida, is a candidate for the Republican presidential nomination.
 
Jeb posted an op-ed about how he'll roll back the regulatory state:

http://www.wsj.com/articles/how-ill-slash-the-regulation-tax-1442961807
. A
nd in perhaps its most shocking display of regulatory overreach, it is regulating the Internet as a public utility, using a statute written in the 1930s.

God this stupid line annoys me to know end. It's so old!

Glad to see your going to abandon your desire to the rule of 200+ old law called the constitution.
 

Gotchaye

Member

NeoXChaos

Member
The scandal is a non-scandal.

As I have a free WSJ subscription, I read far too many of their op-eds.

It's always a bunch of shit about how "We now know that when Clinton said X on Y date, she was factually inaccurate. Her narrative is crumbling before our eyes."

Extra points if they include "Petraeus was indicted for less."

The whole case is a house of toothpicks that amounts to jack shit even under the most charitable assumptions. It's more about keeping her name in the media while associating her with some vague "scandal" that no one can really explain and that doesn't even make any sense unless you start with the assumption that Hillary Clinton is at the center of a vast criminal enterprise, and this email story is only the first domino to fall.

Which is exactly what the media thinks and a narrative they want to portray.
 
If we're really 46th in the world in ease of starting a business, that suggests there may be room to eliminate some red-tape. I wouldn't mind that.

I wish he wouldn't go the idiot route of tying net neutrality into this.

Probably less than 10% of people who are going to read that column even knew what net neutrality was until the Greater Fox media apparatus told them what their opinion of it should be.
 

Diablos

Member
TrumpVsRubioAmnesty.jpg


This is the second Trump tweet against Rubio in 24 hours. Rubio isn't just on his radar.. he's seeming more and more like target #1.

I hope he wrecks Rubio's rep among primary voters like he did Walker's.
Trump and his team are fucking on the ball. I give credit where it's due. They are right on time with figuring out the winners and losers of the day/week, and it shows.
 

User1608

Banned
TrumpVsRubioAmnesty.jpg


This is the second Trump tweet against Rubio in 24 hours. Rubio isn't just on his radar.. he's seeming more and more like target #1.

I hope he wrecks Rubio's rep among primary voters like he did Walker's.
Hah! I knew Rubio was a potentially viable candidate; Trump is going to try to bury him as a result. I've aways believed that Rubio was a possibly competitive nominee, and still do, especially if Jeb completely throws it all away (in the primaries).
 
TrumpVsRubioAmnesty.jpg


This is the second Trump tweet against Rubio in 24 hours. Rubio isn't just on his radar.. he's seeming more and more like target #1.

I hope he wrecks Rubio's rep among primary voters like he did Walker's.

Trump is flailing all over the place right now. In the last 24 hours he's hit Fiorina, Rubio, almost every Fox News anchor, Club For Growth, etc. Between Fox News, CFG, and Walkers exit speech yesterday, the "destroy Trump" movement is back in full effect. They are basically daring him to go third party.

Also, Trump second tweet is because Rubio hit back at Trump. Trump likes to dish it out, but if anybody gives it back he goes on a twitter rampage.
 

HylianTom

Banned
Hah! I knew Rubio was a potentially viable candidate; Trump is going to try to bury him as a result. I've aways believed that Rubio was a potentially competitive nominee, and still do, especially if Jeb completely throws it all away.

If anyone can cripple Rubio.. I think Trump can do it.

If I'm wearing his strategy hat, I see the upcoming shutdown conflict as an opportunity to issue a broadside attack against a number of establishment/insider candidates. The base is going to be royally pissed when they find that Planned Parenthood's funding is still intact when this fight is over; the timing is going to be perfect for Trump to use this fight (along with the fight over Boehner's speakership) to pin-down his prominent Congressional candidates. He'll tar them as "lapdogs of the Chamber of Commerce" (or somesuch other epithet), and the base will be more than receptive.

Rubio would be the perfect foil in this instance, especially if the media or Trump baits him into taking a stance on the shutdown.

Meanwhile - quite conveniently - his buddy Cruz sails along unscathed. Hmm.
 

benjipwns

Banned
Hey guys there's some talk about the morality of non-aggression and corporate state violence going on in another thread, I'll quote from the relevant posts h....hey! Stop hitting me!
 
Trump and his team are fucking on the ball. I give credit where it's due. They are right on time with figuring out the winners and losers of the day/week, and it shows.
I called this before the debate was up I think. He's almost a week behind internet fourm posters!
 
Hah! I knew Rubio was a potentially viable candidate; Trump is going to try to bury him as a result. I've aways believed that Rubio was a possibly competitive nominee, and still do, especially if Jeb completely throws it all away (in the primaries).

Rubio/Kasich, in whichever order, would frighten me going into the general. Kasich in front with Rubio as the VP would terrify me.
 

User1608

Banned
If anyone can cripple Rubio.. I think Trump can do it.

If I'm wearing his strategy hat, I see the upcoming shutdown conflict as an opportunity to issue a broadside attack against a number of establishment/insider candidates. The base is going to be royally pissed when they find that Planned Parenthood's funding is still intact when this fight is over; the timing is going to be perfect for Trump to use this fight (along with the fight over Boehner's speakership) to pin-down his prominent Congressional candidates. He'll tar them as "lapdogs of the Chamber of Commerce" (or somesuch other epithet), and the base will be more than receptive.

Rubio would be the perfect foil in this instance, especially if the media or Trump baits him into taking a stance on the shutdown.

Meanwhile - quite conveniently - his buddy Cruz sails along unscathed. Hmm.
It's going to be really interesting, these next few weeks. And yeah, a while ago, I began to realize Cruz was trying to cozy up to Trump. Maybe he wants to be his running mate if Trump is the nominee? That would certainly be quite the ticket.
 

NeoXChaos

Member
What makes Rubio/Kasich or Kasich/Rubio so terrifying? What happened to demographic advantages we tout here in PoliGAF being a sort of "trump" card for the Democrats? "Republicans have no chance" etc
 

Diablos

Member
What makes Rubio/Kasich or Kasich/Rubio so terrifying? What happened to demographic advantages we tout here in PoliGAF being a sort of "trump" card for the Democrats?
Democrats suck at campaigning circa 2014 happened.

Rubio/Kasich would be formidable in the GE
 
What makes Rubio/Kasich or Kasich/Rubio so terrifying? What happened to demographic advantages we tout here in PoliGAF being a sort of "trump" card for the Democrats? "Republicans have no chance"
Cutting into, just enough, those advantages and prevention other defections from the GOP leaning camp.

The GOP only needs to cut into a bit the dems advantage. The old white vote isn't going anywhere.
 
You're wrong NYCmetsfan. Romney was planning on running to Bush's right on immigration, as was Cruz. Walker flip flopped on immigration specifically to take a hardline position. Would the language be as ugly without Trump? No. But the policies would ultimately be the same. Build a wall, no amnesty, nothing for DREAMers, learn English, etc.
 

NeoXChaos

Member
Democrats suck at campaigning circa 2014 happened.

Rubio/Kasich would be formidable in the GE

Cutting into, just enough, those advantages and prevention other defections from the GOP leaning camp.

The GOP only needs to cut into a bit the dems advantage. The old white vote isn't going anywhere.

Ohio & Florida would both have home-state candidates on the ticket.

We are so polarized that I can see D's still pull out a win but I admit the contrast would be terrifying. Mitt Romney was from MA and Paul Ryan WI however....................................

You're wrong NYCmetsfan. Romney was planning on running to Bush's right on immigration, as was Cruz. Walker flip flopped on immigration specifically to take a hardline position. Would the language be as ugly without Trump? No. But the policies would ultimately be the same. Build a wall, no amnesty, nothing for DREAMers, learn English, etc.

and this aside from the extreme Trump stuff said in a less harsh way.

‏@Nate_Cohn
Anyone more vulnerable to Trump attack than Rubio? Wrong *and* weak on immigration + unable to handle personal finances w/o rich benefactor

@jhrizzy it's worse. he pulled back on his own--liberal--bill. weak and wrong.

@KDbyProxy idk. but i think that war with rubio is the most beneficial war for trump.

Sides ‏@stevandrews 32m32 minutes ago
@Nate_Cohn so you’re saying Its easy for Trump to attack Rubio?

Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn 30m30 minutes ago Washington, DC
@stevandrews perhaps even easier than anyone else
 
What makes Rubio/Kasich or Kasich/Rubio so terrifying? What happened to demographic advantages we tout here in PoliGAF being a sort of "trump" card for the Democrats? "Republicans have no chance" etc

Ohio & Florida would both have home-state candidates on the ticket.

Though I'm not hugely confident in Rubio's ability to carry Florida.
 

benjipwns

Banned
When's the last time a home-state candidate has won a state his party doesn't normally win?

Clinton in '92? And that's in part because of the Reagan landslide.

What about Veeps?
 
You're wrong NYCmetsfan. Romney was planning on running to Bush's right on immigration, as was Cruz. Walker flip flopped on immigration specifically to take a hardline position. Would the language be as ugly without Trump? No. But the policies would ultimately be the same. Build a wall, no amnesty, nothing for DREAMers, learn English, etc.
Romney went right of Bush who basically was agreeing with Democrats and pro first class citizenship.

Romney was basically "let's keep them here let them work and pay taxes but no benefits" which is exactly bush and rubios original gop proposals that's still far more fair than what trump as forced.
 
I'm not convinced Rubio is well-liked enough in Florida to put the state in firm Republican territory. Carson and Trump did better against Hillary in the last PPP poll.

Anyway the days of Ohio and Florida anointing the president are over. Virginia and Colorado are where the action is.
 

FiggyCal

Banned
I think the more important point there was that this is not what most people really mean by "nothing" (even if they think of empty space as containing nothing) and the kind of language you're using sort of obscures the thing people are trying to get at. Lawrence Krauss does this professionally and it's super-annoying that he keeps doing it after so many people have pointed it out. All the "how did something come from nothing?" pseudo-religious talk is getting at the ultimate why of things. Sure, maybe you can explain stars and planets ultimately in terms of virtual particles and quantum fields and "the fundamental nature of existence". But obviously it makes sense to then ask why it is that the fundamental nature of existence has these properties which allow it to eventually give rise to stars and planets and all that. You've not explained how it is that something can come from nothing; you've explained that what we ordinarily look at and think of as "nothing" actually isn't - there are these rules baked in to spacetime. But why those rules and not others? Why rules at all?

This is a really natural move for anyone who would have originally asked the question about origins. It's not goalpost-moving - it's what they were asking the whole time except that they misunderstood the nature of empty space. Thus multiverse theories. Also God. People find these to be plausible explanations that might not themselves require explanation.

Oh, Brawndo came back. Well, maybe two perspectives helps clear this up.

Wow. That's really well said. Much clearer than anything I could have written.
 
I thought I was decently clear so I'm not sure exactly what you're responding to or trying to clarify. I'll try to reword I guess. The quantum vacuum is not nothing. Energy fluctuations within the quantum vacuum is not nothing. Even accepting that wording, that something can 'emerge' from the quantum vacuum on a micro scale does not logically lead to the conclusion that the universe emerged from nothing on macro scale. That the quantum vacuum is said to be eternal does not make it immune to the standard logical complaints of causation.

PD started off this tangent by getting at larger issues regarding causal chains and cosmological origins (although perhaps not quite so explicitly). We were not simply discussing the semantics of what nothing means. His complaint was quite clearly directed at the common logical refrain about who created God being applied to naturalistic origins. We complain about question begging when God is invoked as a First Cause, but then the same argument structure is trotted out unironically when it comes to naturalistic explanations; see your bolded for a pretty blatant case of it.

A debate about the proper way to describe the particles is largely immaterial to this particular point because the importance is about the underlying process which is giving rise to it in the first place. Why is the quantum vacuum, along with all its associated physical conditions and mathematical laws, there in the first place? That's the crux of the issue that I think PD was getting at; that answers to that question often evoke the same circular reasoning as the religious.

First, let me just say that I have already addressed PD's argument. It was fallacious, and I have explained why it was fallacious. He constructed a false equivalency by implying that scientists just implicitly trust that eternal nothingness just somehow suddenly brought life into existence. It's utterly ridiculous. The journey towards the existence of life was long and arduous, not sudden, and did not come from pure nothingness.

I now see that you have clarified what you believe to be his underlying point, but I have already addressed this as well, though maybe I should elucidate.

It would seem that your point is that if quantum fluctuations are not necessitated by causation, then neither is God. The truth is that in theory, that could very well be true. However, the difference lies within getting to the point where it would be reasonable to make such a conclusion. You see, this isn't just about two hypothetical situations being theoretically possible. One is based on evidence and the scientific method, the other is based on faith. In order for us to be able to determine which is based on what, we must analyze the contexts for each scenario.

To say that virtual particles have likely always existed is not blind faith, it is a logical conclusion based on empirical evidence that has not been refuted by counter-evidence thus far. There is no evidence to date to suggest that there was ever a time when nothingness did not contain virtual particles. So to explain what gave rise to quantum fluctuations in the first place would be to presume that there was a point in time where nothingness did not have quantum fluctuations. Again, there is no evidence to suggest that that has ever been the case.

There IS, however, evidence to suggest that the universe contains zero energy, that the universe is flat, and that the Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle is real. Basically, all markers that make sense for a universe that could have come from nothing; a nothingness that has not changed in how 'truly' empty it was since before the origin of the universe. Factoring in all of these observations, we can begin to construct scientific theories about the very nature of existence.

There are a few things we can say about the nature of existence. It is not orderly, or with any apparent purpose, and it is a random and unstable change of states that isn't even precipitated by any known force at the fundamental level. The principles we observe about the nature of existence also apply to quantum fluctuations themselves. Meaning that we can clearly see that quantum fluctuations are just what nothingness looks like when we try to observe it, and when we do, we observe that it is the nature of existence. There is no reason to assume that the nature of existence would have ever needed a cause to give rise to the mechanics of quantum fluctuations. In fact, if these fluctuations didn't occur, it would be strange and unnatural, because that would imply that the reality of existence is able to control itself by preventing its state from changing, which would imply an order to the existence, which would imply a sequence to that order, which would require a beginning to that sequence; causation. So in essence, a reality where nothingness never fluctuates would require causation, not the other way around.

Now, when you contrast that with the fact that we cannot obtain empirical evidence of the existence of God in the first place, you understand that you'd have to use a completely different rationale to conclude that an infinitely complex anthropomorphic being of love does not require causation. We cannot look at nature and say, "see, God's energy was here, then disappeared out of existence, and then it popped back into existence, as an empirical demonstration that suggests that what is happening has always happened. To believe that God exists without causation would be to implicitly trust in something you can't even observe. That is blind faith, which is not what scientists are doing when they say that quantum fluctuations do not need causation.

It can be demonstrated that quantum fluctuations are an empirical expression of the fundamental nature of reality, therefore, without need for causation. It cannot be demonstrated that God is an empirical expression of the fundamental nature of reality. If God exists, and is not tangibly part of the observable universe, his existence requires causation, or at the very least, empirical evidence that he's fundamental in nature.

It all boils down to the issue of how scientist reach their conclusions about quantum fluctuations not needing causation vs how believers come to their conclusions about God not needing causation. The situations are not comparable and is a false equivalency, as I have stated before.

I think the more important point there was that this is not what most people really mean by "nothing" (even if they think of empty space as containing nothing) and the kind of language you're using sort of obscures the thing people are trying to get at. Lawrence Krauss does this professionally and it's super-annoying that he keeps doing it after so many people have pointed it out. All the "how did something come from nothing?" pseudo-religious talk is getting at the ultimate why of things. Sure, maybe you can explain stars and planets ultimately in terms of virtual particles and quantum fields and "the fundamental nature of existence". But obviously it makes sense to then ask why it is that the fundamental nature of existence has these properties which allow it to eventually give rise to stars and planets and all that. You've not explained how it is that something can come from nothing; you've explained that what we ordinarily look at and think of as "nothing" actually isn't - there are these rules baked in to spacetime. But why those rules and not others? Why rules at all?

This is a really natural move for anyone who would have originally asked the question about origins. It's not goalpost-moving - it's what they were asking the whole time except that they misunderstood the nature of empty space. Thus multiverse theories. Also God. People find these to be plausible explanations that might not themselves require explanation.

Oh, Brawndo came back. Well, maybe two perspectives helps clear this up.

The reason this question exists is due to human perception. We like to attribute meaning to things, asking why something is the way that it is. But it is rather presumptuous of us to assume that nature gives a shit about our understanding of its inner machinations. The truth is that some things don't have a reason because they don't need one. It's just the way WE'VE OBSERVED these things to happen.

With God, it's totally different. It's not like we can scrutinize him under the scientific method, so believing that he has always existed is simply an an act of faith. We don't even have proof that he exists in the first place!!

Hopefully that helps.
 

Metaphoreus

This is semantics, and nothing more
First, let me just say that I have already addressed PD's argument.

. . .

Hopefully that helps.

How much would people doubt me if I claimed brainchild as my alt troll account?

Also,

1. Something something essays.

2. Something something separate thread something something not politics.

3. Something something something.
 
Shutting my mouth on points one and two
Am I bad I like fallon more? I liked Colbert but I feel his new shows feels to big for him alone he needs a sidekick.
Personal taste does not make you a bad person. Why does fallon always raucously lean back and guffaw at every little thing like its the funniest joke he ever heard tho. Its off putting
 
How much would people doubt me if I claimed brainchild as my alt troll account?

Also,

1. Something something essays.

2. Something something separate thread something something not politics.

3. Something something something.

This is getting off topic, but I would never troll. That's incredibly immature and narcissistic. Though I suppose the distinction is meaningless if the thread gets derailed.
 
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