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PoliGAF 2015 |OT2| Pls print

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The only clarification I feel I have to make is that by metaphysical evidence I still don't mean religious things, I mean things that are distinguished from physical or observational evidence. Something making sense according to a theoretical mathematical/physics model (quantum gravity/string theory) is different from observations of particular 'things'.(Casimir Effect).

More of an aside, but I also think you could describe quite a bit of human knowledge as intellectual reasoning (theoretical math/physics included) so I'm not sure that's as bad as you make it out to be.

No, I know what you meant, but observations of the geometry, energy, and very existence of the universe (which are not just observations only based in math or theoretical physics) are not 'metaphysical' evidences. They are empirical evidences, and we have instruments that have been recording these observations for decades.

Yes, math and quantum theory aids us in being able to INTERPRET the evidence, but the actual observation of the evidence is done through empiricism.
 
No, I know what you meant, but observations of the geometry, energy, and very existence of the universe (which are not just observations only based in math or theoretical physics) are not 'metaphysical' evidences. They are empirical evidences, and we have instruments that have been recording these observations for decades.

Yes, math and quantum theory aids us in being able to INTERPRET the evidence, but the actual observation of the evidence is done through empiricism.

The only clarification I feel I have to make is that by metaphysical evidence I still don't mean religious things, I mean things that are distinguished from physical or observational evidence. Something making sense according to a theoretical mathematical/physics model (quantum gravity/string theory) is different from observations of particular 'things'.(Casimir Effect).

More of an aside, but I also think you could describe quite a bit of human knowledge as intellectual reasoning (theoretical math/physics included) so I'm not sure that's as bad as you make it out to be.

What are you even talking about...What...
 

HylianTom

Banned
I don't think they can. It isn't that he's the only one using Twitter - it's that Trump comes with a megaphone far larger than anyone else's. People want to watch him and see what he does, so the press follow him. No-one cares what Jindal tweets about because he isn't trump.

Romney struggled with it in 2012 as well - just by being Trump, he can dominate the media narrative in the USA more than almost anyone.
I don't think anyone on either side is going to do as well as he can. You've nailed the megaphone aspect, but there's also this sense I get from all other candidates that they're holding back, staying safe, using measured language, etc. With Trump, we get YouTube-tier comments, subtweeting..

For example, Hillary would say something boring and safe like, "I'm against Keystone."
Trump, on the other hand would say something like, "Keystone? Hell NO! I'm not screwing over our kids' environmental inheritance.." yadda yadda yadda..

For the purpose of getting media attention, his phraseology can be so damn good.

It's becoming clear he's gonna run as a third party if Bush or Rubio win.
Especially if the GOP remains so very transparent about railroading him to a loss.
 
Does he? He makes like a hundred tweets in a row.

And this is what his speeches look like transcribed:
CLRfjaBUMAArjcM.jpg:large


It's amazing he has like six digressions all within each other and he still gets back to the original subject albeit randomly.

.
 

Farmboy

Member
Saw Trump on Colbert. Talk about low energy. I guess it would have been worse for him to take Colbert's bait, but passively agreeing to everything Colbert said and then hemming and hawing on the birther question... just not a good look. Certainly not in line with the take-charge-loudmouth his supporters like to see. This might actually hurt him more than the debate.
 
Saw Trump on Colbert. Talk about low energy. I guess it would have been worse for him to take Colbert's bait, but passively agreeing to everything Colbert said and then hemming and hawing on the birther question... just not a good look. Certainly not in line with the take-charge-loudmouth his supporters like to see. This might actually hurt him more than the debate.
Not like Trump supporters watch Colbert any way.
 

NeoXChaos

Member
The nonpartisan, nonprofit Commission on Presidential Debates (CPD) today announced sites and dates for three presidential and one vice presidential debates during the 2016 general election. The dates and sites are:

First presidential debate:
Monday, September 26, 2016
Wright State University, Dayton, OH

Vice presidential debate:
Tuesday, October 4, 2016
Longwood University, Farmville, VA

Second presidential debate:
Sunday, October 9, 2016
Washington University in St. Louis, St. Louis, MO

Third presidential debate:
Wednesday, October 19, 2016
University of Nevada, Las Vegas, Las Vegas, NV
 
the Pope making ultra right wingers go ape shit crazy is God send.

You got the GOP on one side espousing freedom of religion, protecting Christianity blablabla

then the top dog of the Catholic Church tells them ''Greed is bad'' then ''God gave you one Planet, take care of your Planet'', Republicans are losing their minds

Hahaha it is so funny seeing the the Ultra Far Right get butt hurt by the almighty Pope
 
For example, Hillary would say something boring and safe like, "I'm against Keystone."
Trump, on the other hand would say something like, "Keystone? Hell NO! I'm not screwing over our kids' environmental inheritance.." yadda yadda yadda..

For the purpose of getting media attention, his phraseology can be so damn good.

It's also better for feeding talking points to your base. Set the narrative then and there.
 
T

thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
Yeah. I don't like it being the Colbert report.

Everything is about politics it seems and doesn't seem as "fun"

Then it sounds like what you want is Fallon. And that's fine because we still have Fallon.

I like that Colbert is doing something different than Fallon is.

It's not just politics either. "On a really hot day, anyone who says ‘hot enough for you?’ to another person will immediately be set on fire." isn't exactly a fun thing to say, but it is certainly a funny thing to say, and wouldn't be as funny if Fallon said it.
 
No, I know what you meant, but observations of the geometry, energy, and very existence of the universe (which are not just observations only based in math or theoretical physics) are not 'metaphysical' evidences. They are empirical evidences, and we have instruments that have been recording these observations for decades.

Yes, math and quantum theory aids us in being able to INTERPRET the evidence, but the actual observation of the evidence is done through empiricism.

Ah but there in lies the rub. We were not arguing about the physical observations themselves we were talking about more axiomatic issues involving something existing forever and conceptions of 'nothingness'. And that means you're no longer in the purely observational side of the equation; the kind of conclusions you're trying to draw requires quite a bit more than that. It relies on that unfairly maligned 'intellectual reasoning'.

To be specific, we have two conclusions (taking into context the ensuing discussion and the broader implicit point):

There's no real difference between "well God existed forever" and "well the nothingness existed forever"

X existed forever is our conclusion. Now we can form an argument structure to try to prove that. And naturally some of our premises (and sub-arguments for them) will differ depending on what we choose as X. Your continual and critical mistake is that you have focused entirely on forms of evidence for isolated premises and ignored entirely the central question of whether the form of the argument itself is valid. An argument form is valid if and only if every argument of that logical form is valid. So when I talk about God and first causes, I'm not trying to be an apologist, I'm trying to get you to recognize the problem with your own position by pointing out the same problem in a place where you probably recognize it.

Question begging in and of itself isn't the problem. The problem arises when you've drawn conclusions that beg the question without having any evidence that demonstrates the premise of your argument in the first place.

Sorry but this is word-vomit. Question begging is when the premises include the claim that the conclusion is true or assume (directly or indirectly) that the conclusion is true. It has nothing to do with evidence for the premises; whether or not a premise is true has nothing to do with whether the logical form of an argument is valid or not. You can have a valid argument with false premises for example.

Let me visualize begging the question:

Question

Premise 1: A Claim (Perhaps supported by overwhelming evidence)
Premise 2: Another Claim (Perhaps supported by strong evidence)
Premise 3: A Claim dependent on the conclusion being true

Conclusion

Premise 1 and 2 can be well supported, but that doesn't mean your argument is logically valid.

The reason I quoted Alan Guth was because I hoped you would be more receptive to his expertise/motivation regarding the legitimacy of this point. “In this context, a proposal that the universe was created from empty space is no more fundamental than a proposal that the universe was spawned by a piece of rubber. It might be true, but one would still want to ask where the piece of rubber came from”. Clearly Guth does not consider the question logically incomprehensible or trivial. Even a claim that some things don't need reasons/causes needs to have justification for itself outside of circular reinforcement.

I guess I was wrong when I said I was done before, but I super duper promise this time that I'm tapped out now. No more clarifications from me, politics only from here on out!
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Trump is fishing for another call from a slobbered, graveling Roger Ailes at his feet. It will be back to normal.

:lol

The nonpartisan, nonprofit Commission on Presidential Debates (CPD) today announced sites and dates for three presidential and one vice presidential debates during the 2016 general election. The dates and sites are:

First presidential debate:
Monday, September 26, 2016
Wright State University, Dayton, OH

Vice presidential debate:
Tuesday, October 4, 2016
Longwood University, Farmville, VA

Second presidential debate:
Sunday, October 9, 2016
Washington University in St. Louis, St. Louis, MO

Third presidential debate:
Wednesday, October 19, 2016
University of Nevada, Las Vegas, Las Vegas, NV

And so the planning for my magum opus begins. Yes, a trilogy and a side story. That final debate is placed perfectly for a good gambling pun.
 
:lol



And so the planning for my magum opus begins. Yes, a trilogy and a side story. That final debate is placed perfectly for a good gambling pun.
Its true. Every time Fox News slights Trump, he will make Ailes beg like a dog and make him kiss his ring.
 

Slacker

Member
Saw Trump on Colbert. Talk about low energy. I guess it would have been worse for him to take Colbert's bait, but passively agreeing to everything Colbert said and then hemming and hawing on the birther question... just not a good look. Certainly not in line with the take-charge-loudmouth his supporters like to see. This might actually hurt him more than the debate.

Rachel Maddow has been talking about it and I think she's right: Trump is getting tired. It's hard work running for president, and at some point I can't imagine he's not thinking he could be sipping fancy drinks on a yacht somewhere instead.
 

PantherLotus

Professional Schmuck
Rachel Maddow has been talking about it and I think she's right: Trump is getting tired. It's hard work running for president, and at some point I can't imagine he's not thinking he could be sipping fancy drinks on a yacht somewhere instead.

Well it's also that he's not really sincere and doesn't actually want to be president. Joke's on him!
 

teiresias

Member
The nonpartisan, nonprofit Commission on Presidential Debates (CPD) today announced sites and dates for three presidential and one vice presidential debates during the 2016 general election. The dates and sites are:

First presidential debate:
Monday, September 26, 2016
Wright State University, Dayton, OH

Vice presidential debate:
Tuesday, October 4, 2016
Longwood University, Farmville, VA

Second presidential debate:
Sunday, October 9, 2016
Washington University in St. Louis, St. Louis, MO

Third presidential debate:
Wednesday, October 19, 2016
University of Nevada, Las Vegas, Las Vegas, NV

It's a pity the final one won't be held in the GOP candidate's own hotel. I guess that may not appear impartial though.
 

NeoXChaos

Member
Warner would cause his seat to become a special election where the Democrats would have to defend 2 Senate seats in a midterm. Kaine for a 2nd term and Warner's appointed successor to feel out the rest of his term.
 
Warner would cause his seat to become a special election where the Democrats would have to defend 2 Senate seats in a midterm. Kaine for a 2nd term and Warner's appointed successor to feel out the rest of his term.
Yup. There would be two Senate elections in 2018. And given that Warner almost lost to a complete hack like Gillepsie I wouldn't want to risk two Senate seats.

Though at least if Democrats lost Warner's seat they'd only have to wait 2 years to try and win it back.

My guess is that if Kaine is the VP and wins, McAuliffe would appoint a placeholder and run in 2018.
 

Metaphoreus

This is semantics, and nothing more
Fucking repeal FOIA, holy fuck, this is insane. It's nothing but trash.

http://www.politico.com/story/2015/09/clinton-emails-benghazi-213940

Repeal FOIA? What?

If this were one of those FOIA-being-used-to-hassle-climate-scientists situations, that'd be one thing. But enabling the public to access official government records is the very purpose of FOIA.

EDIT: And, from a closer reading, it doesn't even look like the emails themselves have been provided. It's just a log identifying e-mails that are being withheld--as Politico puts it, "[t]he filing . . . describes about a dozen Benghazi-related emails that were withheld in whole or in part as State responded to one of the group's requests[.]" Again, what's the injustice here that could justify repealing FOIA?
 

HylianTom

Banned
Ooh, Kaine's gonna bring it.

Will they be partnering up with Facebook for this one? Since you know... Farmville.


I'm getting a vision from the future..

the VP candidate exits the debate building, hops into his vehicle in the motorcade, and goes right over to Richmond (where he was mayor) for a HYUGE pep rally.
 
Who do we think would run for Kaine's spot if he becomes Veep?

Tom Perriello. I still believe the reason he didn't run for governor is because of a wink wink hint hint with respect to a senate seat. If he had run for governor he would have trounced McAuliffe and the media would have spent months flooding us with Obama v Clinton articles; Perriello is an Obama ally, and decided not to run after meeting with Bill Clinton and some Obama folks.
 
Ah but there in lies the rub. We were not arguing about the physical observations themselves we were talking about more axiomatic issues involving something existing forever and conceptions of 'nothingness'. And that means you're no longer in the purely observational side of the equation; the kind of conclusions you're trying to draw requires quite a bit more than that. It relies on that unfairly maligned 'intellectual reasoning'.

To be specific, we have two conclusions (taking into context the ensuing discussion and the broader implicit point):



X existed forever is our conclusion. Now we can form an argument structure to try to prove that. And naturally some of our premises (and sub-arguments for them) will differ depending on what we choose as X. Your continual and critical mistake is that you have focused entirely on forms of evidence for isolated premises and ignored entirely the central question of whether the form of the argument itself is valid. An argument form is valid if and only if every argument of that logical form is valid. So when I talk about God and first causes, I'm not trying to be an apologist, I'm trying to get you to recognize the problem with your own position by pointing out the same problem in a place where you probably recognize it.



Sorry but this is word-vomit. Question begging is when the premises include the claim that the conclusion is true or assume (directly or indirectly) that the conclusion is true. It has nothing to do with evidence for the premises; whether or not a premise is true has nothing to do with whether the logical form of an argument is valid or not. You can have a valid argument with false premises for example.

Let me visualize begging the question:

Question

Premise 1: A Claim (Perhaps supported by overwhelming evidence)
Premise 2: Another Claim (Perhaps supported by strong evidence)
Premise 3: A Claim dependent on the conclusion being true

Conclusion

Premise 1 and 2 can be well supported, but that doesn't mean your argument is logically valid.

The reason I quoted Alan Guth was because I hoped you would be more receptive to his expertise/motivation regarding the legitimacy of this point. “In this context, a proposal that the universe was created from empty space is no more fundamental than a proposal that the universe was spawned by a piece of rubber. It might be true, but one would still want to ask where the piece of rubber came from”. Clearly Guth does not consider the question logically incomprehensible or trivial. Even a claim that some things don't need reasons/causes needs to have justification for itself outside of circular reinforcement.

I guess I was wrong when I said I was done before, but I super duper promise this time that I'm tapped out now. No more clarifications from me, politics only from here on out!


I will PM you my response out of respect to everyone else in this thread.
 
Tom Perriello. I still believe the reason he didn't run for governor is because of a wink wink hint hint with respect to a senate seat. If he had run for governor he would have trounced McAuliffe and the media would have spent months flooding us with Obama v Clinton articles; Perriello is an Obama ally, and decided not to run after meeting with Bill Clinton and some Obama folks.
Eh. I'd love it if Perriello came back but by all accounts he seems to enjoy private life.

Damn shame he lost in 2010. A lot of blue dogs went down which is probably better for the party in the long run but I'd say a good 30 seats or so lost were extremely valuable Democratic votes. And now that there's no chance of getting guys like Chet Edwards or John Barrow back in office the path to a House majority is far narrower - Dems would have to start winning those R+0-3 seats in the suburbs who are perfectly content with sending "moderate" Republicans to Congress every two years who get there and start voting like Michele Bachmann. And of course gerrymandering makes that extremely difficult, that goes without saying.
 

NeoXChaos

Member
Eh. I'd love it if Perriello came back but by all accounts he seems to enjoy private life.

Damn shame he lost in 2010. A lot of blue dogs went down which is probably better for the party in the long run but I'd say a good 30 seats or so lost were extremely valuable Democratic votes. And now that there's no chance of getting guys like Chet Edwards or John Barrow back in office the path to a House majority is far narrower - Dems would have to start winning those R+0-3 seats in the suburbs who are perfectly content with sending "moderate" Republicans to Congress every two years who get there and start voting like Michele Bachmann. And of course gerrymandering makes that extremely difficult, that goes without saying.

The wasted votes is certainly a problem that can't be fixed until redistricting. We have to deal with the cards we have now unfortunately.
 
The wasted votes is certainly a problem that can't be fixed until redistricting. We have to deal with the cards we have now unfortunately.
If 2016 is good for Democrats I could see them winning about 20 seats.

But they'd probably have to win by double digits to actually snag a majority. And it would be small.
 

NeoXChaos

Member
If you picked Trump, this author thinks this time things might be different and the party might not decide.

http://www.vox.com/2015/9/23/9352273/party-decides-trump-sanders

It turns out that in most of the cases in which the party does decide, there was one candidate who clearly had a higher standing than the others from the start. That, The Party Decides co-author and University of Maryland professor David Karol told me, is his main "skepticism" about his own theory. "In the cases where the party has coordinated on a candidate," he says, "it's almost always been somebody fairly obvious."

Indeed, of the ten correctly predicted contests in the table above, eight featured either an incumbent president, a well-respected sitting or recent vice president, or a strong runner-up from the party's most recent contest. In those cases, the party's "decision" actually looks pretty easy. But The Party Agrees When the Answer is Obvious isn't a particularly interesting book title.

But overall, the book's findings could be interpreted as making the more prosaic point that when there's a very clear heir apparent, that person both gets endorsed by the party and tends to end up winning. That would have some implications for this year's Democratic race, in which Hillary Clinton has long been the clear leader in endorsements. (Bernie Sanders may have recently taken the lead in some Iowa and New Hampshire polls, but he hasn't gotten even one Democratic congressman, senator, or governor to back him.)

And in recent years, it's looked increasingly normal for the party to be indecisive for a long time. Neither John Kerry in 2004, nor Barack Obama in 2008, nor John McCain in 2008 was a clear endorsement winner before Iowa. In all these contests, party elites followed voters — not the other way around. That means that Mitt Romney's 2012 victory is the only race since 2000 in which the authors' data shows that a party made an early decision and got its way. "Since we started writing the book," Karol says, "we've had messy races."3

Indeed, in every contest starting with 1980, both Democrats and Republicans have ended up with a nominee that party insiders can live with. No nominee since has been a fringe figure. So some have argued that even if the parties can't always handpick the candidates they want, they have been able to exert their influence to block candidates they view as truly unacceptable. That is, even if the party can't decide, it can veto.

Though all these are important, in the end, the authors of The Party Decides write that "political persuasion — a cue from partisan leaders to partisan voters — may be the most important mechanism of insider control." In other words, the party gets its way by telling voters, both through implicit signaling and explicit endorsements, which candidate is best.

"Most primary voters are partisan voters who care about their party and they like the party leadership," Noel, a professor of government at Georgetown (and, as of earlier this month, a Vox.com contributor at Mischiefs of Faction), says. "So if the party coordinates and says, 'that’s our guy,' then those voters are going to respond to that."

But this year's Republican voters haven't seemed in the mood to follow their elites' lead. Indeed, polls have shown that, in contrast to Democrats, a majority of the GOP electorate thinks its party leadership isn't doing a good job representing their views on major issues. Voters are frustrated and angry, Matalin says, because of the party's "seeming inability to deliver conservative policies despite monumental electoral gains at all levels."

Meanwhile, the judgments from party elites that have been expressed so far almost seem to act as an anti-endorsement. Condemnations from those elites, like those aimed at Trump, have been taken as a badge of honor. When the billionaire calls GOP leaders "stupid," as he so frequently does, voters tend to agree with him. If that's the case, why would they care what the party's eventual decision may be?

When I asked Karol whether anything could have changed to reduce the party's grip in recent years, he cited two main possibilities. First, party elites' control could be weakened if there's a particularly controversial hot-button issue splitting them from their voters. "When we first presented The Party Decides, [UCSD professor] Sam Popkin said, 'I basically buy your story — except when the there's a really divisive issue and the party elite can't really get behind somebody," Karol says. For instance, the Vietnam War empowered the rise of George McGovern in 1972, and the Iraq war was a major issue in the Democratic primaries of 2004 and 2008.4

So perhaps unauthorized immigration, the issue that first catapulted Trump to the front of the polls, is now having a similarly divisive effect on the GOP. It's long been a troublesome topic for the party's elites, who tend to either explicitly or tacitly support a path to legal status for these immigrants, while their base favors a much harder line. John McCain managed to survive his heresy on the issue back in 2008, but this year, Trump's tough talk about deporting 11 million people seems to excite conservatives most. And now that Scott Walker has quit the race, both of the remaining candidates who seem formidable to elites — Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio — are very closely tied to immigration policies that deeply anger those conservatives.

Party_Decides_table_2.0.png
 
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