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PoliGAF 2015 |OT2| Pls print

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tanod

when is my burrito
Final Week. Make your final decision by friday. If you have not made a choice make it. If you have and it is not up there or I forgot about it tell me.

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=178225136&postcount=553

No one from the Rubio camp have changed their predictions. A few from the Bush camp are now with Trump. No one originally from the Trump camp have switched.

Sign me up for Trump, please.

I think Bush is probably going to end up 2nd because of his massive financial advantage.
 

PantherLotus

Professional Schmuck
Trump adopting a completely generic GOP tax reform platform is by far his biggest misstep yet. It takes about 5 seconds to go, "oh, he's just like every other Republican." The kind conservatives are actively rebelling against.

I think he's a blowhard and I don't believe he actually wants to be president, but I also think he's shown that if you couch populist positions in racist ways you could gain an incredible foothold near the middle. He seriously exposes the problems with a two party system ... and then he goes and does this.
 

Maledict

Member
I warned many people about Carson and now he is starting to get into frontrunner range. It's too late now for a "take him out quickly" gang up, he has to much respect and support.

Also I have no idea why people think Rubio is going anywhere, is someone like say Bush collapses they aren't going to Rubio.

Carson unlocked the secret to the republican primary. Just keep staying in the news by saying crazy stuff.

Trump needs to come up with new crazy stuff to say. His old crazy stuff is getting boring.


Not really, he would have been destroyed, the thin is Carson did research and knew that the majority of americans agree with what he was saying so he ended up taking next to know damage, and that interview with Tapper intentionally trying to give a gotcha to him will just make him more popular.



Actually most sites with that interview mentioned in the article with or without video have people saying CNN was failing to trap him. But I think this is going to be another thing people wil ignore and write off carson for, until he becomes the front runner. Because no one has learned from the last 3 mistakes.

Completely idiotic, wouldn't work, we literally just tried this ten years ago and that's how we got ISIS in the first place.
.


Not really, ISIS didn't come until after the troops were swiftly withdrawn.

As little as I understand his appeal, you can put me down for Ben Carson to take the nomination. He has the momentum and poll numbers vs Democrats.
I am so close to joining you.

The reason you two don't get his appeal is because you've been writting him off and not taking him seriously, or not paying attention to him, a mistake many others made. The once candidate that could have been knocked off this race in 1 day or so with some gang up is not too strong to touch, and has way to much respect from the community. His Muslim comments, while controversial, were at many times spun, and that interview mentioned above with Jake will do nothing but make him be a hero

You're Diabolsing hard here.

Trump and Carson have no shot. At all. Hillary probably gets close to 400 EC votes if she's running against Trump.

Rubio could give her a challenge. Absolutely. But Trump or Carson? Not a fucking chance.

Carson has had no shot and was written off a lot of radars since he announced he was running, and that was a mistake, you're still going to do this?

Again, Carson's favorable numbers (even with crucial independent voters) are through the roof--even after all of his ridiculously stupid comments. .

What stupid comments? This is one of the problems, it may be possibly you are in a minority of what is considered stupid. The only possible stupid comments that probably have a heavier lean against him were his old comments from 3 years ago people are bringing up now because they can no longer find a way to hurt him because they let him get this big.

Most Americans agree or are neutral to everything he says.
 
CQATJhHWUAAWmTJ.jpg


University of Chicago. Axelrod introduced Bernie.

Kii. Theres a black lady at the center bottom, though. :p

He really needs to address the racial un-diversity of his voting bloc. He may have won over white liberals, but they made only 55-60% of the dem electorate. He CANT win anything without getting non-whites on board too or history will indeed repeat itself.
 

dramatis

Member
Elizabeth Warren gave a pretty good speech at the Edward Kennedy Institute, including a defense of Black Lives Matter.

Economic justice is not — and has never been — sufficient to ensure racial justice. Owning a home won't stop someone from burning a cross on the front lawn. Admission to a school won't prevent a beating on the sidewalk outside. But when Dr. King led hundreds of thousands of people to march on Washington, he talked about an end to violence, access to voting AND economic opportunity. As Dr. King once wrote, "the inseparable twin of racial injustice was economic injustice."

The tools of oppression were woven together, and the civil rights struggle was fought against that oppression wherever it was found — against violence, against the denial of voting rights, and against economic injustice.
Back in March, I met an elderly man at the First Baptist Church in Montgomery, Alabama. We were having coffee and doughnuts in the church basement before the service started. He told me that more than 50 years earlier — in May of 1961 — he had spent 11 hours in that same basement, along with hundreds of people, while a mob outside threatened to burn down the church because it was a sanctuary for civil rights workers. Dr. King called Attorney General Bobby Kennedy, desperately asking for help. The attorney general promised to send the Army, but the closest military base was several hours away. So the members of the church and the civil rights workers waited in the sweltering basement, crowded together, listening to the mob outside and hoping the US Army would arrive in time.

After the church service, I asked Congressman John Lewis about that night. He had been right there in that church back in 1961 while the mob gathered outside. He had been in the room during the calls to the attorney general. I asked if he had been afraid that the Army wouldn't make it in time. He said that he was "never, ever afraid. You come to that point where you lose all sense of fear." And then he said something I'll never forget. He said that his parents didn't want him to get involved in civil rights. They didn't want him to "cause trouble." But he had done it anyway. He told me, "Sometimes it is important to cause necessary trouble."
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
I warned many people about Carson and now he is starting to get into frontrunner range. It's too late now for a "take him out quickly" gang up, he has to much respect and support.

Also I have no idea why people think Rubio is going anywhere, is someone like say Bush collapses they aren't going to Rubio.




Not really, he would have been destroyed, the thin is Carson did research and knew that the majority of americans agree with what he was saying so he ended up taking next to know damage, and that interview with Tapper intentionally trying to give a gotcha to him will just make him more popular.




Actually most sites with that interview mentioned in the article with or without video have people saying CNN was failing to trap him. But I think this is going to be another thing people wil ignore and write off carson for, until he becomes the front runner. Because no one has learned from the last 3 mistakes.




Not really, ISIS didn't come until after the troops were swiftly withdrawn.




The reason you two don't get his appeal is because you've been writting him off and not taking him seriously, or not paying attention to him, a mistake many others made. The once candidate that could have been knocked off this race in 1 day or so with some gang up is not too strong to touch, and has way to much respect from the community. His Muslim comments, while controversial, were at many times spun, and that interview mentioned above with Jake will do nothing but make him be a hero



Carson has had no shot and was written off a lot of radars since he announced he was running, and that was a mistake, you're still going to do this?



What stupid comments? This is one of the problems, it may be possibly you are in a minority of what is considered stupid. The only possible stupid comments that probably have a heavier lean against him were his old comments from 3 years ago people are bringing up now because they can no longer find a way to hurt him because they let him get this big.

Most Americans agree or are neutral to everything he says.

Settle down--I think you're preaching to the wrong guy. I said months ago on here that Carson appeals to a broad range of Americans and that he would end up being a prime candidate for VP.

And, yes, I was referring to his dumb comments from the past. I'm confused--are you arguing that most Americans agree that males enter jail heterosexual and then come out of jail homosexual? Because that's what he said and that's what you said that most Americans agree with.
 
Elizabeth Warren gave a pretty good speech at the Edward Kennedy Institute, including a defense of Black Lives Matter.

Thanks for this. I'll definitely be watching it later on.

I think the distinction between economic injustice and racial injustice is an important one, and it's something that Bernie needs to continue to make clear during his campaign so that people don't think that he's conflating the two, though they're very much tied together at this point.
 
I'm sticking with Jeb!. Things change week to week so this is nothing new. Rubio's immigration stance will kill him with the base. Jeb! has the same stance but he has the money and connections to survive this. Bush clan is vindictive to boot.

Rubio is too wet in the ears to survive this. Jeb! knows this.

Lock me in for Jeb!.
 

NeoXChaos

Member
I'm sticking with Jeb!. Things change week to week so this is nothing new. Rubio's immigration stance will kill him with the base. Jeb! has the same stance but he has the money and connections to survive this. Bush clan is vindictive to boot.

Rubio is too wet in the ears to survive this. Jeb! knows this.

Lock me in for Jeb!.

RIght on. Bush is going to win this thing.
 
PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls 37m37 minutes ago

Trump was at 24% in North Carolina on our poll that came out of the field August 16th, 26% on one that wrapped up September 27th

PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls 35m35 minutes ago

Jeb Bush has dropped from 13% to 5% in North Carolina in the last month

PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls 18m18 minutes ago

Trump is actually losing 'very conservative' voters in NC to Carson now but leads overall because of his strong support from moderates....

.
 
Thanks for this. I'll definitely be watching it later on.

I think the distinction between economic injustice and racial injustice is an important one, and it's something that Bernie needs to continue to make clear during his campaign so that people don't think that he's conflating the two, though they're very much tied together at this point.

Both issues go together though. Nearly every major racial injustice in this country's history was implemented through some type of economic vehicle. Jim Crow, redlining, loans, access to entitlements like Social Security, etc. Reversing or combating institutional racism is largely an economic issue over access to basic services and rights. Sanders has largely been talking about how to lift the middle class and it just so happens that most of his proposals benefit many black people. Reinvesting in inner cities, lifting the minimum wage, free college, bringing back manufacturing, etc. Some pie in the sky stuff obviously but still...

That's ultimately the biggest problem facing black people. A small group of people being unjustly killed by police shouldn't be the dominant issue at hand. If anything it's a symptom of the larger issue of institutional racism in many/most cities.

But nah, let's attack him because he didn't hop on a hashtag fast enough...sigh
 

HylianTom

Banned
Rubio: Leave me out of Trump's 'freak show'

Marco Rubio wants no part of Donald Trump’s “freak show,” the Florida senator said in an NPR interview aired Monday.

“I’m not interested in the back and forth — to be a member or a part of his freak show,” the Republican presidential candidate remarked. “I would just say this: He is a very sensitive person; he doesn’t like to be criticized. He responds to criticism very poorly.”

The comments echo what Rubio told Fox News’ Bill O’Reilly last Thursday, when he called the billionaire mogul “thin-skinned and sensitive to criticism” and someone who “can’t have a conversation about policy because quite frankly he doesn’t know anything about policy.”

For his part, Trump has repeatedly called out Rubio for his attendance record in the Senate, calling him “a kid,” “overly ambitious” and “too young” and joking that he has better hair than the 44-year-old senator. He also dinged him for his finances, for being “disloyal” to former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and for his alleged propensity to sweat.

“I’ve never seen a young guy sweat so much,” Trump said in South Carolina last week, referring to Rubio’s appearance at the second GOP presidential debate, when all the candidates stood on a hot stage for more than three hours. “He’s drinking water, water, water; I never saw anything like this with him with the water.”

I wonder what Trump's response will be. I like that he's attacking Rubio, but his attacks have been kinda weak. He needs to get more creative.
 

Oblivion

Fetishing muscular manly men in skintight hosery
Yeah I'm gonna stick with Jeb! as well, solely because the gods refuse to give us a more entertaining presidential race.
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
I'm sticking with Jeb!. Things change week to week so this is nothing new. Rubio's immigration stance will kill him with the base. Jeb! has the same stance but he has the money and connections to survive this. Bush clan is vindictive to boot.

Rubio is too wet in the ears to survive this. Jeb! knows this.

Lock me in for Jeb!.

RIght on. Bush is going to win this thing.

PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls 35m35 minutes ago

Jeb Bush has dropped from 13% to 5% in North Carolina in the last month

The timing of these 3 consecutive posts :lol
 
Trump adopting a completely generic GOP tax reform platform is by far his biggest misstep yet. It takes about 5 seconds to go, "oh, he's just like every other Republican." The kind conservatives are actively rebelling against.

I think he's a blowhard and I don't believe he actually wants to be president, but I also think he's shown that if you couch populist positions in racist ways you could gain an incredible foothold near the middle. He seriously exposes the problems with a two party system ... and then he goes and does this.

I don't think this is what he's done at all, and I'm pretty far from republican.
 
Both issues go together though. Nearly every major racial injustice in this country's history was implemented through some type of economic vehicle. Jim Crow, redlining, loans, access to entitlements like Social Security, etc. Reversing or combating institutional racism is largely an economic issue over access to basic services and rights. Sanders has largely been talking about how to lift the middle class and it just so happens that most of his proposals benefit many black people. Reinvesting in inner cities, lifting the minimum wage, free college, bringing back manufacturing, etc. Some pie in the sky stuff obviously but still...

That's ultimately the biggest problem facing black people. A small group of people being unjustly killed by police shouldn't be the dominant issue at hand. If anything it's a symptom of the larger issue of institutional racism in many/most cities.

But nah, let's attack him because he didn't hop on a hashtag fast enough...sigh

Umm...

Thanks for this. I'll definitely be watching it later on.

I think the distinction between economic injustice and racial injustice is an important one, and it's something that Bernie needs to continue to make clear during his campaign so that people don't think that he's conflating the two, though they're very much tied together at this point.

Perhaps you missed the bolded?

I don't disagree, I just think Bernie needs to continue to make it clear that they're not the same (he's already done that, but he needs to continue to do so if economic injustice is going to be a major platform for him), even if they both go hand in hand.
 

Metaphoreus

This is semantics, and nothing more
Using quick napkin math, a random sample of 30,000 emails at a 95% CL and a CI of 5 would require a sample of 379 emails. For the sake of illustration, let's say they actually did that instead of 40 and the ratio of confidential was the same so we found 19 emails. So then we could be 95% sure that the percentage of confidential emails is somewhere between 10 and 0 percent.

That's obviously not very helpful because the difference between zero and non-zero is essentially what we're trying to determine. Our confidence interval is too large because the value we're trying to determine is itself very small and near zero. So let's lower it to 2.

Well now we need a random sample of 2,223 emails. Again, for the sake of illustration, let's say they did sample that many and the ratio of confidential was again the same, so we found 111 emails. Then we could be 95% sure that the percentage of confidential emails is somewhere between 7 and 3 percent. If the number of confidential emails found was 50, then we could be 95% sure that the percentage of confidential emails is somewhere between 4.2 and 0.2 percent, and so on an so forth.

Obviously the actual number of confidential emails found in a larger sample is the unknown we need to draw conclusions, so we can't really say anything from the 2 in 40. And even when you do get the larger sample, it's possible that the number of emails found is so low that to make a real conclusion we need to re-sample from a larger pool because of the necessity for a smaller confidence interval.

Thanks.

For the record, it's maybe 1 in 40, since one of the emails was concerning a program that's top secret but has been discussed in public by government officials for some time (the drone program).

Not like that actually affects your math.

I don't buy this excuse, for two reasons. First, the State IG, Intelligence Community IG, CIA, and NGA all agree that two of the emails flagged by the State IG and ICIG contain secret information; and two others contain top secret information. So, as I pointed out before, this is a situation comparing the formal conclusions of government officials whose role it is to draw those conclusions, on the one hand, and anonymous media sources on the other.

Second, it doesn't matter whether the material should be classified. What matters is that it is, and the rules for handling such material require that it be treated as such. "She only ignored the law when she disagreed with it" isn't a defense.
 
I don't think this is what he's done at all, and I'm pretty far from republican.
Eh... Stuff like repealing the estate tax is pretty standard Republican, and his plan to "deal" with offshore corporate tax havens seems like it'd have the opposite effect.

Lower tax rates without any loopholes/credits is very similar to the Zero Plan that the Simpson-Bowles deficit commission came up with.
 

ivysaur12

Banned
Thanks.



I don't buy this excuse, for two reasons. First, the State IG, Intelligence Community IG, CIA, and NGA all agree that two of the emails flagged by the State IG and ICIG contain secret information; and two others contain top secret information. So, as I pointed out before, this is a situation comparing the formal conclusions of government officials whose role it is to draw those conclusions, on the one hand, and anonymous media sources on the other.

Second, it doesn't matter whether the material should be classified. What matters is that it is, and the rules for handling such material require that it be treated as such. "She only ignored the law when she disagreed with it" isn't a defense.

Well, yes, they technically contain secret information. But if it's an email sharing a link about a program in the actual press that is top secret, I don't buy that at all that there is some sort of compromise of top secret information.

Even if it is classified as top secret, are we now going to throw Leon Panetta in jail for talking about the drone program? Dianne Feinstein? Not only did they talk about it on an unclassified channel, they talked about it with their lips to the public! Take them to the stocks!

I don't know what was in the other email. We don't know, and I'd prefer it if the entire investigation was finished before we see what Evils Hillary Clinton is up to on her EvilMail. Maybe there some sort of smoking gun that will show she compromised national security irreparably and she'll be taken off in cuffs and Republicans will finally get the mugshot they've been salivating at since the 90s. Maybe she'll deserve it.

Sending an email with a link to an article about the drone program that is openly discussed by high level officials in public not something in which any person who could look at this objectively would see as a compromise of top secret information.

I would implore people on the right to actually wait to see if Hillary actually compromised national security before they try to jump on something stupid and overplay their hand with Hillary, as is their wont.

EDIT: LOCK HIM UP

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/05/24/us/politics/transcript-of-obamas-speech-on-drone-policy.html

So it is in this context that the United States has taken lethal, targeted action against al Qaeda and its associated forces, including with remotely piloted aircraft commonly referred to as drones.
 
Well, yes, they technically contain secret information. But if it's an email sharing a link about a program in the actual press that is top secret, I don't buy that at all that there is some sort of compromise of top secret information.

Even if it is classified as top secret, are we now going to throw Leon Panetta in jail for talking about the drone program? Dianne Feinstein? Not only did they talk about it on an unclassified channel, they talked about it with their lips to the public! Take them to the stocks!

I don't know what was in the other email. We don't know, and I'd prefer it if the entire investigation was finished before we see what Evils Hillary Clinton is up to on her EvilMail. Maybe there some sort of smoking gun that will show she compromised national security irreparably and she'll be taken off in cuffs and Republicans will finally get the mugshot they've been salivating at since the 90s. Maybe she'll deserve it.

Sending an email with a link to an article about the drone program that is openly discussed by high level officials in public not something in which any person who could look at this objectively would see as a compromise of top secret information.

I would implore people on the right to actually wait to see if Hillary actually compromised national security before they try to jump on something stupid and overplay their hand with Hillary, as is their wont.

Honestly, unless she actually sent any of these hypothetically classified materials from her server, I don't see them being able to legally pin her down with anything, except being in possession of them if she didn't turn them over.

Yes, she's personally responsible for the server, so if that classified information somehow got released to the public, they'd blame her, but that doesn't seem to be an issue at this point.
 
Why is wage growth so shitty currently? I thought it was due to the recession, but it doesn't appear to be the sole or even major reason.

Bad economy+increased worker efficiency+fewer workers required for a variety of jobs=companies maximizing profits, sitting on piles of cash and not investing. They have no incentive to hire or increase wages.
 
It's my position as well. This isn't a matter of forgetting the month when you started your job. When an investigation is being conducted by the government, you comply to the fullest extent possible.

Just to be clear, are we talking about an investigation being conducted by the government, or the investigation being conducted by Trey Gowdy's House investigative committee?

If it's the latter, then lol. She should flip them the bird on the way in and out of the hearing and start every answer with "Go fuck yourself, Gowdy." It's as much of a legit government investigation as a "do aliens exist?" daytime special.
 
Just to be clear, are we talking about an investigation being conducted by the government, or the investigation being conducted by Trey Gowdy's House investigative committee?

If it's the latter, then lol. She should flip them the bird on the way in and out of the hearing and start every answer with "Go fuck yourself, Gowdy." It's as much of a legit government investigation as a "do aliens exist?" daytime special.

The government of course. Both the State Department and the FBI are involved, as well as the Executive Branch.
 

Metaphoreus

This is semantics, and nothing more
Remember, Remember, the 11th of September.*

*2012, that is.

I don't put any stock in the conspiracy theories about Benghazi, Oblivion.

EDIT: Sorry, brainchild, but I don't like putting more effort into a response than was put into the post I'm responding to. It's a defense against wasting time on trolls.
 

Gotchaye

Member
I don't think this is what he's done at all, and I'm pretty far from republican.

It's not like we've got much detail to go on, but I think there's something to this. The rhetoric here is somewhat different - usually Republicans are annoyed that a little under half of households don't pay any federal income tax - but as policy the effect on people making not much money is pretty minor. Especially if a bunch of people aren't even filing anymore, presumably we're losing a bunch of the tax credits that right now keep a lot of people's income tax low. Probably a few more households pay no income tax under Trump's plan, but not a huge number. Mostly it's a tax cut for people making lots of money.

There are only two things about it that really strike me as weird for a Republican plan. It's much less aggressive about cutting taxes on capital gains, although it still cuts them. And Trump's just totally unconcerned with whether the math adds up so the magnitude of the cuts is pretty large all around, whereas most Republican proposals try to make it so that it's at least possible that the policy won't generate vastly more debt.
 

Oblivion

Fetishing muscular manly men in skintight hosery
I don't put any stock in the conspiracy theories about Benghazi, Oblivion.

So you care about the lies Hillary committed regarding the e-mail scandal, but somehow don't care about her lies regarding her role in killing Ambassador Stevens (which are most likely related to said lies regarding the e-mails)?
 

Metaphoreus

This is semantics, and nothing more
So you care about the lies Hillary committed regarding the e-mail scandal, but somehow don't care about her lies regarding her role in killing Ambassador Stevens (which are most likely related to said lies regarding the e-mails)?

Make a serious argument if you have one, Oblivion. Spare me this "everyone who disagrees with me only does so because they're crazy conspiracy-theory nutjobs" garbage.

Your concern with her string of lies concerns me.

See above.

Let's try having discussions in which each participant argues for whatever it is he or she believes, rather than merely sneering at people who express different beliefs.
 

Oblivion

Fetishing muscular manly men in skintight hosery
Make a serious argument if you have one, Oblivion. Spare me this "everyone who disagrees with me only does so because they're crazy conspiracy-theory nutjobs" garbage.

I'm just messin' with ya, Metaman.

I know you're not part of the Benghazi-brigade, but let's not pretend this e-mail thing has even an iota more worth of legitimacy now.
 
Make a serious argument if you have one, Oblivion. Spare me this "everyone who disagrees with me only does so because they're crazy conspiracy-theory nutjobs" garbage.



See above.

Let's try having discussions in which each participant argues for whatever it is he or she believes, rather than merely sneering at people who express different beliefs.

When this e-mail nonsense actually has some meat on the bones, I'll be sure to do that.
 
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