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PoliGAF 2016 |OT10| Jill Stein Inflatable Love Doll

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Bowdz

Member
whyamihere said:
Clinton is to give a speech to Millennials on Monday in Philly.
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"So what's up with this PS4 Pro not offering 4k Blu Ray playback? Look, when I'm at home with Bill, we like to relax by watching TFA on our 4k TV. As President, I'll fix this. Also, don't get me started on headphone jacks..."
 
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balladofwindfishes

Member
Grief.exe said:
Wikileaks will likely time a dump as well.
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I really doubt he has anything. The way he's been acting the last few months since the DNC leaks has been "PAY ATTENTION TO ME, PLS, LOOK I'M RELEVANT"

Maybe some more random DNC party drama, but nothing that's directly related to Hillary or matters at all to her campaign.
 
H

Hopfrog

Member
whyamihere said:
Clinton is to give a speech to Millennials on Monday in Philly.
Click to expand...

tumblr_inline_nimszn3Xft1t98at1.gif
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
CsbTE_7VYAA4I68.png


I like how NeoNazis so completely control the Republican narratives that only 24% of Republicans thought Hillary would live even before she got sick for three days, lol.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Bowdz said:
"So what's up with this PS4 Pro not offering 4k Blu Ray playback? Look, when I'm at home with Bill, we like to relax by watching TFA on our 4k TV. As President, I'll fix this. Also, don't get me started on headphone jacks..."
Click to expand...
She's been reading GAF. She has the past six months of gaming side memorized.

"When Trump says he'll make America great again, that's about as trustworthy as the ad campaign for No Man's Sky."
 
X

Xis

Member
Aaron Strife said:
She's been reading GAF. She has the past six months of gaming side memorized.

"When Trump says he'll make America great again, that's about as trustworthy as the ad campaign for No Man's Sky."
Click to expand...


I don't know how much the rest of you know about global politics (I'm an expert)...
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
Aaron Strife said:
She's been reading GAF. She has the past six months of gaming side memorized.

"When Trump says he'll make America great again, that's about as trustworthy as the ad campaign for No Man's Sky."
Click to expand...

"Trump's plan for ISIS is like the NX: It's a secret that no one can make heads or tails of."
 
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nature boy

Member
whyamihere said:
(Are you mocking me?)

It's not that I don't take them seriously, it's just that using one landline-only poll that causes your model in CO to crash seems not great?
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Not mocking, just tired of the 538 analysis of pollsters and the amount of models predicting the election. Plus their own unskewing with their adjusted crap of each pollster. It becomes too toxic trying to figure it out and when you don't you just accept it because it's 538 and Nate Silver.

Both Wang and Rothschild are far more balanced and far less clickbaity, and ultimately more sane.


Nick Gourevitch is also providing interesting info on polling.
 
R

royalan

Member
Aaron Strife said:
She's been reading GAF. She has the past six months of gaming side memorized.

"When Trump says he'll make America great again, that's about as trustworthy as the ad campaign for No Man's Sky."
Click to expand...

"Donald Trump's plans for America's are a lot like Nintendo's plans for the NX: unnecessarily secretive, likely underwhelming, and pearl white."
 
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banefirelord

Banned
Bowdz said:
"So what's up with this PS4 Pro not offering 4k Blu Ray playback? Look, when I'm at home with Bill, we like to relax by watching TFA on our 4k TV. As President, I'll fix this. Also, don't get me started on headphone jacks..."
Click to expand...
real talk: if Hillary dumps on the headphone jack shit I will volunteer for phonebanking...which, knowing how comfortable I am with talking on the phone, might actually make me a liability.
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
nature boy said:
Not mocking, just tired of the 538 analysis of pollsters and the amount of models predicting the election. Plus their own unskewing with their adjusted crap of each pollster. It becomes too toxic trying to figure it out and when you don't you just accept it because it's 538 and Nate Silver.

Both Wang and Rothschild are far more balanced and far less clickbaity, and ultimately more sane.


Nick Gourevitch is also providing interesting info on polling.
Click to expand...

Ah, cool, wasn't sure.
 
TheLaughingStock

TheLaughingStock

Member
whyamihere said:
Clinton is to give a speech to Millennials on Monday in Philly.
Click to expand...


https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/independent-voters-are-overrated/

My commentary isn't necessarily directed at you, but what would be the point of a big push with outreach focus on this group? She needs more independents if Republicans come home or she can continue with the status quo approach of winning without (I'm assuming) liberal millennials if Republicans remain salty that Trump won.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
BlastProcessing said:
Sanders did cross a line when he forcefully and repeatedly said that Clinton was not qualified to be President. Really hard to walk that one back.
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Hillary Clinton said:
I think that I have a lifetime of experience that I will bring to the White House. I know Senator McCain has a lifetime of experience to the White House. And Senator Obama has a speech he gave in 2002.
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He also put out a press release accusing Clinton of money laundering.
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That's not unfair. Clinton raised money for her own campaign from state party coffers, which, while not technically against the rules, was a massive subversion of them.

The rule is (and I would argue that this is a rule that both Clinton and Obama followed in 2008) you don't say anything that would keep you from supporting your opponent if you lose.
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Are you really inviting me to dig the archives for shitty things Clinton said in '08? Because boy oh boy are there lots of them.

That combined with the fact that Sanders actively questioned and undercut the validity of the election
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Quite fairly, as we later found out.

and I think he did provide a ton of cover for Trump.
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Again, only as much as any other Democratic challenger would have done. Clinton implicitly called Obama unqualified in 2008. The charge that Clinton was benefiting her campaign through local state parties was true and absolutely needed to be called out. The DNC was consistently biased towards the Clinton campaign to the point the DNC chair had to resign as a result.

Sanders did not do anything that any other Democratic challenger would not have done. Moreover, and more importantly at that, even if he did, enough of his supporters a) think he didn't, and b) are shaky about Clinton, that bringing attention to it does you no good anyway. So even if you think I'm wrong... why go on about it? What did it do? You need them millenials, man.

You seem to be a great person to ask about this. I have seen it argued that Trump's maternity leave plan would actually be a net negative for women because it doesn't offer paternity leave as well. The thinking being that employers would have a clear incentive to hire men over women. This would lower women's employment opportunities and wages.

Do you think it's possible for a poorly considered maternity leave plan to have such drastic knock on effects?
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I don't think so? I'm not an expert on unemployment insurance in the US and it varies state by state so generalizations might not always hold true, but usually the unemployment insurance is paid by the state, I think, with contributions from employers that are effectively just a tax. If every single company co-ordinated and agreed not to hire women, then the state would have to pay out unemployment insurance less, and so presumably would be able to decrease contributions; but I don't think that's a realistic picture. As is, states will levy from companies however much they need to fund insurance, which depends on who companies on aggregate hire and is unlikely to be heavily influenced by any individual company, so you get the free-rider problem, only it isn't a problem here!
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
tbh I imagine Clinton would have had similar problems with millennials in 08. Perhaps even more so as the Iraqi War was still ongoing and probably would have felt more personal.
 
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Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
That poll is worrying; AR/SC, Fox's pollster, has performed well this cycle. Obviously one poll by itself is not indicative and margin of error etc., but this is definitely a low-point for the Clinton campaign. She would not be winning the Senate on those numbers.
 
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Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
Aaron Strife said:
tbh I imagine Clinton would have had similar problems with millennials in 08. Perhaps even more so as the Iraqi War was still ongoing and probably would have felt more personal.
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I agree. Best candidate won in 2008 (although I guess benefit of hindsight and all that, easier to say that now).
 
R

royalan

Member
AntraxSuicide said:
Just one? Trump's going to keep running circles around her with his far superior and more frequent rallies.
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When people say that Hillary's isn't doing enough, they don't mean more rallies.

She needs to diversify how she's campaigning, because the groups she's struggling with the most within her base are the ones most likely to not be paying attention to her rallies.

At the risk of being crude, Hillary's doing a lot of white working class style campaigning right now.

Hillary needs to go to her voters. Do black podcasts, go on the Breakfast Club again. Long form interviews with Oprah, do a tech interview with some publication on learning how to be smarter about technology. Invite Katy Perry to "grill" her on her podcast. Obama knew this.

But rally/press conference/late night is not reaching the people she needs to reach.
 
B

Boke1879

Member
royalan said:
When people say that Hillary's isn't doing enough, they don't mean more rallies.

She needs to diversify how she's campaigning, because the groups she's struggling with the most within her base are the ones most likely to not be paying attention to her rallies.

At the risk of being crude, Hillary's doing a lot of white working class style campaigning right now.

Hillary needs to go to her voters. Do black podcasts, go on the Breakfast Club again. Long form interviews with Oprah, do a tech interview with some publication on learning how to be smarter about technology. Invite Katy Perry to "grill" her on her podcast. Obama knew this.

But rally/press conference/late night is not reaching the people she needs to reach.
Click to expand...

I think we are seeing a little bit of that. It's good she was on the Tom Joyner Morning Show. This even Monday is good as well.

I agree. Do the Breakfast Club again. Shit like that makes a difference.
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
Nick Gourevitch has a good tweet storm on public polling versus internal campaign polling.

‏@nickgourevitch
1: Likely voter screens represent antiquated thinking about polling. They sort the electorate into just two groups -- likely and unlikely...

‏@nickgourevitch
2: In this world, 100% of likely voters will vote on Election Day. 0% of unlikely voters will vote.

‏@nickgourevitch
3: But that is not how the world works. There is a continuum from 0% to 100%. Some are 25%, some are 50%, etc.

‏@nickgourevitch
4: Most private campaign pollsters attempt to model this using turnout scores on voter files (every voter given a vote likelihood score)

@nickgourevitch
5: If you aren't using a voter file you could at least model this in some other way, using your screening questions to assign likelihoods

@nickgourevitch
6: Anyway, some unlikely voters will vote and some likely voters won't. Happens every election and this is a fact that has been proven.

‏@nickgourevitch
7: DISCLAIMER: This is not meant to try to unskew any current polls. Would be just as true if likely voter screens were helping Clinton.
Click to expand...
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
My one goal for her for the millennial speech is: just talk policy shit. Don't make any Star Wars jokes. Don't use any memes. Don't intimate you listen to Kanye West. Don't make a Pokemon Go reference. Literally, do absolutely nothing whatsoever other than talk policy. You're not Obama, you're a policy wonk, and people can definitely love that, if you play it straight and don't try to be something you're not.
 
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