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PoliGAF 2016 |OT10| Jill Stein Inflatable Love Doll

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H

Holmes

Member
ballad, were you that guy in the Pokemon XY thread years ago that cloned a Japanese 6 IV Ditto and gave them out? Or am I thinking of someone else?
 
C

Crisco

Banned
I really wish Hillary was half the ruthless corrupt criminal the GOP describes her as so she'd order a damn hit on Andrea Mitchell.
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
Regarding polls...


4 years ago I said landline polls should largely be ignored. Models shouldn't even bother with them. They're useless and, dare I say, not scientific polling!

This isn't unskewing. I don't believe they cross the threshold that a poll requires...that is being a truly random sample. It's not.



In separate news, I personally don't understand the argument for poll shifting. In a highly partisan electorate, what could cause Hillary to go from, say +8 to -2 or whatever? This does not make any rational sense. People are not switching their votes (Hill to Trump that is).

The only things that could change it are:

1. different electorate makeup

2. some hillary voters moving to Gary Johnson because Hillary is viewed as "safe."

For the latter, this will auto-correct plus I think when it actually comes time to vote, people wake up. Plus, people like voting for the winner, not some 3rd party loser.


For the former, I have seen no real plausible argument for it. I'm not talking about just a different electorate from 2012 but one from the polls just 3 weeks ago. Because people are NOT SHIFTING VOTES FROM HILLARY TO TRUMP. It's just not happening.

At the end of the day, the question still remains the same. What will the electorate look like? Obama's or not? And the real question is youth turnout. I believe enough of them will turnout in swing states that Trump is sitting dead (and the losses are offset by higher college educated vote favoring Hillary).

In the primaries, until the end, Trump was mostly overrepresented in the polling and I think this will turn out true on election day, as well (lower educated voters are less likely to vote).

I think Hillary's early voting turnout machine will be formidable compared to the non-existent one of the GOP. They'll get votes that the GOP won't.

So, I'm comfortable right now regarding Hillary's win. And I think once the first debate comes up, you're going to see an "electorate shift" in these polls, again. Response rates, if you will.
 
B

Boke1879

Member
TheLostBigBoss said:
One thing

Im still waiting for the "he is gonna wish he was never born " shit.

Like, now is the time to unleash the floodgates and just attack him
Click to expand...

Don't think she should go overboard on the attacks. Sure you hit him when it's easy as fuck. Like the pastor thing.

But not she needs to focus on her message and what she's going to do as President.
 
E

Emarv

Member
Crisco said:
I really wish Hillary was half the ruthless corrupt criminal the GOP describes her as so she'd order a damn hit on Andrea Mitchell.
Click to expand...

Anytime I hear the conspiracy theory that the Clintons kill all these people I always respond with "Then how in the hell is Anthony Weiner still alive?!"
 
B

balladofwindfishes

Member
TheLostBigBoss said:
One thing

Im still waiting for the "he is gonna wish he was never born " shit.

Like, now is the time to unleash the floodgates and just attack him
Click to expand...

Why?

His favorabilities are at rock bottom. He's basically at his ceiling for votes, of all the polls today, they consistently shown he only took the lead because Hillary went down, not that he shot up.

There's an enthusiasm problem. And I kind of get it. Sunday was scary. I still think about that video and shudder with how pathetic it was to see.

She needs to push that she's full of energy and ready to lead. And that the country is already great, and we can make it even better.

Stay positive. She needs to get her numbers up, not lower Trump's at this point.
 
TheLaughingStock

TheLaughingStock

Member
Crab said:
If we're being as unbiased as possible and willing to consider every avenue, re TheLaughingStock:

- Trump's childcare plan is reasonable. It's not as good as Clinton's, comparatively, but it is better than the status quo, and significantly more generous than quite a large amount of the traditional fiscally-conservative quarter of the Republican party.
- Withdrawing from TPP is the best thing to do if you are genuinely concerned about poorer white-collar workers. Yes, free trade improves the position of the average citizen, but the gains are unevenly distributed and unless there are forceful measures to redistribute, the poorest lose out. Insofar as we judge a society by how it treats its poorest, that makes this a good policy (ceteris paribus).
- His infrastructure plans are good. They're not Clinton good, but same as his childcare plans, they're better than much of the rest of the Republican party.
- There are elements of his veteran plan that are good.

I think that's it. I welcome anyone else to play the Find-Trump-Policies-That-Aren't-Shit game, though.
Click to expand...

There's also big deals like his tax plan. I'm assuming if implemented for a period of time rather than indefinitely, then Democrats would extend them for most groups like the Bush tax cuts down the road. Additionally, there could be movement on CEO pay. I would prefer a broadening to perverse executive compensation, but that's fine.

In any event, a lot of what people don't like will be stonewalled. Look at Obama and his grand bargain proposal. That was huge. A lot of good has happened over the last 7+ years.
 
S

Spoiled Milk

Banned
Crisco said:
I really wish Hillary was half the ruthless corrupt criminal the GOP describes her as so she'd order a damn hit on Andrea Mitchell.
Click to expand...

W1CKfRx.gif


yeah lol kill em all lol whos side do they think theyre on lol
 
Z

Zukkoyaki

Member
Plinko said:
Same poll last month: Hillary +11
Click to expand...
It was also conducted less than a week after the convention. After all of the crap this week it's good to know she still has the lead there. We also saw a landline only Michigan poll that her +6. She's still holding it.
 
E

Emarv

Member
royalan said:
???
Click to expand...

Just her demeanor and how brief it was. Didn't have a good answer for her lack of informing Kaine and the rest was just about her overall lack of transparency. Just didn't look comfortable to me, the way she has been previously with the press.

Joeytj said:
She knew nobody would give AF about anything other than "pneumonia!"

It's over, right? Tried to catch a piece of it.
Click to expand...

yeah, it was really short.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Also, where Clinton led among black voters 85%-2% over Trump in August, that is now 74%-2%, with the poll showing some support migrating to Johnson and Stein and the undecided number growing from 10% to 14% -- a change which could spell trouble in a voting bloc that gave 95% of its support to President Barack Obama in 2012.
Click to expand...

This right here? A real problem.
Honest and trustworthy:

Trump 37
Clinton 30
Click to expand...

Also, a real problem.
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
Plinko said:
Same poll last month: Hillary +11
Click to expand...

Trump is at 35% in this new, tightening poll.

Trump cannot win if he cannot surpass 40% in any of their polls.


This is all about faux undecideds.


Look. Trump is bigoted, sexist, white nationalist. People have already made up their mind on him. Either you're voting for him or you're not.

With Hillary, there's a lot of people who don't want to vote for him but when push comes to shove, they'll hold their nose and do it because the alternative is really fucking bad.

That's what I'm reading this whole election.

Plinko said:
This right here? A real problem.


Also, a real problem.
Click to expand...
Click to expand...

No, it's not because it won't hold.
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
Zukkoyaki said:
It was also conducted less than a week after the convention. After all of the crap this week it's good to know she still has the lead there. We also saw a landline only Michigan poll that her +6. She's still holding it.
Click to expand...

Not to be That Guy, but this poll only has a a sample of 400. Still something to note, but the MoE is going to be very high.
 
D

Debirudog

Member
I agree there's almost no point attacking Trump. She definitely needs to make her case (even though it's pretty apparent to us why she's a hell lot more qualified). I think if she continues where she left of before her illness, she would be mostly fine.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Black Mamba said:
Trump is at 35% in this new, tightening poll.

Trump cannot win if he cannot surpass 40% in any of their polls.


This is all about faux undecideds.


Look. Trump is bigoted, sexist, white nationalist. People have already made up their mind on him. Either you're voting for him or you're not.

With Hillary, there's a lot of people who don't want to vote for him but when push comes to shove, they'll hold their nose and do it because the alternative is really fucking bad.

That's what I'm reading this whole election.
Click to expand...

True. Including Johnson and Stein damages Hillary in almost every poll I've seen.

This is where the debates are absolutely crucial. Having just the two of them onstage is going to be colossal. If she can differentiate herself as professional, honest, kind, and caring, it's going to go a LONG way in influencing the "undecided" voters to move back from the Johnson/Stein group.

Black Mamba said:
No, it's not because it won't hold.
Click to expand...

This kind of attitude is toxic. Maybe the percentages won't hold, but if Hillary doesn't do much to win back that 10-12% of minority voters and instead they stay home, it's over. People need to stop acting like the only option is voting for Hillary or Trump. People will just stay home and not bother, and that will cost her the election.
 
R

royalan

Member
DontBeThatGuy said:
She did look a little grumpy, I think after the 3rd health question or whatever, but she did come across very well when talking about feeling like she could power through it, and not wanting to miss the 9/11 memorial under any circumstance.
Click to expand...

Ah, to be expected.

The way to make the press move on is to keep doing these.
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
Plinko said:
True. Including Johnson and Stein damages Hillary in almost every poll I've seen.

This is where the debates are absolutely crucial. Having just the two of them onstage is going to be colossal. If she can differentiate herself as professional, honest, kind, and caring, it's going to go a LONG way in influencing the "undecided" voters to move back from the Johnson/Stein group.
Click to expand...

Exactly!

When there's no 3rd party option with the debates, Hillary just has to look Presidential compared to a buffoon.

Once people see that, their "undecidedness' will move back. This is what we saw post convention. "Hey, Hillary really isn't that bad. And the alternative is Trump, so sure, I'll go Hillary." These last few weeks they've gone "eh...yeah, I'm still iffy on Hillary. Hm, maybe protest vote?"

The voters are stupid. But, somehow, they are rational in terms of how they vote in Presidential elections, which is why 3rd partiers die on election day.

Yeah, she's hit Trump enough. We get it. You're not Trump. She needs to make the case for herself and her policies.
Click to expand...

I somewhat agree. I think now it's time to be pushing yourself now that you established Trump as dogshit.
 
R

RustyNails

Member
I'm so glad Hillary did not attack Trump during the presser (maybe that's why she seemed subdued??). It was a nice short call to clear up any remaining questions about the healthgate. This is likely a Clinton "reset".
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Black Mamba said:
Exactly!

When there's no 3rd party option with the debates, Hillary just has to look Presidential compared to a buffoon.

Once people see that, their "undecidedness' will move back. This is what we saw post convention. "Hey, Hillary really isn't that bad. And the alternative is Trump, so sure, I'll go Hillary." These last few weeks they've gone "eh...yeah, I'm still iffy on Hillary. Hm, maybe protest vote?"

The voters are stupid. But, somehow, they are rational in terms of how they vote in Presidential elections, which is why 3rd partiers die on election day.



I somewhat agree. I think now it's time to be pushing yourself now that you established Trump as dogshit.
Click to expand...

Somebody posted that graph earlier about polling swings in the last election, and it was blatantly obvious the debates (even the VP one, surprisingly) had a major effect.

whyamihere said:
Tapper: Does not think that was a press conference!

https://twitter.com/brianstelter/status/776519858036940800
Click to expand...


The media bias in this election is total BS. I'm starting to think there is money involved here. It is beyond frustrating.
 
D

DontBeThatGuy

Member
Plinko said:
This right here? A real problem.
Click to expand...

Yep. I could be wrong, but there seems to be plenty of black folks out there getting the word out about how much they don't like her(or feel let down in general by democrats). For example: Kaeprenick essentially said she should be in prison during that first interview of his. That shit right there can definitely become a problem.
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
Plinko said:
Somebody posted that graph earlier about polling swings in the last election, and it was blatantly obvious the debates (even the VP one, surprisingly) had a major effect.




The media bias in this election is total BS. I'm starting to think there is money involved here. It is beyond frustrating.
Click to expand...

Depends on how you define effects. Polling effects? yes. Actually election day results, I don't think so.

It changed response rates, not people's minds.

This is the problem with polling for candidates. Response rates vary depending on news cycles. After debate 1, everyone talked about how Obama lost and sucked, so Obama supporters weren't answering as many surveys and it looked like Romney went up. But in reality, I don't believe he did.

I believe the elections are generally over after the conventions and the polling is merely capturing the mood of the voters that day.

Now, I'll add a caveat. Trump is such a fucking clown that the debate COULD hurt him.
 
T

tbm24

Member
whyamihere said:
Tapper: Does not think that was a press conference!

https://twitter.com/brianstelter/status/776519858036940800
Click to expand...
Seeing that live was a real downer. After having to listen to CNN this week and seeing them visibly upset she didn't tell them she was sick, while at the same time ending every Trump segment effectively throwing their hands in the air and laughing, she will never be able to win with them. I don't blame her for not wanting to try.

Hilary puts out a book on policy, I give it an hour before another anchor complains that this election is not about policy.
 
J

johnsmith

remember me
I swear to god the keepin' it 1600 guys are reading this thread.

"We've reached peak bedwetting"


Btw bedwetting should be the new diablos.
 
R

royalan

Member
DontBeThatGuy said:
Yep. I could be wrong, but there seems to be plenty of black folks out there getting the word out about how much they don't like her(or feel let down in general by democrats). For example: Kaeprenick essentially said she should be in prison during that first interview of his. That shit right there can definitely become a problem.
Click to expand...

It's definitely been an issue with the youth outreach I do here in Philly. The vibe is overwhelmingly "fuck em, they're both terrible." I think that's where a good bit of my chicken littling is coming from right now.

She needs to target black youth. They're her harshest critics right now that she can still win over, and i truly believe that appeals to them will trickle up. But this group is not paying attention to her rallies or pressers.
 
D

Dierce

Member
DontBeThatGuy said:
Yep. I could be wrong, but there seems to be plenty of black folks out there getting the word out about how much they don't like her(or feel let down in general by democrats). For example: Kaeprenick essentially said she should be in prison during that first interview of his. That shit right there can definitely become a problem.
Click to expand...

This is definitely what is going on. This is a type of psychological deception that was created by the only intelligent (but evil) individual in orange turd's campaign, Bannon.

By calling Clinton every bad word that rightfully applies to turd himself they effectively made it imposible for her to defend herself without attacking back (something which she initially said she wouldn't do) while making sure that a fraction of minorities who support her also start to doubt her.

Orange turd is just too stupid to come up with a strategy such as this and Clinton's campaign has been reactionary so far this election, letting orange turd make the first move. In the end, Bannon was able to accomplish what he wanted all along. To have those accusations stick to Clinton and have her swing mud back at orange turd and at this point of the game, that just doesn't work.
 
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