Basileus777
Member
Yes, it was not clear at all that it was fictional. Remember that this is Trump.
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PoliGAF 2016 |OT10| Jill Stein Inflatable Love Doll
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Yes, it was not clear at all that it was fictional. Remember that this is Trump.
Indeed. I mean he is already praising Obama on deportation so it's clear not much will change at all.
Poodlestrike
Banned
That's actually kind of a Bush-era initiative, updating the border with high-tech. It was a dismal failure. Something on the order of a billion dollars poured into it, and when completed, the system just would not stop setting off false alarms.
FDR seems like a borderline case but well fuck Hitler.
BenjaminBirdie
Banned
Nazgul_Hunter
Member
But please forget that I said avoiding STDs was my own personal Vietnam, that I've boasted about adultery and I've been married 3 times.
Seconded.
And of course, Trump comments on Huma/Weiner:
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/30/nyregion/anthony-weiner-sexting-huma-abedin.html?ref=politics&_r=1
That makes me think Trump really didn't like Weiner - to praise a Clinton subordinate even a bit makes me think it was personal. Maybe he tried to sext Ivanka or something.
I would mostly say don't worry so much about individual polls
Given the R lean of Emerson, those polls seem fine to me. All robopolls are landlines only, and we know robopolls show a slight depression in Clinton's lead. Also, their LV screen and weighting against 2012 election results aren't great, I agree, since both rely on self-reported votes in 2012.
However, all of that stuff is already taken into account in the 538 bias/accuracy rankings, so trying to pull it out individually seems unproductive. The whole point of the 538 poll-ranking system (which I do think is very good) is that you don't have to try to figure out how many points of bias a particular methodology choice introduces, which is nearly impossible. Just figure out how much the poll is biased relative to the polling center of gravity and then throw it into the mix.
All polls are going to have methodological choices which are better or worse than others, many of which won't even be visible to us. For example, the Emerson College Poll is RUN BY A BUNCH OF COLLEGE STUDENTS. So stop trying to do process-based critiques and just do a results-based critique, it's a lot easier.
538's model includes a much stronger reversion to the mean component as well as a lot of projection off of national trends -- I'm pretty sure the Upshot ignores national polls and I am definitely sure that PEC does. Since there's currently a gap between national polls and state polls, it's creating a gap between the aggregators, which is exacerbated by 538's pessimistic assumption that things will mostly go back to normal by November.
I tend to think 538 is probably fine to project off national trends (although the gap is clearly worrying), but wrong to assume so much reversion to the mean. But I guess we'll see!
The 538 podcasts seem to indicate that Nate is starting to agree with the assertion that things may not regress to the mean - but after getting burned for making qualitative assessments on the GOP primary, I think part of this year is letting the model that he has work and see how close it is to the reality, and then make the necessary changes after the fact. Which makes sense to me, at least. We may all suspect that this year is different, but we humans are notorious at doing that a lot and being wrong.
User 463088
Banned
This isn't necessarily a critique of his model, but Nate is still annoying as fuck this cycle. His latest tweet "OMG if this becomes a 2 point race WHO KNOWS!?" is click bate at best, and idiotic at worst.
Also, I don't give a fuck who Wiener sends wiener shots to but not with a kid in the room you fucking pervert. Fuck.
Also, I don't give a fuck who Wiener sends wiener shots to but not with a kid in the room you fucking pervert. Fuck.
For the past 15 months, Trump has been building himself up as a bright guy with good brain - the only one who can solve all of the country's problems; after loudly boasting about this, it's a bit late for his team to attempt any sort of expectations-setting. He's kinda screwed.
nature boy
Member
He's going to be exhausted if he doesn't at least simulate a debate.
But since he's a lazy mofo, he won't.
BenjaminBirdie
Banned
kfc aint gonna eat itself
Debates are going to hit Trump hard cause he will have to explain and detail shit. That is worse case scenario for him
User 463088
Banned
I do find it odd he won't do at least one mock debate to prepare. Most of these debates should be centered around policy and there will be follow up questions.
He's going to look like a damn fool trying to explain himself. I hope to GOD he doesn't think he can pull that primary shit here.
He's going to look like a damn fool trying to explain himself. I hope to GOD he doesn't think he can pull that primary shit here.
Hell if I know. This is some next level shit.
Cesare Borgia
Banned
Bush surrounded himself with war hawks and got railroaded, but we can't ignore the reality that he was a willing participant. Kinda goes back to the idea that the vast majority of presidents aren't prepared to be president, especially when it comes to foreign policy. HW Bush, Eisenhower and Nixon are major exceptions in modern history.
Obama was railroaded by the generals on Afghanistan. Clinton had a series of foreign policy blunders in his first term. It comes with the territory. But eventually the president grows into the job and starts saying "no" more often. This has been very apparent during Obama's second term, and it became clear during W's second term once he shut Cheney out.
Obama was railroaded by the generals on Afghanistan. Clinton had a series of foreign policy blunders in his first term. It comes with the territory. But eventually the president grows into the job and starts saying "no" more often. This has been very apparent during Obama's second term, and it became clear during W's second term once he shut Cheney out.
User 463088
Banned
Why is there a T on the bed? And that pickle looks WAY too satisfied.
The article I read was exactly what I expected. He is sitting with Ailes and Guiliani and thinking up "zingers". This is what he's going to do, throw as many clever applause lines out as he can (even though the audience can't clap). This is how he thinks and how he thinks he'll win.
My only concern is that he will lie so many times that Hillary will be consumed with fact checking.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
And of course, Trump comments on Huma/Weiner:
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/30/nyregion/anthony-weiner-sexting-huma-abedin.html?ref=politics&_r=1
I mean, he HAS to see the irony here, right? Is he seriously implying that Weiner being close to Clinton is worse than Manafort's ties to his campaign?
Poodlestrike
Banned
It's the Trump-Signal, I think. Though why it's being projected from the moon I can't say.
Basileus777
Member
New Monmouth national poll. Likely Voters
Clinton 46%
Trump 39%
Gary Johnson 7%
Jill Stein 2%
Hillary's lead is down from their last poll but they just switched to LV so you can't directly establish a trend there.
Clinton 46%
Trump 39%
Gary Johnson 7%
Jill Stein 2%
Hillary's lead is down from their last poll but they just switched to LV so you can't directly establish a trend there.
Spoiled Milk
Banned
....Adam, are you colorblind?
Goddammit lol
I was gonna try to make a "height" joke with the digital wall too.
"The wall just grew 10 megabytes!" probably works too, because it would jive with Donald's ignorance of technology
whyamihere
Banned
Ah, okay. Yeah, I think we're going to have to see what happens going forward, because the LV screens have helped in some pollsters and hurts her in others. Still, 7 points is... a lot!
RustyNails
Member
This is where you hope the moderator actually does their damn job.
But there will be moments where the candidates attack each other no doubt. But there will be substantive policy questions and I think Trump will flop hard on that.
People watching these debates are looking for policy. Not a roast imo.
Hydrophobic
Member
Pretty sure that Pepe represents that because Clinton is getting the wallstreet money she must have some incredibly rare Pepes.
I have no idea. Maybe? That seems like the most reasonable guess.
So maybe The Running Man is a future documentary that was sent back through time to warn us of what will happen if Trump is elected?
edit: This film is set in 2017
Great Scott!
nature boy
Member
Landslide if that holds up.
I thought that's what Escape From NY was
Beer Monkey
Member
He's adult ADHD, I've lived with it my whole life and it's really easy to spot. He can't do a mock debate for 2.5 hours, it would drive him nuts. It requires more voluntary focus than he is capable of.
Beer Monkey
Member
What the fuck is the pickle in a jar doing there?
Smart people are pickle truthers.
Jimmy Kimmel had Hillary open a jar of pickles to show her strength. Guess how the alt-right reacted?
I just learned about rare Pepes the other day. Blew my mind. What do you do with a rare Pepe? You can't post it because then it won't be rare anymore.
But they're not figments! THEY ARE CLEARLY PHYSICALLY PRESENT
Escape From NY is set in 1997, so maybe it was a future documentary warning us about something else.
One thing I think is interesting is that while Bush's first term was a series of foreign policy disasters, his second term, while listless in Iraq, was more characterized by domestic policy scandal. Incompetent government exposed by Katrina, the US Attorney scandal, and then ultimately just tapping out for the last 6 months and letting Paulson be president (to be fair, this last one isn't a scandal, just another measure of his inability to do the job 8 years later). Either he never learned to say no to Rove the way he did to Cheney, or that side of things always came directly from him.
I remember in the summer of 2000, whenever anyone pointed out Bush's really apparent lack of substance, the basic comeback was always "Presidents can have good advisers." Nobody thought enough about the implications for having bad ones.
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