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PoliGAF 2016 |OT11| Well this is exciting
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makingmusic476
Member
I'm looking at vote totals from 2012, and I'm only just realizing how many more people voted for the Presidency than voted for Congressional offices. Obama got ~6 million more votes than Congressional Democrats did across all house races. Romney got nearly 3 million more than Rs did across the board.
No wonder Dems are always fucked. I had thought it was primarily a midterms issue.
No wonder Dems are always fucked. I had thought it was primarily a midterms issue.
Personally, I think there is no possible way for Hillary to lose Colorado due to demographic changes.
I'm very much doubting these polls reflect the reality in this respect.
Cesare Borgia
Banned
I'd agree but I think a lot of the differences stem from who the candidate is, and enthusiasm on the ground (grassroots, voters, campaign, etc).
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Look at the Hispanic numbers I just posted. The campaign is not doing a good job of courting Hispanic voters at this point.
User 463088
Banned
No. Because it wasn't.
Come on people. It's 10:30 on a Sunday. Go.....have a cocktail. Go play with children in nature. Do something other than complain about Lyin' Dyin' Crooked Pneumonia based Clinton and her campaign. You'll feel better.
So out of the three CO polls we've gotten this week they've been +7 +2 +1
Probably safe to think Clinton is ahead but not by as much as we would like. Regardless, I very much have my doubts that she is not going to win it. Trump hasn't led in CO in a single proper poll all year.
Probably safe to think Clinton is ahead but not by as much as we would like. Regardless, I very much have my doubts that she is not going to win it. Trump hasn't led in CO in a single proper poll all year.
nature boy
Member
It's concerning because you're facing a campaign that literally has no ads and a poor ground game/analytics.
Imagine if they did.
Imagine if they did.
Finale Fireworker
Member
Guys should I take this cyanide pill now or wait until Monday or what.
User 463088
Banned
Or, OR the other option is that YouGov's methodology has a problem in finding her support among Hispanic voters! This was true in the primaries, and there is ample evidence to suggest that it is true now.
The Latino Decisions poll from earlier in the moth showed her getting 72/17 in Colorado among Hispanic voters. Which, by the way, was her 2nd best state among Latino voters. So, like, put it in the pile, whatever, but there's no reason to question an entire strategy over one poll.
Unless you're Nate Silver, of course.
I think polling is going to shift quite dramatically after the first debates.
Currently, third parties are still soaking up a large percentage of undecided voters. Historically, these drop off massively around the first debates as undecideds tend to start paying attention at that point.
Since we have two candidates with record level unfavorables and we have record level undecided at this point, Hillary should be coming out well after this debate.
I wouldn't be too worried until we see the polls at the first week of October.
Currently, third parties are still soaking up a large percentage of undecided voters. Historically, these drop off massively around the first debates as undecideds tend to start paying attention at that point.
Since we have two candidates with record level unfavorables and we have record level undecided at this point, Hillary should be coming out well after this debate.
I wouldn't be too worried until we see the polls at the first week of October.
Its two polls though. Her RCP polling average is down to +2.5
I'm gonna guess that the entire strategy would be different.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
.
This will help. If Hillary's team thought it wasn't a mistake, my guess is they wouldn't be pushing for ads to go back up.
This is fine, but now it's two polls. The odds of two outliers in the same week? It's not a usual occurrence.
Either way, the race is close enough that the debates are going to have a major effect, so none of this matters TOO much.
Not worried. We have the debates tomorrow and assuming all goes well Clinton is hitting the trail again after that going to multiple states. October will be where shit ramps up, we'all be seeing ads and tons of stumping going on.
But today I'm not going to worry about shit. Gonna finish my shift at work and play some games. I'll only worry after tomorrow if Clinton faints on stage.
But today I'm not going to worry about shit. Gonna finish my shift at work and play some games. I'll only worry after tomorrow if Clinton faints on stage.
Might as well post all the comments ahead of time while you're at it.
DrForester
Kills Photobucket
Thanks Clinton. Since you pulled out of Colorado, Trump was able to make inroads. A
And now we're a toss up state and I'm going to have to watch ads non-stop for the next month...
And now we're a toss up state and I'm going to have to watch ads non-stop for the next month...
Dominican Power
Member
I can't believe my ears. Someone saying something good about Carly Fiorina?
User 463088
Banned
They were always planning on going back up in October! This was the strategy.
Hahah... Hell, it's fine. Timezones do my head in. The only thing I can remember is that Seattle is 8 hours or 10 hours behind me, depending upon which country I'm in... And that's just because of when Steam deals tick over.
Meh, really like Lovett but who cares about their attitude if they're model is supportable. I find Cohn's arguments more convincing, although the closer we get to Nov the 538 model makes more sense to me in terms of their appreciation for how many undecideds there are (which we see reflected in all the noise lately).
I think there's value in both the Upshot and 538 models.
So damn glad that I don't work tomorrow. Going to be too distracted to think.
I hope we get to start hearing more of Obama's travel plans for October soon. His presence on the trail is going to be a game-changer. The active campaigning of a relatively popular President - one who's held in good esteem particularly among undecideds/swing voters - is something we won't get to see very often in our lifetimes. Trump will soon be effectively campaigning against two opponents.
I hope we get to start hearing more of Obama's travel plans for October soon. His presence on the trail is going to be a game-changer. The active campaigning of a relatively popular President - one who's held in good esteem particularly among undecideds/swing voters - is something we won't get to see very often in our lifetimes. Trump will soon be effectively campaigning against two opponents.
User 463088
Banned
I work for myself, so I just made sure not to schedule anything tomorrow. Then, I get a call telling me I have to be on a stupid conference call from 8-11. Which, whatever, but I don't caaareeeeeee It's debate day. Do these people have no lives that they want to go about things like work on a day as important as tomorrow!? FUCK
I knew this place wouldn't be calm. Just wait until tomorrow night.
RustyNails
Member
Trump sure as fuck is going to bring up that mall shooter. Who turned out to be an LPR from Turkey. I wonder what Hills response is goinf to be.
User 463088
Banned
WHY!? What have you heard? OMG! FUCK.
It really isn't. No ones freaking out.
jack_package_200
Banned
So how long is tomorrow's debate? An hour?
Conway deflecting like a boss on This Week. George points out Politifacts pointing out the huge discrepancy in Trump and Hillary lies, goes right in to talking about Hillary's issues with the truth.
Oh, and now apparently Trump is a "brilliant" debater according to Conway, the best that Newt has ever seen apparently.
Oh, and now apparently Trump is a "brilliant" debater according to Conway, the best that Newt has ever seen apparently.
shinra-bansho
Member
My god. If this is what it was like four years ago I'm astounded you're all still able to access GAF from your padded rooms.
90 minutes with no breaks
90 minutes divided into three 30 minute sections
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
Voters are very strange people!
After the first debate last year it was nuclear
And now Trump should be applauded for being one of the only ones really caring and wanting to deal with issues in the black community.
Glad that I don't watch too many of these Conway interviews as she really gets my blood up.
And they are STILL standing by the "Clinton campaign started birtherism" bullshit.
Glad that I don't watch too many of these Conway interviews as she really gets my blood up.
And they are STILL standing by the "Clinton campaign started birtherism" bullshit.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
OK. I'm ok with that--I just don't get it. I mean, why not keep ads on to keep reminding people? A big lead was lost. It just doesn't make sense to me is all.
DrForester
Kills Photobucket
Chuck Todd really is a joke. Just let a Trump surrogate spout BS for 5 minutes.
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