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[ItWasMeantToBe19]

ABC poll among just black voters:

Hillary: 89
Jill Stein: 3
Gary Johnson: 2
Trump: 2

 

[Joeytj]

ABC poll among just black voters:

Hillary: 89
Jill Stein: 3
Gary Johnson: 2
Trump: 2

He. Stein's in second. Good for her.

 

[kadotsu]

For some reason, looks like WaPo released a new poll at midnight EST?

Hillary: 46
Trump: 44
Johnson: 5
Stein: 1

It would be infuriating if the GOP potential Johnson voters are falling in line with Trump while the hardcore Bros stay with him because of drug legalization.

 

[Debirudog]

Johnson voters might also go to Clinton actually, considering he's the "protest" vote no matter how much it doesn't make sense.

 

[Shambalakan]

Guys, is there any countdown timer for debate?

 

[Wilsongt]

Guys, is there any countdown timer for debate?

Just Google search Doomsday counter. That is all you need for when Trump blows Clinton out of the water at the debate.

Only because he will get nothing but softballs as the entire debate will focus on Clinton's e-mails, and Trump deflecting so hard he'll take out half the audience.

Johnson voters might also go to Clinton actually, considering he's the "protest" vote no matter how much it doesn't make sense.

I thought Jill Hew was the protest vote because Bernie made her the most powerful woman in American politics?

 

[Iolo]

Guys, is there any countdown timer for debate?

 

[Shambalakan]

Just Google search Doomsday counter. That is all you need for when Trump blows Clinton out of the water at the debate.

Only because he will get nothing but softballs as the entire debate will focus on Clinton's e-mails, and Trump deflecting so hard he'll take out half the audience.

lol! I've never seen any US debate in my life, but this one is really different with Trump and things like this. :|

 

[eBay Huckster]

What does this mean

means a polling season that's already full of bizarre wonky bullshit just got even more bizarrely wonky bullshit

I thought Jill Hew was the protest vote because Bernie made her the most powerful woman in American politics?

nope, it's Gary Johnson and Harambe

 

[Iolo]

Real talk. I'm scared shitless and will be for the next 6 weeks. Don't tell Diablos

 

[Mizerman]

Real talk. I'm scared shitless and will be for the next 6 weeks. Don't tell Diablos

He already knows.

 

[BlastProcessing]

Real talk. I'm scared shitless and will be for the next 6 weeks. Don't tell Diablos

Fear just means you're paying attention. It's what you do with it that matters.

 

[cartoon_soldier]

Real talk. I'm scared shitless and will be for the next 6 weeks. Don't tell Diablos

Same. This uneasy feeling they fate never wanted Hillary to be president.

 

[User 463088]

Trump spiking in USC again. Gained 9 points among African American voters in a single day. Because, of course. That's how all this works.

 

[Angry Grimace]

Real talk. I'm scared shitless and will be for the next 6 weeks. Don't tell Diablos

People were declaring Romney president-elect 6 weeks out in 2012 too. It was called "diablosing" even back then.

Honestly watching people go in mere weeks from predicting historic landslides to diablosing is pretty entertaining.

 

[watershed]

Doesn't early voting start super soon? Hillary's machine is about to start rolling, if they are as good as Obama's machine. Didn't early voting strongly swing in his direction in both 08 and 12?

 

[cartoon_soldier]

Doesn't early voting start super soon? Hillary's machine is about to start rolling, if they are as good as Obama's machine. Didn't early voting strongly swing in his direction in both 08 and 12?

Hillary's campaign is nowhere near as good as Obama's.

 

[Crayons]

Real talk. I'm scared shitless and will be for the next 6 weeks. Don't tell Diablos

Half the table at the gaf meet up I went to was diablosing

im omw home now

 

[Plinko]

For some reason, looks like WaPo released a new poll at midnight EST?

Hillary: 46
Trump: 44
Johnson: 5
Stein: 1

Hillary didn't gain or lose anything, Trump gained 3, Johnson lost 4, Stein lost 1.

Debate expectations closer than 2012: 44 expect Clinton to win, 34 expect Trump to win. In 2012, it was 56 Obama, 29 Romney.

Seems perfectly in line with the polarization of our country. Hillary's ground game needs to be on point on election day and get everyone to the polls, because republican voters will be there en masse.

That said...

Nate_Cohn
Last ABC/Post poll had Clinton+10 among RVs with a 5 pt LV penalty.
New ABC/Post has a tie among RVs, with Clinton gaining 2 from LVs. K.

If this is happening in a week, either polling in this country is now much harder to do, or something is incredibly wrong with the methodology.

 

[nature boy]

Polling volatility, folks.

Don't buy such a shift in two weeks.

So La Hillary has a 9 point advantage with white college graduates and is tied/barely ahead? GTFO.

 

[thebloo]

Hillary's campaign is nowhere near as good as Obama's.

Based on what? On a ground game level, it's using the same methods.

 

[fantomena]

Im tired of reading comments sections in Norweegian newspapers when it's about Trumps lies.

Everyone's like: "...but....HILLARY".

 

[cartoon_soldier]

Based on what? On a ground game level, it's using the same methods.

Just look at overall campaign strategy.

No Spanish language ads yet.
Disappearing from the campaign trail for fund raising.
Lackluster small donor fundraising
Lackluster cable surrogate appearances
David Brock is running something for her which has sucked till now.

 

[shinra-bansho]

Did Obama somehow not hold high dollar fundraising. The large cheques just magically rolled in? When was the first Spanish language ad run - who is monitoring Univision and Telemundo and whatever for her first one? Will we pop champagne?

 

[thebloo]

Just look at overall campaign strategy.

No Spanish language ads yet.
Disappearing from the campaign trail for fund raising.
Lackluster small donor fundraising
Lackluster cable surrogate appearances
David Brock is running something for her which has sucked till now.

Some of those are not ground game. And some simply down to Obama being Obama.

Cesare was pretty confident in the ground game operation.

 

[Diablos]

Real talk. I'm scared shitless and will be for the next 6 weeks. Don't tell Diablos

Is this like therapy to some of you people

Half the table at the gaf meet up I went to was diablosing

im omw home now

See above

If this is happening in a week, either polling in this country is now much harder to do, or something is incredibly wrong with the methodology.

Yeah something isn't adding up. Unless maybe those bombings scared people into submitting to the daddy party. Which I doubt.

Suggesting locking her up in an oval room should give things away.

Ohhh yeah.

 

[cartoon_soldier]

 

[thebloo]

They were doing LV screens in June?

 

[Boke1879]

It's unfortunate but that's just how it is

 

[BigAl1992]

That is from the ABC/WaPo polls though, including the most recent one they released, so take it with a grain of salt.

 

[Plinko]

"Uneducated men are sexist. More at 11."

This country

 

[cartoon_soldier]

Romney won that vote by 30 points. Clinton would need to bring that margin down a little bit, around 45 would do.

 

[Diablos]

Holy shit

 

[Y2Kev]

Holy shit

HOLY SHITTTTTTTTT

The realité is that this vote is going to be more concentrated in states she won't win anyway, like Iowa or the south. She needs a larger % of college educated voters to seal away Colorado.

The risk is Nevada where the streets are flowing with "non-college" white people. I do think ground game is actually important in not toooo many places, but Nevada is one of them.

 

[nature boy]

Post the rest, y'all.

 

[cartoon_soldier]

Post the rest, y'all.

Trump getting 80% of non trump primary voters while Clinton getting 74% has a big effect on the gap too. If Clinton can get that to 85% it would be game over.

 

[Plinko]

HOLY SHITTTTTTTTT

The realité is that this vote is going to be more concentrated in states she won't win anyway, like Iowa or the south. She needs a larger % of college educated voters to seal away Colorado.

The risk is Nevada where the streets are flowing with "non-college" white people. I do think ground game is actually important in not toooo many places, but Nevada is one of them.

Which makes Nevada's polling results all the more sensible.

 

[nature boy]

Trump Edges Above Clinton Ahead of First Debate

Donald Trump leads Hillary Clinton by 1 percentage point among likely voters who were polled a few days ahead of the much-anticipated debate between the two presidential candidates. The debate will take place Monday evening.

The ratings for the televised matchup between the two candidates are expected to be at record highs. Two-thirds of registered voters say they expect to watch the debate, with 41 percent saying they are “very likely” to watch it.

n a nationwide poll of 1,712 likely voters taken Sept. 22 through Sept. 24, 39 percent of respondents chose Trump, while while Clinton was the choice for 38 percent. The difference between the two candidates is within the margin of error. The other candidates in the race continue to trail behind the leaders, with Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson at 9 percent and Green Party candidate Jill Stein at 4 percent; 10 percent of respondents say they don’t know or have no opinion.

In a head-to-head matchup without the third-party candidates, Clinton edges out Trump by 2 points among likely voters, 44 percent to 42 percent, within the margin of error.

Among the slightly broader sample of registered voters, Clinton has a 1-point lead over Trump, 37 percent to 36 percent, with Johnson at 9 percent and Stein at 4 percent. Again, the difference between Trump and Clinton is within the margin of error.

WTF, they both dropped to under 40?

 

[thebloo]

Trump Edges Above Clinton Ahead of First Debate




WTF, they both dropped to under 40?

She's up 2 in H2H. 44-42.

 

[Zukkoyaki]

Trump Edges Above Clinton Ahead of First Debate




WTF, they both dropped to under 40?

This weekend has been a case-study in polling volatility and noise hasn't it?

 

[Plinko]

This weekend has been a case-study in polling volatility and noise hasn't it?

Yep. Almost nothing happened this week to cause these swings. This election is, sadly, very much up in the air.

The one concern, though, is that multiple,polls are showing this swing at the exact same time. That is unusual if nothing is causing the swings.

 

[Dierce]

Did that fucking terrorist really damage Clinton's chances? This isn't the first poll to show such a huge shift this week....

 

[NeoXChaos]

stuart stevens ‏@stuartpstevens 8h8 hours ago
stuart stevens Retweeted Gopala Tumuluri
Trump still doing worse than Romney with white voters in ABC/Post poll. Romney won white female college plus women by 6. HRC by 25pt lead.

stuart stevens ‏@stuartpstevens 8h8 hours ago
stuart stevens Retweeted Josh Kraushaar
Odds are Trump has to do better than Romney with either white or non-white voters. He's doing worse with both.stuart stevens added,
Josh Kraushaar @HotlineJosh

stuart stevens ‏@stuartpstevens 8h8 hours ago
stuart stevens Retweeted Will Jordan
No Republican has lost white college educated voters since FDR days. Goldwater won them. Trump is losing.

.

 

[Measley]

Why are so many college-educated white males voting for a fuckhead like Trump?

 

[Shambalakan]

Why do persons like Johnson and Stein participate in election? Serious question.

 

[gutter_trash]

Did that fucking terrorist really damage Clinton's chances? This isn't the first poll to show such a huge shift this week....

flash in the pan, it probably boosted Trump temporarily but it will fizzle out of after the debates

 

[dramatis]

People were declaring Romney president-elect 6 weeks out in 2012 too. It was called "diablosing" even back then.

Honestly watching people go in mere weeks from predicting historic landslides to diablosing is pretty entertaining.

You spent the past few days scared shitless though, don't be mean

 

[Zukkoyaki]

@SamWangPHD It could rain, but it's close enough that if the wind changes by "a lot," it wouldn't. Rain.

Please clap.

Hoooooolly shit! Sam Wang throwing mad shade at Nate Silver!

 

[nature boy]

Donald J. Trump ‏@realDonaldTrump 26m26 minutes ago
Many on the team and staff of Bernie Sanders have been treated badly by the Hillary Clinton campaign - and they like Trump on trade, a lot!

.

 

[cooljeanius]

I had a dream last night that I was on a train ride back to college, and that Nate Cohn was actually someone I knew from it, so I was explaining to him how you guys in PoliGAF like to compare him with Nate Silver... it's weird, because after being awake, I don't even know what he looks like...