Basileus777
Member
They are betting markets, only Nate Silver thinks they are a good way to judge the race.
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PoliGAF 2016 |OT12| The last days of the Republic
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They are betting markets, only Nate Silver thinks they are a good way to judge the race.
Kelly waiting for the all-important Drudge and Breitbart "polls".
I didn't watch the debate for sanity purposes, but watching these clips on MSNBC - holy shit, some of these Trump snorts are out of control. Super distracting.
And he went to some of his worst lies - everyone saw the San Bernardino bombs, he was allowed to get away with that?
I didn't watch the debate for sanity purposes, but watching these clips on MSNBC - holy shit, some of these Trump snorts are out of control. Super distracting.
And he went to some of his worst lies - everyone saw the San Bernardino bombs, he was allowed to get away with that?
Brawndo Addict
Banned
I don't know how some of these people can look their daughters in the face and justify what they're doing.
Aaron Strife
Banned
And she won bigly in opinion polls anyway.
None of Trump's antics are ever going to play to a mass audience.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
There are literally 300 people who bet like $100 total on those betting markets.
I mean, that has to be as good as the USC poll.
Basileus777
Member
Yeah, the whole ghosts of Clinton past angle was a wet fart.
There it is.
I think the Hillary campaign is also betting (and knows) that more Trump leaks are coming, so they figured that Hillary didn't need to get into the mud against Trump tonight, the videos will do it for them. The Bill issues didn't end up mattering and just hurt Trump more.
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
Wish I could compare the yougov polls of the winner but the last one wasn't an insta-poll.
Joe Shlabotnik
Banned
It's not forgotten it's just unconsciously subsumed into the general shitbag impression of Trump now.
That's likely a purposeful thing. I don't think anyone wants to touch that save for maybe Fox News.
Could have been people like me who bought Hillary when she was in the 60s cashing out at the market high.
They were too high. 88% was basically as high as it's going to get till election week.
There is a time post debate poll that shows that 91% of debate watchers thought donald trump won the debate.Kelly may brag about that poll.
Nazgul_Hunter
Member
nobody's said anything on this but there was something seriously weird about how Trump held his mic tonight He was holding it with only two fingers like his tiny hands needed it
Officerrob
Banned
What are the betting markets doing?
Basileus777
Member
Trump literally tricked reporters into covering it.
metalslimer
Member
Yep, just trust that Clinton knows what she is doing. She could have easily went further but there is no need to get that negative in a town hall debate. I think if she had lingered too long it would have looked bad.
Edit: Although I still can't believe that answer on the leak. Her e-mail answer wasn't horrendous, but dear lord at her trying to talk about that leak.
Real talk. Clinton shut down his attack on Bill early on lol. Who even remembers that presser? Story coming out of this will be that Clinton the debate.
Trump is still on audio and video saying that shit. She'll campaign still. Needle doesn't move. More dangerous oppo coming. Trump and the GOP who stand with him are fucked.
Trump is still on audio and video saying that shit. She'll campaign still. Needle doesn't move. More dangerous oppo coming. Trump and the GOP who stand with him are fucked.
sazzy
Member
The press conf wouldn't have happened, and she would've done better
Officerrob
Banned
Trump wins that debate
Moving very marginally towards djt but seriously they already spiked OK Friday.
That's the second time he's pulled that BS on them too. They knew the press wanted no part of that. They were not happy the first time.
Hillary played it absolutely right. The Bill attack was a blip, she looked presidential the whole time, and more damage will be done outside of the debates with all the leaks and attacks from her surrogates.
Alright GAF. I am a broken individual. I was halfway through a bag of chips and a bucket of salsa before the debate even started, and by the end, I was downing powerful corn whiskey mixed with caffeine-free diet coke and just generally feeling bad about America.
I had impressions about the debate. I'm not sure if I still have them because I'm basically just giggling about nothing now and listening to the JSRF soundtrack, but I definitely had them at one point.
First, I zoned out several times during Trump's responses. I assume this is good for Hillary because it probably means that Trump seemed very unfocused some of the time, or something.
Second, I think I was right about Hillary having to tread lightly on the issue of the accusations with Bill. Her response seems like it would basically scrape through without offending very many people. And, she preempted Trump's attack well. But, she also didn't manage to detonate nukes in Trump's face about it. She didn't get totally pulled into it, which is good for her.
Third, what the heck was up with that special prosecutor shit? Good to know you'll be Putin your opposition in jail for stuff they've already been cleared of. That's properly American right there.
Fourth, I'm surprised at how many poor answers Hillary had. Like the Russia/Wikileaks thing which, while true, opened her up to attack and didn't do much beyond stating an obvious truth that Trump could easily shrug off and deflect without his base giving a damn.
Fifth, despite the thing I just said above, some of Hillary's answers were on-point, measured, and just generally pretty good. That thirty years rebuttal was especially excellent, and Trump look idiotic for continuing to go after it, especially with the whole "I don't understand the structure of the US federal government" crap shenanigans.
Sixth, despite often being unhinged and rambling, Trump had frequent moments of surprising clarity, where he came across as coherent. He looked like he would fall apart like he did in the last debate, but sometimes occasionally half climbed out of it. I was impressed. Like, I got the impression that he actually prepared for the debate to a degree.
Seventh, if I was a bald eagle, I'd be banging my head into all the walls right now. That was just generally awful.
Eighth, it'll be interesting to see the state of the GOP tomorrow.
Ninth,
...
eh
I had impressions about the debate. I'm not sure if I still have them because I'm basically just giggling about nothing now and listening to the JSRF soundtrack, but I definitely had them at one point.
First, I zoned out several times during Trump's responses. I assume this is good for Hillary because it probably means that Trump seemed very unfocused some of the time, or something.
Second, I think I was right about Hillary having to tread lightly on the issue of the accusations with Bill. Her response seems like it would basically scrape through without offending very many people. And, she preempted Trump's attack well. But, she also didn't manage to detonate nukes in Trump's face about it. She didn't get totally pulled into it, which is good for her.
Third, what the heck was up with that special prosecutor shit? Good to know you'll be Putin your opposition in jail for stuff they've already been cleared of. That's properly American right there.
Fourth, I'm surprised at how many poor answers Hillary had. Like the Russia/Wikileaks thing which, while true, opened her up to attack and didn't do much beyond stating an obvious truth that Trump could easily shrug off and deflect without his base giving a damn.
Fifth, despite the thing I just said above, some of Hillary's answers were on-point, measured, and just generally pretty good. That thirty years rebuttal was especially excellent, and Trump look idiotic for continuing to go after it, especially with the whole "I don't understand the structure of the US federal government" crap shenanigans.
Sixth, despite often being unhinged and rambling, Trump had frequent moments of surprising clarity, where he came across as coherent. He looked like he would fall apart like he did in the last debate, but sometimes occasionally half climbed out of it. I was impressed. Like, I got the impression that he actually prepared for the debate to a degree.
Seventh, if I was a bald eagle, I'd be banging my head into all the walls right now. That was just generally awful.
Eighth, it'll be interesting to see the state of the GOP tomorrow.
Ninth,
...
eh
sazzy
Member
Anderson looked like he was about to turn donald to stone with his gaze
You can't make any assumptions. It would have been a completely different 90 minutes.
darkstar0155
Member
I noticed it right away too.
metalslimer
Member
Nah, Clinton's best moments were with the audience and we would have gotten more of those without the tape.
The Lamonster
Member
"America lost"
-my Facebook is so edgy and clever
-my Facebook is so edgy and clever
Betting markets are usually pretty accurate because people are financially invested in the results. They can be skewed, but generally speaking, the markets usually balance themselves. If I saw Hillary Clinton to win the election at like 10 cents (for example), I guess I'd dump my entire life savings + pull a mortgage + sell my car + whatever into that undervalued stock.
Holy shit it got to 88%? Wtf. I was looking at a time to cash out and never saw it get close to that high
excelsiorlef
Member
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
Is there a breakdown of non-Russian Eastern European ancestry populations by state?
Because I can't imagine a single Ukrainian-American or Lithuanian-American is going to vote for Trump. Those vote totals might look like Indian-American vote totals.
Because I can't imagine a single Ukrainian-American or Lithuanian-American is going to vote for Trump. Those vote totals might look like Indian-American vote totals.
Spiritreaver
Member
So, going beyond tonight, I think Trump still takes a hit in the polls over the next two weeks.
sazzy
Member
did anyone even cover what was being said during that conf? it seemed like all the commentators were talking over it
metalslimer
Member
We won't be able to tally the single effects of the debate and pussygate. A big part of his coming drop will be from the tape
Let one of the accusers answer a debate question for him on stage.
Basileus777
Member
These are niche low volume markets which are of pretty questionable use as an indicator.
Link
The Autumn Wind
He's done. He has a foreign policy debate, more Republican defections, and maybe more tapes.
He's got nothing to try.
Maybe Vince Foster?
Rockin' Ranger
Member
Keep hammering away at Hillary's acid washed emails and trying to convince Bernie supporters not to vote for her. That's really all he's got left at this point.
Nothing. He came at the Queen and missed.
Insta polls aren't that great a measure of who won (since most of the effects will be felt over the next few days after media digestion, and instant polls aren't very accurate in general) but it's not bad to be ahead. We have to wait a few days for real national polls to come out which include the debate winner to see. Also, since the tape and the debate happened almost in tandem, by Friday or so we should see their effects in quality polls.
Billy Bush is the new Vince Foster
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
Betting markets are usually pretty accurate because people are financially invested in the results. They can be skewed, but generally speaking, the markets usually balance themselves. If I saw Hillary Clinton to win the election at like 10 cents (for example), I guess I'd dump my entire life savings + pull a mortgage + sell my car + whatever into that undervalued stock.
Holy shit it got to 88%? Wtf. I was looking at a time to cash out and never saw it get close to that high
There's nowhere near enough money in these markets to make them accurate.
Rubio shot up from 22% to 74% in "wins Republican nomination" based on him finishing third in Iowa! No reasonable market would have that happen.
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