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[Joe Shlabotnik]

NBC/WSJ has been Clinton's friendliest big pollster, but yeah, it's still one of the big ones and it ain't off by ten points. Trump train is on fire.

Curious to see CNN/ORC which has been a big meanie to Clinton this year.

 

[PKrockin]

Yes, 9/16-9/19: 43-37-9-2, so same last two figures for Johnson and Stein.

Thanks. I can't seem to open the full report. Scribd is acting up on my computer for some reason.

538 also rated the pollster A-... this looks like pretty concrete evidence Trump really got absolutely hammered by the tape.

 

[Bronx-Man]

.

 

[Pyrokai]

I wish wish wish North Carolina and Ohio were voting right now.

Don't worry.

I'm voting in Ohio on Wednesday.

 

[B-Dubs]

For the historically ignorant of us, when you say 14 points is historic, how historic is it?

Reagan/Mondale levels of asswhopping, if i remember right.

 

[ampere]

Even the Clinton camp knew she was a weak candidate. Will this thread ever agree?

Can I post an image of text too

#facts

 

[Judderman]

YESSSS

I had The Reynolds Pamphlet on loop on Friday.

 

[Grief.exe]

Holy shit those polls. Combine that with the Ryan comments, and there might be a real shot of taking Congress. At least the Senate hopefully.

The Senate is already golden, eyes are on the House now.

+8 Hillary is currently the tipping point, with heavily gerrymandered districts actually damaging Republicans with suppressed turnout.

 

[Outdoor Miner]

You guys see the trending hashtag #MuslimsReportStuff? Some of these are gold!

 

[Wilsongt]

30 days left and plenty of wikileaks to go!!

 

[sazzy]

lets see how r/donald is doing...

 

[HK-47]

How can Scottie even keep a straight face when she says that?? She must know how stupid those who support her point of view must be.

You cant stump crazy.

 

[benjipwns]

For the historically ignorant of us, when you say 14 points is historic, how historic is it?

A Marist poll had her up 14 in the four way in August. She was up 15 in the two way.

Using these as the only two data points her campaign is collapsing.

 

[Manmademan]

For the historically ignorant of us, when you say 14 points is historic, how historic is it?

There are very few races that get that high. Reagan/Mondale was 18 points, the map looked like this:

Anywhere close to 14 points and the GOP is getting wiped out at the house and senate level nationwide.

it's a complete disaster.

 

[HylianTom]

Save the oppo. It'd be wasted for the next week. This is going to be self-reinforcing.


From @jmartinNYT:

House conservatives are FURIOUS. Carter, McClintock, Long and especially Dana R angrily tell Rs they can't abandon Trump. LINK tk shortly

 

[Teggy]

Poor WSJ

http://www.wsj.com/articles/a-path-to-president-pence-1476050418?mod=e2two

 

[PKrockin]

For the historically ignorant of us, when you say 14 points is historic, how historic is it?

Well, HW Bush vs Dukakis had a popular vote margin of 8 points and the electoral map looked like this.

 

[GoldenEye 007]

The Senate is already golden, eyes are on the House now.

+8 Hillary is currently the tipping point, with heavily gerrymandered districts actually damaging Republicans with suppressed turnout.

Yeah, I'm just pessimistic for the House given the massive difficulties the Dems have had there. But goddamn if we can pull that off.

 

[nature boy]

Veteran and respected pollster:

Spoiler

/s

Bill Mitchell ‏@mitchellvii 4m4 minutes ago
The POS NBC/WSJ Poll is not only D+8, it's Likely Voter sample is only 447. Seriously, a National Poll with an LV of 447? Delete Your Poll.

 

[Beer Monkey]

Sam Wang is required reading today.

Yesterday, Hillary Clinton’s PEC win probability hit 95%

Save the oppo. It'd be wasted for the next week. This is going to be self-reinforcing.

It's definitely rope-a-dope time. Save those punches.

 

[Suikoguy]

Save the oppo. It'd be wasted for the next week. This is going to be self-reinforcing.

No kidding, i'm sure they know what they are doing though.

 

[Incognito]

mike murphy saying that he's seen internals that are worse than the nbc/wsj numbers

 

[Boke1879]

We don't need any oppo being released right now. Those polls help put the focus right back on the Trump tape and everything with the GOP is going to be covered. Seriously Paul Ryan is a damn mess.

Interested to see how the call with Priebus and the RNC goes. I feel it'll be similar sentiments to what Ryan is doing, but if they pull funding from Trump to focus on downballot he's even more screwed.

 

[Grexeno]

mike murphy saying that he's seen internals that are worse than the nbc/wsj numbers

 

[OmniOne]

mike murphy saying that he's seen internals that are worse than the nbc/wsj numbers

nnnnnnnnnnnnnngggg.




I don't believe this timeline. It can't be real.

 

[Bronx-Man]

Veteran and respected pollster:

Spoiler

/s

I'm sure Defective Pat Warburton Clone knows a lot about polls. He's an expert.

 

[Lo-Volt]

@murphymike: I've seen even worse numbers in internal GOP tracking... #Flatline #WeDeserveThis

Oh, tell me more!

Oh, so beaten, goddamn you're fast, guys.

 

[anaron]

Save the oppo. It'd be wasted for the next week. This is going to be self-reinforcing.


From @jmartinNYT:

exactly.

they're right back at talking about the tape and Trump's comments in 98. let's keep that going

 

[Aaron Strife]

Remember that a margin of about 6-7 points (evenly distributed to all candidates) in 2012 and 2014 would have won us back the House when factoring in the seats we'll gain from redistricting. Now the swing won't be uniform but I can see this hitting suburban districts the hardest which is the likeliest path to a Democratic House (talking seats like MN-3 Paulsen and CA-49 Issa).

So I dunno how much I buy the "oh well Democrats need to be winning by 10" talk, although 10 would certainly make for a stronger guarantee.

 

[whyamihere]

mike murphy saying that he's seen internals that are worse than the nbc/wsj numbers

SCREAMING

 

[Iolo]

I don't quite believe those Marist numbers yet (and it may tighten as the base gets excited again), but damn if it doesn't feel good.

Also Paul Ryan has the worst timing ever

 

[BitStyle]

Polls got me on a hopium high.

The blood is in the water!

 

[jtb]

this is best possible scenario for retaking the house, no? Trump cannot be abandoned, even though he is clearly an anchor on the party. He and his rabid base will drag everyone down with him. am I being too optimistic?

 

[Felix Lighter]

Trump is like a dying star. He's burping out endorsements before he explodes. The hope is when he goes supernova he turns into a blackhole in sucks the GOP back into their doom.

 

[benjipwns]

mike murphy saying that he's seen internals that are worse than the nbc/wsj numbers

wow, hillary really blew it that bad?

 

[Bronx-Man]

mike murphy saying that he's seen internals that are worse than the nbc/wsj numbers

 

[Iolo]

wow, hillary really blew it that bad?

no. those internals were for the jeb! campaign

 

[Brinbe]

Save the oppo. It'd be wasted for the next week. This is going to be self-reinforcing.


From @jmartinNYT:

Beautiful... They're exactly right. They can't abandon Trump because that's their constituency. Their infighting is legit making me just as happy as the new poll numbers. Letthemfight.gif to the extreme.

 

[Amir0x]

@murphymike: I've seen even worse numbers in internal GOP tracking... #Flatline #WeDeserveThis

Oh, tell me more!

Oh, so beaten, goddamn you're fast, guys.

*fans self*

 

[metalslimer]

The path to the house I don't think is even primarily dependent on Clinton beating him by like 10. The republican infighting will be the big decider. If the base is completely fed up with the whole electoral process the House becomes a lot easier.

 

[Loudninja]

Save the oppo. It'd be wasted for the next week. This is going to be self-reinforcing.


From @jmartinNYT:

Oh its going to get worse I am sure.

Let they them keep hanging on.

 

[Box of Kittens]

For the historically ignorant of us, when you say 14 points is historic, how historic is it?

Some good examples to keep in mind when talking about landslides.

1936 (FDR/Landon) +24.3
1964 (LBJ/Goldwater) +22.6
1972 (Nixon/McGovern) +23.2
1984 (Reagan/Mondale) +18.2

The closest in terms of popular vote was 1880 (Garfield/Hancock) +0.02. The difference was fewer than 2000 votes.

 

[Voysa Reezun]

Rick Wilson is starting a tweetstorm now! As deluded as he is about Eggan McMuffin, I do love him tearing into Trump and the GOP leadership.

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

This may be a lesson to all of us who think any debate performance will change the trajectory of your campaign after a video comes out of you bragging about sexual assault.

 

[Random17]

Drop the next tape early, imo. Put all the pressure on now and see if we reach a breaking point?

 

[JetBlackPanda]

This may be a lesson to all of us who think any debate performance will change the trajectory of your campaign after a video comes out of you bragging about sexual assault.

To be fair these numbers are pre debate.

I don't think it changes tho

 

[Kangi]

Reminds me of early August. And I imagine there's too many Trump bombshells coming for a bounce back to be facilitated like in mid September. Not enough time, either. Unless Hillary dies again.

 

[nature boy]

This may be a lesson to all of us who think any debate performance will change the trajectory of your campaign after a video comes out of you bragging about sexual assault.

Debate narrative is gone. Poll and Ryan going to dominate the news.

NBC/WSJ and NBC/SurveyMonkey showing different TRENDZZZZZZs

 

[chefbags]

SCREAMING

Edit: trying to post daredevil screaming gif but I fucked up lol.

 

[jbug617]

Roger Stone paid those women last night to appear.
http://www.vox.com/policy-and-polit...t=chorus&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter

Stone’s Super PAC Stone reportedly paid Kathy Shelton — the Arkansas sexual assault victim whose alleged rapist Hillary Clinton defended in court — $2,500 to appear with Trump before the second presidential debate, according to the Chicago Tribune.

Earlier this year, Stone sought to raise money to pay off the mortgage of Kathleen Willey, who accused Bill Clinton of making unwanted sexual advances toward her during her time as a volunteer in his White House in the 1990s. Stone claimed in an online video interview that Trump had personally contributed to the fund.