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PoliGAF 2016 |OT12| The last days of the Republic

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A

AndyD

aka andydumi
Toxi said:
While I don't think Clinton handled the question well, this is the speech excerpt she was asked about.
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Agree. She should have repeated the sausage line. It's so visceral and it brings immediate understanding to people's minds that we don't want to know the details, please stop!
 
B

BitStyle

Unconfirmed Member
whyamihere said:
WELP.
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2653862-5745018133-2315..gif
 
Z

Zukkoyaki

Member
Not sure I buy that Clinton has a double-digit lead but a very strong 8ish point lead? Hell yes. Only four weeks to election day, early voting about to start and supposedly at least two big cards left to play against Trump.

Beautiful!
 
lyrick

lyrick

Member
Hydrophobic said:
What it does exactly is very heavily dependent on how Google News categorizes each article (political affiliation, content type, site, etc.) so it actually could have that effect. The only thing that seems relatively certain is that it'll show you less RT and Wikileaks. The 'yes/no' is intended to perform the same function as the thumbs up and thumbs down in Pandora.
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I finally figured out the 'personalize' panel.

3MuxA4Y.png
 
B

Boke1879

Member
Random17 said:
Early voting is about to begin and people may have made have their minds by then.

The goal is to split Trump from the party, one or two big ones after another will physically break the GOP in half. This will ensure both up and down ballot supremacy for the Dems.

I honestly think Trump is one last new controversy away from a knockout, either from his own admission of defiance or the party taking action. The second debate should have been it, but he didn't do that bad in comparison to the first despite still being an idiot.
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Nah let this story fester a bit longer. It's sinking him. Let it continue. These new polls plus the GOP civil war most likely means Trump goes out there and starts attacking them publicly at rallies.

If anything the oppo needs to come out either Thursday or Friday. Give him another negative weekend.

Also if there is a tape of him saying the N word. I hope that doesn't drop until at the earliest just before the last debate. If not then release it right after.
 
P

PKrockin

Member
Box of Kittens said:
Note, however, that states are more polarized now. Dukakis won 10 states (plus DC). A naive reading that used partisan voting index and assumed uniform swing (i.e. ignoring elasticity and any local factors) would give the Republican candidate 17 or 18 states (South Carolina would be a tossup).
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Right, that election was a while ago and demographics have shifted. A closer baseline to use might be the 2008 election where Obama racked up 365 electoral votes with a 7% edge over McCain in the popular vote. But if Clinton manages to break 7% by my largely uneducated eye it seems like she could flip Arizona, Alaska and Georgia for 30 more electoral votes. I'm no expert though. My point was just generally to say a near double digit lead is a huge lead since someone asked how big it was.

2008 race:

349px-ElectoralCollege2008.svg.png


I shouldn't commit the sin of getting too excited over one poll. I'd better wait for a few more. This is a terrible early sign for the Trump campaign though.
 
S

StoOgE

First tragedy, then farce.
Atomic Playboy said:
It might cost him the support of his African-American.
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It will continue to erode support from white voters, especially suburban voters across the country.

It's the sort of thing that could start putting states like Texas perilously close on election day and cost you a shitload of gerrymandered districts.

It also creates a lot of "shy" Trump voters who won't talk about voting for Trump which really hurts the grass roots movement he has building. It'll be down to Pepe voters and deplorables publicly saying they'll vote for Trump which will really supress moderate-right turnout.

It would basically amplify his sexual-assault leak.
 
S

Spiritreaver

Member
Sorry, I don't think the debate gets him out of this dip in the polls. I said yesterday he will take a dip. He may bounce a couple points over the two next weeks, but he won't surge.
 
V

Voysa Reezun

Banned
I still think she also flips SC in an 8+ point win. That state has had her about 4-6 points down fairly consistently in a number of polls. A slight depression of white voters + black voters coming out in full force could be enough.

Then again, I don't know SC, so if someone lives there, they might think I'm wrong (and can tell me why).

EDIT: Ugh, RBG. Her views on Kaepernick have caused me to lose a ton of respect for her. Lots of people exposing themselves because of Kaep, but I never guessed that she would be one.
 
A

Atomic Playboy

Member
benjipwns said:
He said "the latinos, the hispanics" every time because I think he was unsure which was the right one to use so he was using both.
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Yeah, it was "the latinos, the hispanics," which is just weird phrasing. I'm surprised he didn't start talking about "chicanos, la raza" or the like. Well, not that surprised, since I'm guessing he's never actually heard those words.
 
A

Amir0x

Banned
StoOgE said:
It will continue to erode support from white voters, especially suburban voters across the country.

It's the sort of thing that could start putting states like Texas perilously close on election day and cost you a shitload of gerrymandered districts.

It also creates a lot of "shy" Trump voters who won't talk about voting for Trump which really hurts the grass roots movement he has building. It'll be down to Pepe voters and deplorables publicly saying they'll vote for Trump which will really supress moderate-right turnout.

It would basically amplify his sexual-assault leak.
Click to expand...

In other words, Democrats have apparently pleased their Gods. All of them. And they are now reaping the blessings. Amen.
 
S

studyguy

Member
Boke1879 said:
"There's my African American!"


Also last night did he call them the "Latino Hispanics"?
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Didn't he say "Hispanics, some of them like to be called Latinos."

Which isn't like... That's like saying some Asians like to be called Polynesian or something. It's not like how it works at all. No one call themselves Latino because they LIKE to be called that, it's representative of where you hail from.
 
M

Manmademan

Member
Voysa Reezun said:
I still think she also flips SC in an 8+ point win. That state has had her about 4-6 points down fairly consistently in a number of polls. A slight depression of white voters + black voters coming out in full force could be enough.

Then again, I don't know SC, so if someone lives there, they might think I'm wrong (and can tell me why).
Click to expand...

you know where else she's been down about 6 points consistently?

TEXAS
 
M

Manmademan

Member
RustyNails said:
Texas will secede before it gives in to crooked hillary.
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Texas is only R because hispanics don't vote in anywhere near the numbers that blacks and whites do.

A moderate increase in hispanic voting participation (seriously, they're usually hanging out at 45% nationally vs. 65% or so for blacks and whites) plus a depressed white vote will flip that state.

I can absolutely see Texas flipping at a +10 margin.
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
Is GAF infected with something right now? When I try to click "next page" it's opening a new tab which tells me to "buy targeted traffic"

Anyway, Sessions is a sexual assault truther:

SESSIONS: This was very improper language, and he's acknowledged that.

TWS: But beyond the language, would you characterize the behavior described in that [video] as sexual assault if that behavior actually took place?

SESSIONS: I don't characterize that as sexual assault. I think that's a stretch. I don't know what he meant—

TWS: So if you grab a woman by the genitals, that's not sexual assault?

SESSIONS: I don't know. It's not clear that he—how that would occur.
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http://www.weeklystandard.com/jeff-...xual-assault/article/2004799?custom_click=rss
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
Rick Wilson ‏@TheRickWilson 12s12 seconds ago
7/ but I get it. You're afraid. Trumpqaeda is terrifying to you. It's okay. Stick with him. You'll have time to repent at leisure.

Rick Wilson ‏@TheRickWilson 2m2 minutes ago
6/ your political calculations and those of your consultants are simply wrong. You don't get a pass for saying you supported Mike Pence.

Rick Wilson ‏@TheRickWilson 4m4 minutes ago
5/ More is coming out on Trump. The only easy day was yesterday. It will never get better.
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.
 
I

Iolo

Member
whyamihere said:
So when does Hillary start campaigning in Arizona, Georgia, Indiana, and Missouri?
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She won't, but given the last couple weeks there has been increasing discussion on doing snap polling of congressional races in marginal districts and transferring money to downballot.
 
F

Fragamemnon

Member
Timothy Noah ‏@TimothyNoah1 54m54 minutes ago
Ryan decides if anybody calls he'll say "Housekeeper! No speak English!" in high-pitched voice, slam down phone.
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Basically this. Ryan's made a bad situation worse by doing nothing while alienating everyone.He needed to be brave one way or another but he just can't. It's not in his DNA.

Dude's speakership, assuming that the GOP can even keep the house, is fatally wounded.
 
benjipwns

benjipwns

Banned
“Yes,” said Ginsburg. “If they want to be stupid, there’s no law that should be preventive. If they want to be arrogant, there’s no law that prevents them from that. What I would do is strongly take issue with the point of view that they are expressing when they do that.”
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Probably should have asked her what the point of view is that they're expressing.

The Justices in the past have proven to be rather...sheltered from current events.
 
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