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PoliGAF 2016 |OT12| The last days of the Republic

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Cyanity

Banned
Yeah, I'm really worried about Florida. I hope everyone stays safe, but it might swing for Trump if everyone is trying to recollect their lives.

Is Matthew for sure going to hit Florida hard?


Matthew is 100% going to hit Florida hard this evening, I believe. Politically though, Hillary could win without florida at this point, but still. I'm atheist praying for them.
 

sphagnum

Banned
There's a great story about a Newark mom trapped indoors during a blizzard and tweeting about how she needed to buy diapers for her baby. Booker saw the tweet, tweeted back with "I'm on it," and then personally delivered the diapers to her in the storm.

That's what everyone goes crazy over. What a lot of those people overlook, and what the woman in the story has pointed out, is that the reason she couldn't buy the diapers herself is because Booker couldn't get the fucking roads plowed for her to leave her house and buy them herself.

Yeah, he's quite self aggrandizing.
 
What's with the bipartisan obsession with charter schools anyways?

Well of course you have the factor that charter schools are in the interest of some powerful people. But beyond that you have a lot of factors. There's a desire to try something to improve education, particularly in regards to urban school districts and on paper charter schools can sound like a good idea. The idea of schools that have the flexibility to try innovative approaches is appealing across party lines.

Of course the reality is quite far from what it sounds like on paper. When I was living in Ohio there were news reports coming out about the charter schools there that were quite damning, including but not limited to falsifying attendance records for funding.
 

Iolo

Member
There's a great story about a Newark mom trapped indoors during a blizzard and tweeting about how she needed to buy diapers for her baby. Booker saw the tweet, tweeted back with "I'm on it," and then personally delivered the diapers to her in the storm.

That's what everyone goes crazy over. What a lot of those people overlook, and what the woman in the story has pointed out, is that the reason she couldn't buy the diapers herself is because Booker couldn't get the fucking roads plowed for her to leave her house and buy them herself.

Well this works for Republicans when they hamstring government and use the result as evidence that government sucks, it's about time we turn the tables
 
Right: Nehv-ADD-uh
Wrong: Nehv-Ahhh-duh

The first one is like "add" as in, "add 2 plus 2 to get 4". The second is like "ahh", like the first part of the word "awesome".

Here I was thinking "Ne-VAH-duh" was correct. Glad I've never had call to say the name of the state while I was visiting. Then again, coming from Oregon, I feel like I get a little bit of leeway when it comes to people mispronouncing state names, as it seems like everyone East of the Mississippi thinks we're "Or-ee-gone". It wasn't until the Ducks started doing OK in college football that people started realizing how to say our state.
 
The charter school I went to was awesome and it got me out of the horrendous education system. The problem was we soaked up a lot of public money when the capacity of the school was so much less. I didn't understand at the time why the public school system was fighting us so hard at the time. There was a huge fight over busing

Also things seem so much worse for Florida than I thought yesterday
 

Iolo

Member
Yeah, I'm really worried about Florida. I hope everyone stays safe, but it might swing for Trump if everyone is trying to recollect their lives.

Is Matthew for sure going to hit Florida hard?

Hurricane Matthew will deal a devastating blow to the Florida coast

The center of Hurricane Matthew will rake up the coastline, exposing a vast area of real estate to its most destructive force — its dangerous northern eye wall. Matthew will be a potentially historic nightmare for nearly the entire east coast of Florida.

Hurricane Matthew was a Category 4 on Thursday morning, and it could strengthen even more before it reaches Florida. The coastal section that Matthew has targeted north of Palm Beach has not seen a hurricane this strong make landfall in the entire period of record since 1850. In all likelihood, Matthew will scrape along the coast as a Category 4 with sustained winds of 145 mph. The results will be catastrophic.

Lester Holt just touched down in Florida to report from the coast. Is this reward or punishment for the debate?
 

Holmes

Member
ND has the same laws.

Have fun freaking out about Donnelly and Heitkamp in two years everybody!
North Dakota had a decent amount of polling in October (mostly from some unknown Pharos Research) but I recall it was pretty much a toss up, a little lean R - the final poll of the race had Berg up 2%. It was really fun watching Heitkamp win that one.
 
The charter school I went to was awesome and it got me out of the horrendous education system. The problem was we soaked up a lot of public money when the capacity of the school was so much less.

Of course. Many parents LOVE their charter schools and give them high marks and much of the praise you just did. But usually the issue isn't that they got their kids away from "a horrendous education system", they got them away from the problem children of the student body, and into an environment where nearly all parents place a high value on education.

Good for them individually, but all that does is concentrate the problem students into the public schools even more than they already are, and slashes the budget that would be needed to deal with them.
 
That's so weird. I've only ever heard Nev-ahd-a. I have rarely left the north east so it must be a regional misunderstanding, but it's amazing I have never heard it pronounced "Nev-ad-a" until now.

I'm glad I learned this now before I embarrassed myself in front of somebody who knew better.
I can think of a couple other places where locals pronounce it one way and everyone else pronounces it another:

Gettysburg (locals pronounce it Get-ISS-burg, not Get-EES-burg)
Talladega (locals say Talla-DEE-ga, not Talla-DAY-ga)
Louisville (varies somewhat, but locals tend to say LOO-A-VUL or LOO-A-VILLE as opposed to LOO-E-VILLE)
 
I can think of a couple other places where locals pronounce it one way and everyone else pronounces it another:

Gettysburg (locals pronounce it Get-ISS-burg, not Get-EES-burg)
Talladega (locals say Talla-DEE-ga, not Talla-DAY-ga)
Louisville (varies somewhat, but locals tend to say LOO-A-VUL or LOO-A-VILLE as opposed to LOO-E-VILLE)

64347681.K5zbESj4.IMG_9000copy.jpg
 

Cerium

Member
Hurricane Matthew will deal a devastating blow to the Florida coast

Lester Holt just touched down in Florida to report from the coast. Is this reward or punishment for the debate?

This is particularly unfortunate because I think Republicans will have learned all the wrong lessons from Sandy in 2012 and will try to politicize this to the max and deliberately avoid cooperating with Obama so that they can make hay of what a mess it's become. And in the end it's the people that suffer.

Is that a blue part of the state?
 
I'm actually worried we might not retake the senate.

And if we don't I can totally see the GOP just killing the Scotus and refusing to appoint anyone for who knows how long. Just because they can and weren't punished for doing it this time.
 
Yeah, I'm really worried about Florida. I hope everyone stays safe, but it might swing for Trump if everyone is trying to recollect their lives.

Is Matthew for sure going to hit Florida hard?

I don't get this. Even saying it does effect the election, wouldn't it effect both Clinton and Trump equally or mostly equal?
 
North Dakota had a decent amount of polling in October (mostly from some unknown Pharos Research) but I recall it was pretty much a toss up, a little lean R - the final poll of the race had Berg up 2%. It was really fun watching Heitkamp win that one.

obligatory:

ap_Heidi_Heitkamp_senate_race_close_thg_121115_mn.jpg
 
i'm gonna be That Guy and point out that the areas that'll be most impacted by pre-loop matthew are mostly republican-leaning

Do we have good evidence that the areas most impacted are R leaning areas, or is this sorta just a "it probably will be X leaning areas" with no empirical data to go off of? Serious question.
 

Cerium

Member
I don't get this. Even saying it does effect the election, wouldn't it effect both Clinton and Trump equally or mostly equal?

Rick Scott, the Republican governor, is also known as Skeletor or Voldemort. He is comically evil. If he can wring an ounce of political advantage from the suffering of his own people, you can be sure that he will do so.

Also anything that depresses turnout helps the Republicans.
 
Do we have good evidence that the areas most impacted are R leaning areas, or is this sorta just a "it probably will be X leaning areas" with no empirical data to go off of? Serious question.

literally every coastal county north of where it's forecast to make landfall is empirically lean R

orange/osceola are inland and shouldn't be hit quite as hard as those areas
 

Joeytj

Banned
Ok, honestly, as a Spanish speaker, I don't get the Nevada pronunciation debate, you all are pronouncing it wrong anyway, way different than it's original Spanish one.

In English, It sounds almost the same to non-English natives, especially to the latino community, I bet.
 
Rick Scott, the Republican governor, is also known as Skeletor or Voldemort. He is comically evil. If he can wring an ounce of political advantage from the suffering of his own people, you can be sure that he will do so.

Also anything that depresses turnout helps the Republicans.

This will either bring climate change into the limelight (not a good look for R's) or bring federal disaster aid relief, again not being a good look for R's. I just don't see this as having much of a election impact, especially being over a month away.
 
Carson didn't win, not even a little. He may be unscathed by Trump, but he's basically a boring Trump, so he kind of loses when it comes to his broader political career. He's basically so bad on his own, that Trump can't bring him down further.

Sure he did. If you define his goal as becoming a high-profile conservative personality and book salesman, Carson was wildly successful. He is now a go-to guy for conservative media on two major issues: as a pious Christian, and as a scold of black people for white audiences so they can assure themselves they aren't racist. Those are two very lucrative niches, and without this election cycle, they would still be occupied by people like Rick Santorum and Herman Cain.
 
Ok, honestly, as a Spanish speaker, I don't get the Nevada pronunciation debate, you all are pronouncing it wrong anyway, way different than it's original Spanish one.

In English, It sounds almost the same to non-English natives, especially to the latino community, I bet.

Apparently everybody outside of Nevada pronounced it AH-DA and people in Nevada pronounce it AD-A. I don't think this has ever been a point of contention until now. But here we are.

And all things said, I would rather be right than wrong.
 

Dierce

Member
This will either bring climate change into the limelight (not a good look for R's) or bring federal disaster aid relief, again not being a good look for R's. I just don't see this as having much of a election impact, especially being over a month away.

I think at most what it will do, politically, is make the next debates irrelevant in the news cycle.
 

Christian

Member
Trump goes to Nevada, tells Nevadans he knows how to pronounce their state's name and that he knows it's important to them, proceeds to mispronounce name. Jesus Christ. Is Ted "Basketball Rings" Cruz helping with stumping, now, too?
 
I'm actually worried we might not retake the senate.

And if we don't I can totally see the GOP just killing the Scotus and refusing to appoint anyone for who knows how long. Just because they can and weren't punished for doing it this time.

I wouldn't be.

ticket splitting is pretty much dead. It's looking like Democrats should carry IL, PA, WI, and IN pretty easily. Those alone gives you senate control, plus Kaine if something bizarre happens.

On top of those, NC and NH are probably going to go D- ticket splitting is pretty much dead. Hillary carries those states and the senate is probably going along with it.

Nevada is pretty close and *could* go R- but we know Nevada polling consistently undercounts D turnout, given the industry in that state and the number of voters who speak poor english or none at all.

FL is also in the same boat- polling "leans R" but there are a LOT of voters that aren't being polled due to the language issue as well as recent migration in from PR.
 

Atlagev

Member
I can think of a couple other places where locals pronounce it one way and everyone else pronounces it another:

Gettysburg (locals pronounce it Get-ISS-burg, not Get-EES-burg)
Talladega (locals say Talla-DEE-ga, not Talla-DAY-ga)
Louisville (varies somewhat, but locals tend to say LOO-A-VUL or LOO-A-VILLE as opposed to LOO-E-VILLE)

Another one is Pierre in South Dakota. The locals say "Peer," as in, "he is my peer," not "PE-AIR," and I was boggled beyond belief when I found this out.

Wacky place, South Dakota.
 
Ok, honestly, as a Spanish speaker, I don't get the Nevada pronunciation debate, you all are pronouncing it wrong anyway, way different than it's original Spanish one.

In English, It sounds almost the same to non-English natives, especially to the latino community, I bet.

I was surprised the first time I heard a San Franciscan refer to San Pablo bay (pablo pronounced like "grab-low), and the first time I heard the "los angle-ees" pronunciation also comes to mind. I suppose it is pretty inconsistent in the ways it differs from the original Spanish, though.
 
Nevada is pretty close and *could* go R- but we know Nevada polling consistently undercounts D turnout, given the industry in that state and the number of voters who speak poor english or none at all.

I still find it funny we have an entire state whose industry pretty much revolves around night life and gambling. And it's so prominent, it's difficult to do day stuff in the state due to the state having completely different hours than everyone else.

You couldn't make up such a place in a book without it sounding kind of fake.
 
I think at most what it will do, politically, is make the next debates irrelevant in the news cycle.

Honestly, that's a benefit to Clinton. She has little to gain from the debate going heavily in her favor, and much to lose. Trump NEEDS to turn the tide, and the debate not getting much media attention wouldn't be that good if he does do well (especially since most will be watching football when its actually on)
 

Pyrokai

Member
I don't get this. Even saying it does effect the election, wouldn't it effect both Clinton and Trump equally or mostly equal?

Democrats win if people hit the polls. If this storm decimates some Florida cities, where mostly democrats live, they'll be too busy picking up their lives and getting back on their feet to worry about voting. Low turnout = GOP wins. High turnout = Dems win.

I hate talking about this kind of stuff with people's lives on the line, but the timing of this is really bad politically speaking. Even one month from now on election day, people may still not have power, are staying with relatives away from their polling locations, etc.
 
uh

hillary just sent out a fundraising email titled "bedwetting"

HEY GUYS

We’re not going to panic -- no “bedwetting” here, as some commentators like to call it. Instead, we’re going to show up for Hillary, get our team into gear, and get our fundraising back on track -- or we’re going to find out what happens when we hand Donald Trump a dangerous advantage.

Good guy Mook respecting Diablos' wishes
 
I think Republicans will get hit hard in FL because doublewides and trailers don't handle weather as well.

FWIW I've lived in a trailer park, so I'm not being classist, just realistic.

I also don't think it will affect their turnout much. Republicans vote, come hell or high water.
 
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