It bothers me insofar as they could make current R controlled regions even worse. Like, I'd really worry about minority communities in the rural south.
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PoliGAF 2016 |OT12| The last days of the Republic
- Thread starter Bronx-Man
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It bothers me insofar as they could make current R controlled regions even worse. Like, I'd really worry about minority communities in the rural south.
My mormon cousins started posting about him today.
I had to go look him up, I never heard of him before today.
metalslimer
Member
You win by having people vote for you definitely - it's one of Clinton's advantages in this race. But I think people are thinking Trump isn't an outlier when by all indications he is. I think a normal(ish) candidate, who, by the way, this same party constituency had chosen for decades in a row, will swing most republicans back onto "voting for them", but also have the turnout benefit of "I hate the opponent". It's not like the GOP voting bloc is significantly different between 2012 and 2016, or 2008 and 2016. It seems like heavy amounts of wishful thinking to assume that they are unable to go back to the same voting patterns they have historically, and Trump not even being able to get 50% of the primary voters indicate that strong leadership and a non 17 person primary race can quickly fix much of the situation.
Now, if the Tea Party launches another mutiny against the moderate GOP in the House after a House loss, well, all fucking hell breaks loose then.
An interesting point is that if there is a wave and the House is lost it will further polarize the GOP because the moderates will be the ones taken out. If that is the case, than there is really nothing to stop them from going for someone crazy like Sessions. Why is the "Let's Take our country back!" wing not going to be able to win especially after 4 years of Clinton. I think the derangement will allow them to nominate someone worse. Now, terrible person will likely be a better candidate than Trump, but by then Clinton will be able to run on her record and not e-mails and Benghazi, and if her record is terrible she was going to lose anyway.
ShadowSwordmaster
Banned
Iowa returns as of today.
Good.
BlastProcessing
Member
October 15th
whyamihere
Banned
Re: Gallup:
Hillary is at her "highest" favorables in a while (-11, 42/53) while Trump has tied his lowest (-32, 32/64).
Hillary is at her "highest" favorables in a while (-11, 42/53) while Trump has tied his lowest (-32, 32/64).
Yup. No need to suck the air out of these stories yet. It looks horrible for Trump and the GOP
Suikoguy
I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
Yep, and how do you deal with that?
whyamihere
Banned
Wait, what?!
BrokenFiction
Member
http://variety.com/2016/tv/news/mar...entice-donald-trump-footage-tapes-1201884255/
Mark Burnett Breaks Silence on The Apprentice Footage, Donald Trump
Burnett and MGM will not be releasing any footage.
Mark Burnett Breaks Silence on The Apprentice Footage, Donald Trump
Burnett and MGM will not be releasing any footage.
NYCmetsfan
Banned
This is just for party switchers not for newly registered. But I thought it was 6 months or so out so like January?
Funny enough, if the dems hold the house when the redistricting is done next time, the Dems will be the party that ends up booting all of its moderates out. Because when you have a district that is gerrymandered to vote Democratic no matter what, the actual race becomes between the two Democratic candidates - which lends itself to the more extreme of the two. This is what happened to the GOP in the House (why the House became Tea Party central and not as much the Senate).
The Technomancer
card-carrying scientician
Iowa returns as of today.
Weird figures. So Republican ballots are at 20k, down 10k from 2012, and Dem ballots are at 50k, down 30k from 2012? Its really skewed that highly across party lines, even historically?
NYCmetsfan
Banned
"Other other materials "
um there were transcripts released today...
Looks like O'Keefe is going to annoyingly intrude again.
Some racist video he produced likely or some random person saying something that could be construed as FRAUD which trump will elevate
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
I still stand by my belief that no actual bombshell has ever been foreshadowed by the people releasing it. This has proven true again and again.
Black Mamba
Member
Would you consider Kamala Harris extreme? Because we got Dem vs Dem in Cali.
It doesn't mean you have to have extremes.
The problem, again, is with the GOP. The GOP party base is a very far right party. This is not true of the democrat base. They are far more moderate.
phisheep
NeoGAF's Chief Barrister
Of course they won't. But they're also not threatening litigation if it leaks.
Yeah, if you have the real deal you don't need to hype it up in advance.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Republicans didn't take early GOTV seriously at all in 2012. This year, they are after Obama beat Romney easily even though Romney won the election day vote.
In fact they legitimately outfoxed Democrats in 2014. Probably aided by Democrats running the worst candidate ever though.
I honestly think it could potentially be a 4-way race in Utah, with McMullin pulling primarily from *holds nose and votes Trump* Mormons and some who were looking to Johnson for a protest vote. Everything at the moment is anecdotal of course but there is a lot of talk among my friends, family, and their respective networks back home about him.
If he gets some of the NeverTrump representatives/party voices (Mittens, Chaffiz, Herbert, Lee, etc.) to endorse him I think it could happen.
They won't release them, but they won't fine anyone if they get released?
We will be seeing them soon.
Basileus777
Member
MGM owns the tapes, whether they pursue legal action will be up to them. Saying that there haven't been threats doesn't mean there won't be any legal action.
BlastProcessing
Member
This really reads like the sort of CYA statement that you would make if you were expecting something to leak soon.
User 463088
Banned
Again, I think the most important way to see what gets to the masses is Nightly News.
NBC pretty much dragged Trump. Said he was "stalking" even had little graphics showing how close he was standing next to Hillary. They played his refusal to apologize and criticized him for "locker room" banter. They pointed out queen has now opened a double digit lead. They talked about the GOP leaving him. Andrea, of course, mentioned EMAILS, but the coverage on Hillary was a lot more positive.
NBC pretty much dragged Trump. Said he was "stalking" even had little graphics showing how close he was standing next to Hillary. They played his refusal to apologize and criticized him for "locker room" banter. They pointed out queen has now opened a double digit lead. They talked about the GOP leaving him. Andrea, of course, mentioned EMAILS, but the coverage on Hillary was a lot more positive.
Hence my specific differences between the Senate and the House. In the Senate, you're still being voted on by the whole state, so you're actually more likely, in a same party vs same party matchup, move towards the middle. But in a house district that you've gerrymandered; you don't have that group of voters to go for, since unless you are in the rare situation of jungle primaries, you aren't fighting over the other party's voters (since they will vote for their party's candidate in the general election). The real election is just in the primary of the dominant party.
I actually would love Jungle Primaries to be more common tbh. Jungle primaries are rare, so using Kamala isn't representative of the phenomenon.
Bring back hope!
Basileus777
Member
I want to ask why Trump is ranting about Chappaquiddick of all things, but I suppose there's no point in trying to figure out his madness.
I just love that he doesn't stay on topic. He wanders so much. Seriously it benefits us when he's distracted lol
Black Mamba
Member
California has quite a few Dem vs Dem house elections. I don't really know if there's any extreme ones.
Again, the Democrat base voter is far more moderate than the GOP one. That's the key here. Until I see evidence of the Democrat party base shifting far left ala the GOP base to the right, I can't accept your premise.
User 463088
Banned
And NBC Nightly News doing a second pass and dragging Trump again.
Don't forget to give her your energy. ༼ つ ◕_◕ ༽つ
Looks like O'Keefe is going to annoyingly intrude again.
Pssssssst, who the fuck is this guy?
NYCmetsfan
Banned
As of now. I hope it says that way but the many of the bernie people have me concerned (not economically but in the constant ability to be used by Wikileaks and the Right by the emails, wall street, super predators, etc). Especially moving forward away from a charismatic politician like Obama.
There's going to be a lot more push back against, say Clinton giving a racial justice speech or muslim speech. If a foreign intervention happens, she won't get a benefit like Obama did. And I think we're gonna start to see people go hard in primaries on perceived slights to progressivism.
I hope I'm wrong but the reaction to clinton and especially her performance with millenials in the absence of trump is concerning.
And I'm not arguing for being critical but rather being accepting of changing positions and incorrect ones held in the past. I see a left that is being raised on facebook and twitter which can't forgive. Right now that's directed at the right, it will come to the left eventually.
acorn pimp dude
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
Uhh I've seen saying this for years. Only the political junkies and DC insiders watch CNN and morning joe. CNN is an exception when something breaking is happening like a tragedy, but average people don't watch their regular programming.
You have to watch the nightly news, daytime talk shows like Today/The View, and even the vapid crap like entertainment tonight to see if any stories have broken through there. Finally, how the late night talk shows react is important also. I'd imagine there's going to be lots of talk about the tapes on them since this is the first day since it happened they've been on air.
Vestal
Junior Member
Dubbedinenglish
Banned
Mr. Acorn truther and tried to wiretap a congresswoman (??).
User 463088
Banned
It fit the narrative. And, also, people have a very visceral reaction to the way men interact with women.
Basileus777
Member
Those people certainly exist, they just haven't proven to be a significant factor in the voting booth unlike their conservative counterparts. And you need to show up in numbers more than once every 4 years to organize a primary battle. Whether that changes as millennials age is the question I suppose.
Yup totally expect the late night shows to touch on this. It's too "juicy" not too.
NYCmetsfan
Banned
They've started to show up for local races.
But I worry more about it torpedoing candidates or sitting rather than actually voting them out
Well, put me on that list of people that disagree with you. Dissing the very concept of America is not the same as showing support for black people. Especially since (American) black people are an important and positive part of what makes America what it is.
The meaning, the "idea" that I ascribe to otherwise meaningless symbols like flags and anthems are that they are a stand-in for the "net value" of the country/state they represent. Median value? Goodness quotient? I not describing good. Basically, my fondness and/or respect for a particular state symbol is almost totally dependant on my opinion of the state itself. And perhaps more importantly, my opinion of the people that make up that state. Clearly, this requires one to be able to recognize that some Americans are real pieces of shit, while others are pretty awesome, and come to some hand-wavy conclusion about how that all balances out.
Do I think the USA is perfect? Ha! Of course not. There are shitbirds everywhere you look. Do I think America is, on balance and throughout its history, more of a good thing than a bad thing? I do. It's not as much of a slam dunk as I wish it was, but I do still think pretty highly of "America". ie, its people, its founding principles, its history, its restaurants, its moms, its music. All that crap, all rolled up. That's what people are acknowledging when they "salute" a flag or stand for an anthem.
So, when some millionaire jock decides to publicly and pointedly disrespect one of the primary the symbols of America, in my mind he is disrespecting the overall *concept* of America, the people of America, essentially everything about America. That's tarring with a ludicrously wide brush. It's such an utterly non-specific "protest" that it has no real meaning other than to just be, literally, anti-American in the broadest sense possible.
I kind of doubt Kaep is rabidly un-American. I feel it's more likely that he's upset about a particular dismaying aspect of America that he recently heard about on the twitter. (He's so socially aware. It's dreamy!) The issue of blacks getting shot by cops in a seemingly offhand way is one that I whole-heartedly agree needs to be addressed, like yesterday. Fuck bigoted white people. Fuck cowardly cops. However, America isn't just the shitbags like them. That flag isn't just their flag. That anthem isn't about them.
So in the end I find his inability to translate his outrage into something just a bit more specific than giving the finger to every American, living or dead, and to all that they aspired or stood for, more than a little lazy. And counterproductive. And frankly, insulting.
TLDR: I agree with Kaep's grievances, I disagree with his "fuck all' you all" method of expressing them. Fuck you too, Kaep. Fuck you too.
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