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[JetBlackPanda]

Yeah, I fucking can't with these people anymore. Apparently that performance actually narrowed the gap.

people loved that "you would be in jail" bullshit.

 

[VRMN]

This is post debate. Just shows that Trump brought a few deplorables back after pussygate - "Stopped the bleeding".

The correct answer is that he's talking about the NBC Survey Monkey tracking poll. NBC/WSJ is a weekly release and a different poll.

 

[Spoiled Milk]

The MOE was 6%. We don't know where the real number is. Await more data.

 

[kirblar]

Yeah, I fucking can't with these people anymore. Apparently that performance actually narrowed the gap.

It's not the actual # that matters, its' the range you're getting. It will always fluctuate poll to poll.

A ten digit lead is INSANE - doesn't matter if it's +9 or +12.

 

[syllogism]

Among only those respondents contacted after the debate, Clinton's lead shrank to a seven point advantage in both a four-way matchup and in a head-to-head race -- reflecting the same margin that Clinton showed in a mid-September NBC/WSJ poll.

But the post debate sample size must have been very small, considering the poll was 8-10 and the total sample size was 806.

 

[Felix Lighter]

It's within the margin of error, I don't think it means much of a difference. He's still getting clobbered and that's before the GOP civil war exploded today.

 

[RustyNails]

The correct answer is that he's talking about the NBC Survey Monkey tracking poll. NBC/WSJ is a weekly release and a different poll.

Ah.

 

[Fedelias]

I hope they're saving some special oppo for the day before the election.

 

[whyamihere]

Nope, he's consolidated a bit of the GOP electorate.

It literally could actually be statistical noise. Or not. But that's the entire idea behind statistical noise!

 

[gutter_trash]

Why would Russia and Wikileaks be helping an establishment GOP nominee though? That's the difference.

Trump isn't a normal Republican, he is just like Nigel Farage and Marine LePen. Let outside forces help him win without realizing that they are being manipulated (due to big ego)

 

[eBay Huckster]

Nope, he's consolidated a bit of the GOP electorate.

Loath as I am to say it, Bam Bam's right. This is probably noise.

(Particularly since this may well literally be them appending a one-day sample onto the 11/14 point poll)

 

[Aaron Strife]

Post-debate and one day sample. I wouldn't read much into it, although I'm sure things will tighten naturally.

 

[VRMN]

Also, her lead is unchanged in the tracker. He did not close the gap, it just didn't get worse.

 

[Joe Shlabotnik]

The MOE was 6%. We don't know where the real number is. Await more data.

The fact that the lead is almost completely outside that absurd MOE is insane.

 

[kirblar]

Also, her lead is unchanged in the tracker. He did not close the gap, it just didn't get worse.

LBJ vs Goldwater was 61/39. 40% is basically the floor. Trump can't really be doing much worse.

 

[Diablos]

So much good news. These Trump tweets are epic

 

[TyrantII]

Yeah, I fucking can't with these people anymore. Apparently that performance actually narrowed the gap.

It's going to narrow up till election day regardless.

It be unexpected if this holds, and basically the apocalypse for the house.

 

[Spoiled Milk]

LBJ vs Goldwater was 61/39. 40% is basically the floor. Trump can't really be doing much worse.

Goldwater was a better candidate than Trump.

 

[Incognito]

Robert Costa reporting Trump's just landed in San Antonio. Fundraiser? Nothing on the schedule there.

yes, he's down the road for a fundraiser hosted by a local developer and president of a bank that caters to hispanics (not kidding)

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

Trump isn't a normal Republican, he is just like Nigel Farage and Marine LePen. Let outside forces help him win without realizing that they are being manipulated (due to big ego)

My post was in response to someone saying all this wikileaks stuff would be bad against a guy like Rubio or Jeb.

 

[cartoon_soldier]

Post-debate and one day sample. I wouldn't read much into it, although I'm sure things will tighten naturally.

I think it stabilizes again around 5-6% lead. Would really like to see some new oppo dump, keep it up.

 

[RastaMentality]

@nicktimiraos: 2nd wave of WSJ/NBC poll:
•Clinton leads Trump by 9
•89% of Republicans support Trump after 2nd debate vs 74% before
http://www.wsj.com/articles/hillary-clinton-leads-donald-trump-by-9-points-poll-finds-1476209159

.

 

[User 463088]

Ugh, we're going to do this aren't we?

 

[cartoon_soldier]

As for the poll it is simple, Trump got back more Republican support post debate. I mean that's what he did whole debate. So that is not unexepcted that gap would close.

 

[whyamihere]

Post-debate and one day sample. I wouldn't read much into it, although I'm sure things will tighten naturally.

The one day sample is sort of annoying, but yeah.

 

[Boke1879]

Ugh, we're going to do this aren't we?

Getting stressed over nothing lol

 

[Paskil]

Vic Berger is a gentleman and a scholar

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iOjZJnjkqc4

This might be his best. Hard to top the republican debates, but this was close/better.

 

[Nairume]

Where has Karl Rove been during this whole election, I don't think I've seen him since election night 2012

He was on Fox News on Sunday struggling to distract viewers from how disastrous last weekend was to them.

 

[Roland_Gunner]

As for the poll it is simple, Trump got back more Republican support post debate. I mean that's what he did whole debate. So that is not unexepcted that gap would close.

Yeah, looking at the breakdown its very possible that the gap widens a bit as Republicans get sick of the intra-party war and slip back to Johnson or undecided.

 

[Zukkoyaki]

Man, Republicans hate Hillary almost as much as Neogaf hates Watch Dogs.

 

[Joeytj]

That's a good poll people, relax. And that's immediately after the debate ended. Trump has been getting horrible press since yesterday and today now, so it's very likely the debate won't matter, like we already knew.

 

[nature boy]

Loath as I am to say it, Bam Bam's right. This is probably noise.

(Particularly since this may well literally be them appending a one-day sample onto the 11/14 point poll)

If you only look at the toplines, sure.

If you look into the other questions, he somehow has consolidated some Rs.

 

[Spoiled Milk]

 

[BrokenFiction]

John Harwood ‏@JohnJHarwood 2m2 minutes ago

to be clear: these new numbers aggregate 500 interviews pre-debate (Sat/Sun in midst of tape storm) and 400 post-debate on Monday night

 

[Emarv]

Ugh, we're going to do this aren't we?

It's like a roller coaster. First we ride it up all the way to the highest of highs. Then we starting thinking the roller coaster is gonna explode and we're all gonna die oh god make it stop make it stop.

Rinse, repeat for the next month!

 

[whyamihere]

This is a ~problematic~ argument

https://twitter.com/mtracey/status/785903707170963456

@mtracey
Despite the best efforts of Clinton media bots to propagandize people into believing otherwise, the new Wikileaks release is 100% authentic.

 

[Link]

.

Seriously, fuck these people. This country is so backwards.

 

[ShironRedshift]

.

Excellent, so the debate seems to have rallied Trump's base around him again, but not actually expanded it. This also seems to indicate that it's definitely Trump that they give a fuck about, and not down ticket voices like Ryan or McCain, meaning that Trump's debate performance has indeed put them in a very awkward position with no good moves. Good, good.

 

[kevin1025]

.

His supporters must have hardcore whiplash with all those hard turns.

 

[B-Dubs]

This is a ~problematic~ argument

https://twitter.com/mtracey/status/785903707170963456

And we know this how exactly?

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

Paul LePage is going to win the 2020 nomination.

Republican voters fucking love Trumpism if they're back just after Trump screamed a lot of racist stuff while promising to destroy the constitution.

 

[Angry Grimace]

Honestly, the numbers are wide enough that I'm only really looking at them to gauge their impact on downticket races. Clinton is going to win, the only real question I see is the margin.

I don't think the discussion of whether "Trump's voters came back" is a realistic question to try and solve because the nature of polls and the rapid fire of these scandals makes it very difficult to gauge the impact of any specific event.

 

[BrokenFiction]

This is a ~problematic~ argument

https://twitter.com/mtracey/status/785903707170963456

I'm not saying he's wrong, but where's *his* proof?

 

[Link]

Even if he's right, who cares? There's nothing damning in those transcripts.

 

[Boke1879]

The fact that the news is still talk about Trumps tape and reporting on his attqcks on the GOP is good. He's creating unnecessary attention to all that. I'm interested if he says anything tonight about his little war.

 

[Cheebo]

New NBC/WSJ polling:

September: Clinton +6
After Trump video: Clinton +11
After debate: Clinton +7
Combined Sat-Sun-Mon: Clinton +9

https://twitter.com/ryanstruyk/status/785906242044780544

I love how Trump bounces back 4% from that debate.

I guess we should have known the video numbers were too good to last, oh well.

 

[metalslimer]

Haha if people panic. Nooo we going to win by 8-10 instead of 15

 

[Link]

Also, Marshawn Evens needs her own show. Girl was on fire.

 

[Spoiled Milk]

Why is the margin ~10 pts for the Democratic candidate and I'm still wondering if we'll get the house? What kind of country is that? Is that a fair representation of the people?

Gerrymandering is evil.

 

[Link]

Haha if people panic. Nooo we going to win by 8-10 instead of 15

That could be the difference between winning and losing the House.