If this happens, it won't be anywhere near the level of Trumps civil war.
Something disastrous would have to happen for Hillary for this to even be a possibility.
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PoliGAF 2016 |OT12| The last days of the Republic
- Thread starter Bronx-Man
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If this happens, it won't be anywhere near the level of Trumps civil war.
Something disastrous would have to happen for Hillary for this to even be a possibility.
gutter_trash
Banned
I died
Not sure if serious.
That's what I'm thinking. Even if Trump really did win some republicans back, we still have Clinton ahead 9/10 points in one of the best polls in the industry. It's amusing reading this thread sometimes.
BotoxAgent
Member
It's coming, but it's going to be a while. Minorities will keep the far-lefties in check for a long time. The issue on that front is Demographics as younger people fall into the far-left bubble due to the post-internet polarization.
gutter_trash
Banned
and Hillary is the most Liberal viable Presidential candidate in US history.
Far-Lefties talk about Progressive slogans while Hillary will be busy signing Progressive Bills, maybe those bills are too complicated for activists to read, they will complain no matter what
Far-Lefties talk about Progressive slogans while Hillary will be busy signing Progressive Bills, maybe those bills are too complicated for activists to read, they will complain no matter what
BrokenFiction
Member
daveweigel ‏@daveweigel 4m4 minutes ago
Questioner asks about Merrick Garland.
Grassley: "You had to ask that one?"
Cotton: "Is this a grenade I should jump on?"
Questioner asks about Merrick Garland.
Grassley: "You had to ask that one?"
Cotton: "Is this a grenade I should jump on?"
titiklabingapat
Member
Guise, there was no way Clinton was gonna win with 14% margin. It was always going to normalize and if 8% to 9% is normal, then it's still a fucking blow out.
I actually expect it to settle around 5% to 6% and maybe even 7% depending on this civil war happening and the timing of the other oppo drops. Still a landslide in today's standard with a good chance of flipping the House and the Senate guaranteed to be in Democrats' hands. I hope the chicken little-ing is bearable then. Remember, Obama won with a 6% margin in 2008.
Hopium is a hell of a drug lol
I actually expect it to settle around 5% to 6% and maybe even 7% depending on this civil war happening and the timing of the other oppo drops. Still a landslide in today's standard with a good chance of flipping the House and the Senate guaranteed to be in Democrats' hands. I hope the chicken little-ing is bearable then. Remember, Obama won with a 6% margin in 2008.
Hopium is a hell of a drug lol
NYCmetsfan
Banned
https://twitter.com/adamjohnsonNYC/status/785810340508344320
this is the most frustrating thing. They are pretending they are saying something they are not saying.
Tweeter says he's saying "docs are compromised" actual tweet says "wikileaks is compromised"
but its run with.
this is the most frustrating thing. They are pretending they are saying something they are not saying.
Tweeter says he's saying "docs are compromised" actual tweet says "wikileaks is compromised"
but its run with.
yeah, the presidential election is over.
I am just hoping for the House
Worst case you will just have to be patient. If the House Seat/Popular Vote ratio is screwed enough it might fast track anti gerrymandering action to the Scalia-less supreme court.
BotoxAgent
Member
sadly this will probably be the case
If she gets the House and Senate, the fillibuster likely dies and the JFK/LBJ analogies start popping up immediately.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
This is disgusting. Like anything that happened in that debate was worth people jumping back for.
The bold is what I'm saying. You need to be able to independently verify that a leak is real before reporting on it or you wind up like Politico did last week and look like a goddamned fool. Once you verify then you go to print. Documents can be easily faked, it's why making sure they're real is so important.
Also, I don't like the idea that the "where did this come from?" is being portrayed as something that doesn't matter. Unless there's incontrovertible proof that what you're being given is real, it absolutely matters. If some random dude sends you a piece of information that you can't verify and doesn't tell you how or where they got their hands on it then you have no idea if it's real or not. The where can matter quite a bit, it goes to credibility.
NYCmetsfan
Banned
The far lefties on twitter don't want progressive bills. They want the US taken to task, to not be able to use moral authority (the right is accurate that some on the left wanted this but wrong in how small the group is and how relatively powerless it is). Its why the focus so much on foreign affairs as its easy to spread disinformation and effect outcomes and where they have many legitiment grevences (though their actual grevences aren't that accepted in the general public).
There arguments are always criticisms, never constructive. There is never an answer on what they want," just stop doing this stop doing that". No alternative.
BrokenFiction
Member
Goldwater got 38%
Mondale got 40%
There's a natural floor for the POTUS. The rest of the noise is just about the down-ballot elections.
Trump's behavior in the 2nd debate was that of a big child fighting against the moderators and threatening Hillary that he'll send her to prison. It's so frustrating that people would coddle to this overgrown man child rapist because they actually like this kind of behavior.
I'm really not bedwetting, so much infuriated by these kind of priveleged assholes.
I'm really not bedwetting, so much infuriated by these kind of priveleged assholes.
The blue is for the blood of the upper-class WASP liberal choosing to support socialist policies out of self-defense.
BrokenFiction
Member
Red Pantsuits as far as the eye can see...
Bonen no Max'd
Banned
Is this "when the Democrats become the conservatives" or "when the Democrats become the socialists"?
The first debate Donald had a blue tie and Hillary was in the red suit.
Tim and Mike had Red and Blue ties respectively.
Second round with Hillary and Donald he's back in the red tie and she didn't use primary colors.
I eagerly await the sartorial choices of the third and final Presidential debate, foreign policy demands good dress sense.
Officerrob
Banned
Republicans have dreamed of a full on Clinton assault on a massive public stage for decades, it's not surprising
Brawly Likes to Brawl
Member
All this post tells me is that you don't quite understand the circumstances that allowed Trump to sweep the primaries.
Win margin actually matters. Imagine what Obama could've done if he had a cooperative House and Senate.
My concern is the media narrative. That is what affects popular perceptions and poll results which in turn affects likely voters.
Guys remember three simple things about these polls:
1.) The lead is still enormous, senate+house winning numbers.
2.) Obama outperformed most of his polls both elections. Most undecideds lean Hillary, and third party candidate leavers will disproportionately vote Hill. Also last remaining voters tend to go toward perceived winner. Numbers support this.
3.) Hillary's data-driven ground game - upgraded even from Obama 2012 - literally is universes ahead of Trump. And Hill has all the money while fundraisers drying up for Trump relative.
This race is over and we are gonna win house+senate. Chill. Mark this post.
1.) The lead is still enormous, senate+house winning numbers.
2.) Obama outperformed most of his polls both elections. Most undecideds lean Hillary, and third party candidate leavers will disproportionately vote Hill. Also last remaining voters tend to go toward perceived winner. Numbers support this.
3.) Hillary's data-driven ground game - upgraded even from Obama 2012 - literally is universes ahead of Trump. And Hill has all the money while fundraisers drying up for Trump relative.
This race is over and we are gonna win house+senate. Chill. Mark this post.
You can go back to the time of the debate in this thread and see people panic in real time when Clinton gave a weak answer. Poligaf is highly volatile.
Those poll numbers tell me that either the post-tape sample was off (very possible, 400 people) or it was the result of some Trump voters feeling a little shame and not being willing to take a poll. I'm more than happy with the 4-7 point win that we're likely headed for.
excelsiorlef
Member
Also worth considering that many third party voters who do actually vote third party will vote Democrat downticket
TheLostBigBoss
Banned
PoliGAF is the NowCast of political talk
Well, I'm kind of hoping the GOP collapses in flames and we get a one party Democratic state for a while, following which the not fascist business Republicans form a new party with the moderate Democrats and the left wing of the Dems claims the party mantle. A man can dream~~~
Fragamemnon
Member
agreed with high confidence. the rout is on. If Trump was willing to lose with dignity they could keep the House. But this is Trump, who doesn't even know what that word means.
Rebels are fanatics, guys who drop chlorine bombs on residential neighborhoods are A-OK!
Cunt.
TheLostBigBoss
Banned
This kills the democratic party
So NPR just had an interesting segment where Scientific American sent 20 science questions out to each presidential candidate to see how they answered. The representative from Scientific American said there weren't trick questions, it was designed as an open ended test to measure how a candidate deals with objective scientific fact. While they ran this test in 2012 and the candidates were fairly close in score, the two candidates in 2016 couldn't be more different.
The scores were Hillary 64, Stein 44, Johnson 34, and Trump 7.
http://www.wbur.org/hereandnow/2016/10/11/presidential-candidates-science
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/grading-the-presidential-candidates-on-science/
The scores were Hillary 64, Stein 44, Johnson 34, and Trump 7.
http://www.wbur.org/hereandnow/2016/10/11/presidential-candidates-science
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/grading-the-presidential-candidates-on-science/
You get your liberal party, I get my socialist party.
BotoxAgent
Member
Plus the whole Republican mutiny narrative hasn't even fully baked in yet
Black Mamba
Member
I'm going to explain this because people are really over-analyzing things so I will over-analyze.
1. The poll could be showing depressed Trump supporters in the first two days thanks to the tape (believing he fucked up and they will lose) followed by a rally thanks to the debate performance attacking Hillary on everything for the last 20+ years (only works for base).
2. The poll could be showing a change which is largely irrelevant since she leads by 7 even in that poll!
3. The difference could simply be noise.
4. If Hillary is actually up 10 or 11, getting a single day where she's up 7 IS WHAT WE'D EXPECT TO HAPPEN OFTEN
Chill the fuck out. Any of those things are possible. All that matters is poll after poll is not only showing Clinton winning but winning by large margins. Even in the stupid LAT polls, people are believing Hillary will win more and more on their predicted winner thing.
So fucking stop. The polls are great for Hillary. And the longer this continues, the liklier GOP turnout is depressed and a wave will come.
MAMBA OUT
IggyChooChoo
Member
I agree it is gross from the perspective of human morality and issues, but it's a good sign that the deplorables are affected by bandwagoning. The more Trump looks like a loser, the more we can convince to stay home. And the fact that he's likely not only to be a loser, but a LEGENDARILY YUUGE loser is going to penetrate their bubble more and more, even without more oppo drops.
So NPR just had an interesting segment where Scientific American sent 20 science questions out to each presidential candidate to see how they answered. The representative from Scientific American said there weren't trick questions, it was designed as an open ended test to measure how a candidate deals with objective scientific fact. While they ran this test in 2012 and the candidates were fairly close in score, the two candidates in 2016 couldn't be more different.
The scores were Hillary 64, Stein 44, Johnson 34, and Trump 7.
http://www.wbur.org/hereandnow/2016/10/11/presidential-candidates-science
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/grading-the-presidential-candidates-on-science/
Pretty interesting, though I thought some of the knocks against Stein were unfair. I don't care for Stein that much but some of the rational for docking her points seems unfair.
Also, this is biased towards nuclear energy. Which actually I support. But also understand the rationale of those against it.
RustyNails
Member
4) More trump tapes are going to leak and/or more bombshells from WaPo/NYT regarding taxes/charities.
Bonen no Max'd
Banned
Woah I had no idea Patrick Murphy was so young. His first presidential election was 2004!
Yes, we all want a big landslide, and that's still on the table, but you can't react to polls like this.
Again, this is what everybody expected immediately after the debate ended, with Trump stopping the bleeding. That was Sunday night, and the narrative changed completely by Monday morning and the tape, it's fallout, Trump's body language in the debate and the GOP civil war have dominated the headlines since then.
Chill, GOTV and vote.
Naw. Red is too agro bro.
VendettaRed07
Member
Don't think a 7-9 point win is enough to flip the house
Has to be double digits
Has to be double digits
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