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PoliGAF 2016 |OT12| The last days of the Republic

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B

Bam Bam Baklava

Member
There's a reason why every decent pollster averages things out over 3, 4, or 5 days. If you look at Obama's approval by the daily numbers at Gallup or Rasmussen, it can differ by 5 or more points if you look at the dailies but the average smoothing helps even it out.

Analyzing polling this closely in such tight time frames just opens you up to huge volatility. What's next? Hour by hour? At 2pm the margin was +5, at 6pm the margin was +8.
 
T

thestopsign

Member
I had a friend on Facebook just post this. Thought it was a pretty interesting take. For reference he is a republican law student.

I want to be clear, for anybody deeming last night in any way a Trump "victory" or who loved his "zinger" "...because you'd be in jail" or who is in any way, for any reason, still considering voting for this man:

The lowest part of the ugliest debate in American history was that threat to prosecute.

If a public servant commits some kind of malfeasance, we have a system for prosecuting such a crime, in a way which may not, I'll grant, be "non-partisan," or immune from some degree of corruption. HOWEVER, it is a system with myriad, multitudinous safeguards, separations of authority, independence, and judicious ascertaining of legal fact. That system, for better or worse, has functioned here, with respect to HRC. You may not like the outcome personally, you may think she gamed the system. It doesn't matter what you think, because absolutely nobody who was not part of the investigation can state with any authority that it came to the wrong conclusion. Because that conclusion is *legal* in nature: not "is HRC bad and stupid," but "Is there a legal case with which to prosecute her, which the evidence bears out any hope of success by going forward with?"

So when Trump says that he would "order the Attorney General to select a special prosecutor" and threatens in no uncertain terms that if successfully elected, he is intent on making sure this would result in HRC "being in jail," I want to dispense with the comparisons to Hitler, because that's facile, and the internet loves picking over such knee-jerk moves.

I want to talk about Sulla. I want to talk about Marius. I want to talk about Marc Antony, I want to talk about Octavian. We're talking about political tactics from the time where a real republic was upended, and finally came crashing down, because threats to political opponents *exactly* like Trump made last night were the hallmarks of the day. Hitler's system? That played out differently. "Win first under the guise of something legitimate, then kill everybody." But this threat - in open forum - was different. And harkens back to a different age altogether. Sulla, Marius, Octavian, and Antony. The men who killed the Roman Republic. You have to go back to *them* to find, in the Western tradition pertaining to democracies and republics and the men who endangered or ended them, a situation where the promise "If I win, then there will be retribution for opposing me" is enshrined in the normality of political discourse. Sulla, according to Plutarch, "made the streets flow with blood . . . many who had not any witness to say they had opposed him, only that by killing them Sulla pleased his adherents." Of Marius, any man "who did not greet him with salute or salutation was, by his men, to be murdered." Marc Antony is recorded by Cassius Dio to have promised Cicero, during the early days of the Second Triumvirate, that if he ever spoke out against him, he would "nail his head and hands to the Senate rostrum;" after Cicero delivered the Philippics against Antony's mismanagement, self-dealing, and philandering, Antony sent soldiers to his house, killed him, and did exactly that: nailed the head and hands of a political enemy to the speaking stage of the center of the Roman state, and the former shrine of its republican values.

It is an exercise in insanity to attempt to defend Donald Trump not only for his most recent incendiary remarks, but in light of this: his avowed method of conducting affairs. "If you're not with me, you're against me" is a far fall from the days of Tip O'Neill and Ronald Reagan having a scotch in the Oval Office and walking out with a compromise, but we've lost in this country the belief that politics is or ought to be about "compromise" at all. That's a place we need to get back to. But one way or another, we should all be able to agree that, in a presidential debate, when one of the candidates - standing in front of, no less, a wall plastered with the text of our Constitution itself - took us, in the political discourse of a democratic republic, to "If you're not with me, you're going to jail." That was not just a threat to prosecute, that was a threat to *proscribe.*

...*That* should be enough for anybody in the Trump camp who still values anything about what America is supposed to be to vote for somebody - anybody - else. Or stay home. And if you are so pissed off and angry at... whatever. Washington, Obama, the "East Coast/Establishment Types," the overall liberalization of social values, the inexorable tide of globalization... SO pissed off at those things that you still refuse to abandon Trump, then yes. I want this to be clear right now:
You are "deplorable."

Not because you are rhetorically lumped in with the "worst of the worst" of Trump's supporters (of which there are many)... but because you have opted to sacrifice the very notion that our country can do better than either Trump or HRC, by siding with a man who, rather than drive us to do better, is committed to tearing it all down for good.
Click to expand...
 
B

BrokenFiction

Member
whyamihere said:
That's sort of where I am with this. Greenwald et al. already is saying that this isn't Russia due to Russia hysteria over inconvenient truths because we can't trust the US government assessment after Iraq.

Again! This is the erosion of institutions.



Exactly.
Click to expand...

I got fed up with Greenwald. Had to mute him until after the election. Guy is off his rocker lately.
 
N

NYCmetsfan

Banned
whyamihere said:
This is a ~problematic~ argument

https://twitter.com/mtracey/status/785903707170963456
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I'm really frustrated with the media with these emails. As Fallon said they're not FOIA and are stolen by a foreign power but hey lets just randomly dig through them and tweet screencaps!

The funnest thing is

Glenn's main complaint is people saying it directly went from Russian intellegence to Trump

and he hypes up this article https://twitter.com/ggreenwald/status/785905932123320320 which pretty much says no, the probably just used twitter bots (which russia controls http://www.thedailybeast.com/articl...itter-feed-to-promote-lies-and-trump-too.html)

This is not funny. It is terrifying. The Russians engage in a sloppy disinformation effort and, before the day is out, the Republican nominee for president is standing on a stage reciting the manufactured story as truth. How did this happen? Who in the Trump campaign was feeding him falsehoods straight from the Kremlin? (The Trump campaign did not respond to a request for comment.)
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glenn is intentionally misrepresenting what he's saying here and ignoring donald trump jr's constant interaction with russian and racist trolls to promote conspiracies
 
D

DataStream

Member
Trump hasn't reached his final form yet. He has so many scandals and lawsuits held up by the thinnest of threads and a giant cavern of unknown monsters.

The Clintons have a wax museum. An afternoon's divergence on a rainy day but we all know what the contents look like.
 
N

NYCmetsfan

Banned
whyamihere said:
Again! This is the erosion of institutions.

Exactly.
Click to expand...

And this is why I fear the left. They have no problem doing this and bernie was egging them on.

Only "the people" mattered and their "revolution"

again he's not the issue but these people latched on to him for a reason and aren't going away. They want to burn everything down.
 
B

Blatz

Member
Vahagn said:
I love that they couldn't even be honest about "trump having multiple affairs and accused multiple times of sexual assault".

It would still be hypocritical but their immoral scumbags so they couldn't even get that right.
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Yes but the difference is we know these things about Trump BEFORE he's elected POTUS. It doesn't excuse anything, but it is important. That and democrats don't often play the evangelical card. Supporting Trump in the face of this goes against one of the core tenants of the GOP. Not so much for the Dems.
 
B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
whyamihere said:
That's sort of where I am with this. Greenwald et al. already is saying that this isn't Russia due to Russia hysteria over inconvenient truths because we can't trust the US government assessment after Iraq.

Again! This is the erosion of institutions.



Exactly.
Click to expand...

I mean, trusting anything out there without independently verifying it it a horrible practice for a reporter.

Going back to Greenwald, like I told metsfan earlier, he's just an ideologue with a very specific ideology. He's made himself look like an ass a few times this summer alone, especially with that Brazil leak. Oh especially with that Brazil leak. If it makes the US or Europe look bad he's all over it.
 
M

metalslimer

Member
Lol at msnbc saying its not good to have your private emails shared when they are the ones doing it. I wouldn't want Trump dirty laundry hacked by a foreign power. If someone leaks something thats one thing but we are complicit in Russian meddling

Also lol white people. They are looking for any slight reason to vote for white nationalism.
 
B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
NYCmetsfan said:
He's downplaying the fact that, you know, the FBI knows the Russians are the ones who hacked it.
Click to expand...

And that there's a few cyber security firms out there who have looked into it themselves and corroborated it.

Certain segments of the left have a really dangerous streak running through them that's going to cause a lot of damage if it can't be kept under control.
 
N

NYCmetsfan

Banned
B-Dubs said:
Going back to Greenwald, like I told metsfan, he's just an ideologue with a very specific ideology. He's made himself look like an ass a few times this summer alone, especially with that Brazil leak. Oh especially with that Brazil leak.
Click to expand...

The problem is he has a following.

His article is premised on something the Newsweek story that never was in the article. They're criticism is the tweet was too short handed and a technically.
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
Oh I see Michael Tracey went to crazy town after I stopped paying attention during the primary.

@mtracey
HRC endorsed war in Syria last night; Trump urged cooperation with Russia. Let's see Dems grapple with that reality.
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@mtracey
Trump also argued against arming "rebels," while HRC's stated policy is to continue supplying weapons to fanatics (such as Al Qaeda)
Click to expand...

@mtracey
HRC, Tim Kaine, and Mike Pence all basically agree with respect to Syria. The only one calling for a deviation from orthodoxies is Trump.
Click to expand...

@mtracey
I don't recommend voting Trump. Never have. But he's the only one bucking the disastrous bipartisan FP consensus. That's just the truth.
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The far Left was a mistake.
 
Link

Link

The Autumn Wind
metalslimer said:
Also lol white people. They are looking for any slight reason to vote for white nationalism.
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It's really sad how any time Hillary coughs or Trump doesn't throw up all over himself, the polls instantly narrow again.

You're right, literally any excuse.
 
N

NYCmetsfan

Banned
B-Dubs said:
And that there's a few cyber security firms out there who have looked into it themselves and corroborated it.

Certain segments of the left have a really dangerous streak running through them that's going to cause a lot of damage if it can't be kept under contro.
Click to expand...

that's what I'm fearful of

whyamihere said:
Oh I see Michael Tracey went to crazy town after I stopped paying attention during the primary.
Click to expand...

Nice to know he doesn't mention aleppo

and for god's sake THERE ALREADY IS WAR IN SYRIA

the debate is how to stop it idiot.
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
whyamihere said:
Oh I see Michael Tracey went to crazy town after I stopped paying attention during the primary.









The far Left was a mistake.
Click to expand...

Trump has repeatedly said he will start a war with Iran almost immediately after entering office.

Michael Tracey is the dumbest person I have ever seen.

But I have been saying that Michael Tracey is the dumbest person in the world for a few months! People got annoyed by it even.
 
B

Bam Bam Baklava

Member
The left's own Trump civil war is coming. There's no doubt about it. Especially if Clinton were to win and is unpopular heading into 2020. There will be challengers and revolts.
 
D

Dierce

Member
pigeon said:
You guys realize the one-day samples are extremely small, right?
Click to expand...

Not only that, they are using a single day of polling to fit a narrative. That is not how polls work. They are basically using the same methodology daily tacking polls use which are unreliable.

It needs to be spread out across many days. What sucks most about this is that it is only done to push a narrative and that narrative will be that the orange turd campaign is showing signs of stabilizing. NBC jumped the shark on this...
 
R

Roland_Gunner

Member
Bam Bam Baklava said:
The left's own Trump civil war is coming. There's no doubt about it. Especially if Clinton were to win and is unpopular heading into 2020. There will be challengers and revolts.
Click to expand...

Fortunately the far left is still very small comparatively. That's why Stein is getting around 2% nationally. If they continue to grow it could be a problem in a decade or so.
 
B

Boke1879

Member
We won't truly see the reflection of everything in the polls until later this week IMO. Things are going to tighten a bit naturally but it doesn't help that they keep talking about his comments in the news.

Now the man has openly on twitter decided to go after the GOP. I hope to god he goes off the rails at his rally tonight. And he just might.

That said Trumps base IS the GOP base. It's why establishment republicans are in a tight spot
 
R

RustyNails

Member
So I was right. Trump brought a few deplorables back into the fold. This is good news, as they were going to come back anyway. Good job trump. So about those independents then (the real ones)? Even with his base back he's still 10 points down. This election is over. We should be focusing on the Congressional races. Aaron, bring out the crayons.
 
Link

Link

The Autumn Wind
Boy am I glad I didn't end up supporting Bernie in the primary. Talk about a stink I wouldn't want to be associated with. Pure embarrassment.
 
T

Toxi

Banned
B-Dubs said:
And that there's a few cyber security firms out there who have looked into it themselves and corroborated it.

Certain segments of the left have a really dangerous streak running through them that's going to cause a lot of damage if it can't be kept under control.
Click to expand...
Fucking seriously. The DNC dump included people's social security numbers. How the hell can people critical of the government infringing our privacy be okay with that shit?
 
C

Cheebo

Banned
Dierce said:
Not only that, they are using a single day of polling to fit a narrative. That is not how polls work. They are basically using the same methodology daily tacking polls use which are unreliable.

It needs to be spread out across many days. What sucks most about this is that it is only done to push a narrative and that narrative will be that the orange turd campaign is showing signs of stabilizing. NBC jumped the shark on this...
Click to expand...

MSNBC/NBC is already heavily running with Trump stabilizing narrative pretty quickly.
 
B

Bam Bam Baklava

Member
Cheebo said:
No, it isnt 1/3rd of those polled as it typical. They over-sampled Monday for post-debate impact.

Per John Hardwood it is half and half. Sat Sun combined is 500 polled, Monday is 400.
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Even disregarding samples, single day polls are not done for good reason. Let's not forget Zogby's daily number showing McCain up by 1 on October 31st only for the next day to show Obama leading by a decent amount again. It's just a matter of volatility.
 
B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Bam Bam Baklava said:
The left's own Trump civil war is coming. There's no doubt about it. Especially if Clinton were to win and is unpopular heading into 2020. There will be challengers and revolts.
Click to expand...

Luckily she's very popular in the party itself. I don't think anyone serious will rise up to challenge her as a result. I'm more worried about 2024 if I'm honest.
 
B

balladofwindfishes

Member
Bam Bam Baklava said:
The left's own Trump civil war is coming. There's no doubt about it. Especially if Clinton were to win and is unpopular heading into 2020. There will be challengers and revolts.
Click to expand...

The tea party was endorsed and encouraged by the GOP, and grew into the GOP. The Democrats won't do the same for the far left, and it won't evolve past niche status. The Democrats have no real need to bring the far left into them, since the far left are fickle, unreliable voters.
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
B-Dubs said:
And that there's a few cyber security firms out there who have looked into it themselves and corroborated it.

Certain segments of the left have a really dangerous streak running through them that's going to cause a lot of damage if it can't be kept under control.
Click to expand...

Well, they're downplaying it because they don't believe it and neither do you, they say. Again -- it's about eroding trust in institutions that become susceptible towards disinformation because they've contorted themselves against a pro-Western reality where there is ample evidence that the Russians did hack the DNC/Podesta/etc.

Look, I think that reporters should report on the leaks. Someone leaked Trump's taxes. But I also think that, with the taxes, they went out of their way to see if they were legitimate before they published them. That standard should probably apply here.

I'm also annoyed with the idea that we are allowed to peer into a campaign's personal emails in the name of journalism, but we can't know who is providing WikiLeaks with their material. Seems like a double standard.
 
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