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PoliGAF 2016 |OT12| The last days of the Republic

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S

Simon Belmont

Banned
SG-17 said:
So, taking this out of this thread's internal culture you are saying that 538's algorithm is flawed and shouldn't have much stock put in it, while the NYT's and Princeton's are more accurate and reliable.
Click to expand...

Ever since 538 got bought out by ESPN they seem to be pushing a horse race model. Their model seems way more volatile to any bump in Trump support, while positive polls for Hillary don't move the needle as much. That's my take, anyways.
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
I awaken to "pussyfooting" and Ohio blowing-up.. nice.

Pussyfooting, Dottie?
hqdefault.jpg


27 days.
 
M

Maledict

Member
SG-17 said:
So, taking this out of this thread's internal culture you are saying that 538's algorithm is flawed and shouldn't have much stock put in it, while the NYT's and Princeton's are more accurate and reliable.
Click to expand...

Bluntly yes. For whatever reason 538, and Nate in particular, have not had a good year, they completely failed during the republican primaries, and since then have developed a model which is significantly more volatile than any of the others and seems to heavily favour Trump at weird times (to the point where it was taking polls that showed HIllary in the lead in swing states and making them a positive for Trump).
 
U

User 463088

Banned
SG-17 said:
So, taking this out of this thread's internal culture you are saying that 538's algorithm is flawed and shouldn't have much stock put in it, while the NYT's and Princeton's are more accurate and reliable.
Click to expand...

We just don't like Bad Nate on Twitter. His model is fineish. Really, just look at all of them and then, like, pray they're all right. :p
 
S

Slurpy2k20

Member
Z

Zukkoyaki

Member
SG-17 said:
So, taking this out of this thread's internal culture you are saying that 538's algorithm is flawed and shouldn't have much stock put in it, while the NYT's and Princeton's are more accurate and reliable.
Click to expand...
538's model has just seemed absurd at times. It shifts so much and so quickly that it's difficult to take it seriously as an actual forecast/prediction. Nate Silver has explained that it's designed to overreact to trends and what it actually does is spazz and overreact to single polls in a way that doesn't make sense. Two weeks ago it literally shifted 7% because of a single poll.

Just over two weeks ago it had Clinton's chances at about 51% and now it's around 86-87%. A proper forecast shouldn't ebb and flow that. Other analysts and forecasters have said a model like this is nothing more than a snapshot of where the race is today and a poor prediction tool.
 
T

Ty4on

Member
Zukkoyaki said:
Just over two weeks ago it had Clinton's chances at about 51% and now it's around 86-87%. A proper forecast shouldn't ebb and flow that. Other analysts and forecasters have said a model like this is nothing more than a snapshot of where the race is today and a poor prediction tool.
Click to expand...
How can you predict things like Trump tapes and the first debate performance tho?
 
C

Cheebo

Banned
sazzy said:
so do you guys think hillary will win
in 2020
Click to expand...

It is extremely rare for a party to hold the white house for 3 terms, No one has for 4 times since FDR/Truman.....so the likelihood is pretty remote. Especially if the is still very divisive of a figure and the GOP nominates a more establishment friendly figure.
 
U

User 85168

Banned
Zukkoyaki said:
538's model has just seemed absurd at times. It shifts so much and so quickly that it's difficult to take it seriously as an actual forecast/prediction. Nate Silver has explained that it's designed to overreact to trends and what it actually does is spazz and overreact to single polls in a way that doesn't make sense. Two weeks ago it literally shifted 7% because of a single poll.

Just over two weeks ago it had Clinton's chances at about 51% and now it's around 86-87%. A proper forecast shouldn't ebb and flow that. Other analysts and forecasters have said a model like this is nothing more than a snapshot of where the race is today and a poor prediction tool.
Click to expand...

Okay. Let's be clear, a model changing like that doesn't mean it's a poor model! It doubts the state of the race more than other models, and is quicker to react to trends. The polls and the state of the race did change a lot! A model should be reacting to Hillary getting a big bump in the polls.
 
E

eBay Huckster

Member
early voting's been open in ohio for the last 95 minutes

i was in and out of my board of elections in 15 (with a line that was well over 150 people by the time i entered the building)
 
T

Ty4on

Member
Cheebo said:
It is extremely rare for a party to hold the white house for 3 terms, No one has for 4 times since FDR/Truman.....so the likelihood is pretty remote. Especially if the is still very divisive of a figure and the GOP nominates a more establishment friendly figure.
Click to expand...
How likely is it Clinton doesn't win the 2020 primary if she's not very popular? That seems to happen very rarely.
 
S

sturgboski

Member
metalslimer said:
So is Conway going to get a job at Fox News after this?
Click to expand...

She can take Hannity's spot. He will be hosting "Better Call Sean" on the Trump News Network.

Ty4on said:
How likely is it Clinton doesn't win the 2020 primary if she's not very popular? That seems to happen very rarely.
Click to expand...

I think 2020 is going to depend on how down ballot goes this year and midterms in 2018. If she has an obstructionist Congress and cant get anything done, then I am sure the seething hatred and need for change will be at the forefront and affect her and the Democrats chances of winning in 2020. Basically, if we want to keep things going and not let regressive Republicans pull back any advancements made over the last 8 years (and whatever Hillary can get done), we need to vote midterm (I really need to remember to do that).
 
B

balladofwindfishes

Member
Cheebo said:
It is extremely rare for a party to hold the white house for 3 terms, No one has for 4 times since FDR/Truman.....so the likelihood is pretty remote. Especially if the is still very divisive of a figure and the GOP nominates a more establishment friendly figure.
Click to expand...

There are no patterns like this in elections. Everyone said right off the bat Clinton couldn't win because we've never had back to back Democrats in modern times. And yet here we are. Ohio always picks the president. And yet this year it's meaningless.

We're witnessing a party re-alignment on the GOP side, and that's likely not going to be entirely ironed out in time for 2020. These things generally take awhile.
 
R

Roland_Gunner

Member
Ty4on said:
How likely is it Clinton doesn't win the 2020 primary if she's not very popular? That seems to happen very rarely.
Click to expand...

The last time an incumbent even had a serious challenge in the primary was Johnson back during the height of Vietnam. I guess you could also consider Ford / Regan in '76 but Ford wasn't elected and Watergate. Baring a 2008 style economic collapse or some horrible international conflict, Clinton will sail to the nomination.
 
C

Cheebo

Banned
balladofwindfishes said:
There are no patterns like this in elections. Everyone said right off the bat Clinton couldn't win because we've never had back to back Democrats in modern times. And yet here we are. Ohio always picks the president. And yet this year it's meaningless.

We're witnessing a party re-alignment on the GOP side, and that's likely not going to be entirely ironed out in time for 2020. These things generally take awhile.
Click to expand...

I would love if the base only picks Trump like figures from here on out but we should prepare for establishment to wrestle control back in 2020 and put up someone like Ryan. It's way too soon to be hopeful about winning 4 in a row.
 
Tal Shiar Agent

Tal Shiar Agent

Member
SexyFish said:
I think 538 is in general way more volatile, and Silver's emphasis on certain polls just seems odd. Cohn and Wang's explanations are both a lot more in depth, while Silver sometimes seems to whine about people complaining about his methods.
Click to expand...

Simon Belmont said:
Ever since 538 got bought out by ESPN they seem to be pushing a horse race model. Their model seems way more volatile to any bump in Trump support, while positive polls for Hillary don't move the needle as much. That's my take, anyways.
Click to expand...

Maledict said:
Bluntly yes. For whatever reason 538, and Nate in particular, have not had a good year, they completely failed during the republican primaries, and since then have developed a model which is significantly more volatile than any of the others and seems to heavily favour Trump at weird times (to the point where it was taking polls that showed HIllary in the lead in swing states and making them a positive for Trump).
Click to expand...

adam387 said:
We just don't like Bad Nate on Twitter. His model is fineish. Really, just look at all of them and then, like, pray they're all right. :p
Click to expand...

Zukkoyaki said:
538's model has just seemed absurd at times. It shifts so much and so quickly that it's difficult to take it seriously as an actual forecast/prediction. Nate Silver has explained that it's designed to overreact to trends and what it actually does is spazz and overreact to single polls in a way that doesn't make sense. Two weeks ago it literally shifted 7% because of a single poll.

Just over two weeks ago it had Clinton's chances at about 51% and now it's around 86-87%. A proper forecast shouldn't ebb and flow that. Other analysts and forecasters have said a model like this is nothing more than a snapshot of where the race is today and a poor prediction tool.
Click to expand...
Cool, thanks for the explanations. I'll just watch all three with bated breath for the next month.


Do we have any statistics on what percentage if the total electorate in early voting states actually vote early? Also, will votes be tallied and be made public before November 8th in early voting states, or are they sealed or kept secret until then?
 
B

balladofwindfishes

Member
Cheebo said:
I would love if the base only picks Trump like figures from here on out but we should prepare for establishment to wrestle control back in 2020 and put up someone like Ryan. It's way too soon to be hopeful about winning 4 in a row.
Click to expand...

The Trump voters are not going to disappear. Brute forcing a moderate candidate runs the high risk of annoying former Trump supporters. Especially if a racist, populist blowhard runs and builds a fan club.
 
P

Parshias7

Member
Does anybody remember crazy Sean Malstrom? This is the guy who ran a blog dedicated to talking about how great the market strategy behind the Wii was and generally just fellate the NES. His blog was pretty alright at the beginning before descending to madness about 3-4 years into the Wii's lifecycle. (I am convinced you could track him becoming unhinged up against when Other M came out, it broke him)

Well he does occasionally make politics posts, like four years ago when he made a bunch talking about why Mitt Romney would absolutely win. (whoops!) Here's the latest whopper:

https://seanmalstrom.wordpress.com/2016/10/10/email-trump-tape/

Included is an opening argument about why the Trump Tape is actually bad news for the Clinton Campaign. I figure you guys could use a good laugh this morning.
 
G

GusBus

Member
John Boehner told Vice he's still voting for Trump.

“He’s not a conservative— he’s barely a Republican. He kind of became a Republican in order to run. But his ideas, when you can get to them, are frankly more in the direction that I would want the country to go to than Hillary Clinton… While Donald wasn’t my first choice, wasn’t my second choice, wasn’t even my third choice, he’s the nominee so I’m going to vote for him.”
Click to expand...

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/john-boehner-donald-trump-229644

So much for the "I always thought he was down to earth/would play ball with Obama" narrative that some folks like to peddle. He's just as spineless as the rest.
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
Lawrence O'Donnell mentioned it last night:

I love that we're going to know in the first hour on Election Night when certain states are too close to call instead of automatically being painted red.

(The meltdowns will begin earlier in the evening, too)
 
N

newshinycd

Member
balladofwindfishes said:
The Trump voters are not going to disappear. Brute forcing a moderate candidate runs the high risk of annoying former Trump supporters. Especially if a racist, populist blowhard runs and builds a fan club.
Click to expand...

I agree. The GOP can't just "pick a moderate". Talk radio and GOP have been enabling the far right for so long, they've become the core of the GOP.
 
K

kadotsu

Banned
It doesn't matter anyways. Regardless of who they will pick in 2020, they won't win as long as they don't accept marriage equality and immigration. They will be double fucked if Clinton actually gets a legislative that enables her to pass some laws because she is well liked when she is in office.
 
O

Oblivion

Fetishing muscular manly men in skintight hosery
GusBus said:
John Boehner told Vice he's still voting for Trump.



http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/john-boehner-donald-trump-229644

So much for the "I always thought he was down to earth/would play ball with Obama" narrative that some folks like to peddle. He's just as spineless as the rest.
Click to expand...

Eh, he's not spineless. This is just who he is. Just cause he occasionally played golf with Obama and didn't call him the n-word, didn't mean that he wasn't a solid Republican. Remember, this is the guy who handed out checks from the tobacco companies to people on the floor of congress back in the day.
 
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