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[whyamihere]

There's a lot in that MULaw poll that's super concerning.

- Even with a decent polling lead nationally ahead of the tapes dropping, the first day of polling (which, admittedly, probably had a small response rate) had Trump up in Wisconsin.

- The race has been trending towards Johnson. Even though he's only led one poll (Loras, lol), it was the last one released before this poll. And it's just gotten tighter.

Not great.

 

[Plinko]

We'll see what happens with early voting, but:

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/786258607616561152

Yikes...not good.

I still think the polls will retract back to where they were before the tape released. Hillary will still win, but it will be a lot closer than it is right now.

 

[CreepingFear]

We really need to kill all white men,except for good ones like me.

 

[Zonar]

If you are in Arizona go here:

https://recorder.maricopa.gov/earlyvotingballot/earlyvotingballotrequest.aspx

 

[Joe Shlabotnik]

That swing is so absurd I'm inclined to throw the whole poll out.

 

[Slayven]

We back to bedwetting?

 

[whyamihere]

Yikes...not good.

I still think the polls will retract back to where they were before the tape released. Hillary will still win, but it will be a lot closer than it is right now.

A lot is probably relative. There is little time and people are voting, which probably blunts a lot of the natural reversion of the mean.

Even from August 8th to September 8th, when Hillary wasn't really campaigning, she went from +8 to +4. That was with no more revelations, a more subdued Trump, and no voting. I don't really see a swing like that happening. Maybe she goes from +7 to +5 or +4, but yeah.

We back to bedwetting?

I guess.

 

[Fragamemnon]

There's a lot in that MULaw poll that's super concerning.

- Even with a decent polling lead nationally ahead of the tapes dropping, the first day of polling (which, admittedly, probably had a small response rate) had Trump up in Wisconsin.

- The race has been trending towards Johnson. Even though he's only led one poll (Loras, lol), it was the last one released before this poll. And it's just gotten tighter.

Not great.

I think once you start slicing data that's already pretty small into even smaller bits the MOE goes so high as to make any comparative analysis very difficult.

If this race was honestly close we'd see money poured into winning it on both sides. I don't see that happening right now. Same with Bayh, though I feel less confident about that race given that, well, it's Evan Bayh.

 

[TheLostBigBoss]

Donald Trump, Mike Pence, and the entire GOP could get sucked into a black hole and people would still think that somehow Clinton is going to lose.

 

[sc0la]

i love the 538 snake

poll only

Off topic. What the fuck is up with this orange cursor on all these screenshots lately?

 

[Emarv]

.

Wowza!

Have fun tiptoeing around your voters, Paul Ryan!!

 

[whyamihere]

I think once you start slicing data that's already pretty small into even smaller bits the MOE goes so high as to make any comparative analysis very difficult.

If this race was honestly close we'd see money poured into winning it on both sides. I don't see that happening right now. Same with Bayh, though I feel less confident about that race given that, well, it's Evan Bayh.

Yeah, the fact that the NRSC just got out of Wisconsin probably says more about the race than anything else.

 

[pigeon]

How could people possibly be panicking right now

 

[nature boy]

We back to bedwetting?

First nuke didn't produced the results folks expected.

 

[Dierce]

We back to bedwetting?

It was too good to be true.

 

[Spoiled Milk]

Off topic. What the fuck is up with this orange cursor on all these screenshots lately?

KDE is a desktop skin for Linux operating systems and I guess somebody decided he wanted an orange cursor?

 

[marrec]

We really need to kill all white men,except for good ones like me.

No I'm sorry all of us just to make sure but don't worry the world will be much better for us afterwards.

 

[Boke1879]

How could people possibly be panicking right now

You know how this place is

 

[metalslimer]

How could people possibly be panicking right now

People want the house at this point and reassurances on the senate. I would hope no one is panicking about the presidential race.

 

[RastaMentality]

Kirkpatrick's new attack ad on McCain paving the way for Trump - http://youtu.be/-_BCSysUkgw

 

[Joe Shlabotnik]

All right let's not be forced to retire "bedwetting" too. Looking askance at one poll and being a little disappointed in ballot requests is not "bedwetting" about the entire race.

 

[whyamihere]

RE: Those Ohio numbers, important to remember that the 3 counties that gave Romney his more total votes were Franklin, Hamilton, and Cuyahoga. It's quite possible that the drop there could be from Urban and Suburban GOPs.

Romney #s:

Franklin: 207,941
Hamilton: 193,326
Cuyahoga: 184,475

That was 22% of Romney vote total in OH. Without party ID and age+race, it's probably hard to tell.

 

[Iolo]

Off topic. What the fuck is up with this orange cursor on all these screenshots lately?

It's sazzy's trademark

 

[Thaedolus]

Kirkpatrick's new attack ad on McCain paving the way for Trump - http://youtu.be/-_BCSysUkgw

My ballot can't get here soon enough! And I called her McCaskill earlier :/

 

[Spoiled Milk]

Yikes...not good.

I still think the polls will retract back to where they were before the tape released. Hillary will still win, but it will be a lot closer than it is right now.

 

[Diablos]

Ah, which horrendous thing will I hear today?

Hahahahaaaaaaaa

Laughing so hard rn

 

[RustyNails]

How could people possibly be panicking right now

Pussygate is not affecting downballot and WI had H and D tied before it.

 

[Loudninja]

Pussygate is not affecting downballot and WI had H and D tied before it.

Who said it would?

I dont get this.

 

[HTupolev]

Who said it would?

I dont get this.

The theory was that it would discourage GOP turnout.

 

[Zukkoyaki]

Yall are looking too far into the day-by-day breakdowns of the MU poll.

According to those numbers, Trump won white voters with college degrees on Friday (pussygate) but lost them on Thursday. All signs and logic should show he should have been doing worse on Friday but he didn't. That's what happens when you chop small pieces of data into smaller chunks, you can find trends and eyebrow raising numbers especially if you're looking for them. Plus, as well all know, polling is noisy by nature.

 

[Lord_Byron28]

Who said it would?

I dont get this.

Perhaps some people were hoping that Trump telling his followers to not vote for republicans down ballot would have an effect.

 

[Beer Monkey]

The theory was that it would discourage GOP turnout.

Trump is doing his best to generate reduced turnout and undervotes. Give it time.

 

[Veritigo_X]

The theory was that it would discourage GOP turnout.

It was a good theory. It just wasn't known the GOP had that many deplorables in the party.

Apologies for "50%" indeed.

 

[sazzy]

Off topic. What the fuck is up with this orange cursor on all these screenshots lately?

sometimes i get lazy and forget to move the cursor out of the way while greenshotting

KDE is a desktop skin for Linux operating systems and I guess somebody decided he wanted an orange cursor?

yep

 

[Tal Shiar Agent]

People want the house at this point and reassurances on the senate. I would hope no one is panicking about the presidential race.

I'm going to be permanently apprehensive until January 5th, or at least to the unlikely event Trump concedes.

Not panicky, just wary.

 

[Zukkoyaki]

The MU poll was conducted before Trump took the shackles off and openly started blasting the GOP.

 

[NYCmetsfan]

Yeah it is pre-tapes/debates, but that is disturbing to me.

Its elderly people who aren't working.

Are you picking a phone up after you're shift or at work from an unknown number?

I'm sure many more weekdays have that kind of number vs. weekends isn't that why a lot of polls straddle the weekend

 

[Basileus777]

How could people possibly be panicking right now

Somehow Feingold is going to collapse and lose despite Hillary being up fairly large in Wisconsin!

 

[Loudninja]

The theory was that it would discourage GOP turnout.

Perhaps some people were hoping that Trump telling his followers to not vote for republicans down ballot would have an effect.

Ah I see.

Still too early too early for results like that.

 

[Pixieking]

Was Pussygate tape Friday evening or afternoon, in the US? You would think that if it were the evening, the effect wouldn't be seen til the Saturday+Sunday.

 

[TumblingHippo]

Trump really sounds like he's going nuclear. Wonder if he'll stick to his heated script, or will he get caught up in the emotion of it and say something that'll really bite him.

 

[NeoXChaos]

Somehow Feingold is going to collapse and lose despite Hillary being up fairly large in Wisconsin!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Wisconsin,_2012

Volatility but she won by 6 mirroring Obama.

 

[Basileus777]

Pussygate is not affecting downballot and WI had H and D tied before it.

It's way too early to tell what the effect downticket is. If polls next week show little change then you can say that.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Wisconsin,_2012

Volatility but she won by 7.

I was being sarcastic.

 

[hipsterpants]

I'm just dealing with the depression of being reminded my state is a shithole. At least I'll end up living in one of the three places that voted Obama in 2012.

 

[NYCmetsfan]

Was Pussygate tape Friday evening or afternoon, in the US? You would think that if it were the evening, the effect wouldn't be seen til the Saturday+Sunday.

late afternoon? like 3-4pm I think? maybe 2?

 

[Wiz]

Trump really sounds like he's going nuclear. Wonder if he'll stick to his heated script, or will he get caught up in the emotion of it and say something that'll really bite him.

Yeah. Shackles are definitely off.

 

[ampere]

Trump on the Commission for Presidential Debates: "I have no respect for that group by the way, I'm done."

https://twitter.com/CandaceSmith_/status/786262723323715584

Time to buy shares of "Trump won't attend all the debates"!

 

[StoOgE]

Pussygate is not affecting downballot and WI had H and D tied before it.

It will. Give it a bit to start altering the LV models in these things.

 

[DontBeThatGuy]

Trump on the Commission for Presidential Debates: "I have no respect for that group by the way, I'm done."

https://twitter.com/CandaceSmith_/status/786262723323715584

Time to buy shares of "Trump won't attend all the debates"!

We need some good oppo to make him say fuck it, and then unleash the worst shit afterwards.

 

[Basileus777]

Whoever said that this place is the human version of the Nowcast was right. Stop swinging so much on every single poll, give it time for the effects to sink in, and then look at the preponderance of polls to see what's happening.