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PoliGAF 2016 |OT12| The last days of the Republic

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M

Manmademan

Member
StoOgE said:
MI and PA are trending Republican but are decades away from being in play, and LOTS could change between now and then.

OH and WI scare me more, that said we have paths to victory that do not include them and with FL, NC, VA, CO and NV swinging Dem we are ok nationally. NC, AZ and GA coming along are nice buffers as well.

But we need to start making real inroads in those three states in the next two election cycles.
Click to expand...

no we aren't. Where do people come up with this stuff?

2004: (Kerry/Bush)

Popular vote 2,938,095 2,793,847
Percentage 50.92% 48.42%

2008: (Obama/McCain)

Popular vote 3,276,363 2,655,885
Percentage 54.47% 44.15%

2012: (Obama/Romney)

Popular vote 2,990,274 2,680,434
Percentage 51.97% 46.59%


2012 was a weak year but Obama still outperformed kerry in 04, and Clinton is polling around Obama's 2008 numbers.

The center of the state where the republicans are has a declining population. Steel is dead, coal is dead. All of the growth is in the pittsburgh and philadelphia metro areas, which are younger, more diverse, and more educated than the rest of the state and trend heavily democratic.
 
B

brianmcdoogle

Member
I have some newspaper questions for you all if you don't mind me asking.

I was looking to subscribe to the Washington Post, but I'm a bit confused. It's 15 a month on the old iPad app, 10 on the new iPad app, and I've seen multiple people talk at times that you can get a full year for much cheaper than that. What's the difference between the old and new app, and is there a cheaper way to get a full year than 10/15 a month?
 
K

kess

Member
Manmademan said:
2012 was a weak year but Obama still outperformed kerry in 04, and Clinton is polling around Obama's 2008 numbers.

The center of the state where the republicans are has a declining population. Steel is dead, coal is dead. All of the growth is in the pittsburgh and philadelphia metro areas, which are younger, more diverse, and more educated than the rest of the state and trend heavily democratic.
Click to expand...

Democrats also won the Governorship, higher state offices, and swept the State Supreme Court last midterm
 
B

Biggest-Geek-Ever

Member
Beer Monkey said:
This Fahrenthold business on the foundation is far from a nothingburger. It's peeling back the onion on decades of self-dealing, taking foundation dollars and using it to buy memberships, dinners, and paying settlements that ultimately will total up in the millions of dollars of value. It's major fraud.
Click to expand...
It's a fraud if he doesn't win the Pulitzer, as well.
 
F

Fragamemnon

Member
The problem with the Trump foundation stuff is that it's hard to unwind before the election is over, after which no one cares unless Donald goes to the slammer for it.

Great read on the election here in blog format: not one of those 'who will win X state/races" but stepping back and looking at the bigger picture.

https://medium.com/@Chris_arnade/divided-by-meaning-1ab510759ee7#.pg30g5sw9

My addition is that the front group has all the cards to help the kids in the back, but knows their culture and worldview can't be reconciled with the one the kids in the back call their own. The ones in the back resent the way that the kids in the front have absorbed every economic benefit over the last 20 years.

Kids in the front need to deal with income equality and get money to the kids in the back. The kids in the back need to accept that the cosmopolitan cultural and demographic conquest by the kids in the front is unstoppable, and they need to work together with the kids in the front to help them get better outcomes for their residents and children (and some of those outcomes are not going to be easy).
 
M

Manmademan

Member
kess said:
Democrats also won the Governorship, higher state offices, and swept the State Supreme Court last midterm
Click to expand...

This is also true. And assuming Toomey gets blown out (which isn't much of a stretch at this point) we'll be looking at 2 democratic senators and a democratic governor for the first time in god knows how long.

granted, Wolf seemed to get in only because corbett was AWFUL- but odds look decent for his reelection. his most likely competition is house leader mike turzai who is a trainwreck of a human being.
 
P

Paches

Member
Finale Fireworker said:
There are SOOOO many Trump signs in York County, Maine. It's nauseating. They are everywhere I go. It is no longer possible for me to run a local errand without passing several signs.

I know it means nothing, but it sucks. Deplorables are so proud to be deplorable. They scream it.
Click to expand...

I live in Washington but I live in a deep red town. So many Trump signs on businesses that I have now forever banned myself from going to again.

On my way home there is even a reader board with those plastic letters you put on that says "THE DNC IS A NATIONAL DISGRACE" on a businesses parking lot. I will try and take a picture of it sometime, lol.
 
B

Boke1879

Member
Fragamemnon said:
The problem with the Trump foundation stuff is that it's hard to unwind before the election is over, after which no one cares unless Donald goes to the slammer for it.

Great read on the election here in blog format: not one of those 'who will win X state/races" but stepping back and looking at the bigger picture.

https://medium.com/@Chris_arnade/divided-by-meaning-1ab510759ee7#.pg30g5sw9

My addition is that the front group has all the cards to help the kids in the back, but knows their culture and worldview can't be reconciled with the one the kids in the back call their own. The ones in the back resent the way that the kids in the front have absorbed every economic benefit over the last 20 years.

Kids in the front need to deal with income equality and get money to the kids in the back. The kids in the back need to accept that the cosmopolitan cultural and demographic conquest by the kids in the front is unstoppable, and they need to work together with the kids in the front to help them get better outcomes for their residents and children (and some of those outcomes are not going to be easy).
Click to expand...

Honestly. I feel if Donald loses. All of this stuff will be looked into. Him losing the election will be the worst thing to happen to him. His brand will be in shambles and I'd be shocked if no one looked into all of this shit.
 
A

aspiegamer

Member
I vote for |OT13| Look at her, you tell me? I don't think so

All these donation reveals are interesting but it's not murderous. None of these "donations" are things anyone would be surprised that Trump is trying to pull off.
 
L

Loudninja

Member
Boke1879 said:
Honestly. I feel if Donald loses. All of this stuff will be looked into. Him losing the election will be the worst thing to happen to him. His brand will be in shambles and I'd be shocked if no one looked into all of this shit.
Click to expand...
Running for president m might have been the worse decision he ever made.
 
H

Hooligan69

Member
johnsmith said:
Uh. What. This is a new one.

http://www.ksl.com/?sid=41838222&ni...chairmans-claim-of-a-clinton-illegitimate-son
Click to expand...

No, they're just confused by the last name:

clinton.jpg
 
A

Amir0x

Banned
Hoo what a slow few news minutes, boooring. We havent had a outrageous comment from Trump in at least ten to twelve minutes.
 
K

kevin1025

Banned
According to Gabriel Sherman of New York Magazine and NBC News, Trump is dedicated the weekend to debate prep, and will be joined by: Chris Christie, Rudy Giuliani, Reince Priebus, Steve Bannon, Kellyanne Conway, and Jared Kushner.

Also, Joshua Green of Bloomberg is saying that Hannity's show tonight, no one he's talked to at Fox is certain what it entails. Just that it has the Bill accusers.
 
N

nature boy

Member
brianmcdoogle said:
I have some newspaper questions for you all if you don't mind me asking.

I was looking to subscribe to the Washington Post, but I'm a bit confused. It's 15 a month on the old iPad app, 10 on the new iPad app, and I've seen multiple people talk at times that you can get a full year for much cheaper than that. What's the difference between the old and new app, and is there a cheaper way to get a full year than 10/15 a month?
Click to expand...

If you've got Amazon Prime, you get 6 months free and 4.99 thereafter.
 
T

The Technomancer

card-carrying scientician
Qwerty710710 said:
That means states like MI,OH,PA,WI could be going red in the next 4 to 8 years because of these changing demographics . That can be dangerous unless the southern sates like Texas and Georgia can turn purple.
Click to expand...

I don't see it happening in Wisconsin. The bottom dropped out of manufacturing here decades ago, the aftershocks have already been absorbed. Hell, I grew up in Kenosha in the aftermath of all the auto plants closing and its almost completely finished the transformation to tourist town/rich boat haven. All the rural conservative voters are farmers, not miners or factory workers.
 
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