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PoliGAF 2016 |OT12| The last days of the Republic

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B

Bladelaw

Member
Cyanity said:
**In one Ohio poll. Please stop bedwetting.
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I think it's more that even with all this information it's close enough that an outlier poll could still show Trump in the lead. It should be blowouts everywhere, but team ball and anger are strong motivating forces.
 
A

A Link to the Past

Banned
chadskin said:
AHG2uMD.gif
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One of my favorite "Simpson gif for everything" posts lol

Thank you
 
P

plagiarize

Banned
I'm at the airport and I just saw that CNN sign held up. Good lord. As sad as it is that its coming down to people that claim to be sexual assault victims, its also beautiful poetic justice at the same time.

Also, WikiLeaks is garbage.
 
F

FloydtheFathead

Member
Randolph Freelander said:
If Ohio goes for Trump, you, Floyd, bucknut, all of you walk the plank. And Urban Meyer is forced into retirement.
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We'll just get Tom Herman and be set anyway :)

Thanks Randy.

VendettaRed07 said:
We should have run LeBron for the Ohio Senate seat
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He could be Governor

Randolph Freelander said:
Guys, I don't think anyone in here is legitimately panicking about Ohio.

If so, it's still adam's fault.
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I'm so glad it isn't my fault. :)
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
Wait, how did I miss this

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trump's_razor

Trump's Razor is a humorous take on the scientific principle Occam's Razor intended to explain the motivations behind the statements and actions of Donald Trump and his 2016 presidential campaign.

The idea was proposed by writer Josh Marshall on the left-leaning news blog Talking Points Memo. In an article on Trump's choice of vice-presidential running mates, Marshall had suggested "...if I figured out the stupidest possible scenario that could be reconciled with the available facts and went with it, that almost always turned out to be right."[1] A few days later it was stated that, to understand Trump or his campaign, one must "ascertain the stupidest possible scenario that can be reconciled with the available facts and that answer is likely correct."[2] The name of the heuristic was reportedly created between the two articles by writer and friend of Marshall, John Scalzi.[3] Marshall also defined it on Jacob Weisberg's Slate podacast Trumpcast.[4]
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U

User 463088

Banned
Black Mamba said:
The age 60+ in their likely voter turnout looks too high.

Also, I don't get their religion breakdown. Ohio is not 40% evangelical. Why is it not broken down into evangelical, catholic, non-evangelical protestant? Why is it just evangelical or not? How many people are being miscategorized here?

That calls into issue their weighting big time, IMO.
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More so than that. This electorate is supposedly more white than 2004. It's 10% more white than last year. While, I don't have a problem with minority turnout being a bit down, I can't see that large of a shift.
Bladelaw said:
I think it's more that even with all this information it's close enough that an outlier poll could still show Trump in the lead. It should be blowouts everywhere, but team ball and anger are strong motivating forces.
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That's not how real life works.
 
P

PantherLotus

Professional Schmuck
PoliGAF 2016 |OT13| We're going to change this more times than Trump gets accused of sexual assault, so why bother

(not a fan of editing them as often as they are, btw -- it's the smallest, dumbest thing but it changes the tone of the moment it was created and i think that's WRONG)
 
lyrick

lyrick

Member
PantherLotus said:
PoliGAF 2016 |OT13| We're going to change this more times than Trump gets accused of sexual assault, so why bother

(not a fan of editing them as often as they are, btw -- it's the smallest, dumbest thing but it changes the tone of the moment it was created and i think that's WRONG)
Click to expand...

The Change history could/should? be recorded in the OP
 
P

plagiarize

Banned
When Trump attacked Bill Clinton on rape accusations, he built the perfect mouse trap. For himself. Then stepped in it. I still can't wrap my head around how blind you have to be to how you look to do what he does. I really feel that we need a clinical term for this, because its clearly damaging for someone to suffer from what Trump suffers.

Honestly, whatever it is, its clinical. This was the worst response to the tapes possible for someone who had already faced allegations of rape and sexual assault themselves.
 
F

Finale Fireworker

Member
whyamihere said:
In one poll.

Why do we do this, guys. Why do you put yourselves through this.
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As a simple rule, I think anythjng negative outweighs anything positive by a multiple of three. Anytime something negative occurs, the balance is reset to -3 and it takes three more things just to reach zero. It doesn't matter how much positive content is built up, a +15 immediately becomes a -3 if something bad happens.

For example, let's say my girlfriend says "that shirt looks a little small on you."

My personal well-being is now -3.

She tells me I am handsome three times throughout the day, I am now back to 0. I feel nothing at all because I am still dead inside, but things are on the upward trend.

Later, she tells me she can't wait to see me when she gets home. I am now at +1. Life is looking good. A blade of grass has broken through the concrete slab that is my terrible life.

However, she comes home and seems distant. I am afraid she met a powerful lesbian with many mutual interests and they are planning to kill me so that they can be together. I don't blame them one bit. I am now at -3 again. She says she is going to bed early. I am now at -6. I ask her if something is wrong, she says she's fine and goes to bed. I am now at -9.

I preheat the oven to 450 degrees and climb inside. I am now -8 because I am a skeleton and it's good. This is my final score.

Similarly, it takes three positive polls to outweigh one negative one. Even if we have had ten positive polls, one negative poll puts the needle back at -3. It doesn't even have to be a real poll. Somebody could just say "everyone in the Burger King I went to says they're voting for Trump." We are now at -3 again. Actually, we are at -6 because we feel betrayed by BK as well.
 
B

Bowdz

Member
So Iran is sending warships to the Yemeni coast in response to our ship bombing the Houthi radar sites yesterday. I hope this doesn't escalate further.
 
I

Iolo

Member
Finale Fireworker said:
As a simple rule, I think anythjng negative outweighs anything positive by a multiple of three. Anytime something negative occurs, the balance is reset to -3 and it takes three more things just to reach zero. It doesn't matter how much positive content is built up, a +15 immediately becomes a -3 if something bad happens.

For example, let's say my girlfriend says "that shirt looks a little small on you."

My personal well-being is now -3.

She tells me I am handsome three times throughout the day, I am now back to 0. I feel nothing at all because I am still dead inside, but things are on the upward trend.

Later, she tells me she can't wait to see me when she gets home. I am now at +1. Life is looking good. A blade of grass has broken through the concrete slab that is my terrible life.

However, she comes home and seems distant. I am afraid she met a powerful lesbian with many mutual interests and they are planning to kill me so that they can be together. I don't blame them one bit. I am now at -3 again. She says she is going to bed early. I am now at -6. I ask her if something is wrong, she says she's fine and goes to bed. I am now at -9.

I preheat the oven to 450 degrees and climb inside. I am now -8 because I am a skeleton and it's good. This is my final score.

Similarly, it takes three positive polls to outweigh one negative one. Even if we have had ten positive polls, one negative poll puts the needle back at -3. It doesn't even have to be a real poll. Somebody could just say "everyone in the Burger King I went to says they're voting for Trump." We are now at -3 again. Actually, we are at -6 because we feel betrayed by BK as well.
Click to expand...

Yeah, I remember playing this Infocom adventure in the mid 80s.
 
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