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PoliGAF 2016 |OT13| For Queen and Country
- Thread starter aspiegamer
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Chezzymann
Member
McMullin winning makes it a lot harder for trump to win, while it doesnt really hurt hillary much since people werent expecting her to win there in the first place
gutter_trash
Banned
if it humiliates Trump, then I am okay with McMuffin taking them 6 EVs
The rally in an hour just got 32% more interesting.
Oh jojo. This probably confirms that Hillary will be back in attack mode like in the first debate.
Donald Trump will still attack Hillary, but all Hillary needs to do is hit back and that will be enough to deflate his supporters' enthusiasm.
DontBeThatGuy
Member
I mean, this right here, kind of difficult to misunderstand this. Also, the humiliation angle is nice too. (and Hillary won't win)
BotoxAgent
Member
Basileus777
Member
The only thing McMullin can do is send the determination to the House and Trump wins if that happens. Hillary either gets 270 EVs or she loses, McMullin winning Utah doesn't help (or hurt) her in the slightest.
Carpe Carnim
Member
The model-logic doesn't follow though. If Trump needed UT 6 EVs to clinch, that means he wins almost all the swing-states, including FL, CO, and PA.
It's a blow to GOP psyche's but strategically Clinton would have to be experiencing such an unprecedented electoral meltdown, that UT wouldn't matter in the grand scheme of things
Roland_Gunner
Member
McMullin winning Utah doesn't hurt Trump mathematically at all. It still keeps Clinton's numbers down. If she doesn't get to 270 it goes to the House who will pick Trump. Losing Utah does humiliate Trump, which is always nice.
whyamihere
Banned
They're both going to win, and by a lot.
Chezzymann
Member
All it is doing is splitting the trump vote. Hillary already has an easy path to 270 and well beyond that, and it doesn't involve Utah at all. If half the hard red states in the south went mcmullin, it wouldn't stop hillary from getting to 270 at all. It would just be dividing trump's EV's up.
If swing states states like Ohio or florida went third party, or if there were BOTH hard red and hard blue states going third party, i would see your point. But the only one this is hurting is trump whenn hard red states are going third party.
DontBeThatGuy
Member
a healthy reminder to just how minuscule a path to the white house trump actually has.
A Human Becoming
More than a Member
Considering Trump cannot afford to lose any reliably Republican state to win, I don't see how you say losing Utah doesn't hurt him at all.
Because if neither candidate gets 270 then Trump wins, so electoral votes that go to neither candidate still help him.
Basileus777
Member
Because it's how the electoral college works. Denying your opponent doesn't help you, you either clear the threshold of 270 or not. And Hillary loses if it goes to the House.
Chezzymann
Member
So basically y'all are saying that it doesnt hurt trump cause its impossible for him to win anyways?
RastaMentality
Banned
Utah was never going blue! If California went Johnson, Hillary would be way more fucked than Trump.
For real, if we're worried about UT then something is already massively fucked in the Clinton camp. Yall are crazy worrying about McMuffins in Utah. Dems should do their best, but by all measures they're already doing damage there.
Basileus777
Member
Pretty much. The only scenarios in which Trump loses Utah are ones where Clinton easily gets 270 EVs.
Carpe Carnim
Member
Utah is so solid R that in a normal year no one would be even taking anything from Utah into account. Utah House goes R whether or not Trump is running, whether or not McMuffin is running.
Hillary doesn't need Utah to win. Trump needs every red state and then some to win. If Utah doesn't go Trump it's a loss for Trump. The EV is not close enough for this to matter.
No offense taken.
But living and working in Tennessee and having relatives and friends in rural Alabama, I can tell you that the bolded statement above is entirely true. They are not idiots, they largely agree that huge environmental disasters are dangerous to ecosystems, but in my experience they see small impacts as the cost of doing business and largely as collateral damage to having solid paying jobs that can maintain a family and a small town for life like it has for generations.
A Human Becoming
More than a Member
While I get what you're both saying, it sounds like you're placing Utah in an electoral college victory path for Hillary. In almost every scenario she would have passed the 270 EV threshold before winning Utah.
That's not what people are saying, people are pointing out that McMullin taking Utah doesn't help Clinton. It doesn't hurt her if you think she was never going to win, but the point is that denying Trump those electoral votes doesn't put Clinton any closer to the Presidency. Saying that is to correct people who don't understand that if no one gets to 270 then it goes to the House, which is a Trump win (thus making McMullin winning a wash for Trump and for Hillary, it's not bad for him or good for her).
Donald J. Trump
Donald J. Trump‏ @realDonaldTrump
Hillarys Aides Urged Her to Take Foreign Lobbyist Donation And Deal With Attacks:
Wikileaks: Hillary's Aides Urged Her to Take Foreign Lobbyist Donation And Deal With Attacks
newsninja2012.com
Oct 18, 2016, 2:05 PM from Colorado Springs, CO
Wtf is newsninja?
Donald J. Trump‏ @realDonaldTrump
Hillarys Aides Urged Her to Take Foreign Lobbyist Donation And Deal With Attacks:
Wikileaks: Hillary's Aides Urged Her to Take Foreign Lobbyist Donation And Deal With Attacks
newsninja2012.com
Oct 18, 2016, 2:05 PM from Colorado Springs, CO
Wtf is newsninja?
Chezzymann
Member
I guess it kind of makes sense if you approach it in the way that utah going third party makes it possible for no one to get 270 if hillary doesnt do as well as we hope she will. And then thats an actual path to victory for trump (which he doesn't have right now). While if she won utah, as the polls are very close there apparently, then that path to victory for trump is no longer there.
How long until MIMIC makes a thread about this?
Angry Grimace
Two cannibals are eating a clown. One turns to the other and says "does something taste funny to you?"
The House isn't gonna vote for Trump in that circumstance. I think they'd be more likely to just vote for Johnson or McMullin. They don't have any kind of control over Trump, something this election cycle has made readily apparent.
Josh in general has been my Twitter MVP for the election cycle. That and the meteor or comet or whatever it is.
Their site refuses to load for me so who knows about this poll.... from Az HighGround.
http://www.bizjournals.com/phoenix/news/2016/10/17/new-arizona-poll-mccain-up-by-10-clinton-edges.html
Oct. 14, 400 voters, MoE 4.8
Clinton 38.5
Trump 36.5
Johnson 8.3
Stein 2.5
Undecided 14.2
McCain 45.3
Kirkpatrick 35.5
Their Twitter also has Prop 205 to legalize marijuana passing by 4 points.
I'm tempted to donate to Kirkpatrick but I don't know. She's just been so far behind and I don't think anything will hurt McCain enough. Although previous polls (all before the pussy tape) has him at least 15 points up...
http://www.bizjournals.com/phoenix/news/2016/10/17/new-arizona-poll-mccain-up-by-10-clinton-edges.html
Oct. 14, 400 voters, MoE 4.8
Clinton 38.5
Trump 36.5
Johnson 8.3
Stein 2.5
Undecided 14.2
McCain 45.3
Kirkpatrick 35.5
Their Twitter also has Prop 205 to legalize marijuana passing by 4 points.
I'm tempted to donate to Kirkpatrick but I don't know. She's just been so far behind and I don't think anything will hurt McCain enough. Although previous polls (all before the pussy tape) has him at least 15 points up...
Rich Uncle Skeleton
Member
So then it doesn't matter either way, which means we shouldn't pump up McMullin, since that'll only increase Republican turnout and hurt our chances down-ballot. Losing Utah doesn't hurt Trump's chances in the slightest. And he will have plenty to be embarrassed about on Nov 8 without us needing this extra schadenfreude.
NYCmetsfan
Banned
How soon till trumps talks about the hillary hitman/lesbian national enquirer story?
Joe Shlabotnik
Banned
Slow news hour, huh.
UT doesn't help or hurt anyone in a practical sense. McMullin winning is just embarrassing for Trump, and also might signal to the GOP it's a state they have to worry about if they try this shit again in 2020.
UT doesn't help or hurt anyone in a practical sense. McMullin winning is just embarrassing for Trump, and also might signal to the GOP it's a state they have to worry about if they try this shit again in 2020.
Basileus777
Member
They're terrified of Trump's base and it's not as if the House lacks for those sympathetic to Trump. They'll take Trump and complete control of the government over fighting a civil war for McMullin. The House stealing the election from Trump is just another #nevertrump fantasy.
Exactly.
NYCmetsfan
Banned
In the event that no candidate gets 270 Electoral Votes, the House of Representatives picks the president. They will vote for Trump because the GOP controls the majority of states in the House.
Clinton wins if she gets 270+ Electoral Votes.
Trump wins if Clinton does not get 270+ Electoral Votes.
You could have a scenario where Clinton gets denied 270 EV's, and somehow McMullin or Johnson somehow also deny Trump 270 EV's. In that scenario, Trump still wins. This is why any vote for a third party or independent is effectively a vote for Trump. Third parties only hurt Clinton, not Trump.
Hooligan69
Member
This! So much this! Fucking bury him!! Get fucked Trump!
He needs to get so utterly clobbered, becoming a political pariah so that anyone left supporting him is ostracized as well, hopefully completely fracturing the party. In the wreckage, there will be the smaller Alt-right, and a more moderate GOP, if you can call them that as they haven't been moderate in over a decade.
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