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PoliGAF 2016 |OT13| For Queen and Country
- Thread starter aspiegamer
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It's been 24 years since Bill was governor there and Hillary was only his First Lady. Also, Republicans still didn't have complete dominance over southern politics back then as they do now. There are few voters left that remember Clinton's governorship anyway.
Umm thats alot of options lol
DrForester
Kills Photobucket
And that's only about half of them....
whyamihere
Banned
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Damn It would be interesting to see the split.
Suikoguy
I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
California probably still has a longer ballot since it has 17 amendments.
Must be easy to get on the CO ballot for President?
Black Mamba
Member
You do want polls right before the debate to see if there's a change, though.
A stupid poll would be one coming out Thursday morning.
Holy fuck that is genius/hilarious.
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articl...m-liberty-university-s-student-newspaper.html
I like how these political Christian evangelicals are being exposed for the shitbags that they are
Ignatz Mouse
Banned
Illinois is pretty gerrymandered.
THE MEDIA IS RIGGING THE ELECTION!
Is this supposed to throw Clinton off her game?
His campaign has already told us.
Their goal is to be as nasty as possible in the hopes that the media will behave predictably and characterize this as a messy, negative election where BOTH SIDES! are equally participating in the mud slinging, and while Trump voters will stay energized, sensitive Clinton voters will throw their hands up and stay home.
Obama's brother said this about Gaddafi in Libya:
No wonder he gets along with Trump. Trump was a big fan of Gaddafi too.
Anyway, this means we can look forward to "There's Pat Smith! She lost her son in Benghazi Hillary, because of you!"
And now "Your idea to go into Libya was a disaster, even Obama's half-brother knows it, he's in this audience tonight!"
I'm honestly thinking of just skipping this debate and not watch, just follow your reactions, maybe.
No wonder he gets along with Trump. Trump was a big fan of Gaddafi too.
Anyway, this means we can look forward to "There's Pat Smith! She lost her son in Benghazi Hillary, because of you!"
And now "Your idea to go into Libya was a disaster, even Obama's half-brother knows it, he's in this audience tonight!"
I'm honestly thinking of just skipping this debate and not watch, just follow your reactions, maybe.
Colorado sends its regards...
I love that the Prohibition Party is still around. That's some commitment.
To alcohol! The cause of and solution to all of life's problems.
DrForester
Kills Photobucket
The more I think about it, the more I come to the conclusion that the only impact the "rigged" rhetoric from Trump will have on the election itself is that it will depress his own voter turnout e.g. if the election is rigged, why bother?
Nobody on the Clinton or independent side is buying it. And I don't really think we'll see much in the way of voter intimidation at the polls either, so don't expect a meaningful impact there (at least, no more shenanigans than usual).
Post election is a different story as I'm sure there will be widespread outrage at the outcome from Trump supporters, and whatever media, legal, political fallout occurs from Trump not cleanly conceding if at all. But overall I think continuing down the "rigged" path only hurts Trump himself for November 8th.
Nobody on the Clinton or independent side is buying it. And I don't really think we'll see much in the way of voter intimidation at the polls either, so don't expect a meaningful impact there (at least, no more shenanigans than usual).
Post election is a different story as I'm sure there will be widespread outrage at the outcome from Trump supporters, and whatever media, legal, political fallout occurs from Trump not cleanly conceding if at all. But overall I think continuing down the "rigged" path only hurts Trump himself for November 8th.
titiklabingapat
Member
Can anyone give me a link to explain why the gerrymander might backfire on the Republicans,especially in a wave election? I'd be interested to learn more.
Black Mamba
Member
Holy shit, Laurence Kotlikoff is running for President? LMAO, the Fair Tax nutcase economist.
Manmademan
Member
I can see Trump just going full on MASTER TROLL and just saying "Obama backs me on this and says you should be in jail! and he's in the audience tonight supporting me!" without clarifying which Obama he's talking about
Obama's half brother oh no! Now Obama will never win reelection!
Sorry, but this seems entirely beyond Trump to be that clever.
I'd wager he points to Obama's half brother in the crowd stating 'See even he agrees with me!' and the camera pans to him only to confuse literally everyone in America. Trump pushed out name after name during the town hall expecting people to know who the fuck they were like if we all read breitbart on the daily. The man is dumb as a rock.
Sorry, but this seems entirely beyond Trump to be that clever.
I'd wager he points to Obama's half brother in the crowd stating 'See even he agrees with me!' and the camera pans to him only to confuse literally everyone in America. Trump pushed out name after name during the town hall expecting people to know who the fuck they were like if we all read breitbart on the daily. The man is dumb as a rock.
Goddamn,I do wont how man people in total are actually running for president.
A Link to the Past
Banned
Is Trump really that stupid that he would try to bring up Libya? Couldn't Hillary literally just quote him word-for-word of his own personal blog where he supported invading Libya?
yes yes
StopMakingSense
Member
Because in order to secure more R seats, gerrymandering will decrease R representation from heavily R areas to make multiple R seats.
Think taking a R+10, and one neck and neck district, you can spread those Rs to make it 2 R+5 districts.
RustyNails
Member
TermLimitTrump wants 6 years for House members and 12 for Senators.
They worked it so that all the democrats were like in 1-4 districts and would win with 80% dem vote while the republican district got double to triple that with 50-55% of the vote.
A wave election where we see depressed Republican turnout throughout the whole nation could flip a lot of gerrymandered republican districts sitting normally at 51-55% republican
StopMakingSense
Member
Irrespective of feelings about term limits, that is insane.
Black Mamba
Member
Generally, what you try to do is put as many of a certain demographic, we'll call Dem-leaners into a few districts as possible. When you do that, the result is a lot of districts with a GOP lean but not overtly GOP.
For instance, a district in 2012 might have gone to the GOP candidate +6. In an election where the GOP candidate would win, it might be +10.
What you do is try to set up as many districts as possible where you believe you should be able to win without an unforseen collapse. They're GOP safe but not heavily GOP (you can reverse the parties of course).
Let's say a state is 50/50 with 10 seats. You give the Dems 2 districts that are 80/20 Dem/GOP, then 7 districts that are 55/45 GOP, and 1 that is 75/25 GOP or something of that nature.
edit: to answer a backfire, if there is a wave, those suddenly leaning GOP districts start losing and instead of a normal 50/50 split, they get creamed.
Suikoguy
I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
We briefly discussed it earlier. I've yet to see any compelling arguments that term limits will do anything good.
Edit: Wait, as the length of the terms, or the total servable years?
NYCmetsfan
Banned
And he'd deny it of course, even if he had said it 5 minutes earlier.
I'm surprised it isn't in a boxing ring.
CNN was airing commercials for it and they had the voice over from the movie/television guy calling it FIGHT OF THE CENTURY or something to that effect.
Dems are "locked out" of gerrymandered districts up to a certain point. If there is enough of a wave election, the dam breaks and a bunch of districts go blue at once.
Democratic voters are mostly urban, right? So, they slice Democratic districts and mix them (gerrymander) up with mostly Republican suburban neighborhoods and rural areas so as to dilute the power of Democratic voters in the cities.
Problem is, what happens when even suburbs start going blue or turnout is highest from Democratic voters? Diluting a voting bloc goes both ways, so now previously "safe" gerrymandered districts will be endangered because they also don't have 100% Republican voters.
Everytime that announcer comes on and I here some version of "IT ALL COMES DOWN TO THIS" I drink myself into a coma.
Manmademan
Member
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...ig-gerrymander-could-backfire-in-a-major-way/
the short story here is that to pack democrats into the fewest number of heavily democratic districts possible, the GOP had to dilute heavy republican districts to turn competitive "toss up" seats into "safe republican."
Think of it as having one R +10 district, one R +1 district- and redrawing lines so you have an R+6 and an R+5 district.
ordinarily these would be "safe republican" seats, and democrats would have a hell of a time flipping a seat that USED to be competitive.
in a wave election though where you inexplicably end up with democrats with a +8 or +9 turnout, BOTH republican seats end up getting wiped out instead of just the one that would have flipped otherwise.
they've created a ton of seats that are vulnerable to getting flipped, and eliminated a lot of their "heavily republican" seats that could stand up to that kind of wave.
There was talk of the table but last week at some point I remember it being news on CNN that they're back to lecterns.
whyamihere
Banned
Interesting that they're doing Georgia instead of Arizona.
cartoon_soldier
Member
That's right 'It all comes down to this' was what they were saying to dramatic ass music.
Black Mamba
Member
It was posted earlier. Trump was at 38, now 39. In other words, no change.
User 463088
Banned
You don't recall correctly. It's literally 1 point difference.
NYCmetsfan
Banned
Equador got hillary's back!
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
titiklabingapat
Member
Thanks for the gerrymander explanation guys. So even if the Democrats win in 2016, they will most likely lose the majority in 2018. Hopefully they ram as much legislation as much as possible and then run on that with the expectation that they will lose. Maybe, just maybe,people will see what a working government is like...
But knowing Democrats and liberals, they will probably get cold feet again and try to neuter many of these legislations like what happened to Obamacare and then run away from thier own sitting president in 2018 and lose anyway.
But knowing Democrats and liberals, they will probably get cold feet again and try to neuter many of these legislations like what happened to Obamacare and then run away from thier own sitting president in 2018 and lose anyway.
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