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PoliGAF 2016 |OT13| For Queen and Country
- Thread starter aspiegamer
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Right, the evidence came later when the polls showed he was going to be the nominee.
There was, plenty of evidence. That's a damn myth fools like Nate Silver bought into.
Only if you pulled a Nate silver and ignored all polling.
Bruce Springsteen
Member
All I'm saying is not I'm writing him off till the election is over and done
Basileus777
Member
He'd flip over the podium and denounce crooked Hillary as a Pharisee.
eBay Huckster
Member
there was never evidence saying obama would a) be the nominee or 2) win by 7.5% in 2008 when he announced his candidacy, that doesn't mean there wasn't evidence he'd win by about that margin by late october
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
"Disorganized labor" or some shit like that.
biosnake20
Member
Holy shit the brexit dude nigel is on CNN right now
TheLostBigBoss
Banned
Wow that's like the most insane logic I've seen in a while.
Ignatz Mouse
Banned
Hypothetical: Would you put money on it? At what odds? PredictIt has him at 20% and I think that's way too high.
I might not have to. Chris Wallace will "ask questions" at the debate, then you can get mad at him.
TestOfTide
Banned
No.
Even if the Far Left isn't as blatantly anti-diversity as the far right, they seem to always ask for and say many of the same things as the far right:
- Brexit
- Isolationist trade policy
- Isolationist foreign policy
- "Burn down the establishment they are all corrupt"
- "You're all being too mean to Russia."
- "Hillary Clinton is worse than Donald Trump".
- "Fuck the NSA, but I love Wikileaks for hacking private emails."
The only reason they aren't as big a problem as the far right is because they don't have the same amount of people as the far right, but if there were as many far left people as there are currently far right people you can bet they would be just as big of a problem.
sunshine and gasoline
Banned
Video of HIllary raping a young boy and then having him killed?
Was there evidence that he would win 20 days before the end of the primary?
If anything, Trump's chance to pivot was the 2nd debate when Anderson Cooper asked Donald about his words in the Access Hollywood tape.
Instead of taking a moment to apologize to the American people for his words, he instead treats the entire subject as a joke and then hard pivots to ISIS fear mongering.
This man is barely able to form a complete sentence and has shown a proclivity to pivoting to his right rather than the center.
Instead of taking a moment to apologize to the American people for his words, he instead treats the entire subject as a joke and then hard pivots to ISIS fear mongering.
This man is barely able to form a complete sentence and has shown a proclivity to pivoting to his right rather than the center.
eBay Huckster
Member
chris wallace will "ask questions" at the debate, clinton will give 1-minute answers that basically neutralize them for people who don't have raging hateboners for her, and trump will melt down again by debate's end
we've been through this twice and i was right both goddamn times
we've been through this twice and i was right both goddamn times
gutter_trash
Banned
he ruined one country, now he is about to ruin another
TheLostBigBoss
Banned
and then it gets answered, and we move on for another 86 minutes of other stuff and everyone forgets about it, debate ends, after debate is about Clinton winning the final debate and Trump is done.
I'm sure there will be plenty of time to ask questions between now and the election.
Bruce Springsteen
Member
I still give him a 25% shot, his core base will never change their mind on him, so he will always have that
sazzy
Member
for someone who loves the UK so much, he sure doesn't spend that much time there
Then Hillary wins again and you'll just continue to "ask questions" until the end of time.
aspiegamer
Member
Aah yes, we can only pray that electing Trump would be another Brexit! One third of our territory would vote to secede and the global economy would tank in 5 seconds if the US dollar lost 10-20% of its value overnight.
I'm not sure there were many national polls run since he entered the race where he didn't lead. Were they any at all, ever?
25%? Wow.
By all means, show me a map to 270 that looks plausible for him based on any recent polling.
Or are we just going by "our gut"?
TestOfTide
Banned
Oh yeah that reminds me. Anyone who is claiming that the far left isn't a problem, go look at the UK where part of the reason for the successful rise of the far right is the stupid purity politics of the far left there.
Spoiled Milk
Banned
The one that took a honeymoon to the Soviet Union?
But, as people have said before, his core base is not enough to win a presidency.
Having 35-40% of the vote doesn't matter when Hillary has the other 60% and it's majority rules.
Joe Shlabotnik
Banned
I'll put this stark warning next to your other one about the Chelsea bombing being the work of an active terrorist cell in NYC.
Hey 50%+ of Republicans like Putin now
It seems there were some very early in the race, but it Trump went on a glide path starting in mid-March.
The presidential race has been even less volatile than that and has shown him losing the entire time.
This.
Trump hasn't been totally ineffective in his attacks against Hillary's experience and positions on trade. But those attacks collapse as soon as Hillary swats them away and she baits him with something.
Hope we get a repeat of the first debate. There are indeed dangers for Hillary, as Trump has nothing to lose and will attack relentlessly, but Hillary also knows this and I hope she has quick answers to everything from the Podesta emails to the stupid DOJ and State Department non-story, and pivots to throwing Trump off balance.
But it's not going to be "fun". It's going to be just as horrible or worse than Debate 2.
gutter_trash
Banned
the Left being disjointed, disorganized and ideological is also the cause of Jeremy Corbyn being tepid and soft during the Remain campaign
some believe that Corbyn secretly wanted Leave to win because of his own Far-Left anti-trade beliefs
Spoiled Milk
Banned
Got me there lol
eBay Huckster
Member
yeah, by no means is this debate going to be "fun" in any regard
my live posts on social media might be, but that's because i'm gonna be a river of snark
(this is gonna be closer to debate 1 than debate 2, though, just because the format's closer)
my live posts on social media might be, but that's because i'm gonna be a river of snark
(this is gonna be closer to debate 1 than debate 2, though, just because the format's closer)
SirClinksAlot
Member
Sent my ballot off here today in Arizona.
+1 Hillary
+1 Kirkpatrick
+1 Heinz
Too bad Kirkpatrick and Heinz are most likely gonna lose. I really hate McCain and Mcsally.
+1 Hillary
+1 Kirkpatrick
+1 Heinz
Too bad Kirkpatrick and Heinz are most likely gonna lose. I really hate McCain and Mcsally.
whyamihere
Banned
I gotta say, I think the low point in terms of the pit in my stomach was when Trump did the press conference before debate 2. It can't get worse than that.
Thaedolus
Member
What a terribly inaccurate comparison
If i had a core base on a million people that doesn't increase my chances of winning.
Basileus777
Member
You mean he was going to lose by a noticeable margin anyway? You're probably right!
"Barack's half brother has informed me that the President told him that he couldn't believe he got elected after being born in Kenya. This is all rigged. Also Hillary sexually assaulted Benjamin Ghazi."
Bruce Springsteen
Member
HanShotFirst
Member
Could someone explain why the House margins in 2008 were larger (D-53.2 R-42.6) than the President race(D-52.9 R-45.7) while in 2012 the House margins where tighter than the president race. (House: D-48.8 R-47.6) (President D-51.1 R-47.7)
Knuckle Sandwich
Member
Here's a plug for the latest Trumpcast. Aimee Mann is on and she wrote a song from Trump's point of view. I love her so much. 
http://www.slate.com/articles/podcasts/trumpcast/2016/10/the_song_inside_donald_trump_s_head.html
http://www.slate.com/articles/podcasts/trumpcast/2016/10/the_song_inside_donald_trump_s_head.html
Redistricting in 2011 and voter ID laws.
Basileus777
Member
Incumbency factor. House incumbents have a large advantage and there were a lot more Democratic incumbents in 2008.
Redistricting doesn't change overall vote.
AntraxSuicide
Banned
While I'm a staunch federalist, some things will forever belong to the states, and there's no fixing places like Kansas and Mississippi. Here in MS, we voted down a law that would force the govt to fund the schools!
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